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How to Start Investing.

It is never too soon to start investing. Investing is the smartest way to secure your financial future and to begin letting your money make more money for you. Investing is not just for people who have plenty of spare cash. On the contrary, anyone can (and should) invest. You can get started with just a little bit of money and a lot of know-how. By formulating a plan and familiarizing yourself with the tools available, you can quickly learn how to start investing.

Part 1 Getting Acquainted with Different Investment Vehicles.
1. Make sure you have a safety net. Holding some money in reserve is a good idea because (a) if you lose your investment you'll have something to fall back on, and (b) it will allow you to be a bolder investor, since you won't be worried about risking every penny you own.
Save between three and six months' worth of expenses. Call it your emergency fund, set aside for large, unexpected expenses (job loss, medical expenses, auto accident, etc.). This money should be in cash or some other form that's very conservative and immediately available.
Once you have an emergency fund established, you can start to save for your long-term goals, like buying a home, retirement, and college tuition.
If your employer offers a retirement plan, this is a great vehicle for saving, because it can save on your tax bill, and your employer may contribute money to match some of your own contributions, which amounts to "free" money for you.
If you don't have a retirement plan through your workplace, most employees are allowed to accumulate tax-deferred savings in a traditional IRA or a Roth IRA. If you are self-employed, you have options like a SEP-IRA or a "SIMPLE" IRA. Once you've determined the type of account(s) to set up, you can then choose specific investments to hold within them.
Get current on all your insurance policies. This includes auto, health, homeowner's/renter's, disability, and life insurance. With luck you'll never need insurance, but it's nice to have in the event of disaster.
2. Learn a little bit about stocks. This is what most people think of when they consider "investing." Put simply, a stock is a share in the ownership of a business, a publicly-held company. The stock itself is a claim on what the company owns — its assets and earnings.  When you buy stock in a company, you are making yourself part-owner. If the company does well, the value of the stock will probably go up, and the company may pay you a "dividend," a reward for your investment. If the company does poorly, however, the stock will probably lose value.
The value of stock comes from public perception of its worth. That means the stock price is driven by what people think it's worth, and the price at which a stock is purchased or sold is whatever the market will bear, even if the underlying value (as measured by certain fundamentals) might suggest otherwise.
A stock price goes up when more people want to buy that stock than sell it.  Stock prices go down when more people want to sell than buy. In order to sell stock, you have to find someone willing to buy at the listed price. In order to buy stock, you have to find someone selling their stock at a price you like.
The job of a stockbroker is to pair up buyers and sellers.
"Stocks" can mean a lot of different things. For example, penny stocks are stocks that trade at relatively low prices, sometimes just pennies.
Various stocks are bundled into what's called an index, like the Dow Jones Industrials, which is a list of 30 high-performing stocks. An index is a useful indicator of the performance of the whole market.
3. Familiarize yourself with bonds. Bonds are issuances of debt, similar to an IOU. When you buy a bond, you're essentially lending someone money.  The borrower ("issuer") agrees to pay back the money (the "principal") when the life ("term") of the loan has expired. The issuer also agrees to pay interest on the principal at a stated rate. The interest is the whole point of the investment. The term of the bond can range from months to years, at the end of which period the borrower pays back the principal in full.
Here's an example: You buy a five-year municipal bond for $10,000 with an interest rate of 2.35%. Thus, you lend the municipality $10,000. Each year the municipality pays you interest on your bond in the amount of of 2.35% of $10,000, or $235. After five years the municipality pays back your $10,000. So you've made back your principal plus a profit of $1175 in interest (5 x $235).
Generally the longer the term of the bond, the higher the interest rate. If you're lending your money for a year, you probably won't get a high interest rate, because one year is a relatively short period of risk. If you're going to lend your money and not expect it back for ten years, however, you will be compensated for the higher risk you're taking, and the interest rate will be higher. This illustrates an axiom in investing: The higher the risk, the higher the return.
4. Understand the commodities market. When you invest in something like a stock or a bond, you invest in the business represented by that security. The piece of paper you get is worthless, but what it promises is valuable. A commodity, on the other hand, is something of inherent value, something capable of satisfying a need or desire. Commodities include pork bellies (bacon), coffee beans, oil, natural gas, and potash, among many other items. The commodity itself is valuable, because people want and use it.
People often trade commodities by buying and selling "futures." A future is simply an agreement to buy or sell a commodity at a certain price sometime in the future.
Futures were originally used as a "hedging" technique by farmers. Here's a simple example of how it works: Farmer Joe grows avocados. The price of avocados, however, is typically volatile, meaning that it goes up and down a lot. At the beginning of the season, the wholesale price of avocados is $4 per bushel. If Farmer Joe has a bumper crop of avocados but the price of avocados drops to $2 per bushel in April at harvest, Farmer Joe may lose a lot of money.
Joe, in advance of harvest as insurance against such a loss, sells a futures contract to someone. The contract stipulates that the buyer of the contract agrees to buy all of Joe's avocados at $4 per bushel in April.
Now Joe has protection against a price drop. If the price of avocados goes up, he'll be fine because he can sell his avocados at the market price. If the price of avocados drops to $2, he can sell his avocados at $4 to the buyer of the contract and make more than other farmers who don't have a similar contract.
The buyer of a futures contract always hopes that the price of a commodity will go up beyond the futures price he paid. That way he can lock in a lower-than-market price. The seller hopes that the price of a commodity will go down. He can buy the commodity at low (market) prices and then sell it to the buyer at a higher-than-market price.
5. Know a bit about investing in property. Investing in real estate can be a risky but lucrative proposition. There are lots of ways you can invest in property. You can buy a house and become a landlord. You pocket the difference between what you pay on the mortgage and what the tenant pays you in rent. You can also flip homes. That means you buy a home in need of renovations, fix it up, and sell it as quickly as possible. Real estate can be a profitable vehicle for some, but it is not without substantial risk involving property maintenance and market value.
Other ways of gaining exposure to real estate include collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which are mortgages that have been bundled into securitized instruments. These, however, are tools for sophisticated investors: their transparency and quality can vary greatly, as revealed during the 2008 downturn.
Some people think that home values are guaranteed to go up. History has shown otherwise: real estate values in most areas show very modest rates of return after accounting for costs such as maintenance, taxes and insurance. As with many investments, real estate values do invariably rise if given enough time. If your time horizon is short, however, property ownership is not a guaranteed money-maker.
Property acquisition and disposal can be a lengthy and unpredictable process and should be viewed as a long-term, higher-risk proposition. It is not the type of investment that is appropriate if your time horizon is short and is certainly not a guaranteed investment.
6. Learn about mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Mutual funds and ETFs are similar investment vehicles in that each is a collection of many stocks and/or bonds (hundreds or thousands in some cases). Holding an individual security is a concentrated way of investing – the potential for gain or loss is tied to a single company – whereas holding a fund is a way to spread the risk across many companies, sectors or regions. Doing so can dampen the upside potential but also serves to protect against the downside risk.
Commodities exposure is usually achieved by holding futures contracts or a fund of futures contracts. Real estate can be held directly (by owning a home or investment property) or in a real estate investment trust (REIT) or REIT fund, which holds interests in a number of residential or commercial properties.

Part 2 Mastering Investment Basics.
1. Buy undervalued assets ("buy low, sell high"). If you're talking about stocks and other assets, you want to buy when the price is low and sell when the price is high. If you buy 100 shares of stock on January 1st for $5 per share, and you sell those same shares on December 31st for $7.25, you just made $225. That may seem a paltry sum, but when you're talking about buying and selling hundreds or even thousands of shares, it can really add up.
How do you tell if a stock is undervalued? You need to look at a company closely — its earnings growth, profit margins, its P/E ratio, and its dividend yield — instead of looking at just one aspect and making a decision based on a single ratio or a momentary drop in the stock's price.
The price-to-earnings ratio is a common way of determining if a stock is undervalued. It simply divides a company's share price by its earnings. For example, if Company X is trading at $5 per share, with earnings of $1 per share, its price-to-earnings ratio is 5. That is to say, the company is trading at five times its earnings. The lower this figure, the more undervalued the company may be. Typical P/E ratios range between 15 and 20, although ratios outside that range are not uncommon. Use P/E ratios as only one of many indications of a stock's worth.
Always compare a company to its peers. For example, assume you want to buy Company X. You can look at Company X's projected earnings growth, profit margins, and price-to-earnings ratio. You would then compare these figures to those of Company X's closest competitors. If Company X has better profit margins, better projected earnings, and a lower price-to-earnings ratio, it may be a better buy.
Ask yourself some basic Question : s: What will the market be for this stock in the future? Will it look bleaker or better? What competitors does this company have, and what are their prospects? How will this company be able to earn money in the future? These should help you come to a better understanding of whether a company's stock is under- or over-valued.
2. Invest in companies that you understand. Perhaps you have some basic knowledge regarding some business or industry. Why not put that to use? Invest in companies or industries that you know, because you're more likely to understand revenue models and prospects for future success. Of course, never put all your eggs in one basket: investing in only one -- or a very few -- companies can be quite risky. However, wringing value out of a single industry (whose workings you understand) will increase your chances of being successful.
For example, you may hear plenty of positive news on a new technology stock. It is important to stay away until you understand the industry and how it works. The principle of investing in companies you understand was popularized by renowned investor Warren Buffett, who made billions of dollars sticking only with business models he understood and avoiding ones he did not.
3. Avoid buying on hope and selling on fear. It's very easy and too tempting to follow the crowd when investing. We often get caught up in what other people are doing and take it for granted that they know what they're talking about. Then we buy stocks just because other people buy them or sell them when other people do. Doing this is easy. Unfortunately, it's a good way to lose money. Invest in companies that you know and believe in — and tune out the hype — and you'll be fine.
When you buy a stock that everyone else has bought, you're buying something that's probably worth less than its price (which has probably risen in response to the recent demand). When the market corrects itself (drops), you could end up buying high and then selling low, just the opposite of what you want to do. Hoping that a stock will go up just because everyone else thinks it will is foolish.
When you sell a stock that everyone else is selling, you're selling something that may be worth more than its price (which likely has dropped because of all the selling). When the market corrects itself (rises), you've sold low and will have to buy high if you decide you want the stock back.
Fear of losses can prove to be a poor reason to dump a stock.
If you sell based on fear, you may protect yourself from further declines, but you may also miss out on a rebound. Just as you did not anticipate the decline, you will not be able to predict the rebound. Stocks have historically risen over long time frames, which is why holding on to them and not over-reacting to short-term swings is important.
4. Know the effect of interest rates on bonds. Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. When interest rates go up, bond prices go down. When interest rates go down, bond prices go up. Here's why:
Interest rates on bonds normally reflect the prevailing market interest rate. Say you buy a bond with an interest rate of 3%. If interest rates on other investments then go up to 4% and you're stuck with a bond paying 3%, not many people would be willing to buy your bond from you when they can buy another bond that pays them 4% interest. For this reason, you would have to lower the price of your bond in order to sell it. The opposite situation applies when bond market rates are falling.
5. Diversify. Diversifying your portfolio is one of the most important things that you can do, because it diminishes your risk. Think of it this way: If you were to invest $5 in each of 20 different companies, all of the companies would have to go out of business before you would lose all your money. If you invested the same $100 in just one company, only that company would have to fail for all your money to disappear. Thus, diversified investments "hedge" against each other and keep you from losing lots of money because of the poor performance of a few companies.
Diversify your portfolio not only with a good mix of stocks and bonds, but go further by buying shares in companies of different sizes in different industries and in different countries. Often when one class of investment performs poorly, another class performs nicely. It is very rare to see all asset classes declining at the same time.
Many believe a balanced or "moderate" portfolio is one made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Thus, a more aggressive portfolio might have 80% stocks and 20% bonds, and a more conservative portfolio might have 70% bonds and 30% stocks. Some advisors will tell you that your portfolio's percentage of bonds should roughly match your age.
6. Invest for the long run.  Choosing good-quality investments can take time and effort. Not everyone can do the research and keep up with the dynamics of all the companies being considered. Many people instead employ a "buy and hold" approach of weathering the storms rather than attempting to predict and avoid market downturns. This approach works for most in the long term but requires patience and discipline. There are some, however, who choose to try their hand at being a day-trader, which involves holding stocks for a very short time (hours, even minutes). Doing so, however, does not often lead to success over the long term for the following reasons:
Brokerage fees add up. Every time you buy or sell a stock, a middleman known as a broker takes a cut for connecting you with another trader. These fees can really add up if you're making a lot of trades every day, cutting into your profit and magnifying your losses.
Many try to predict what the market will do and some will get lucky on occasion by making some good calls (and will claim it wasn't luck), but research shows that this tactic does not typically succeed over the long term.
The stock market rises over the long term. From 1871 to 2014, the S&P 500's compound annual growth rate was 9.77%, a rate of return many investors would find attractive. The challenge is to stay invested long-term while weathering the ups and downs in order to achieve this average: the standard deviation for this period was 19.60%, which means some years saw returns as high as 29.37% while other years experienced losses as large as 9.83%.  Set your sights on the long term, not the short. If you're worried about all the dips along the way, find a graphical representation of the stock market over the years and hang it somewhere you can see whenever the market is undergoing its inevitable–and temporary–declines.
7. Consider whether or not to short sell. This can be a "hedging" strategy, but it can also amplify your risk, so it's really suitable only for experienced investors. The basic concept is as follows: Instead of betting that the price of a security is going to increase, "shorting" is a bet that the price will drop. When you short a stock (or bond or currency), your broker actually lends you shares without your having to pay for them. Then you hope the stock's price goes down. If it does, you "cover," meaning you buy the actual shares at the current (lower) price and give them to the broker. The difference between the amount credited to you in the beginning and the amount you pay at the end is your profit.
Short selling can be dangerous, however, because it's not easy to predict a drop in price. If you use shorting for the purpose of speculation, be prepared to get burned sometimes. If the stock's price were to go up instead of down, you would be forced to buy the stock at a higher price than what was credited to you initially. If, on the other hand, you use shorting as a way to hedge your losses, it can actually be a good form of insurance.
This is an advanced investment strategy, and you should generally avoid it unless you are an experienced investor with extensive knowledge of markets. Remember that while a stock can only drop to zero, it can rise indefinitely, meaning that you could lose enormous sums of money through short-selling.

Part 3 Starting Out.
1. Choose where to open your account. There are different options available: you can go to a brokerage firm (sometimes also called a wirehouse or custodian) such as Fidelity, Charles Schwab or TD Ameritrade. You can open an account on the website of one of these institutions, or visit a local branch and choose to direct the investments on your own or pay to work with a staff advisor. You can also go directly to a fund company such as Vanguard, Fidelity, or T. Rowe Price and let them be your broker. They will offer you their own funds, of course, but many fund companies (such as the three just named) offer platforms on which you can buy the funds of other companies, too. See below for additional options in finding an advisor.
Always be mindful of fees and minimum-investment rules before opening an account. Brokers all charge fees per trade (ranging from $4.95 to $10 generally), and many require a minimum initial investment (ranging from $500 to much higher).
Online brokers with no minimum initial-investment requirement include Capital One Investing, TD Ameritrade, First Trade, TradeKing, and OptionsHouse.
If you want more help with your investing, there is a variety of ways to find financial advice: if you want someone who helps you in a non-sales environment, you can find an advisor in your area at one of the following sites: letsmakeaplan.org, www.napfa.org, and garrettplanningnetwork.com. You can also go to your local bank or financial institution. Many of these charge higher fees, however, and may require a large opening investment.
Some advisors (like Certified Financial Planners™) have the ability to give advice in a number of areas such as investments, taxes and retirement planning, while others can only act on a client's instructions but not give advice, It's also important to know that not all people who work at financial institutions are bound to the "fiduciary" duty of putting a client's interests first. Before starting to work with someone, ask about their training and expertise to make sure they are the right fit for you.
2. Invest in a Roth IRA as soon in your working career as possible. If you're earning taxable income and you're at least 18, you can establish a Roth IRA. This is a retirement account to which you can contribute up to an IRS-determined maximum each year (the latest limit is the lesser of $5,500 or the amount earned plus an additional $1,000 "catch up" contribution for those age 50 or older). This money gets invested and begins to grow. A Roth IRA can be a very effective way to save for retirement.
You don't get a tax deduction on the amount you contribute to a Roth, as you would if you contributed to a traditional IRA. However, any growth on top of the contribution is tax-free and can be withdrawn without penalty after you turn age 59½ (or earlier if you meet one of the exceptions to the age 59½ rule).
Investing as soon as possible in a Roth IRA is important. The earlier you begin investing, the more time your investment has to grow. If you invest just $20,000 in a Roth IRA before you're 30 years old and then stop adding any more money to it, by the time you're 72 you'll have a $1,280,000 investment (assuming a 10% rate of return). This example is merely illustrative. Don't stop investing at 30. Keep adding to your account. You will have a very comfortable retirement if you do.
How can a Roth IRA grow like this? By compound interest. The return on your investment, as well as reinvested interest, dividends and capital gains, are added to your original investment such that any given rate of return will produce a larger profit through accelerated growth. If you are earning an average compound annual rate of return of 7.2%, your money will double in ten years. (This is known as "the rule of 72.")
You can open a Roth IRA through most online brokers as well as through most banks. If you are using a self-directed online broker, you will simply select a Roth IRA as the type of account while you are registering.
3. Invest in your company's 401(k). A 401(k) is a retirement-savings vehicle into which an employee can direct portions of his or her paychecks and receive a tax deduction in the year of the contributions. Many employers will match a portion of these contributions, so the employee should contribute at least enough to trigger the employer match.
4. Consider investing mainly in stocks but also in bonds to diversify your portfolio. From 1925 to 2011, stocks outperformed bonds in every rolling 25-year period. While this may sound appealing from a return standpoint, it entails volatility, which can be worrisome. Add less-volatile bonds to your portfolio for the sake of stability and diversification. The older you get, the more appropriate it becomes to own bonds (a more conservative investment). Re-read the above discussion of diversification.
5. Start off investing a little money in mutual funds. An index fund is a mutual fund that invests in a specific list of companies of a particular size or economic sector. Such a fund performs similarly to its index, such as the S&P 500 index or the Barclays Aggregate Bond index.
Mutual funds come in different shapes and sizes. Some are actively managed, meaning there is a team of analysts and other experts employed by the fund company to research and understand a particular geographical region or economic sector. Because of this professional management, such funds generally cost more than index funds, which simply mimic an index and don't need much management. They can be bond-heavy, stock-heavy, or invest in stocks and bonds equally. They can buy and sell their securities actively, or they can be more passively managed (as in the case of index funds).
Mutual funds come with fees. There may be charges (or "loads") when you buy or sell shares of the fund. The fund's "expense ratio" is expressed as a percentage of total assets and pays for overhead and management expenses. Some funds charge a lower-percentage fee for larger investments. Expense ratios generally range from as low as 0.15% (or 15 basis points, abbreviated "BPS") for index funds to as high as 2% (200 BPS) for actively managed funds. There may also be a "12b-1" fee charged to offset a fund's marketing expenses.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission states that no evidence exists that higher-fee mutual funds produce better returns than do lower-fee funds. In other words, deal with lower-fee funds.
Mutual funds can be purchased through nearly any brokerage service. Even better is to purchase directly from a mutual fund company. This avoids brokerage fees. Call or write the fund company or visit their website. Opening a fund account is simple and easy. See Invest in Mutual Funds.
6. Consider exchange-traded funds in addition to or instead of mutual funds. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are very similar to mutual funds in that they pool people's money and buy many investments. There are a few key differences.
ETFs can be traded on an exchange throughout the business day just like stocks, whereas mutual funds are bought and sold only at the end of each trading day.
ETFs are typically index funds and do not generate as much in the way of taxable capital gains to pass on to investors as compared with actively managed funds. ETFs and mutual funds are becoming less distinct from each other, and investors need not own both types of investment. If you like the idea of buying and selling fund shares during (rather than at the end of) the trading day, ETFs are a good choice for you.

Part 4 Making the Most of Your Money.
1. Consider using the services of a financial planner or advisor. Many planners and advisors require that their clients have an investment portfolio of at least a minimum value, sometimes $100,000 or more. This means it could be hard to find an advisor willing to work with you if your portfolio isn't well established. In that case, look for an advisor interested in helping smaller investors.
How do financial planners help? Planners are professionals whose job is to invest your money for you, ensure that your money is safe, and guide you in your financial decisions. They draw from a wealth of experience at allocating resources. Most importantly, they have a financial stake in your success: the more money you make under their tutelage, the more money they make.
2. Buck the herd instinct. The herd instinct, alluded to earlier, is the idea that just because a lot of other people are doing something, you should, too.  Many successful investors have made moves that the majority thought were unwise at the time.
That doesn't mean, however, that you should never seek investment advice from other people. Just be wise about choosing the people you listen to. Friends or family members with a successful background in investing can offer worthwhile advice, as can professional advisors who charge a flat fee (rather than a commission) for their help.
Invest in smart opportunities when other people are scared. In 2008 as the housing crisis hit, the stock market shed thousands of points in a matter of months. A smart investor who bought stocks as the market bottomed out enjoyed a strong return when stocks rebounded.
This reminds us to buy low and sell high. It takes courage to buy investments when they are becoming cheaper (in a falling market) and sell those investments when they are looking better and better (a rising market). It seems counter-intuitive, but it's how the world's most successful investors made their money.
3. Know the players in the game.  Which institutional investors think that your stock is going to drop in price and have therefore shorted it? What mutual fund managers have your stock in their fund, and what is their track record? While it helps to be independent as an investor, it's also helpful to know what respected professionals are doing.
There are websites which compile recent opinions on a stock from analysts and expert investors. For example, if you are considering a purchase of Tesla shares, you can search Tesla on Stockchase. It will give you all the recent expert opinions on the stock.
4. Re-examine your investment goals and strategies every so often. Your life and conditions in the market change all the time, so your investment strategy should change with them. Never be so committed to a stock or bond that you can't see it for what it's worth.
While money and prestige may be important, never lose track of the truly important, non-material things in life: your family, friends, health, and happiness.
For example, if you are very young and saving for retirement, it may be appropriate to have most of your portfolio invested in stocks or stock funds. This is because you would have a longer time horizon in which to recover from any big market crashes or declines, and you would be able to benefit from the long-term trend of markets moving higher.
If you are just about to retire, however, having much less of your portfolio in stocks, and a large portion in bonds and/or cash equivalents is wise. This is because you will need the money in the short-term, and as a result you do not want to risk losing the money in a stock market crash right before you need it.

Community Q&A
Question : I have low money, how I can get rich?
Answer : Expect it to take many years to get rich. Follow any or all of the steps outlined above.
Question : How do I find a broker to invest in the stock market?
Answer : There are several discount brokers online who charge a small fee for buying stock for you. There are also stockbrokers in most cities you can deal with in person. They charge a bit more, but they can offer you more personal service and help you choose stocks if you'd like.
Question : What if I have a stock in mind, but don't want a broker/brokerage firm? How do I actually purchase stock from that particular company, immediately?
Answer : Look online for the company's investor-relations department phone number. Call and ask if they offer direct stock purchases. If so, they will give you instructions for purchasing their stock. They may take a credit card, or you can write them a check.
Question : How do I start investing? Do I need an agent? Can Canadians invest in US Stocks?
Answer : Canadians -- and anyone else -- may invest in U.S. stocks. The typical way it's done is through a stockbroker. A good way to start investing is to consult with an experienced, fee-based financial advisor. A fee-based advisor does not make money by convincing you to make a particular investment.
Question : What is the difference between "ex-dividend date" and "record date"?
Answer : A "record date" is the date a dividend distribution is declared, the date at the close of which one must be the shareholder in order to receive the declared dividend. An "ex-dividend date" is typically two business days before the record date. When shares of a stock are sold near the record date of a dividend declaration, the ex-dividend date is the last day on which the seller is clearly entitled to the dividend payment.
Question : Is a financial planner really necesary?
Answer : Not if you can supply your own financial acumen and practical level-headedness. If you are not clueless about finances, or if you're personally acquainted with someone with considerable financial experience to share with you, there's no need to pay for advice. Having said that, however, the more money you want to place at risk, the more a fee-only advisor is worth hiring.
Question : How do I initiate an investment process after I open the account?
Answer : Your broker can explain the process to you. It's just a matter of telling the broker which investment(s) you want to buy. A full-service broker will help you make that decision if you'd like.
Question : I want to buy Exxon stocks right now online. What's the best way?
Answer : See Part 3 of Buy Stocks.
Question : If my company is closing, can I withdraw the 401k without any penalty?
Answer : Your 401k is probably "portable," meaning you can take it with you without penalty if you switch jobs. In your case, you shouldn't have any trouble removing the funds (assuming you plan to deposit them in another similar plan).
Question : Is it OK to connect my stock market account with my savings account?
Answer : Yes, that's a safe place to keep your money while you're not using it to buy stock.

Tips.
One of the most painless and efficient ways to invest is to dedicate a portion of each paycheck to regular contributions to an investment account. Doing so can provide some great advantages:
Dollar-cost averaging: by saving a steady amount every payday, you purchase more shares of an investment when the share price is lower and fewer shares when the price is higher. That keeps the average share price you pay relatively low.
A disciplined savings plan: having a portion withheld from your paycheck is a way of putting money away before you have a chance to spend it and can translate into a consistent habit of saving.
The "miracle" of compound interest: earning interest on previously earned interest is what Albert Einstein called "the eighth wonder of the world." Compounding is guaranteed to make your retirement years easier if you let it work its magic by leaving your money invested and untouched for as long as possible. Many years of compounding can bring astonishingly good results.

Warnings.

If you intend to hire a financial advisor, make sure s/he is a "fiduciary." That's a person who is legally bound to propose investments for you that will benefit you. An advisor who is not a fiduciary may propose investments that will mainly benefit the advisor (not you).
When looking for an advisor, choose one who charges you a flat fee for advice, not one who is paid a commission by the vendor of an investment product. A fee-based advisor will retain you as a happy client only if his/her advice works out well for you. A commission-based advisor's success is based on selling you a product, regardless of how well that product performs for you.
June 04, 2020

Ray Dalio: 3 pieces of advice for how to manage your savings in a coronavirus recession.

By Tom Huddleston Jr.

Though the stock market is on the rebound of late as more and more states reopen, hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio has made it clear that he expects the ongoing coronavirus pandemic to leave behind an economic downturn that could be the worst since the Great Depression.

“We’re not going to go back to normal” once the pandemic subsides, Dalio previously told CNBC Make It, arguing against the idea of a “v-shaped recovery” where the economy would rebound quickly once the country fully reopens.

“Think of the virus as like a tsunami that comes in,” Dalio said. “And if it goes away completely and we never see it again, it still will produce damage, the financial damage ... incomes that are lost, balance sheets that are hurt, restructurings that need to take place. So that will impede the recovery.”

With that in mind, Dalio has advice for Americans worrying about whether or not their savings will keep them afloat should the economy truly take a historic turn for the worse that lasts well beyond 2020.

Though 21% of Americans do not save any of their annual income, according to a 2019 Bankrate survey, for those who do, Dalio offers up three pieces of advice on relatively safe investment strategies to carry you through.

Determine how far your savings will go
First, you need to take a hard look at your savings and calculate how much you need to be “safe and free,” Dalio says.

″[Determine] how many months or years can you get by” based on your current savings and what it would take to ensure you can still have the type of life you’re comfortable leading, he says.

In other words, you should calculate your average, basic expenses — from rent or mortgage payments to food costs and other essential bills that cannot be trimmed or cut out completely — in order to figure out how much money you would need to survive losing a major source of income.

Dalio suggests saving enough to make sure “you’re okay for ‘X’ amount of time,” he says, whether that’s several months, or even a year.

Remember, “you don’t have to have a world of luxury to cover the basics,” he says.

And “when you’ve [calculated] that savings ... cut it in half, just to be conservative,” Dalio says. “Because between taxes, inflation and possible losses in your portfolio, maybe they can add up to half.”

“That’s No. 1. Do those calculations so that you know, if everything is bad, you and your family [are] still good,” Dalio says.

Once you have that amount of your portfolio set aside to feel safe, Dalio says you can start planning how to put the rest of your money to work for you by investing any money that is not part of what you’ve set aside from your expenses.

“I want you to visualize your acceptable worst case scenario and secure that, because once you do, everything else changes and you can have peace of mind that you can take more risk,” Dalio says. “But if you haven’t secured that acceptable picture, you have to make doing that your top priority.”

Diversify your investments
Which brings on Dalio’s second piece of money advice, which is to take the money that you feel comfortable building on and “diversify that portfolio well.” That means spreading your money across different asset classes that can typically be counted on to perform relatively well no matter the economic environment.

“You need to diversify by holding assets that will do well in either a rising or a falling growth environment, or a rising or falling inflation environment, and [you] should diversify by holding international as well as domestic asset classes,” Dalio says.

For instance, the billionaire has been adamant that investors should back “both horses in the race” in terms of the U.S.-China trade war and the two superpowers’ increasing competition for economic growth in recent years.

“I believe Chinese businesses are competitors of American businesses or other business around the world, and that therefore you want to be, if you’re diversified, having bets on both horses in the race,” Dalio said in 2019.

Dalio has also argued against holding onto cash or government bonds at the moment, due to fears that currency inflation could hurt their value over time. “Cash is not going to be a good investment,” he says, adding: “In relation to inflation, it’ll probably lose 2% a year and maybe more.”

Dalio does see gold as a more attractive asset, he says, echoing his sentiments from January, when he said: “I think you have to have a little bit of gold in your portfolio.” Many investors, including billionaire Warren Buffett, tend to look at gold as a relatively safe and steady investment in times of crisis.

Don’t try to time the market
Lastly, Dalio says never try to time the market.

That is “going to be really important.”

In the past, Dalio has said that the “biggest mistake that most people make is to judge what will be good by what has been good lately” in terms of looking at how the stock market has performed recently and when is the best time to buy.

Trying to perfectly time the market is something that even professionals can’t always manage, and the average person will find it extremely difficult to do successfully, Dalio says.

“To do that well you have to beat the pros, who themselves typically can’t do that well.”

Instead, it’s probably a better idea for non-professional investors to take long-term positions in a diversified portfolio that can pay off over time. Otherwise, all investors need to keep in mind the historical cycles and patterns of the economy and stock market.

From bubbles leading into busts, and vice versa, Dalio has always been adamant that those economic cycles tend to repeat themselves and that investors need to learn to avoid thinking along the lines of: ”‘That’s a bad market, and I don’t want any of it,’” Dalio previously told CNBC Make It. That’s because a bear market might actually be the best time to get bargain prices on certain stocks.

After all, a company like Amazon once saw its stock price lost most of its value after the tech bubble burst in the early 2000s, but many of the company’s long-term investors (those who held onto the stock through rough times, or bought it at a nadir) have seen huge gains because they ignored the most recent market trends at the time and took a long-term approach that’s paid off as Amazon is now worth several times what it was even just a decade ago.

August 11, 2020


How to Do Technical Analysis.


Technical analysis evolved from the stock market theories of Charles Henry Dow, founder of the Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow Jones and Company. The goal of technical analysis is to predict the future price of stocks, commodities, futures and other tradeable securities based on past prices and performance of those securities. Technical analysts apply the law of supply and demand to understand how the stock market and other securities exchanges work, identifying trends and profiting from them. The following steps will help you understand technical analysis and how it is applied to choosing stocks and other commodities.

Steps.
1. Understand Dow's theories behind technical analysis. Three of Dow's theories about investments form the underpinnings of technical analysis and serve to guide the technical analyst's approach to financial markets. Those theories are described below with an explanation of how technical analysts interpret them.
Market fluctuations reflect all known information. Technical analysts believe that changes in the price of a security and how well it trades in the market reflect all the available information about that security as garnered from all pertinent sources. Price listings are therefore thought of as fair value. Sudden changes in how a stock trades often precedes major news about the company that issued the stock. Technical analysts don't concern themselves with the price-to-earnings ratio, shareholder equity, return on equity or other factors that fundamental analysts consider.
Price movements can often be charted and predicted. Technical analysts acknowledge that there are periods when prices move randomly, but there are also times when they move in an identifiable trend. Once a trend is identified, it is possible to make money from it, either by buying low and selling high during an upward trend (bull market) or by selling short during a downward trend (bear market). By adjusting the length of time the market is being analyzed, it is possible to spot both short- and long-term trends.
History repeats itself. People don't change their motivations overnight; traders can be expected to react the same way to current conditions as they did in the past when those same conditions occurred. Because people react predictably, technical analysts can use their knowledge of how other traders reacted in the past to profit each time conditions repeat themselves. In this respect, technical analysis differs from "efficient market theory," which ignores the effect that human actions and reactions have on the market.
2. Look for quick results. Unlike fundamental analysis, which looks at balance sheets and other financial data over relatively long periods of time, technical analysis focuses on periods no longer than a month and sometimes as short as a few minutes. It is suited to people who seek to make money from securities by repeatedly buying and selling them rather than those who invest for the long term.
3. Read charts to spot price trends. Technical analysts look at charts and graphs of security prices to spot the general direction in which prices are headed, overlooking individual fluctuations. Trends are classified by type and duration.
Up trends, characterized by highs and lows that become progressively higher.
Down trends are seen when successive highs and lows are progressively lower.
Horizontal trends in which successive highs and lows fail to change much from previous highs and lows.
Trend lines are drawn to connect successive highs to each other and successive lows to each other. This makes spotting trends easy. Such trend lines are often called channel lines.
Trends are classified as major trends when they last longer than a year, as intermediate trends when they last at least a month but less than a year, and as near-term trends when they last less than a month. Intermediate trends are made up of near-term trends, and major trends are made up of near-term and intermediate trends, which may not go in the same direction as the larger trend they are part of. (An example of this would be a month-long downward price correction in a year-long bull market. The bull market is a major trend, while the price correction is an intermediate trend within it.)
Technical analysts use four kinds of charts. They use line charts to plot closing stock prices over a period of time, bar and candlestick charts to show the high and low prices for the trading period (and gaps between trading periods if there are any), and point and figure charts to show significant price movements over a period of time.
Technical analysts have coined certain phrases for patterns that appear on the charts they analyze. A pattern resembling a head and shoulders indicates that a trend is about to reverse itself. A pattern resembling a cup and handle indicates that an upward trend will continue after pausing for a short downward correction. A rounding bottom, or saucer bottom pattern indicates a long-term bottoming out of a downward trend before an upswing. A double top or double bottom pattern indicates two failed attempts to exceed a high or low price, which will be followed by a reversal of the trend. (Similarly, a triple top or bottom shows three failed attempts that precede a trend reversal.) Other patterns include triangles, wedges, pennants and flags.
4. Understand the concepts of support and resistance. Support refers to the lowest price a security reaches before more buyers come in and drive the price up. Resistance refers to the highest price a security reaches before owners sell their shares and cause the price to fall again. These levels are not fixed, but fluctuate. On a chart depicting channel lines, the bottom line is the support line (floor price for the security), while the top line is the resistance line (ceiling price). Support and resistance levels are used to confirm the existence of a trend and to identify when the trend reverses itself.
Because people tend to think in round numbers (10, 20, 25, 50, 100, 500, 1,000, and so on), support and resistance prices are often given in round numbers.
It is possible for stock prices to rise above resistance levels or fall below support levels. In such cases, the resistance level may become a support level for a new, higher resistance level; or the support level may become a resistance level for a new, lower support level. For this to happen, the price has to make a strong, sustained change. Such reversals may be common in the short term.
Generally, when securities are trading near a support level, technical analysts tend to avoid buying because of concern for price volatility. They may, however, buy within a few points of that level. Those who sell short use the support price as their trading point.
5. Pay attention to the volume of trades. How much buying and selling goes on indicates the validity of a trend or whether it's reversing itself. If the trading volume increases substantially even as the price rises substantially, the trend is probably valid. If the trading volume increases only slightly (or even falls) as the price goes up, the trend is probably due to reverse itself.
6. Use moving averages to filter out minor price fluctuations. A moving average is a series of calculated averages measured over successive, equal periods of time. Moving averages remove unrepresentative highs and lows, making it easier to see overall trends. Plotting prices against moving averages, or short-term averages against long-term averages, makes it easier to spot trend reversals. There are several averaging methods used.
The simple moving average (SMA) is found by adding together all the closing prices during the time period and dividing that sum by the number of prices included.
The linear weighted average takes each price and multiplies it by its position on the chart before adding the prices together and dividing by the number of prices. Thus, over a five-day period, the first price would be multiplied by 1, the second by 2, the third by 3, the fourth by 4 and the fifth by 5.
An exponential moving average (EMA) is similar to the linear moving average, except that it weighs only the most recent prices used in computing the average, making it more responsive to the latest information than a simple moving average.
7. Use indicators and oscillators to support what the price movements are telling you. Indicators are calculations that support the trend information gleaned from price movements and add another factor into your decision to buy or sell securities. (The moving averages described above are an example of an indicator.) Some indicators can have any value, while others are restricted to a particular range of values, such as 0 to 100. The latter indicators are termed oscillators.
Indicators may be either leading or lagging. Leading indicators predict price movements and are most useful during horizontal trends to signal uptrends or downtrends. Lagging indicators confirm price movements and are most useful during uptrends and downtrends.
Trend indicators include the average directional index (ADX) and the Aroon indicator. The ADX uses positive and negative directional indicators to determine how strong an uptrend or downtrend is on a scale of 0 to 100. Values below 20 indicate a weak trend and over 40 a strong one. The Aroon indicator plots the lengths of time since the highest and lowest trading prices were reached, using that data to determine the nature and strength of the trend or the onset of a new trend.
The best known volume indicator is the moving average convergence-divergence (MACD) indicator. It is the difference between two exponential moving averages, one short-term and the other long-term, as plotted against a center line that represents where the two averages equal each other. A positive MACD value shows that the short-term average is above the long-term average and the market should move upward. A negative MACD value shows that the short-term average is below the long-term average and that the market is moving downward. When the MACD is plotted on a chart, and its line crosses the centerline, it shows when the moving averages that make it up cross over. Another volume-related indicator, the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, is the total trading volume for a given period, a positive number when the price is up and a negative number when the price is down. Unlike the MACD, the actual value of the number has less meaning than whether the number is positive or negative.
How frequently securities are being traded is tracked by both the relative strength index (RSI) and the stochastic oscillator. The RSI ranges from 0 to 100; a value over 70 suggests that the security being evaluated is being bought too frequently, while a value under 30 suggests it is being sold too frequently. RSI is normally used for 14-day periods but may be used for shorter periods, making it more volatile. The stochastic oscillator also runs from 0 to 100. It signals too frequent buying at values over 80 and too frequent selling at values under 20.


Community Q&A

Question : What is meant by selling short during a downward trend?
Answer : It means borrowing shares of stock from a broker in order to sell them at one price, then waiting for their price to drop (in the "downward trend") so you can buy them back at the lower price, thus making a profit (at which point you give the shares back to the broker). This is purely a gamble (but a popular one among some professional investors).
Question : What is meant by "buy at pullback and sell at strength"?
Answer : That's another way of saying "buy low, sell high." A "pullback" is a reversal in a rising trend, offering a brief opportunity to buy at a relatively low price. "Strength" is a high price relative to recent levels.
Question : What is meant by saying, "Buy low, sell high"?
Answer : It means you should sell shares only when they are valued at a price higher than the price at which you purchased them. In practice, it means you should buy shares only after they have recently fallen in price, and you should sell shares only after they have recently risen in price -- again assuming the selling price is higher than the original purchase price. That's not always easy to do, but that's the theoretical objective in owning stock.
Question : How can I watch how technical analysis works?
Answer : You would have to find and contact a value investor, and ask if they would let you observe them at work. A stockbroker might be able to help you find such an investor.

Tips.

While most brokerage houses are geared toward long-term investing and employ mostly fundamental analysts, many now employ a few technical analysts as well.

Warnings.
Although some technical analysts use a single indicator or oscillator to tell them whether to buy or sell, indicators are best used in conjunction with one another and with price movements and chart patterns.
Know the limitations of technical analysis: it doesn't always work. For example, the most perfect head and shoulder top pattern possible may be formed (thought to be an extremely bearish technical indicator), and you sell the stock, only to see a huge extended rally from there, leaving you behind. Do not rely exclusively on technical analysis. Use it as a guide, and combine it with fundamental analysis.
June 25, 2020

How Warren Buffett Makes Decisions – The Secret to His Investing Success.

By Michael Lewis.

Warren Buffett is considered by many to be the most successful stock investor ever. Despite the occasional mistake, Buffett’s investing strategies are unrivaled. In 1956, at age 26, his net worth was estimated at $140,000. MarketWatch estimated his net worth at the end of 2016 to be $73.1 billion, an astounding compound annual growth rate of 24.5%. By contrast, the S&P 500 has grown at an average rate of 6.79% and most mutual funds have failed to equal the annual S&P 500 return consistently.

Buffett has achieved these returns while most of his competition failed. According to John Bogle, one of the founders and former Chairman of The Vanguard Group, “The evidence is compelling that equity fund returns lag the stock market by a substantial amount, largely accounted for by cost, and that fund investor returns lag fund returns by a substantial amount, largely accounted for by counterproductive market timing and fund selection.”

Since the evidence shows that Buffet has been an exceptional investor, market observers and psychologists have searched for an explanation to his success. Why has Warren Buffett achieved extraordinary gains compared to his peers? What is his secret?

A Long-Term Perspective. Why Some People Are More Successful Than Others.
Philosophers and scientists have long sought to determine why some people are more successful than others at building wealth. Their findings are varied and often contradictory.

For centuries, people believed their fate, including wealth and status, depended upon the capricious favor of pagan gods – more specifically, the favor of Tyche (Greek) or Fortuna (Roman). Expansion of the Judeo-Christian-Islamic religions and their concepts of “free will” led to the general belief that individuals could control their destiny through their actions, or lack thereof.

Modern science, specifically psychology and neuroscience, advanced a theory of biological determinants that control human decisions and actions. This theory suggests that free will might not be as “free” as previously thought. In other words, we may be predisposed to certain behaviors that affect the ways we process information and make decisions.

Evolutionary biologists and psychologists have developed a variety of different theories to explain human decision-making. Some claim that the ability to make superior decisions with favorable outcomes is the result of eons of natural selection, which favors individuals with exceptional genetics, such as those with high IQs.

Despite the perception that a high IQ is necessary for building wealth, study after study indicates that the link between super-intelligence and financial success is dubious at best:

Dr. Jay Zagorsky’s study in the Intelligence Journal found no strong relationship between total wealth and intelligence: “People don’t become rich just because they are smart.”
Mensa members rank in the top 2% of the brightest people on earth, but most are not rich and are “certainly not the top 1% financially,” according to an organization spokesperson. A study by Eleanor Laise of the Mensa Investment Club noted that the fund averaged 2.5% per annum for a 15-year period, while the S&P 500 averaged 15.3% during the same time. One member admitted that “we can screw up faster than anyone,” while another described their investment strategy as “buy low, sell lower.”
Buffett has never claimed to be a genius. When asked what he would teach the next generation of investors at the 2009 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, he replied, “In the investing business, if you have an IQ of 150, sell 30 points to someone else. You do not need to be a genius . . . It’s not a complicated game; you don’t need to understand math. It’s simple, but not easy.”

He later expanded the thought: “If calculus or algebra were required to be a great investor, I’d have to go back to delivering newspapers.”

Economists’ Rational Man.
Economists have historically based their models upon the presumption that humans make logical decisions. In other words, a person faced with a choice balances certainties against risks. The theory of expected value presumes that people facing choices will choose the one that has the largest combination of expected success (probability) and value (impact).

A rational person would always model the industrious ant in Aesop’s fable, not the insouciant grasshopper. The idea that people would make decisions contrary to their interests is inconceivable to economists.

To be fair, most economists recognize the flaws in their models. Swedish economist Lars Syll notes that “a theoretical model is nothing more than an argument that a set of conclusions follows from a fixed set of assumptions.”

Economists presume stable systems and simple assumptions, while the real world is in constant flux. Paraphrasing H.L Mencken’s famous quote, there is always a simple economic model [well-known solution] for every human problem. This notion is neat, plausible, and wrong.

Psychologists’ Natural Man.
According to Harvard professor Daniel Lieberman, humans are naturally inclined to seek the solutions that require the least expenditure of energy.

In the real world, we have difficulty deferring immediate gratification for future security, selecting investments best suited to our long-term goals and risk profile, and acting in our best financial interests. Psychological research suggests that the difficulty is rooted in our brains – how we think and make decisions.

Researchers Susan Fiske and Shelley Taylor postulate that humans are “cognitive misers,” preferring to do as little thinking as possible. The brain uses more energy than any other human organ, accounting for up to 20% of the body’s total intake.

When decisions involve issues more remote from our current state in distance or time, there is a tendency to defer making a choice. This impulse accounts for the failure of people to save in the present since the payoff is years in the future.

As far as we know, Mr. Buffett’ brain is similar to other investors and he experiences the same impulses and anxieties as others. While he experiences the tensions that arise in everyone when making decisions, he has learned to control impulses and make reasoned, rational decisions.

Our Two-Brain System.
The studies by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky provide new insight into decision-making, perhaps the key to Buffett’s success. They theorize that each human uses two systems of mental processing (System 1 and System 2) that work together seamlessly most of the time. Khaneman’s book, “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” outlines these two systems.

System 1 – Think Fast.
System 1, also referred to as the “emotional brain,” developed as the limbic system in the brain of early humans. Sometimes called the “mammalian brain,” it includes the amygdala, the organ where emotions and memories arise.

Neuroscientist Paul MacLean hypothesized that the limbic system was one of the first steps in the evolution of the human brain, developed as part of its fight or flight circuitry. Through necessity, our primitive ancestors had to react quickly to danger when seconds could mean escape or death.

The emotional brain is always active, capable of making quick decisions with scant information and conscious effort. It continuously makes and remakes models – heuristic frames – of the world around it, relying on the senses and memories of past events.

For example, an experienced driver coordinates steering and speed of an automobile on an empty highway almost effortlessly, even casually. The driver can simultaneously carry on conversations with passengers or listen to the radio without losing control of the vehicle. The driver is relying on the decisions of System 1.

The emotional brain is also the source of intuition, that “inner voice” or gut feeling we sometimes get without being consciously aware of the underlying reasons for its occurrence. We rely primarily on this system for the hundreds of everyday decisions we make – what to wear, where to sit, identifying a friend. Paradoxically, System 1 is a source of creativity as well as habits.

System 2 – Think Slow.
System 2, also called the “logical brain,” is slower, more deliberate, and analytical, rationally balancing the benefits and costs of each choice using all the available information.

System 2 decisions take place in the latest evolutionary addition to the brain – the neocortex. It is believed to be the center of humans’ extraordinary cognitive activity. System 2 was slower to evolve in humans and requires more energy to exercise, indicating the old saw “Thinking is hard” is a fact.

Kahneman characterizes System 2 as “the conscious, reasoning self that has beliefs, makes choices, and decides what to think about and do.” It is in charge of decisions about the future, while System 1 is more active in the moment. While our emotional brain can generate complex patterns of ideas, it is also freewheeling, impulsive, and often inappropriate.

Fortunately, System 1 works well most of the time; its models of everyday situations are accurate, its short-term predictions are usually correct, and its initial reactions to challenges are swift and mostly appropriate.

System 2 is more controlled, rule-based, and analytical, continuously monitoring the quality of the answers provided by System 1. Our logical brain becomes active when it needs to override an automatic judgment of System 1.

For example, the earlier driver proceeding casually down the road is more focused when passing a semi-truck on a narrow two-lane road or in heavy traffic, actively processing the changing conditions and responding with deliberate actions. His or her mental effort is accompanied by detectable physical changes, such as tensed muscles, increased heart rate, and dilated pupils. In these circumstances, System 2 is in charge.

The logical brain normally functions in low-effort mode, always in reserve until System 1 encounters a problem it cannot solve or is required to act in a way that doesn’t come naturally. Solving for the product of 37 x 82 requires the deliberate processes of System 2, while the answer to a simple addition problem, such as the sum of 2 + 2, is a System 1 function. The answer is not calculated, but summoned from memory.

Neuropsychologists Abigail Baird and Jonathan Fugelsang’s 2004 study indicates that System 2 does not fully develop until adulthood. Their findings suggest the reason that adolescents are more likely to engage in risky behavior is because they lack the mental hardware to weigh decisions rationally. For most people, the two systems work together seamlessly, transitioning from one to the other as needed.

The Buffett Style.
The Oracle of Omaha’s key to investing is understanding and coordinating the two systems of decision-making. Buffett relies upon System 1 to intuitively seek out investments he finds attractive and understands.

When deciding on a possible investment, he recommends, “If you need a computer or a calculator to decide whether to invest, then don’t do it – invest in something that shouts at you – if it is not obvious, walk away . . . If you don’t know the business, the financials won’t help at all.”

Avoid the Traps of Thinking Fast.
Master investors like Buffett simplify their decisions by relying upon System 1, and it serves them well in most cases. However, they recognize that their emotional decision-making system is also prone to biases and errors, including:

Mental Framing.
Our brains, equipped with millions of sensory inputs, create interpretive mental “frames” or filters to make sense of data. These mental filters help us understand and respond to the events around us. Framing is a heuristic – a mental shortcut – that provides a quick, easy way to process information. Unfortunately, framing can also provide a limited, simplistic view of reality that can lead to flawed decisions.

The choices we make depend on our perspective, or the frames surrounding the problem. For example, research shows that people are likely to proceed with a decision if the outcome is presented with a 50% chance of success and decline if the consequence is expressed with a 50% chance of failure, even though the probability is the same in either case.

Most investors incorrectly frame stock investments by thinking of the stock market as a stream of electronic bits of data independent of the underlying businesses the data represents. The constant flow of information about prices, economies, and expert opinions triggers our emotional brains and stimulates quick decisions to reap profits (pleasure) or prevent loss (pain).

Buffett recommends investors not think of an investment in stock as “a piece of paper whose price wiggles around daily” and is a candidate for sale whenever you get nervous.

Short-term thinking – System 1 – often leads to trading stocks, not investing in companies. Day traders – those who buy and sell stocks within a single market session – are unusually unsuccessful, according to day trading studies by the University of California-Berkeley:

80% of all day traders quit within the first two years.
Active traders underperform the stock market average by 6.5% annually.
Only 1.6% of day traders make a net profit each year.
Financial data is especially susceptible to framing. Companies always express earnings and losses positively, either as an increase compared to past results or a smaller loss than previous periods. Trends can be manipulated based upon the comparison point and time interval.

Even the words we use to describe a choice establish a frame for assessing value. Characterizations like “high growth,” “turnaround,” or “cyclical” trigger the subconscious stereotypes we have for such terms without regard to the underlying financial data.

Framing can lead rational people to make irrational decisions based upon their projections of the outcome. This accounts for the difference between economics’ rational man and psychology’s natural man.

Buffett has learned to frame his investment opportunities appropriately to avoid short-term, arbitrary outcomes:

“We [Berkshire Hathaway] select such investments on a long-term basis, weighing the same factors as would be involved in the purchase of 100% of an operating business.”
“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”
“If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it 10 minutes.”
Loss Aversion.
Kahneman and Tversky determined that in human decision-making, losses loom larger than gains. Their experiments suggest that the pain of loss is twice as a great as the pleasure from gain. This feeling arises in the amygdala, which is responsible for generating fearful emotions and memories of painful associations.

The fact that investors are more likely to sell stocks with profit than those with a loss, when the converse strategy would be more logical, is evidence of the power of loss aversion.

While Buffett sells his positions infrequently, he cuts his losses when he realizes he has made a judgment error. In 2016, Buffett substantially reduced or liquidated his position in three companies, because he believed they had lost their competitive edge:

Wal-Mart: Despite his regrets that he had not purchased more shares earlier, he has been a long-time investor in the company. The rationale for the recent sales is thought to be due to the transition of the retail market from bricks-and-mortar stores to online. A Pew Research Center study found almost 80% of Americans today are online shoppers versus 22% in 2000.
Deere & Co: Buffett’s initial purchases of the agricultural equipment manufacturer began in the third quarter of 2012. By 2016, he owned almost 22-million shares with an average cost of less than $80 per share. He liquidated his shares during the last two quarters of 2016 when prices were more than $100 per share. Buffett may have felt that farm income, having fallen by half since 2013 due to worldwide bumper crops, was unlikely to improve, leaving the premier provider of agricultural equipment unable to continue to expand its profits.
Verizon: Having owned the stock since 2014, he liquidated his entire position in 2016, due to a loss of confidence in management after the company’s questionable acquisition of Yahoo and the continued turmoil in the wireless carrier market.
Our distaste for losses can create anxiety and trick us into acting prematurely because we fear being left out in a rising market or staying too long in a bear market. Buffett and Munger practice “assiduity – the ability to sit on your ass and do nothing until a great opportunity presents itself.”

Representativeness.
People tend to ignore statistics and focus on stereotypes. An example in the Association of Psychological Science Journal illustrates this common bias. When asked to select the proper occupation of a shy, withdrawn man who takes little interest in the real world from a list including farmer, salesman, pilot, doctor, and librarian, most people incorrectly chose librarian. Their decision ignores the obvious: there are many more farmers in the world than librarians.

Buffett focuses on finding the “inevitables” – great companies with insurmountable advantages – rather than following conventional wisdom and accepted patterns of thinking favored by System 1’s decision-making process. In his 1996 letter to investors, he defines Coca-Cola and Gillette as two companies that “will dominate their fields worldwide for an investment lifetime.”

He is especially wary of “imposters” – those companies that seem invincible but lack real competitive advantage. For every inevitable, there are dozens of imposters. According to Buffett, General Motors, IBM, and Sears lost their seemingly insurmountable advantages when values declined in “the presence of hubris or of boredom that caused the attention of the managers to wander.”

Buffett recognizes that companies in high-tech or embryonic industries capture our imaginations – and excite our emotional brains – with their promise of extraordinary gains. However, he prefers investments where he is “certain of a good result [rather] than hopeful of a great one” – an example of the logical brain at work.

Anchoring.
Evolution is the reason humans rely too heavily on the first or a single bit of information they receive – their “first impression.” In a world of deadly perils, delaying action can lead to pain or death. Therefore, first impressions linger in our minds and affect subsequent decisions. We subconsciously believe that what happened in the past will happen in the future, leading us to exaggerate the importance of the initial purchase price in subsequent decisions to sell a security.

Investors unknowingly make decisions based on anchoring data, such as previous stock prices, past years’ earnings, consensus analyst projections or expert opinions, and prevailing attitudes about the direction of stock prices, whether in a bear or bull market. While some characterize this effect as following a trend, it is a System 1 shortcut based on partial information, rather than the result of System 2 analysis.

Buffett often goes against the trend of popular opinion, recognizing that “most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.” When making a decision based on historical data, he notes, “If past history was all that is needed to play the game of money, the richest people would be librarians.”

Buffett’s approach is neither to follow the herd nor purposely do the opposite of the consensus. Whether people concur with his analysis isn’t important. His goal is simple: acquire, at a reasonable price, a business with excellent economics and able, honest management.

Despite considering IBM an “imposter” in 1996, Berkshire Hathaway began acquiring the stock in 2011, consistently adding to Buffett’s position over the years. By the end of the first quarter in 2017, Berkshire owned more than 8% of the outstanding shares with a value greater than $14 billion.

While his analysis remains confidential, Buffett believes that the investors have discounted the future of IBM too severely and failed to note its transition to a cloud-based business might lead to brighter growth prospects and a high degree of customer retention. Also, the company pays a dividend almost twice the level of the S&P 500 and actively repurchases shares on the open market.

The growing IBM position – quadrupling since the initial purchase – is evidence that Buffett isn’t afraid to take action when he is comfortable with his analysis: “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.”

Availability.
Humans tend to estimate the likelihood of an event occurring based on the ease with which it comes to mind. For example, a 2008 study of State lottery sales showed that stores that sell a publicized, winning lottery ticket experience a 12% to 38% increase in sales for up to 40 weeks following the announcement of the winner.

People visit stores selling a winning ticket more often due to the easy recall of the win, and a bias that the location is “lucky” and more likely to produce another winning ticket than a more convenient store down the street.

This bias frequently affects decisions about stock investments. In other words, investor perceptions lag reality. Momentum, whether upward or downward, continues well past the emergence of new facts. Investors with losses are slow to reinvest, often sitting on the sidelines until prices have recovered most of their decline (irrational pessimism).

Conversely, reinforcement from a bull market encourages continued purchasing even after the economic cycle turns down (irrational optimism). Therefore, investors tend to buy when prices are high and sell when they are low.

The S&P 500 fell 57% between late 2007 and March 2009, devastating investor portfolios and liquidating stocks and mutual funds. Even though the index had recovered its losses by mid-2012, individual investors had not returned to equity investments, either staying in cash or purchasing less risky bonds.

At the time, Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., noted, “Even three-and-a-half years into this bull market and the gains we’ve seen since June [2012], it has not turned this psychology [of fear] around.” In other words, many individuals took the loss but did not participate in the subsequent recovery.

Buffett has always tried to follow the advice of his mentor, Benjamin Graham, who said, “Buy not on optimism [or sell due to pessimism], but on arithmetic.” Graham advocated objective analysis, not emotions, when buying or selling stocks: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine [emotional], but in the long run it is a weighing machine [logical].”

Affect.
We tend to assess probabilities based on our feelings about the options. In other words, we judge an option less risky solely because we favor it and vice versa. This bias can lead people to buy stock in their employer when other investments would be more appropriate for their goals. Overconfidence in one’s ability magnifies the negative impact of affect.

For example, Buffett invested $350 million in preferred stock of U.S. Airways in 1989, despite his belief that airlines and airline manufacturers had historically been a death trap for investors. The investment followed a dinner with Ed Colodny, the CEO of the airline, who impressed Buffett. Certain that the preferred stock was safe and the airline had a competitive seat cost (around 12 cents per mile), he made the investment.

Buffett later admitted his analysis “was superficial and wrong,” perhaps due to hubris and his like for Colodny. An upstart Texas airline (Southwest Airlines) subsequently upset the competitive balance in the industry with seat costs of 8 cents per mile, causing Berkshire Hathaway to write down its investment by 75%.

Buffett was lucky to make a significant profit on the investment ($216 million), primarily because the airline subsequently and unexpectedly returned to profitability and was able to pay the accrued dividends and redeem its preferred stock.

Final Word.
Mr. Buffett’s investment style has been criticized by many over the decades. Trend followers and traders are especially critical of his record and philosophy, claiming that his results are the result of “luck, given the relatively few trades that made him so wealthy.”

Hedge fund manager Michael Steinhardt, who Forbes called “Wall Street’s Greatest Trader,” said during a CNBC interview that Buffett is “the greatest PR person of all time. And he has managed to achieve a snow job that has conned virtually everyone in the press to my knowledge.”

Before following the advice of those who are quick to condemn Buffett’s investment style, it should be noted that no investment manager has come close to rivaling Buffet’s record over the past 60 years. While Steinhardt’s returns are similar to those of Buffett, his were for a period of 28 years – less than one-half of Buffett’s cycle.

Despite their antipathy, both men would agree that System 2 decision-making is critical to investment success. Steinhardt, in his autobiography “No Bull: My Life In and Out of Markets,” said that his results required “knowing more and perceiving the situation better than others did . . . Reaching a level of understanding that allows one to feel competitively informed well ahead of changes in ‘street’ views, even anticipating minor stock price changes, may justify at times making unpopular investments.”

Buffett appears to agree, insisting on taking the time for introspection and thought. “I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in American business. I read and think. So I do more reading and thinking, and make fewer impulsive decisions than most people in business.”

Do you take the time to gather facts and make carefully analyzed investment decisions? Perhaps you are more comfortable going with the flow. What is your decision-making preference and how has it worked out for you thus far?
Do you know anyone who has owned the same stock for 20 years? Warren Buffett has held three stocks – Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, and American Express – for more than 20 years. He has owned one stock – Moody’s – for 15 years, and three other stocks – Proctor & Gamble, Wal-Mart, and U.S. Bancorp – for over a decade.

To be sure, Mr. Buffett’s 50-year track record is not perfect, as he has pointed out from time to time:

Berkshire Hathaway: Pique at CEO Seabird Stanton motivated his takeover of the failing textile company. Buffett later admitted the purchase was “the dumbest stock I ever bought.”
Energy Future Holding: Buffett lost a billion dollars in bonds of the bankrupt Texas electric utility. He admitted he made a huge mistake not consulting his long-term business partner Charlie Munger before closing the purchase: “I would be unwilling to share the credit for my decision to invest with anyone else. That was just a mistake – a significant mistake.”
Wal-Mart: At the 2003 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffet admitted his attempt to time the market had backfired: “We bought a little, and it moved up a little, and I thought maybe it would come back. That thumb-sucking has cost us in the current area of $10 billion.”
Even with these mistakes, Buffett has focused on making big bets that he intends to hold for decades to come. A longer time horizon has allowed him to take advantage of opportunities few others have the patience for. But how has he been able to make these successful bets in the first place?

source : https://www.moneycrashers.com/warren-buffett-decisions-secret-investing-success.
August 14, 2020