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How to Start a Finance Company.

Finance companies provide loans to individual and commercial customers for a variety of reasons. Commercial customers can include retail stores, small businesses or large firms. Commercial loans can help established businesses construct a new office or retail space, or they can help new business get up and running. Personal loans for individual customers can include home equity loans, student loans and auto loans. Starting a finance company requires not only a thorough understanding of your target customer's needs and a comprehensive product line, but also a solid business plan that outlines how you will make your company successful. In addition,any new finance company must comply with strict state and federal regulations and meet initial funding requirements.

Part 1 Identifying the Finance Company Business Model

1. Select a finance company specialty. Finance companies tend to specialize in the types of loans they make as well as the customers they serve. The financial, marketing, and operational requirements vary from one specialty to another. Focusing on a single business model is critical to the successful creation and operation of a new company. Private finance companies range from the local mortgage broker who specializes in refinancing or making new loans to homeowners to the factoring companies (factors) that acquire or finance account receivables for small businesses. The decision to pursue a specific finance company specialty should be based upon your interest, your experiences, and the likelihood of success.

Many finance companies are founded by former employees of existing companies. For example, former loan officers, underwriters, and broker associates create new mortgage brokerage firms specializing in a specific type of loan (commercial or residential) or working with a single lender.

Consider the business specialty that attracted you initially. Why were you attracted to the business? Does the business require substantial start-up and operating capital?

Is there an opportunity to create the same business in a new area? Will you be competing with other similar, existing businesses?

2. Confirm the business opportunity. A new finance company must be able to attract clients and produce a profit. As a consequence, it is important to research the expected market space where the business will compete. How big is the market? Who presently serves potential clients? Are prices stable? Is the market limited to a specific geographic area? How do existing companies attract and serve their customers? How do competitors differ in their approach to marketing and service features?

Identify your target market, or the specific customers you intend to serve. Explain their needs and how you intend to meet them.}}

Describe your area of specialization. For example, if your market research indicates a growing number of small start-up companies needing loans, describe how the financial products and services you offer are strong enough to gain a significant share of that market.

Consider the companies already in the competitive space. Are they similar in size or dominated by a single company? Similar market shares may indicate a slow-growing market or the companies’ inability to distinguish themselves from their competitors.

Tip: Identifying your target market will require you to identify key demographics that are currently underserved and how you plan to draw these customers away from your competitors. You should list who these customers are and how your financial products will appeal to them. Include any advantages you have over competitors.

3. Identify the business requirements. What are the likely fixed costs to operate the business - office space, equipment, utilities, salaries and wages? What business processes are necessary for day-to-day operations - marketing, loan officers, underwriters, clerks and accountants? Will potential clients visit a physical office, communicate online, or both? Will you need a financial partner such as mortgage lender or a bank?

Mortgage brokers act as intermediaries between borrowers and lenders, sometimes with discretion up to a dollar limit. Factors typically leverage their own capital by borrowing from larger financial institutions.

4. Crunch the numbers. How much capital is required to open the business? What is the expected revenue per client or transaction? What is break-even sales volume? Before risking your own and other people’s capital, you need to ensure that profitability is possible and reasonable, if not likely.{{greenbox: Tip: Develop financial projections (pro formas) for the first three years of operation to understand how the business is likely to fare in the real world. The projections should include month to month Income Statements for the first year, and quarterly statements thereafter, as well as 'projected Balance Sheets and Cash Flow Statements.

Part 2 Making a Self Assessment.

1. Identify your skills. Before starting your new company and, possibly, a new career, it is important to objectively evaluate your skills and personality to determine what steps you need to take to successfully start and manage a finance company. Do you have special training in the finance specialty? Do you understand finance and accounting? Do you work well with people? Are you a leader, who inspires others to follow them, or a manager, who can assess a problem, discern its cause, direct resources to implement a solution? Are you a good salesperson? Do you have any special abilities specifically suited to the finance industry?

2. Assess your emotional strengths and interests. Do you work best alone or with others? Do you find it easy to compromise? Are you patient or demanding with others? Do you make quick, intuitive decisions or do you prefer detailed information and careful analysis before acting? How comfortable are you with risk? Are an optimist or a pessimist? When you make a mistake, do you beat yourself up or regard it as a learning opportunity and move on?

3. Consider your experience. Have you worked in the finance industry previously? Are you monetarily and professionally successful in your present position? Do you understand marketing, accounting, legal matters, or banking? Have you been responsible for creating new markets or leading sales teams?

4. Determine your financial capacity. Do you have sufficient capital to open the finance company you envision? Do you have assets that can cover your living expenses during a start-up phase? Will your family or friends contribute to the financing of your business? Do you have access to other financial sources - personal loans, venture capital, investment funds, or financial sponsors?

Part 3 Creating a Business Plan.

1. Set up your business plan. The Business Plan serves a number of functions. It is a blueprint for building your company in the future, a guide to ensure you remain focused in your efforts, and a detailed description of your company for potential lenders and investors. Begin writing your business plan by including all of the required sections and leaving room to fill them in. The steps in this part should serve as your sections, starting with the business description.

2. Write a business description. Your business plan will layout a blueprint for your company. The first part of your business, the description, is a summary of the organization and goals of your business. Begin by justifying the need for a new financial company in the industry or target location. You should briefly identify your target market, how you plan to reach them, descriptions of your products and services, and how your company will be organized.

Tip: You should also briefly explain how there is room in the current market for your company (how it will compete against competitors). You should already have this information from your initial market research.

3. Describe the organization and management of your company. Clarify who owns the company. Specify the qualifications of your management team. Create an organizational chart. A comprehensive, well-developed organizational structure can help a financial institution be more successful.

The Chief Executive Office leads the "executive suite" of other company officers.

The Chief Operating Officer manages the activities of the lending, servicing and insurance and investment units of the company.

The Chief Administrative Officer’s responsibilities include marketing, human resources, employee training, facilities, technology and the legal department.

The Chief Financial Officer ensures that the company operates within regulatory parameters. This person also monitors the company’s financial performance.

In smaller companies, executives may fill more than one of these roles simultaneously.

4. Describe your product line. Explain the types of financial products and loans you provide. Emphasize the benefits your products offer to your target customers. Specify the need your product fills in the market.

For example, if your target customers are small business owners, describe how the financial products and investments you offer to help them run their businesses.

5. Explain how your business is financed. Determine how much money you need to start your finance company. Specify how much equity you own. State what percentage other investors own in the company. Indicate how you plan to finance your company with leverage (loans),where these loans are coming from, and how the loans will be used in the business.

In most cases, equity in the company is used primarily for the company's operations, rather than the source of loans to customers. Secondary lenders provide funds to the finance company that is subsequently loaned to customers; the customers' loans collateralize the lenders' loans to the finance company. This is because profit is made in the spread, or the difference between your cost of acquiring capital and profit from lending it out.

Any funding request should indicate how much you need, how you intend to use the money, and the terms of the loan or investment.

6. Document your marketing and sales management strategies. Your marketing strategy should explain how you plan to attract and communicate with both customers and lenders/depositors. It should also show how you plan to grow your company. The sales strategy defines how you will sell your product.

Promotional strategies include advertising, public relations and printed materials.

Business growth opportunities not only include building your staff, but also acquiring new businesses or beginning to offer different kinds of products.

The sales strategy should include information about the size of your sales force, procedures for sales calls and sales goals.

7. Include financial statements in your business plan. Reviewing the pro forma financial statements you created during your business planning, be sure that your projections are reasonable and conservative. You may also want to cautiously estimate performance over the next two years after that. Include a ratio analysis to document your understanding of financial trends over time and predict future financial performance.

Prospective financial data should provide monthly statements for the first year and annual statements for the next two years.

Standard financial ratios include Gross profit margin, ROE, Current ratio, Debt to Equity.

Ratio and trend analysis data helps you document whether you will be able to continue to serve your customers over time, how well you utilize your assets and manage your liabilities, and whether you have enough cash to meet your obligations.

Tip: Add graphs to your analysis to illustrate positive trends.

Part 4 Determining Your Business Structure.

1. Consider forming a Limited Liability Company. A Limited Liability Company (LLC) is similar to a corporation in that it protects its owners from personal liability for debts or actions incurred by the business. However, they have the tax advantages of a sole proprietorship or partnership. A corporation typically files taxes separately from the shareholders.

Be aware that corporations pay double federal income tax, meaning taxes are assessed when profit is earned, and then again when it is distributed to shareholders.

You should seek legal advice to determine the best structure for your business.

2. Name and register your business. Choose a name that represents your brand and is unique enough to obtain a website address or URL. When choosing a name, check with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office to make sure you are not infringing on any trademarks. Also, check with you state to see if the name is already in use by another corporation.

You will have to register with your state as a corporation. The exact registration process varies by state and type of corporation you decide to form.

Since your business name is one of your most important assets, protect it by applying for trademark protection with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

3. Obtain a require operational licenses and permits. Financial institutions acquire these from the state in which they operate. Consult with your State Business License Office to identify the specific license and permit you need. Each state has different requirements for licensing financial institutions. You will need to specify exactly what type of financial institution you are opening, such as an investment company or a licensed lender. You will then furnish the requisite documents and pay any fees.

Due to the incredibly complex and constantly-evolving nature of the financial services industry, it is advised that finance companies hire and retain expert legal counsel to guide them through these regulations.

Note: You will also need to comply with any permit requirements surrounding your office space, like public and workplace safety regulations and operating permits.

4. Learn about regulations. The two categories of financial regulations in the United States are safety-and-soundness regulation and compliance. Safety-and-soundness regulations protect creditors from losses arising from the insolvency of financial institutions. Compliance regulations aim to protect individuals from unfair dealings or crime from the financial institutions. Financial regulations are carried out by both federal and state agencies.

Federal financial regulation agencies include the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Office of Thrift Supervision, the National Credit Union Administration and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

State regulatory agencies may have additional requirements that are even more stringent than those set by the SEC.

With the help of your legal counsel, investigate reserve and initial funding requirements for your company. This will determine how much startup money you need.

5. Protect yourself from risk and liabilities with indemnity insurance. Indemnity insurance protects you and your employees should someone sue you. Financial institutions should purchase a specific kind of indemnity insurance called Errors and Omissions (E&O) insurance. This protects the financial company from claims made by clients for inadequate or negligent work. It is often required by government regulatory bodies. Remember, however, that staying in compliance with all regulatory requirements is still your responsibility.

Part 5 Setting Up Shop.

1. Obtain financing. You will need to finance your company according to your business plan, using a combination of equity and debt financing. Initial startup costs will be used for meeting reserve requirements and the building or rental of office spaces. From there, much of the company's operating capital will be lent out to customers.

Be aware of Federal and State laws regulating the private solicitation of investors. Adherence to securities laws regarding the information provided to potential investors and the qualifications of the investor will apply in most circumstances.

Sources of debt financing include loans from the government and commercial lending institutions. Money borrowed with debt financing must be paid back over a period of time, usually with interest.

The Small Business Administration (SBA) partners with banks to offer government loans to business owners. However, these loans can only be used for the purchase of equipment, not lent out to others. The SBA helps lending institutions make long-term loans by guaranteeing a portion of the loan should the business default.

Finance companies face the problem of having to raise large amounts of initial funding to be successful. They also often have to deal with a slew of other challenges before they become profitable. Without accounting properly for issues like fraud, it's very easy for a finance company to go out of business.

Note: Investors may want to provide financing in exchange for equity in the company. This is called equity financing, and it makes the investors shareholders in the company. You don’t have to repay these investors, but you do have to share profits with them.

2. Choose your location. A finance company should make a positive impression on customers. Customers looking for a loan will want to do business in a place that projects a trustworthy and sound image. Take into account the reputation of the neighborhood or of a particular building and how it will appear to customers. Also consider how customers will reach you and the proximity of your competitors. If your target customers are small local businesses, for example, they may not want to drive to a remote location or deal with heavy city traffic to meet with you.

If you are not sure, contact your local planning agency to find out if your desired location is zoned for commercial use, especially if you plan to operate out of your home.

Leasing commercial office space is expensive. Consider your finances, not only what you can afford, but also other expenses such as renovations and property taxes.

In today's connected world, it's also possible to run a finance company online, without a location for physical interaction with customers. While you'll likely still need an office for your employees, not having a retail location can save you some regulatory hassle expense.

3. Hire and retain employees. Write effective job descriptions so employees and applicants understand their role in the company and what your expectations of them are. Compile a compensation package, including required and optional fringe benefits. Compose an employee handbook that communicates company policies, compensation, schedules and standards of conduct.

Perform pre-employment background checks to make informed decisions about whom you hire. Financial planners and advisors require a specific educational background and are subject to rigorous certification requirements. Consider obtaining credit reports to show how financially responsible a candidate is.

4. Pay your taxes. Obtain an Employee Identification Number (EIN) from the IRS. This is also known as your Federal Tax Identification Number. Determine your federal and state tax obligations. State tax obligations include income taxes and employment taxes. All states also require payment of workers' compensation insurance and unemployment insurance taxes, and some also require payment of disability insurance.

5. Create loan packages for your clients. Decide if you are going to offer revolving or fixed-amount types of credit. Think about your target customers and what kinds of loans they would need. Homeowners and individuals may seek mortgages, auto loans, student loans or personal loans. Entrepreneurs may seek small business loans. Consolidated loans may help customers who are struggling to manage their finances.

Recognize that your loan offerings, rates, and terms will need to be constantly reworked with the changing loan market. Some of these items may also be subject to various regulations, so consult your legal counsel before finalizing your offerings.

6. Market your new finance company. Target your marketing efforts towards your chosen niche of clients. Marketing includes networking and advertising, but there are also other ways of letting potential customers know you have set up shop. Become a familiar face in your local business community by attending and speaking at events sponsored by the local chamber of commerce. Publish communications such as a newsletter or e-zine. Participate in social networking on sites like Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter.

Note: In order to become successful, you'll have to attract both depositors and loan customers, so be sure to offer deals on both ends. Without attracting depositor, you will have no capital to lend out to customers.


December 03, 2019


How to Start a Finance Company.

Finance companies provide loans to individual and commercial customers for a variety of reasons. Commercial customers can include retail stores, small businesses or large firms. Commercial loans can help established businesses construct a new office or retail space, or they can help new business get up and running. Personal loans for individual customers can include home equity loans, student loans and auto loans. Starting a finance company requires not only a thorough understanding of your target customer's needs and a comprehensive product line, but also a solid business plan that outlines how you will make your company successful. In addition,any new finance company must comply with strict state and federal regulations and meet initial funding requirements.

Part 1 Identifying the Finance Company Business Model

1. Select a finance company specialty. Finance companies tend to specialize in the types of loans they make as well as the customers they serve. The financial, marketing, and operational requirements vary from one specialty to another. Focusing on a single business model is critical to the successful creation and operation of a new company. Private finance companies range from the local mortgage broker who specializes in refinancing or making new loans to homeowners to the factoring companies (factors) that acquire or finance account receivables for small businesses. The decision to pursue a specific finance company specialty should be based upon your interest, your experiences, and the likelihood of success.

Many finance companies are founded by former employees of existing companies. For example, former loan officers, underwriters, and broker associates create new mortgage brokerage firms specializing in a specific type of loan (commercial or residential) or working with a single lender.

Consider the business specialty that attracted you initially. Why were you attracted to the business? Does the business require substantial start-up and operating capital?

Is there an opportunity to create the same business in a new area? Will you be competing with other similar, existing businesses?

2. Confirm the business opportunity. A new finance company must be able to attract clients and produce a profit. As a consequence, it is important to research the expected market space where the business will compete. How big is the market? Who presently serves potential clients? Are prices stable? Is the market limited to a specific geographic area? How do existing companies attract and serve their customers? How do competitors differ in their approach to marketing and service features?

Identify your target market, or the specific customers you intend to serve. Explain their needs and how you intend to meet them.}}

Describe your area of specialization. For example, if your market research indicates a growing number of small start-up companies needing loans, describe how the financial products and services you offer are strong enough to gain a significant share of that market.

Consider the companies already in the competitive space. Are they similar in size or dominated by a single company? Similar market shares may indicate a slow-growing market or the companies’ inability to distinguish themselves from their competitors.

Tip: Identifying your target market will require you to identify key demographics that are currently underserved and how you plan to draw these customers away from your competitors. You should list who these customers are and how your financial products will appeal to them. Include any advantages you have over competitors.

3. Identify the business requirements. What are the likely fixed costs to operate the business - office space, equipment, utilities, salaries and wages? What business processes are necessary for day-to-day operations - marketing, loan officers, underwriters, clerks and accountants? Will potential clients visit a physical office, communicate online, or both? Will you need a financial partner such as mortgage lender or a bank?

Mortgage brokers act as intermediaries between borrowers and lenders, sometimes with discretion up to a dollar limit. Factors typically leverage their own capital by borrowing from larger financial institutions.

4. Crunch the numbers. How much capital is required to open the business? What is the expected revenue per client or transaction? What is break-even sales volume? Before risking your own and other people’s capital, you need to ensure that profitability is possible and reasonable, if not likely.{{greenbox: Tip: Develop financial projections (pro formas) for the first three years of operation to understand how the business is likely to fare in the real world. The projections should include month to month Income Statements for the first year, and quarterly statements thereafter, as well as 'projected Balance Sheets and Cash Flow Statements.

Part 2 Making a Self Assessment.

1. Identify your skills. Before starting your new company and, possibly, a new career, it is important to objectively evaluate your skills and personality to determine what steps you need to take to successfully start and manage a finance company. Do you have special training in the finance specialty? Do you understand finance and accounting? Do you work well with people? Are you a leader, who inspires others to follow them, or a manager, who can assess a problem, discern its cause, direct resources to implement a solution? Are you a good salesperson? Do you have any special abilities specifically suited to the finance industry?

2. Assess your emotional strengths and interests. Do you work best alone or with others? Do you find it easy to compromise? Are you patient or demanding with others? Do you make quick, intuitive decisions or do you prefer detailed information and careful analysis before acting? How comfortable are you with risk? Are an optimist or a pessimist? When you make a mistake, do you beat yourself up or regard it as a learning opportunity and move on?

3. Consider your experience. Have you worked in the finance industry previously? Are you monetarily and professionally successful in your present position? Do you understand marketing, accounting, legal matters, or banking? Have you been responsible for creating new markets or leading sales teams?

4. Determine your financial capacity. Do you have sufficient capital to open the finance company you envision? Do you have assets that can cover your living expenses during a start-up phase? Will your family or friends contribute to the financing of your business? Do you have access to other financial sources - personal loans, venture capital, investment funds, or financial sponsors?

Part 3 Creating a Business Plan.

1. Set up your business plan. The Business Plan serves a number of functions. It is a blueprint for building your company in the future, a guide to ensure you remain focused in your efforts, and a detailed description of your company for potential lenders and investors. Begin writing your business plan by including all of the required sections and leaving room to fill them in. The steps in this part should serve as your sections, starting with the business description.

2. Write a business description. Your business plan will layout a blueprint for your company. The first part of your business, the description, is a summary of the organization and goals of your business. Begin by justifying the need for a new financial company in the industry or target location. You should briefly identify your target market, how you plan to reach them, descriptions of your products and services, and how your company will be organized.

Tip: You should also briefly explain how there is room in the current market for your company (how it will compete against competitors). You should already have this information from your initial market research.

3. Describe the organization and management of your company. Clarify who owns the company. Specify the qualifications of your management team. Create an organizational chart. A comprehensive, well-developed organizational structure can help a financial institution be more successful.

The Chief Executive Office leads the "executive suite" of other company officers.

The Chief Operating Officer manages the activities of the lending, servicing and insurance and investment units of the company.

The Chief Administrative Officer’s responsibilities include marketing, human resources, employee training, facilities, technology and the legal department.

The Chief Financial Officer ensures that the company operates within regulatory parameters. This person also monitors the company’s financial performance.

In smaller companies, executives may fill more than one of these roles simultaneously.

4. Describe your product line. Explain the types of financial products and loans you provide. Emphasize the benefits your products offer to your target customers. Specify the need your product fills in the market.

For example, if your target customers are small business owners, describe how the financial products and investments you offer to help them run their businesses.

5. Explain how your business is financed. Determine how much money you need to start your finance company. Specify how much equity you own. State what percentage other investors own in the company. Indicate how you plan to finance your company with leverage (loans),where these loans are coming from, and how the loans will be used in the business.

In most cases, equity in the company is used primarily for the company's operations, rather than the source of loans to customers. Secondary lenders provide funds to the finance company that is subsequently loaned to customers; the customers' loans collateralize the lenders' loans to the finance company. This is because profit is made in the spread, or the difference between your cost of acquiring capital and profit from lending it out.

Any funding request should indicate how much you need, how you intend to use the money, and the terms of the loan or investment.

6. Document your marketing and sales management strategies. Your marketing strategy should explain how you plan to attract and communicate with both customers and lenders/depositors. It should also show how you plan to grow your company. The sales strategy defines how you will sell your product.

Promotional strategies include advertising, public relations and printed materials.

Business growth opportunities not only include building your staff, but also acquiring new businesses or beginning to offer different kinds of products.

The sales strategy should include information about the size of your sales force, procedures for sales calls and sales goals.

7. Include financial statements in your business plan. Reviewing the pro forma financial statements you created during your business planning, be sure that your projections are reasonable and conservative. You may also want to cautiously estimate performance over the next two years after that. Include a ratio analysis to document your understanding of financial trends over time and predict future financial performance.

Prospective financial data should provide monthly statements for the first year and annual statements for the next two years.

Standard financial ratios include Gross profit margin, ROE, Current ratio, Debt to Equity.

Ratio and trend analysis data helps you document whether you will be able to continue to serve your customers over time, how well you utilize your assets and manage your liabilities, and whether you have enough cash to meet your obligations.

Tip: Add graphs to your analysis to illustrate positive trends.

Part 4 Determining Your Business Structure.

1. Consider forming a Limited Liability Company. A Limited Liability Company (LLC) is similar to a corporation in that it protects its owners from personal liability for debts or actions incurred by the business. However, they have the tax advantages of a sole proprietorship or partnership. A corporation typically files taxes separately from the shareholders.

Be aware that corporations pay double federal income tax, meaning taxes are assessed when profit is earned, and then again when it is distributed to shareholders.

You should seek legal advice to determine the best structure for your business.

2. Name and register your business. Choose a name that represents your brand and is unique enough to obtain a website address or URL. When choosing a name, check with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office to make sure you are not infringing on any trademarks. Also, check with you state to see if the name is already in use by another corporation.

You will have to register with your state as a corporation. The exact registration process varies by state and type of corporation you decide to form.

Since your business name is one of your most important assets, protect it by applying for trademark protection with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.

3. Obtain a require operational licenses and permits. Financial institutions acquire these from the state in which they operate. Consult with your State Business License Office to identify the specific license and permit you need. Each state has different requirements for licensing financial institutions. You will need to specify exactly what type of financial institution you are opening, such as an investment company or a licensed lender. You will then furnish the requisite documents and pay any fees.

Due to the incredibly complex and constantly-evolving nature of the financial services industry, it is advised that finance companies hire and retain expert legal counsel to guide them through these regulations.

Note: You will also need to comply with any permit requirements surrounding your office space, like public and workplace safety regulations and operating permits.

4. Learn about regulations. The two categories of financial regulations in the United States are safety-and-soundness regulation and compliance. Safety-and-soundness regulations protect creditors from losses arising from the insolvency of financial institutions. Compliance regulations aim to protect individuals from unfair dealings or crime from the financial institutions. Financial regulations are carried out by both federal and state agencies.

Federal financial regulation agencies include the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Office of Thrift Supervision, the National Credit Union Administration and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

State regulatory agencies may have additional requirements that are even more stringent than those set by the SEC.

With the help of your legal counsel, investigate reserve and initial funding requirements for your company. This will determine how much startup money you need.

5. Protect yourself from risk and liabilities with indemnity insurance. Indemnity insurance protects you and your employees should someone sue you. Financial institutions should purchase a specific kind of indemnity insurance called Errors and Omissions (E&O) insurance. This protects the financial company from claims made by clients for inadequate or negligent work. It is often required by government regulatory bodies. Remember, however, that staying in compliance with all regulatory requirements is still your responsibility.

Part 5 Setting Up Shop.

1. Obtain financing. You will need to finance your company according to your business plan, using a combination of equity and debt financing. Initial startup costs will be used for meeting reserve requirements and the building or rental of office spaces. From there, much of the company's operating capital will be lent out to customers.

Be aware of Federal and State laws regulating the private solicitation of investors. Adherence to securities laws regarding the information provided to potential investors and the qualifications of the investor will apply in most circumstances.

Sources of debt financing include loans from the government and commercial lending institutions. Money borrowed with debt financing must be paid back over a period of time, usually with interest.

The Small Business Administration (SBA) partners with banks to offer government loans to business owners. However, these loans can only be used for the purchase of equipment, not lent out to others. The SBA helps lending institutions make long-term loans by guaranteeing a portion of the loan should the business default.

Finance companies face the problem of having to raise large amounts of initial funding to be successful. They also often have to deal with a slew of other challenges before they become profitable. Without accounting properly for issues like fraud, it's very easy for a finance company to go out of business.

Note: Investors may want to provide financing in exchange for equity in the company. This is called equity financing, and it makes the investors shareholders in the company. You don’t have to repay these investors, but you do have to share profits with them.

2. Choose your location. A finance company should make a positive impression on customers. Customers looking for a loan will want to do business in a place that projects a trustworthy and sound image. Take into account the reputation of the neighborhood or of a particular building and how it will appear to customers. Also consider how customers will reach you and the proximity of your competitors. If your target customers are small local businesses, for example, they may not want to drive to a remote location or deal with heavy city traffic to meet with you.

If you are not sure, contact your local planning agency to find out if your desired location is zoned for commercial use, especially if you plan to operate out of your home.

Leasing commercial office space is expensive. Consider your finances, not only what you can afford, but also other expenses such as renovations and property taxes.

In today's connected world, it's also possible to run a finance company online, without a location for physical interaction with customers. While you'll likely still need an office for your employees, not having a retail location can save you some regulatory hassle expense.

3. Hire and retain employees. Write effective job descriptions so employees and applicants understand their role in the company and what your expectations of them are. Compile a compensation package, including required and optional fringe benefits. Compose an employee handbook that communicates company policies, compensation, schedules and standards of conduct.

Perform pre-employment background checks to make informed decisions about whom you hire. Financial planners and advisors require a specific educational background and are subject to rigorous certification requirements. Consider obtaining credit reports to show how financially responsible a candidate is.

4. Pay your taxes. Obtain an Employee Identification Number (EIN) from the IRS. This is also known as your Federal Tax Identification Number. Determine your federal and state tax obligations. State tax obligations include income taxes and employment taxes. All states also require payment of workers' compensation insurance and unemployment insurance taxes, and some also require payment of disability insurance.

5. Create loan packages for your clients. Decide if you are going to offer revolving or fixed-amount types of credit. Think about your target customers and what kinds of loans they would need. Homeowners and individuals may seek mortgages, auto loans, student loans or personal loans. Entrepreneurs may seek small business loans. Consolidated loans may help customers who are struggling to manage their finances.

Recognize that your loan offerings, rates, and terms will need to be constantly reworked with the changing loan market. Some of these items may also be subject to various regulations, so consult your legal counsel before finalizing your offerings.

6. Market your new finance company. Target your marketing efforts towards your chosen niche of clients. Marketing includes networking and advertising, but there are also other ways of letting potential customers know you have set up shop. Become a familiar face in your local business community by attending and speaking at events sponsored by the local chamber of commerce. Publish communications such as a newsletter or e-zine. Participate in social networking on sites like Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter.

Note: In order to become successful, you'll have to attract both depositors and loan customers, so be sure to offer deals on both ends. Without attracting depositor, you will have no capital to lend out to customers.


December 01, 2019


How to Find Great Companies to Invest In.

Smart investors put their money in reputable companies and investigate new companies thoroughly before committing their money. By carefully considering the qualities of the companies you invest in and incorporating your own knowledge of the market, you can make informed decisions in the hopes of choosing stocks of good quality and value. Be aware, however, this is no small task. Mutual fund companies and the like dedicate entire teams of experts whose full-time jobs are to research and understand how to invest in companies. Be sure you have the time and inclination to do this yourself, as well as the willingness to take the risks of doing so.

Method 1 Buying What You Know.
1. Stay within your circle of competence. If you have a field of expertise, you may be best able to identify quality within that area. Experience can provide you with the insights you need to make more informed choices. For example, if you work in retail, you may be better positioned to determine if you should invest in companies like Walmart, Target, or Best Buy, than you are in evaluating the latest bio-tech company.
Having competence in a certain area doesn't have to come from workplace experience. If you're a techie who spends his time buying and reading about the latest gadgets, you can draw on the information you obtain to help you make decisions on how to invest in the technology sector.
2. Focus on a few industries or markets. These can be either your direct area of competence or other areas that you are interested in investing in. The important thing is to realize that you can't keep track of everything going on in the global economy. Large financial institutions have whole departments for doing this so don't think you can do it on your own. Instead, narrow your focus to include only a few key industries or markets.
This doesn't mean you should avoid focusing on individual companies. You should always investigate every company you plan to invest in individually.
3. Stay up to date on news within that industry. Examples of quality sources for this are online finance websites like Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal. They'll give you up-to-date information on many of the goings-on in various sectors of the economy and the World. Again, focus your energy on a few key areas and become knowledgeable on the happenings in them. Look for things like trends, mergers, acquisitions, relevant legislation changes, and any global events that may affect your chosen market.
4. Plan ahead. Identify a company that you think stands to benefit from some change or trend in the market. Look ahead for when this change will take place and move around your money to prepare to invest in the company. For example, if you think that a new product being released by your favorite tech company is going to be a huge success, you may choose to invest in the company before the rest of the world realizes this and drives up the stock price.

Method 2 Investing in Companies with Competitive Advantages.
1. Understand competitive advantages. There are some companies that manage to be consistently profitable and successful in their industry over many years. These companies have succeeded in building a "moat" around them to keep their competitors away. This distance from their competitors is also known as a competitive advantage. Competitive advantages allow these companies to make money and retain customers more easily than others. In turn, these companies are able to provide greater value and return to their shareholders.
An investment in one of these companies allows you to participate in their competitive advantage. While they may not grow as quickly as smaller companies, they often can be less likely to fail in economic downturns and can provide consistent growth throughout the years to come.
Blue-chip stocks are examples of large, successful companies with competitive advantages. These companies have provided consistent growth or dividends over many years and are listed on large stock indexes.
2. Invest in trusted brands. Think Harley Davidson, Coke, BMW. These are brand names etched in the public mind as the best in their class. These companies can raise their prices on the strength of their brands, resulting in deeper profits.These companies are so well-known and essential that they are unlikely to lose a significant amount of customers to competitors.
3. Find companies with high switching costs. When was the last time you switched banks? Or cell phone providers? These services retain customers because switching between them is more time-consuming than it's worth. Companies that have high switching costs can be expected to hold on to their customers longer than companies that don't.
4. Search for economies of scale. Companies that are able to make products and sell them at much lower prices than their competition automatically attract customers -- lots of them -- as long as quality is not compromised. In a crowded market, this is generally the result of economies of scale, a phenomenon where a large company is able to experience lower production costs solely due to its size. Walmart and and Dell have perfected this concept to a science.
5. Invest in legal monopolies. Some companies are granted legal (if temporary) monopolies by the government. Large pharmaceutical companies and manufacturing companies with patents are able to bring a truly unique product to market. Companies that own copyrights, drilling rights, mining rights, and other forms of protected property are often the sole producer or service provider in their area. Thus, these companies can raise prices without fear of losing customers, resulting in higher profits.
Be sure to check how long the company's patent or usage rights are in effect. Some of these are temporary and when they go, there's a chance the company's profit will go with them.
6. Look for opportunities for easy growth. Some companies are easily scalable. That is, their products or services with the potential to network or add more users over time. Adobe has become the de facto standard in publishing; Microsoft's Excel has done the same in spreadsheets. eBay is a great example of a user network. Each additional user to the network costs the company virtually nothing. The additional revenues that come in as the network expands go straight to the bottom line.
For a more current example, consider Netflix. As a streaming service, they make more money for each subscriber, even as their costs remain virtually the same. That way, as they gain more users they will continue to grow in profitability, assuming they don't choose to increase costs significantly.

Method 3 Evaluating Company Performance and Valuation.
1. Check the quality of management. How competent is the management running the company? More importantly, how focused are they toward the company, customers, investors, and employees? In this age of rampant corporate greed, it's always a great idea to research the management of any company you're thinking of investing in. Newspaper and magazine articles are good places to get this information.
This doesn't just mean that management has provided good financial results recently. Rather, look for indications of other important qualities like responsiveness, adaptability, capacity for innovation, and organizational ability.
2. Watch for management changes. A good leader can successfully turn around a company that many consider to be a lost cause. Watch the news and financial reports for changes in management positions, especially CEOs. If you believe in the new CEO of a company, based on your research, you may choose to invest in that company. Here, you're essentially putting your faith in the person, not the company.
3. Avoid overvalued stocks. Even a great company can be overvalued. Learn to interpret financial statements and pick stocks with fundamental analysis to find companies the market has overvalued. Know that these companies may be some of the most buzzed-about and invested in companies around, but they are still overvalued and may experience drastic declines in price once their day in the spotlight is over.
One way to determine if a stock is overpriced is to examine its price-earnings-ratio. The price to earnings ratio can usually be found in the company's stock summary on financial websites. Generally, PE ratios are between 20-25, but this varies by industry.
To evaluate a company's PE ratio, search online for the average PE ratio in the company's industry. If the P/E ratio is over the industry average, the company could be overpriced in view of its earnings.
4. Buy undervalued stocks. Undervalued stocks are those that are trading at a lower value than their financial information would indicate. These may be companies that have only started to do well recently. In these cases, the market has not yet caught up with their newfound success. To identify stocks with room to grow in value, you can also use the price-earnings ratio mentioned above and look for companies with low PE ratios compared to the industry average.
You can also look for companies with a price-to-book-value of less than 2. The price-to-book ratio is the price of the company divided by the total value of its assets minus its liabilities and intangible assets. A low ratio may indicate that the company is relatively cheap.

FAQ.

Question : How can I know a company's management?
Answer : A company's stock prospectus will list its management personnel. For suggestions on researching company management, go here: Investopedia.com/articles/02/062602.asp.

Tips.
Start thinking about everyday companies in terms of this new framework.
Learn the basics of reading financial statements. Check the profitability of companies you're interested in. Check their debt position. See if they have been growing steadily.
Visit the company’s website and other financial websites that will give you insight into the stock.
While it may be advantageous to invest in companies you know, do not limit yourself to just one or two sectors of the economy. Try to research companies in a variety of sectors. Doing so further diversifies your portfolio to better insulate it from a downturn in a single sector or company.

Warnings.
Be aware of stock tips: Whether they come from someone you see on TV or someone you meet in person, these are more often not well-researched or are even based on someone's grandiose theory about getting rich quick. They may also be provided by salesmen paid to inflate a stock's price to allow a company to raise as much capital as possible.
Jumping into buying stocks in a company without doing thorough research can be a quick way to lose your money.
Investing always carries risk. Even if you do everything right, there's no guarantee that you'll make money.
April 07, 2020

How Warren Buffett Makes Decisions – The Secret to His Investing Success.

By Michael Lewis.

Warren Buffett is considered by many to be the most successful stock investor ever. Despite the occasional mistake, Buffett’s investing strategies are unrivaled. In 1956, at age 26, his net worth was estimated at $140,000. MarketWatch estimated his net worth at the end of 2016 to be $73.1 billion, an astounding compound annual growth rate of 24.5%. By contrast, the S&P 500 has grown at an average rate of 6.79% and most mutual funds have failed to equal the annual S&P 500 return consistently.

Buffett has achieved these returns while most of his competition failed. According to John Bogle, one of the founders and former Chairman of The Vanguard Group, “The evidence is compelling that equity fund returns lag the stock market by a substantial amount, largely accounted for by cost, and that fund investor returns lag fund returns by a substantial amount, largely accounted for by counterproductive market timing and fund selection.”

Since the evidence shows that Buffet has been an exceptional investor, market observers and psychologists have searched for an explanation to his success. Why has Warren Buffett achieved extraordinary gains compared to his peers? What is his secret?

A Long-Term Perspective. Why Some People Are More Successful Than Others.
Philosophers and scientists have long sought to determine why some people are more successful than others at building wealth. Their findings are varied and often contradictory.

For centuries, people believed their fate, including wealth and status, depended upon the capricious favor of pagan gods – more specifically, the favor of Tyche (Greek) or Fortuna (Roman). Expansion of the Judeo-Christian-Islamic religions and their concepts of “free will” led to the general belief that individuals could control their destiny through their actions, or lack thereof.

Modern science, specifically psychology and neuroscience, advanced a theory of biological determinants that control human decisions and actions. This theory suggests that free will might not be as “free” as previously thought. In other words, we may be predisposed to certain behaviors that affect the ways we process information and make decisions.

Evolutionary biologists and psychologists have developed a variety of different theories to explain human decision-making. Some claim that the ability to make superior decisions with favorable outcomes is the result of eons of natural selection, which favors individuals with exceptional genetics, such as those with high IQs.

Despite the perception that a high IQ is necessary for building wealth, study after study indicates that the link between super-intelligence and financial success is dubious at best:

Dr. Jay Zagorsky’s study in the Intelligence Journal found no strong relationship between total wealth and intelligence: “People don’t become rich just because they are smart.”
Mensa members rank in the top 2% of the brightest people on earth, but most are not rich and are “certainly not the top 1% financially,” according to an organization spokesperson. A study by Eleanor Laise of the Mensa Investment Club noted that the fund averaged 2.5% per annum for a 15-year period, while the S&P 500 averaged 15.3% during the same time. One member admitted that “we can screw up faster than anyone,” while another described their investment strategy as “buy low, sell lower.”
Buffett has never claimed to be a genius. When asked what he would teach the next generation of investors at the 2009 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, he replied, “In the investing business, if you have an IQ of 150, sell 30 points to someone else. You do not need to be a genius . . . It’s not a complicated game; you don’t need to understand math. It’s simple, but not easy.”

He later expanded the thought: “If calculus or algebra were required to be a great investor, I’d have to go back to delivering newspapers.”

Economists’ Rational Man.
Economists have historically based their models upon the presumption that humans make logical decisions. In other words, a person faced with a choice balances certainties against risks. The theory of expected value presumes that people facing choices will choose the one that has the largest combination of expected success (probability) and value (impact).

A rational person would always model the industrious ant in Aesop’s fable, not the insouciant grasshopper. The idea that people would make decisions contrary to their interests is inconceivable to economists.

To be fair, most economists recognize the flaws in their models. Swedish economist Lars Syll notes that “a theoretical model is nothing more than an argument that a set of conclusions follows from a fixed set of assumptions.”

Economists presume stable systems and simple assumptions, while the real world is in constant flux. Paraphrasing H.L Mencken’s famous quote, there is always a simple economic model [well-known solution] for every human problem. This notion is neat, plausible, and wrong.

Psychologists’ Natural Man.
According to Harvard professor Daniel Lieberman, humans are naturally inclined to seek the solutions that require the least expenditure of energy.

In the real world, we have difficulty deferring immediate gratification for future security, selecting investments best suited to our long-term goals and risk profile, and acting in our best financial interests. Psychological research suggests that the difficulty is rooted in our brains – how we think and make decisions.

Researchers Susan Fiske and Shelley Taylor postulate that humans are “cognitive misers,” preferring to do as little thinking as possible. The brain uses more energy than any other human organ, accounting for up to 20% of the body’s total intake.

When decisions involve issues more remote from our current state in distance or time, there is a tendency to defer making a choice. This impulse accounts for the failure of people to save in the present since the payoff is years in the future.

As far as we know, Mr. Buffett’ brain is similar to other investors and he experiences the same impulses and anxieties as others. While he experiences the tensions that arise in everyone when making decisions, he has learned to control impulses and make reasoned, rational decisions.

Our Two-Brain System.
The studies by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky provide new insight into decision-making, perhaps the key to Buffett’s success. They theorize that each human uses two systems of mental processing (System 1 and System 2) that work together seamlessly most of the time. Khaneman’s book, “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” outlines these two systems.

System 1 – Think Fast.
System 1, also referred to as the “emotional brain,” developed as the limbic system in the brain of early humans. Sometimes called the “mammalian brain,” it includes the amygdala, the organ where emotions and memories arise.

Neuroscientist Paul MacLean hypothesized that the limbic system was one of the first steps in the evolution of the human brain, developed as part of its fight or flight circuitry. Through necessity, our primitive ancestors had to react quickly to danger when seconds could mean escape or death.

The emotional brain is always active, capable of making quick decisions with scant information and conscious effort. It continuously makes and remakes models – heuristic frames – of the world around it, relying on the senses and memories of past events.

For example, an experienced driver coordinates steering and speed of an automobile on an empty highway almost effortlessly, even casually. The driver can simultaneously carry on conversations with passengers or listen to the radio without losing control of the vehicle. The driver is relying on the decisions of System 1.

The emotional brain is also the source of intuition, that “inner voice” or gut feeling we sometimes get without being consciously aware of the underlying reasons for its occurrence. We rely primarily on this system for the hundreds of everyday decisions we make – what to wear, where to sit, identifying a friend. Paradoxically, System 1 is a source of creativity as well as habits.

System 2 – Think Slow.
System 2, also called the “logical brain,” is slower, more deliberate, and analytical, rationally balancing the benefits and costs of each choice using all the available information.

System 2 decisions take place in the latest evolutionary addition to the brain – the neocortex. It is believed to be the center of humans’ extraordinary cognitive activity. System 2 was slower to evolve in humans and requires more energy to exercise, indicating the old saw “Thinking is hard” is a fact.

Kahneman characterizes System 2 as “the conscious, reasoning self that has beliefs, makes choices, and decides what to think about and do.” It is in charge of decisions about the future, while System 1 is more active in the moment. While our emotional brain can generate complex patterns of ideas, it is also freewheeling, impulsive, and often inappropriate.

Fortunately, System 1 works well most of the time; its models of everyday situations are accurate, its short-term predictions are usually correct, and its initial reactions to challenges are swift and mostly appropriate.

System 2 is more controlled, rule-based, and analytical, continuously monitoring the quality of the answers provided by System 1. Our logical brain becomes active when it needs to override an automatic judgment of System 1.

For example, the earlier driver proceeding casually down the road is more focused when passing a semi-truck on a narrow two-lane road or in heavy traffic, actively processing the changing conditions and responding with deliberate actions. His or her mental effort is accompanied by detectable physical changes, such as tensed muscles, increased heart rate, and dilated pupils. In these circumstances, System 2 is in charge.

The logical brain normally functions in low-effort mode, always in reserve until System 1 encounters a problem it cannot solve or is required to act in a way that doesn’t come naturally. Solving for the product of 37 x 82 requires the deliberate processes of System 2, while the answer to a simple addition problem, such as the sum of 2 + 2, is a System 1 function. The answer is not calculated, but summoned from memory.

Neuropsychologists Abigail Baird and Jonathan Fugelsang’s 2004 study indicates that System 2 does not fully develop until adulthood. Their findings suggest the reason that adolescents are more likely to engage in risky behavior is because they lack the mental hardware to weigh decisions rationally. For most people, the two systems work together seamlessly, transitioning from one to the other as needed.

The Buffett Style.
The Oracle of Omaha’s key to investing is understanding and coordinating the two systems of decision-making. Buffett relies upon System 1 to intuitively seek out investments he finds attractive and understands.

When deciding on a possible investment, he recommends, “If you need a computer or a calculator to decide whether to invest, then don’t do it – invest in something that shouts at you – if it is not obvious, walk away . . . If you don’t know the business, the financials won’t help at all.”

Avoid the Traps of Thinking Fast.
Master investors like Buffett simplify their decisions by relying upon System 1, and it serves them well in most cases. However, they recognize that their emotional decision-making system is also prone to biases and errors, including:

Mental Framing.
Our brains, equipped with millions of sensory inputs, create interpretive mental “frames” or filters to make sense of data. These mental filters help us understand and respond to the events around us. Framing is a heuristic – a mental shortcut – that provides a quick, easy way to process information. Unfortunately, framing can also provide a limited, simplistic view of reality that can lead to flawed decisions.

The choices we make depend on our perspective, or the frames surrounding the problem. For example, research shows that people are likely to proceed with a decision if the outcome is presented with a 50% chance of success and decline if the consequence is expressed with a 50% chance of failure, even though the probability is the same in either case.

Most investors incorrectly frame stock investments by thinking of the stock market as a stream of electronic bits of data independent of the underlying businesses the data represents. The constant flow of information about prices, economies, and expert opinions triggers our emotional brains and stimulates quick decisions to reap profits (pleasure) or prevent loss (pain).

Buffett recommends investors not think of an investment in stock as “a piece of paper whose price wiggles around daily” and is a candidate for sale whenever you get nervous.

Short-term thinking – System 1 – often leads to trading stocks, not investing in companies. Day traders – those who buy and sell stocks within a single market session – are unusually unsuccessful, according to day trading studies by the University of California-Berkeley:

80% of all day traders quit within the first two years.
Active traders underperform the stock market average by 6.5% annually.
Only 1.6% of day traders make a net profit each year.
Financial data is especially susceptible to framing. Companies always express earnings and losses positively, either as an increase compared to past results or a smaller loss than previous periods. Trends can be manipulated based upon the comparison point and time interval.

Even the words we use to describe a choice establish a frame for assessing value. Characterizations like “high growth,” “turnaround,” or “cyclical” trigger the subconscious stereotypes we have for such terms without regard to the underlying financial data.

Framing can lead rational people to make irrational decisions based upon their projections of the outcome. This accounts for the difference between economics’ rational man and psychology’s natural man.

Buffett has learned to frame his investment opportunities appropriately to avoid short-term, arbitrary outcomes:

“We [Berkshire Hathaway] select such investments on a long-term basis, weighing the same factors as would be involved in the purchase of 100% of an operating business.”
“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”
“If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it 10 minutes.”
Loss Aversion.
Kahneman and Tversky determined that in human decision-making, losses loom larger than gains. Their experiments suggest that the pain of loss is twice as a great as the pleasure from gain. This feeling arises in the amygdala, which is responsible for generating fearful emotions and memories of painful associations.

The fact that investors are more likely to sell stocks with profit than those with a loss, when the converse strategy would be more logical, is evidence of the power of loss aversion.

While Buffett sells his positions infrequently, he cuts his losses when he realizes he has made a judgment error. In 2016, Buffett substantially reduced or liquidated his position in three companies, because he believed they had lost their competitive edge:

Wal-Mart: Despite his regrets that he had not purchased more shares earlier, he has been a long-time investor in the company. The rationale for the recent sales is thought to be due to the transition of the retail market from bricks-and-mortar stores to online. A Pew Research Center study found almost 80% of Americans today are online shoppers versus 22% in 2000.
Deere & Co: Buffett’s initial purchases of the agricultural equipment manufacturer began in the third quarter of 2012. By 2016, he owned almost 22-million shares with an average cost of less than $80 per share. He liquidated his shares during the last two quarters of 2016 when prices were more than $100 per share. Buffett may have felt that farm income, having fallen by half since 2013 due to worldwide bumper crops, was unlikely to improve, leaving the premier provider of agricultural equipment unable to continue to expand its profits.
Verizon: Having owned the stock since 2014, he liquidated his entire position in 2016, due to a loss of confidence in management after the company’s questionable acquisition of Yahoo and the continued turmoil in the wireless carrier market.
Our distaste for losses can create anxiety and trick us into acting prematurely because we fear being left out in a rising market or staying too long in a bear market. Buffett and Munger practice “assiduity – the ability to sit on your ass and do nothing until a great opportunity presents itself.”

Representativeness.
People tend to ignore statistics and focus on stereotypes. An example in the Association of Psychological Science Journal illustrates this common bias. When asked to select the proper occupation of a shy, withdrawn man who takes little interest in the real world from a list including farmer, salesman, pilot, doctor, and librarian, most people incorrectly chose librarian. Their decision ignores the obvious: there are many more farmers in the world than librarians.

Buffett focuses on finding the “inevitables” – great companies with insurmountable advantages – rather than following conventional wisdom and accepted patterns of thinking favored by System 1’s decision-making process. In his 1996 letter to investors, he defines Coca-Cola and Gillette as two companies that “will dominate their fields worldwide for an investment lifetime.”

He is especially wary of “imposters” – those companies that seem invincible but lack real competitive advantage. For every inevitable, there are dozens of imposters. According to Buffett, General Motors, IBM, and Sears lost their seemingly insurmountable advantages when values declined in “the presence of hubris or of boredom that caused the attention of the managers to wander.”

Buffett recognizes that companies in high-tech or embryonic industries capture our imaginations – and excite our emotional brains – with their promise of extraordinary gains. However, he prefers investments where he is “certain of a good result [rather] than hopeful of a great one” – an example of the logical brain at work.

Anchoring.
Evolution is the reason humans rely too heavily on the first or a single bit of information they receive – their “first impression.” In a world of deadly perils, delaying action can lead to pain or death. Therefore, first impressions linger in our minds and affect subsequent decisions. We subconsciously believe that what happened in the past will happen in the future, leading us to exaggerate the importance of the initial purchase price in subsequent decisions to sell a security.

Investors unknowingly make decisions based on anchoring data, such as previous stock prices, past years’ earnings, consensus analyst projections or expert opinions, and prevailing attitudes about the direction of stock prices, whether in a bear or bull market. While some characterize this effect as following a trend, it is a System 1 shortcut based on partial information, rather than the result of System 2 analysis.

Buffett often goes against the trend of popular opinion, recognizing that “most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.” When making a decision based on historical data, he notes, “If past history was all that is needed to play the game of money, the richest people would be librarians.”

Buffett’s approach is neither to follow the herd nor purposely do the opposite of the consensus. Whether people concur with his analysis isn’t important. His goal is simple: acquire, at a reasonable price, a business with excellent economics and able, honest management.

Despite considering IBM an “imposter” in 1996, Berkshire Hathaway began acquiring the stock in 2011, consistently adding to Buffett’s position over the years. By the end of the first quarter in 2017, Berkshire owned more than 8% of the outstanding shares with a value greater than $14 billion.

While his analysis remains confidential, Buffett believes that the investors have discounted the future of IBM too severely and failed to note its transition to a cloud-based business might lead to brighter growth prospects and a high degree of customer retention. Also, the company pays a dividend almost twice the level of the S&P 500 and actively repurchases shares on the open market.

The growing IBM position – quadrupling since the initial purchase – is evidence that Buffett isn’t afraid to take action when he is comfortable with his analysis: “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.”

Availability.
Humans tend to estimate the likelihood of an event occurring based on the ease with which it comes to mind. For example, a 2008 study of State lottery sales showed that stores that sell a publicized, winning lottery ticket experience a 12% to 38% increase in sales for up to 40 weeks following the announcement of the winner.

People visit stores selling a winning ticket more often due to the easy recall of the win, and a bias that the location is “lucky” and more likely to produce another winning ticket than a more convenient store down the street.

This bias frequently affects decisions about stock investments. In other words, investor perceptions lag reality. Momentum, whether upward or downward, continues well past the emergence of new facts. Investors with losses are slow to reinvest, often sitting on the sidelines until prices have recovered most of their decline (irrational pessimism).

Conversely, reinforcement from a bull market encourages continued purchasing even after the economic cycle turns down (irrational optimism). Therefore, investors tend to buy when prices are high and sell when they are low.

The S&P 500 fell 57% between late 2007 and March 2009, devastating investor portfolios and liquidating stocks and mutual funds. Even though the index had recovered its losses by mid-2012, individual investors had not returned to equity investments, either staying in cash or purchasing less risky bonds.

At the time, Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., noted, “Even three-and-a-half years into this bull market and the gains we’ve seen since June [2012], it has not turned this psychology [of fear] around.” In other words, many individuals took the loss but did not participate in the subsequent recovery.

Buffett has always tried to follow the advice of his mentor, Benjamin Graham, who said, “Buy not on optimism [or sell due to pessimism], but on arithmetic.” Graham advocated objective analysis, not emotions, when buying or selling stocks: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine [emotional], but in the long run it is a weighing machine [logical].”

Affect.
We tend to assess probabilities based on our feelings about the options. In other words, we judge an option less risky solely because we favor it and vice versa. This bias can lead people to buy stock in their employer when other investments would be more appropriate for their goals. Overconfidence in one’s ability magnifies the negative impact of affect.

For example, Buffett invested $350 million in preferred stock of U.S. Airways in 1989, despite his belief that airlines and airline manufacturers had historically been a death trap for investors. The investment followed a dinner with Ed Colodny, the CEO of the airline, who impressed Buffett. Certain that the preferred stock was safe and the airline had a competitive seat cost (around 12 cents per mile), he made the investment.

Buffett later admitted his analysis “was superficial and wrong,” perhaps due to hubris and his like for Colodny. An upstart Texas airline (Southwest Airlines) subsequently upset the competitive balance in the industry with seat costs of 8 cents per mile, causing Berkshire Hathaway to write down its investment by 75%.

Buffett was lucky to make a significant profit on the investment ($216 million), primarily because the airline subsequently and unexpectedly returned to profitability and was able to pay the accrued dividends and redeem its preferred stock.

Final Word.
Mr. Buffett’s investment style has been criticized by many over the decades. Trend followers and traders are especially critical of his record and philosophy, claiming that his results are the result of “luck, given the relatively few trades that made him so wealthy.”

Hedge fund manager Michael Steinhardt, who Forbes called “Wall Street’s Greatest Trader,” said during a CNBC interview that Buffett is “the greatest PR person of all time. And he has managed to achieve a snow job that has conned virtually everyone in the press to my knowledge.”

Before following the advice of those who are quick to condemn Buffett’s investment style, it should be noted that no investment manager has come close to rivaling Buffet’s record over the past 60 years. While Steinhardt’s returns are similar to those of Buffett, his were for a period of 28 years – less than one-half of Buffett’s cycle.

Despite their antipathy, both men would agree that System 2 decision-making is critical to investment success. Steinhardt, in his autobiography “No Bull: My Life In and Out of Markets,” said that his results required “knowing more and perceiving the situation better than others did . . . Reaching a level of understanding that allows one to feel competitively informed well ahead of changes in ‘street’ views, even anticipating minor stock price changes, may justify at times making unpopular investments.”

Buffett appears to agree, insisting on taking the time for introspection and thought. “I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in American business. I read and think. So I do more reading and thinking, and make fewer impulsive decisions than most people in business.”

Do you take the time to gather facts and make carefully analyzed investment decisions? Perhaps you are more comfortable going with the flow. What is your decision-making preference and how has it worked out for you thus far?
Do you know anyone who has owned the same stock for 20 years? Warren Buffett has held three stocks – Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, and American Express – for more than 20 years. He has owned one stock – Moody’s – for 15 years, and three other stocks – Proctor & Gamble, Wal-Mart, and U.S. Bancorp – for over a decade.

To be sure, Mr. Buffett’s 50-year track record is not perfect, as he has pointed out from time to time:

Berkshire Hathaway: Pique at CEO Seabird Stanton motivated his takeover of the failing textile company. Buffett later admitted the purchase was “the dumbest stock I ever bought.”
Energy Future Holding: Buffett lost a billion dollars in bonds of the bankrupt Texas electric utility. He admitted he made a huge mistake not consulting his long-term business partner Charlie Munger before closing the purchase: “I would be unwilling to share the credit for my decision to invest with anyone else. That was just a mistake – a significant mistake.”
Wal-Mart: At the 2003 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffet admitted his attempt to time the market had backfired: “We bought a little, and it moved up a little, and I thought maybe it would come back. That thumb-sucking has cost us in the current area of $10 billion.”
Even with these mistakes, Buffett has focused on making big bets that he intends to hold for decades to come. A longer time horizon has allowed him to take advantage of opportunities few others have the patience for. But how has he been able to make these successful bets in the first place?

source : https://www.moneycrashers.com/warren-buffett-decisions-secret-investing-success.
August 14, 2020