How to Understand Personal Finance Basics

How to Understand Personal Finance Basics.

Understanding your personal finances can be very overwhelming, particularly if you’re just starting out. It is tough to know how best to handle your money, how to go about paying off debt, and where and when to invest. By following some basic steps for doing these things, as well as saving for emergencies and retirement and insuring the assets you’ve worked hard to obtain, you can begin to understand your personal finances and become more confident in your ability to make good decisions regarding them.





Learning How to Create a Budget.



Gather your financial statements and information. Creating a budget is one of the most important aspects of personal finance. A solid budget allows you to plan for how you’ll spend the money you bring in each month and illustrates your spending patterns. To begin, gather all the financial information you can, including bank statements, pay stubs, credit card bills, utility bills, investment account statements, and any other information you can think of.

Most people make monthly budgets so your goal is to figure out how much you make in a month and what your monthly expenses are. The more detail you can provide, the better your budget will be.



Record your monthly income. After gathering all of your financial data, separate out your sources of income. Record the amount of income you bring home in a month. Be sure to include any side jobs you have.

If your income varies from month to month, it may be helpful to figure out your average monthly income for the last six months or so.



List your fixed monthly expenses. Next, look over your financial documents and record any fixed expenses you have, or those that are essential and do not change much from month to month.

Fixed expenses can include things like mortgage payments or rent, credit card payments, car payments, and essential utilities like electric, water, and sewage.



List your variable monthly expenses. You also need to record your variable monthly expenses, which are items for which the amount of money you spend each month varies. These expenses are not necessarily essential and are likely where you will make adjustments to your spending in your budget.

Variable expenses can include things like groceries, gasoline, gym memberships, and eating out.



Total your monthly income and expenses. Once you have recorded all of your income and expenses, both fixed and variable, total each category. Ultimately, you want your income to be larger than your expenses. If it is, you can then decide where it is best for you to spend your excess income. If your expenses are more than your income, you will need to make adjustments to your budget to cut your spending or increase your income.



Adjust your variable expenses to hit your goal. If your budget shows you are spending more than you are earning in income, look at your variable expenses to find places you can cut back on spending, since these items are usually non-essential.

For example, if you are eating out four nights a week, you may have to cut this back to two nights a week. This will free up money you can put toward essential expenses like college loans or credit card debt.

In addition, you may be paying unnecessary monthly fees, like overdraft or late fees. If you are spending money on these types of fees, work on making your payments on time and keeping a bit of a cushion in your bank account.

Alternatively, you can work on earning more instead of spending less. Evaluate whether or not you can pick up a few extra hours of work a week, work overtime, or work any side jobs to increase the amount of money you’re bringing in each month.



Review your budget every month. At the end of each month, take some time and review your spending over the past month. Did you stick to your budget? If not, where did you veer off course? Pinpointing where you are exceeding your budget will help you figure out what kind of spending you need to pay attention to most. Reviewing your budget can also be encouraging if you find you are sticking to it. You may find that it’s extremely motivating seeing the amount of money you saved by cutting back the number of days you eat out a week, for example.













Strategizing to Pay Down Debt..



Pay more than the minimum amount due each month. Even following a strict budget doesn’t mean you can totally avoid debt. Large purchases, like cars, school, and houses often require you to take out a significant loan. In addition, it can be easy to rack up credit card debt quickly. One of the personal finance basics you must understand is how to take care of this debt as quickly as possible. The first step to doing this is to pay more than the minimum payment as often as you can.

For example, say the minimum payment on your car loan is $50 a month. Paying even $60 a month toward this loan can help you pay it off sooner and cut down on the amount you pay in finance charges over time. The more you can pay above the minimum, the better.



Transfer credit card balances with high annual percentage rates. If you have a credit card for which you are paying a high annual percentage rate (APR), it might be a good idea to look into transferring this balance to a credit card that offers a lower APR or no APR for a certain amount of time. This way, your entire payment will be applied to your balance, not interest.

Read the fine print before transferring a balance. Most cards charge a transfer fee (3% of the balance, for example) and only offer 0% APR for a limited amount of time (12 or 18 months, for example). Make sure you understand the terms of your new agreement and shop around for the best option before transferring your balance.



Calculate the amount of debt on each credit card. If you have multiple credit cards, compare the amount of debt you have on each one. You can use this information in two different ways:

Some people believe paying off the credit card with the smallest balance first is best. The idea here is that getting the smaller amount of debt paid off will motivate you and allow you to focus on your remaining debt.

Alternatively, some people believe you should focus on paying off the largest balance because you will be paying the most in interest on this balance. To do this, you would try to make more than the minimum payment on this balance, while paying only the minimum on your smaller balance.

If possible, the best solution is to pay more than the minimum simultaneously on each balance.



Dedicate excess funds toward paying off debt. Once you are able to follow your monthly budget, dedicate any extra funds you have at the end of the month toward paying down your debt. It can be tempting to use this money to treat yourself to a fancy dinner or a new TV, but remember your long-term goals before doing this. In the long run, paying down debt will serve you better than treating yourself to something unnecessary.



Consolidate your debt. If you have multiple credit card accounts, student loans, a mortgage, a car loan, or any combination of these debts, consolidating them into one payment may help you manage them more easily. Typically, when you consolidate debt, you’ll get a debt consolidation loan. These loans usually have a lower interest rate and require lower monthly payments.

While consolidating your debt can make it easier to manage, it may also increase the amount you’ll pay in the long run because it extends your payments over a longer period of time.

If your credit score is not good, you may need a co-signer to be able to get a debt consolidation loan.

You can also consolidate your credit card debt by transferring all of your balances to a 0% APR credit card. If you think you can pay off your debt within 12 to 18 months, this might be a good option. However, if you think it will take you significantly longer to pay it off, this might not be a good option because the 0% APR is usually only good for 12 to 18 months.



Refinance your loans. Refinancing is generally a good option if your financial situation has improved since taking out your loan. Similar to consolidating your debt, refinancing your loans also consolidates your debts and may allow you to make lower monthly payments on your loans. Refinancing might also allow you to shorten the term of your loan to pay off your debts more quickly. In addition, depending on your financial situation, you may also be eligible for a lower interest rate.





Choose a student loan repayment plan. If you can afford it, the standard repayment plan is your best option for repaying federal loans. A standard plan requires you to pay the same amount every month over a ten year period. If you can’t afford the payments on a standard plan, however, the government offers two alternative categories of plans—income-driven and basic.

Income-driven repayment plans extend the terms of your loan to 20 or 25 years and require you to pay a certain percentage of your income toward your loan each month, rather than a fixed monthly payment. In addition, any amount still owed at the end of your loan term is forgiven.

Basic plans include standard, graduated, and extended repayment options. Standard is the best option if you can afford it, but graduated or extended plans may be right in some situations. Graduated plans start you off with low payments and gradually increase them over time. This plan can be good if you expect to make more money over the years. Extended plans extend the terms of your loan to 25 years, allowing you to make smaller payments each month, but pay more in interest over time.











Saving for Emergencies and Retirement.



Set up automatic deposits. It can be tough to commit to putting money into your savings account every month, but it is important to do so to ensure you have enough money for emergencies and for your future. If possible, make automatic payments into a saving account each month.

For example, set your bank account so it automatically transfers $50 from your checking account to savings account at least once a month.

Or, if your paycheck gets deposited directly into your account, you can usually set it up so that a certain portion (either a dollar amount or a percentage) is deposited straight into your savings account. Most professionals recommend putting 10 to 20 percent of your income towards savings each month.



Contribute to a retirement savings plan. You should start saving for retirement as soon as possible to ensure you’ll have enough money to live comfortably when you are done working. The amount you need to contribute to this savings account monthly depends on a number of different factors, like when you start saving, how much you are starting with, and whether or not you’re going to receive any kind of employer contribution.

Many employers offer a 401k, or a retirement savings plan, of some kind to their employees. A lot of companies will also match a percentage of the employee’s contributions into this account over time. If your employer offers a plan of this sort, start contributing to it as soon as you can, even if it is just a small amount.

If you are self-employed or your employer does not offer any kind of retirement savings plan, you can set up your own plan through investment websites or many banks.

Consult a financial advisor to figure out how much you should be putting away for retirement to reach your goals.[19]



Build an emergency fund. In addition to saving for retirement, you also need to save for emergencies, like losing a job, costly car repairs, or unexpected medical expenses. You can use your bank’s savings account for this emergency fund.

Financial professionals recommend you have enough in your savings account to cover a month and a half of living expenses for each person you claim as a dependent. For example, if you are married with one child, you should have enough to cover four and a half months of living expenses.











Investing for Beginners.



Invest in a Target Date Fund (TDF). Figuring out where to invest your money is one of the hardest parts of personal finance basics. Essentially, you want to invest in a variety of stocks, bonds, and treasuries—but which ones? Target Date Funds make this a little easier for you. A TDF is basically a hands-off retirement account. You enter the age you want to retire and the TDF will automatically spread the money you put into this account across a wide variety of stocks, bonds, and treasuries.

Some of the recommended companies through which to do this are Vanguard, Fidelity, and T. Rowe Price.



Diversify your investments. If you choose a more hands-on approach to investing, it is important to diversify your portfolio to reduce risk. Diversifying means that you choose a variety of stocks, bonds, and treasuries in which to invest. You should make sure your investments are spread over a number of different companies and industries. This way, if one company or industry suffers a financial downturn, you will only lose a portion of your investment, not the whole thing.



Invest in your 401k. As mentioned above, investing in a 401k provided by your company is a good idea. There are a couple really good things about this option. First of all, most of the time, the money you put into a 401k is deferred on your taxes until you take it out of the account. Some 401ks are taxed before investing, however, so check with your employer to find out which one you have. Second, your employer will often match the amount of money in your 401k (up to a certain amount) so you are, essentially, getting free money just for investing.

You should invest in a company match 401k even if you are in debt. The return you receive on this type of investing is often more than what your debt is.

The amount of money your company will match often depends how much you invest in your 401k. Usually, you have to hit certain investment thresholds, which will then determine the percentage your company will match.



Invest in a Roth IRA. Another investment opportunity offered by many employers is a Roth IRA. In a Roth IRA, you pay taxes up front on your investment. Investing in a Roth IRA is an especially good idea for young people with low incomes, considering the tax rate will likely increase in their lifetime. This type of investment can be very helpful because it will provide you with a pot of money for your retirement that won’t shrink due to taxes.]















Understanding Why to Insure Your Investments.



Get property insurance. You should invest in property insurance to protect your home, which is often one of your biggest assets. Property insurance is actually required if you have a mortgage. This type of insurance will protect you from having to pay out-of-pocket for any major unforeseen home repairs.

If you rent, it is just as important to invest in renter’s insurance. Your belongings can add up to a significant investment and getting renter’s insurance will help protect you in the event of a burglary, fire, flood, or other disaster.



Buy life insurance. Getting life insurance is especially important if you have a family or are married. Life insurance makes sure your income (or at least part of it) is supplemented in the event that you pass away. This is important because your family could face very tough financial situations if they are unable to make up for the portion of income you brought to the table.



Get health insurance. Health insurance premiums can be a small price to pay if you find yourself sick or seriously injured. Medical bills alone can put you in serious debt if you don’t have some sort of insurance policy. In addition, you’ll likely miss a significant amount of work if you are seriously injured, leaving you no way to pay these bills.

Many employers offer health insurance to their employees at a discounted rate. Usually only full-time employees are eligible to receive health insurance through the company, but some companies may offer it to part-time employees as well.

Buying health insurance independently, without the help of an employer, can be expensive. However, it is worth investing in to make sure you are not crippled by debt in the event you become sick or injured.[28]



Buy automobile insurance. Finally, you should invest in automobile insurance. In fact, it is required of anyone who owns a car in the United States. Auto insurance helps cover the cost to repair your car after an accident and medical bills for you and others involved. A major car accident can put you in debt from car repairs and time off work if you’re injured. It is also possible your assets can be seized to help pay for the other driver’s medical bills if the accident is your fault. Having automobile insurance can help diffuse some of these costs and help keep you out of debt.















Working with a Financial Planner.



Start now. One of the most important things you can do for your personal finances is to start thinking about them and working on them early. It may seem like you have plenty of time to save for retirement, but you can actually lose a lot of money in interest if you wait too long. Make financial planning a regular part of your life—like going to the doctor—and get started as soon as possible.

Get your significant other involved. If you are planning a future together, make sure to include your significant other in your planning. Talking to your partner and including them in the process will ensure you are both on the same page with your spending and saving habits and allow you to develop a plan that meets both of your needs.



Be proactive. Some people assume that everything will work out in the long-run and ignore negative cues about their finances. If you do this, however, you could set yourself up for a major loss. Instead, think about how negative financial situations, like severe drops in the stock market, might affect your financial security and plan alternative options.



Plan out the details. Many people see saving for retirement as a race to reach a certain amount of savings before the date they retire. This approach can be misleading, however. Instead, think about the things you’ll need to pay for, like housing, healthcare, eldercare, hobbies, transportation, and so on. Do your best to figure out how much these products and services will cost you and how you’ll finance them.





Tips.

Figuring out how to handle your personal finances can be very confusing whether you’re a beginner or not. It is a good idea to consult a financial planner to help you decide how to best handle your money.

November 13, 2019

how to understand personal finance basics

How to Understand Personal Finance Basics.

Understanding your personal finances can be very overwhelming, particularly if you’re just starting out. It is tough to know how best to handle your money, how to go about paying off debt, and where and when to invest. By following some basic steps for doing these things, as well as saving for emergencies and retirement and insuring the assets you’ve worked hard to obtain, you can begin to understand your personal finances and become more confident in your ability to make good decisions regarding them.





Learning How to Create a Budget.



Gather your financial statements and information. Creating a budget is one of the most important aspects of personal finance. A solid budget allows you to plan for how you’ll spend the money you bring in each month and illustrates your spending patterns. To begin, gather all the financial information you can, including bank statements, pay stubs, credit card bills, utility bills, investment account statements, and any other information you can think of.

Most people make monthly budgets so your goal is to figure out how much you make in a month and what your monthly expenses are. The more detail you can provide, the better your budget will be.



Record your monthly income. After gathering all of your financial data, separate out your sources of income. Record the amount of income you bring home in a month. Be sure to include any side jobs you have.

If your income varies from month to month, it may be helpful to figure out your average monthly income for the last six months or so.



List your fixed monthly expenses. Next, look over your financial documents and record any fixed expenses you have, or those that are essential and do not change much from month to month.

Fixed expenses can include things like mortgage payments or rent, credit card payments, car payments, and essential utilities like electric, water, and sewage.



List your variable monthly expenses. You also need to record your variable monthly expenses, which are items for which the amount of money you spend each month varies. These expenses are not necessarily essential and are likely where you will make adjustments to your spending in your budget.

Variable expenses can include things like groceries, gasoline, gym memberships, and eating out.



Total your monthly income and expenses. Once you have recorded all of your income and expenses, both fixed and variable, total each category. Ultimately, you want your income to be larger than your expenses. If it is, you can then decide where it is best for you to spend your excess income. If your expenses are more than your income, you will need to make adjustments to your budget to cut your spending or increase your income.



Adjust your variable expenses to hit your goal. If your budget shows you are spending more than you are earning in income, look at your variable expenses to find places you can cut back on spending, since these items are usually non-essential.

For example, if you are eating out four nights a week, you may have to cut this back to two nights a week. This will free up money you can put toward essential expenses like college loans or credit card debt.

In addition, you may be paying unnecessary monthly fees, like overdraft or late fees. If you are spending money on these types of fees, work on making your payments on time and keeping a bit of a cushion in your bank account.

Alternatively, you can work on earning more instead of spending less. Evaluate whether or not you can pick up a few extra hours of work a week, work overtime, or work any side jobs to increase the amount of money you’re bringing in each month.



Review your budget every month. At the end of each month, take some time and review your spending over the past month. Did you stick to your budget? If not, where did you veer off course? Pinpointing where you are exceeding your budget will help you figure out what kind of spending you need to pay attention to most. Reviewing your budget can also be encouraging if you find you are sticking to it. You may find that it’s extremely motivating seeing the amount of money you saved by cutting back the number of days you eat out a week, for example.













Strategizing to Pay Down Debt..



Pay more than the minimum amount due each month. Even following a strict budget doesn’t mean you can totally avoid debt. Large purchases, like cars, school, and houses often require you to take out a significant loan. In addition, it can be easy to rack up credit card debt quickly. One of the personal finance basics you must understand is how to take care of this debt as quickly as possible. The first step to doing this is to pay more than the minimum payment as often as you can.

For example, say the minimum payment on your car loan is $50 a month. Paying even $60 a month toward this loan can help you pay it off sooner and cut down on the amount you pay in finance charges over time. The more you can pay above the minimum, the better.



Transfer credit card balances with high annual percentage rates. If you have a credit card for which you are paying a high annual percentage rate (APR), it might be a good idea to look into transferring this balance to a credit card that offers a lower APR or no APR for a certain amount of time. This way, your entire payment will be applied to your balance, not interest.

Read the fine print before transferring a balance. Most cards charge a transfer fee (3% of the balance, for example) and only offer 0% APR for a limited amount of time (12 or 18 months, for example). Make sure you understand the terms of your new agreement and shop around for the best option before transferring your balance.



Calculate the amount of debt on each credit card. If you have multiple credit cards, compare the amount of debt you have on each one. You can use this information in two different ways:

Some people believe paying off the credit card with the smallest balance first is best. The idea here is that getting the smaller amount of debt paid off will motivate you and allow you to focus on your remaining debt.

Alternatively, some people believe you should focus on paying off the largest balance because you will be paying the most in interest on this balance. To do this, you would try to make more than the minimum payment on this balance, while paying only the minimum on your smaller balance.

If possible, the best solution is to pay more than the minimum simultaneously on each balance.



Dedicate excess funds toward paying off debt. Once you are able to follow your monthly budget, dedicate any extra funds you have at the end of the month toward paying down your debt. It can be tempting to use this money to treat yourself to a fancy dinner or a new TV, but remember your long-term goals before doing this. In the long run, paying down debt will serve you better than treating yourself to something unnecessary.



Consolidate your debt. If you have multiple credit card accounts, student loans, a mortgage, a car loan, or any combination of these debts, consolidating them into one payment may help you manage them more easily. Typically, when you consolidate debt, you’ll get a debt consolidation loan. These loans usually have a lower interest rate and require lower monthly payments.

While consolidating your debt can make it easier to manage, it may also increase the amount you’ll pay in the long run because it extends your payments over a longer period of time.

If your credit score is not good, you may need a co-signer to be able to get a debt consolidation loan.

You can also consolidate your credit card debt by transferring all of your balances to a 0% APR credit card. If you think you can pay off your debt within 12 to 18 months, this might be a good option. However, if you think it will take you significantly longer to pay it off, this might not be a good option because the 0% APR is usually only good for 12 to 18 months.



Refinance your loans. Refinancing is generally a good option if your financial situation has improved since taking out your loan. Similar to consolidating your debt, refinancing your loans also consolidates your debts and may allow you to make lower monthly payments on your loans. Refinancing might also allow you to shorten the term of your loan to pay off your debts more quickly. In addition, depending on your financial situation, you may also be eligible for a lower interest rate.





Choose a student loan repayment plan. If you can afford it, the standard repayment plan is your best option for repaying federal loans. A standard plan requires you to pay the same amount every month over a ten year period. If you can’t afford the payments on a standard plan, however, the government offers two alternative categories of plans—income-driven and basic.

Income-driven repayment plans extend the terms of your loan to 20 or 25 years and require you to pay a certain percentage of your income toward your loan each month, rather than a fixed monthly payment. In addition, any amount still owed at the end of your loan term is forgiven.

Basic plans include standard, graduated, and extended repayment options. Standard is the best option if you can afford it, but graduated or extended plans may be right in some situations. Graduated plans start you off with low payments and gradually increase them over time. This plan can be good if you expect to make more money over the years. Extended plans extend the terms of your loan to 25 years, allowing you to make smaller payments each month, but pay more in interest over time.











Saving for Emergencies and Retirement.



Set up automatic deposits. It can be tough to commit to putting money into your savings account every month, but it is important to do so to ensure you have enough money for emergencies and for your future. If possible, make automatic payments into a saving account each month.

For example, set your bank account so it automatically transfers $50 from your checking account to savings account at least once a month.

Or, if your paycheck gets deposited directly into your account, you can usually set it up so that a certain portion (either a dollar amount or a percentage) is deposited straight into your savings account. Most professionals recommend putting 10 to 20 percent of your income towards savings each month.



Contribute to a retirement savings plan. You should start saving for retirement as soon as possible to ensure you’ll have enough money to live comfortably when you are done working. The amount you need to contribute to this savings account monthly depends on a number of different factors, like when you start saving, how much you are starting with, and whether or not you’re going to receive any kind of employer contribution.

Many employers offer a 401k, or a retirement savings plan, of some kind to their employees. A lot of companies will also match a percentage of the employee’s contributions into this account over time. If your employer offers a plan of this sort, start contributing to it as soon as you can, even if it is just a small amount.

If you are self-employed or your employer does not offer any kind of retirement savings plan, you can set up your own plan through investment websites or many banks.

Consult a financial advisor to figure out how much you should be putting away for retirement to reach your goals.[19]



Build an emergency fund. In addition to saving for retirement, you also need to save for emergencies, like losing a job, costly car repairs, or unexpected medical expenses. You can use your bank’s savings account for this emergency fund.

Financial professionals recommend you have enough in your savings account to cover a month and a half of living expenses for each person you claim as a dependent. For example, if you are married with one child, you should have enough to cover four and a half months of living expenses.











Investing for Beginners.



Invest in a Target Date Fund (TDF). Figuring out where to invest your money is one of the hardest parts of personal finance basics. Essentially, you want to invest in a variety of stocks, bonds, and treasuries—but which ones? Target Date Funds make this a little easier for you. A TDF is basically a hands-off retirement account. You enter the age you want to retire and the TDF will automatically spread the money you put into this account across a wide variety of stocks, bonds, and treasuries.

Some of the recommended companies through which to do this are Vanguard, Fidelity, and T. Rowe Price.



Diversify your investments. If you choose a more hands-on approach to investing, it is important to diversify your portfolio to reduce risk. Diversifying means that you choose a variety of stocks, bonds, and treasuries in which to invest. You should make sure your investments are spread over a number of different companies and industries. This way, if one company or industry suffers a financial downturn, you will only lose a portion of your investment, not the whole thing.



Invest in your 401k. As mentioned above, investing in a 401k provided by your company is a good idea. There are a couple really good things about this option. First of all, most of the time, the money you put into a 401k is deferred on your taxes until you take it out of the account. Some 401ks are taxed before investing, however, so check with your employer to find out which one you have. Second, your employer will often match the amount of money in your 401k (up to a certain amount) so you are, essentially, getting free money just for investing.

You should invest in a company match 401k even if you are in debt. The return you receive on this type of investing is often more than what your debt is.

The amount of money your company will match often depends how much you invest in your 401k. Usually, you have to hit certain investment thresholds, which will then determine the percentage your company will match.



Invest in a Roth IRA. Another investment opportunity offered by many employers is a Roth IRA. In a Roth IRA, you pay taxes up front on your investment. Investing in a Roth IRA is an especially good idea for young people with low incomes, considering the tax rate will likely increase in their lifetime. This type of investment can be very helpful because it will provide you with a pot of money for your retirement that won’t shrink due to taxes.]















Understanding Why to Insure Your Investments.



Get property insurance. You should invest in property insurance to protect your home, which is often one of your biggest assets. Property insurance is actually required if you have a mortgage. This type of insurance will protect you from having to pay out-of-pocket for any major unforeseen home repairs.

If you rent, it is just as important to invest in renter’s insurance. Your belongings can add up to a significant investment and getting renter’s insurance will help protect you in the event of a burglary, fire, flood, or other disaster.



Buy life insurance. Getting life insurance is especially important if you have a family or are married. Life insurance makes sure your income (or at least part of it) is supplemented in the event that you pass away. This is important because your family could face very tough financial situations if they are unable to make up for the portion of income you brought to the table.



Get health insurance. Health insurance premiums can be a small price to pay if you find yourself sick or seriously injured. Medical bills alone can put you in serious debt if you don’t have some sort of insurance policy. In addition, you’ll likely miss a significant amount of work if you are seriously injured, leaving you no way to pay these bills.

Many employers offer health insurance to their employees at a discounted rate. Usually only full-time employees are eligible to receive health insurance through the company, but some companies may offer it to part-time employees as well.

Buying health insurance independently, without the help of an employer, can be expensive. However, it is worth investing in to make sure you are not crippled by debt in the event you become sick or injured.[28]



Buy automobile insurance. Finally, you should invest in automobile insurance. In fact, it is required of anyone who owns a car in the United States. Auto insurance helps cover the cost to repair your car after an accident and medical bills for you and others involved. A major car accident can put you in debt from car repairs and time off work if you’re injured. It is also possible your assets can be seized to help pay for the other driver’s medical bills if the accident is your fault. Having automobile insurance can help diffuse some of these costs and help keep you out of debt.















Working with a Financial Planner.



Start now. One of the most important things you can do for your personal finances is to start thinking about them and working on them early. It may seem like you have plenty of time to save for retirement, but you can actually lose a lot of money in interest if you wait too long. Make financial planning a regular part of your life—like going to the doctor—and get started as soon as possible.

Get your significant other involved. If you are planning a future together, make sure to include your significant other in your planning. Talking to your partner and including them in the process will ensure you are both on the same page with your spending and saving habits and allow you to develop a plan that meets both of your needs.



Be proactive. Some people assume that everything will work out in the long-run and ignore negative cues about their finances. If you do this, however, you could set yourself up for a major loss. Instead, think about how negative financial situations, like severe drops in the stock market, might affect your financial security and plan alternative options.



Plan out the details. Many people see saving for retirement as a race to reach a certain amount of savings before the date they retire. This approach can be misleading, however. Instead, think about the things you’ll need to pay for, like housing, healthcare, eldercare, hobbies, transportation, and so on. Do your best to figure out how much these products and services will cost you and how you’ll finance them.





Tips.

Figuring out how to handle your personal finances can be very confusing whether you’re a beginner or not. It is a good idea to consult a financial planner to help you decide how to best handle your money.

November 10, 2019

How to Do Technical Analysis.

How to Do Technical Analysis.

Technical analysis evolved from the stock market theories of Charles Henry Dow, founder of the Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow Jones and Company. The goal of technical analysis is to predict the future price of stocks, commodities, futures and other tradeable securities based on past prices and performance of those securities. Technical analysts apply the law of supply and demand to understand how the stock market and other securities exchanges work, identifying trends and profiting from them. The following steps will help you understand technical analysis and how it is applied to choosing stocks and other commodities.

Steps.
1. Understand Dow's theories behind technical analysis. Three of Dow's theories about investments form the underpinnings of technical analysis and serve to guide the technical analyst's approach to financial markets. Those theories are described below with an explanation of how technical analysts interpret them.
Market fluctuations reflect all known information. Technical analysts believe that changes in the price of a security and how well it trades in the market reflect all the available information about that security as garnered from all pertinent sources. Price listings are therefore thought of as fair value. Sudden changes in how a stock trades often precedes major news about the company that issued the stock. Technical analysts don't concern themselves with the price-to-earnings ratio, shareholder equity, return on equity or other factors that fundamental analysts consider.
Price movements can often be charted and predicted. Technical analysts acknowledge that there are periods when prices move randomly, but there are also times when they move in an identifiable trend. Once a trend is identified, it is possible to make money from it, either by buying low and selling high during an upward trend (bull market) or by selling short during a downward trend (bear market). By adjusting the length of time the market is being analyzed, it is possible to spot both short- and long-term trends.
History repeats itself. People don't change their motivations overnight; traders can be expected to react the same way to current conditions as they did in the past when those same conditions occurred. Because people react predictably, technical analysts can use their knowledge of how other traders reacted in the past to profit each time conditions repeat themselves. In this respect, technical analysis differs from "efficient market theory," which ignores the effect that human actions and reactions have on the market.
2. Look for quick results. Unlike fundamental analysis, which looks at balance sheets and other financial data over relatively long periods of time, technical analysis focuses on periods no longer than a month and sometimes as short as a few minutes. It is suited to people who seek to make money from securities by repeatedly buying and selling them rather than those who invest for the long term.
3. Read charts to spot price trends. Technical analysts look at charts and graphs of security prices to spot the general direction in which prices are headed, overlooking individual fluctuations. Trends are classified by type and duration.
Up trends, characterized by highs and lows that become progressively higher.
Down trends are seen when successive highs and lows are progressively lower.
Horizontal trends in which successive highs and lows fail to change much from previous highs and lows.
Trend lines are drawn to connect successive highs to each other and successive lows to each other. This makes spotting trends easy. Such trend lines are often called channel lines.
Trends are classified as major trends when they last longer than a year, as intermediate trends when they last at least a month but less than a year, and as near-term trends when they last less than a month. Intermediate trends are made up of near-term trends, and major trends are made up of near-term and intermediate trends, which may not go in the same direction as the larger trend they are part of. (An example of this would be a month-long downward price correction in a year-long bull market. The bull market is a major trend, while the price correction is an intermediate trend within it.)
Technical analysts use four kinds of charts. They use line charts to plot closing stock prices over a period of time, bar and candlestick charts to show the high and low prices for the trading period (and gaps between trading periods if there are any), and point and figure charts to show significant price movements over a period of time.
Technical analysts have coined certain phrases for patterns that appear on the charts they analyze. A pattern resembling a head and shoulders indicates that a trend is about to reverse itself. A pattern resembling a cup and handle indicates that an upward trend will continue after pausing for a short downward correction. A rounding bottom, or saucer bottom pattern indicates a long-term bottoming out of a downward trend before an upswing. A double top or double bottom pattern indicates two failed attempts to exceed a high or low price, which will be followed by a reversal of the trend. (Similarly, a triple top or bottom shows three failed attempts that precede a trend reversal.) Other patterns include triangles, wedges, pennants and flags.
4. Understand the concepts of support and resistance. Support refers to the lowest price a security reaches before more buyers come in and drive the price up. Resistance refers to the highest price a security reaches before owners sell their shares and cause the price to fall again. These levels are not fixed, but fluctuate. On a chart depicting channel lines, the bottom line is the support line (floor price for the security), while the top line is the resistance line (ceiling price). Support and resistance levels are used to confirm the existence of a trend and to identify when the trend reverses itself.
Because people tend to think in round numbers (10, 20, 25, 50, 100, 500, 1,000, and so on), support and resistance prices are often given in round numbers.
It is possible for stock prices to rise above resistance levels or fall below support levels. In such cases, the resistance level may become a support level for a new, higher resistance level; or the support level may become a resistance level for a new, lower support level. For this to happen, the price has to make a strong, sustained change. Such reversals may be common in the short term.
Generally, when securities are trading near a support level, technical analysts tend to avoid buying because of concern for price volatility. They may, however, buy within a few points of that level. Those who sell short use the support price as their trading point.
5. Pay attention to the volume of trades. How much buying and selling goes on indicates the validity of a trend or whether it's reversing itself. If the trading volume increases substantially even as the price rises substantially, the trend is probably valid. If the trading volume increases only slightly (or even falls) as the price goes up, the trend is probably due to reverse itself.
6. Use moving averages to filter out minor price fluctuations. A moving average is a series of calculated averages measured over successive, equal periods of time. Moving averages remove unrepresentative highs and lows, making it easier to see overall trends. Plotting prices against moving averages, or short-term averages against long-term averages, makes it easier to spot trend reversals. There are several averaging methods used.
The simple moving average (SMA) is found by adding together all the closing prices during the time period and dividing that sum by the number of prices included.
The linear weighted average takes each price and multiplies it by its position on the chart before adding the prices together and dividing by the number of prices. Thus, over a five-day period, the first price would be multiplied by 1, the second by 2, the third by 3, the fourth by 4 and the fifth by 5.
An exponential moving average (EMA) is similar to the linear moving average, except that it weighs only the most recent prices used in computing the average, making it more responsive to the latest information than a simple moving average.
7. Use indicators and oscillators to support what the price movements are telling you. Indicators are calculations that support the trend information gleaned from price movements and add another factor into your decision to buy or sell securities. (The moving averages described above are an example of an indicator.) Some indicators can have any value, while others are restricted to a particular range of values, such as 0 to 100. The latter indicators are termed oscillators.
Indicators may be either leading or lagging. Leading indicators predict price movements and are most useful during horizontal trends to signal uptrends or downtrends. Lagging indicators confirm price movements and are most useful during uptrends and downtrends.
Trend indicators include the average directional index (ADX) and the Aroon indicator. The ADX uses positive and negative directional indicators to determine how strong an uptrend or downtrend is on a scale of 0 to 100. Values below 20 indicate a weak trend and over 40 a strong one. The Aroon indicator plots the lengths of time since the highest and lowest trading prices were reached, using that data to determine the nature and strength of the trend or the onset of a new trend.
The best known volume indicator is the moving average convergence-divergence (MACD) indicator. It is the difference between two exponential moving averages, one short-term and the other long-term, as plotted against a center line that represents where the two averages equal each other. A positive MACD value shows that the short-term average is above the long-term average and the market should move upward. A negative MACD value shows that the short-term average is below the long-term average and that the market is moving downward. When the MACD is plotted on a chart, and its line crosses the centerline, it shows when the moving averages that make it up cross over. Another volume-related indicator, the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, is the total trading volume for a given period, a positive number when the price is up and a negative number when the price is down. Unlike the MACD, the actual value of the number has less meaning than whether the number is positive or negative.
How frequently securities are being traded is tracked by both the relative strength index (RSI) and the stochastic oscillator. The RSI ranges from 0 to 100; a value over 70 suggests that the security being evaluated is being bought too frequently, while a value under 30 suggests it is being sold too frequently. RSI is normally used for 14-day periods but may be used for shorter periods, making it more volatile. The stochastic oscillator also runs from 0 to 100. It signals too frequent buying at values over 80 and too frequent selling at values under 20.

Community Q&A

Question : What is meant by selling short during a downward trend?
Answer : It means borrowing shares of stock from a broker in order to sell them at one price, then waiting for their price to drop (in the "downward trend") so you can buy them back at the lower price, thus making a profit (at which point you give the shares back to the broker). This is purely a gamble (but a popular one among some professional investors).
Question : What is meant by "buy at pullback and sell at strength"?
Answer : That's another way of saying "buy low, sell high." A "pullback" is a reversal in a rising trend, offering a brief opportunity to buy at a relatively low price. "Strength" is a high price relative to recent levels.
Question : What is meant by saying, "Buy low, sell high"?
Answer : It means you should sell shares only when they are valued at a price higher than the price at which you purchased them. In practice, it means you should buy shares only after they have recently fallen in price, and you should sell shares only after they have recently risen in price -- again assuming the selling price is higher than the original purchase price. That's not always easy to do, but that's the theoretical objective in owning stock.
Question : How can I watch how technical analysis works?
Answer : You would have to find and contact a value investor, and ask if they would let you observe them at work. A stockbroker might be able to help you find such an investor.

Tips.

While most brokerage houses are geared toward long-term investing and employ mostly fundamental analysts, many now employ a few technical analysts as well.

Warnings.
Although some technical analysts use a single indicator or oscillator to tell them whether to buy or sell, indicators are best used in conjunction with one another and with price movements and chart patterns.
Know the limitations of technical analysis: it doesn't always work. For example, the most perfect head and shoulder top pattern possible may be formed (thought to be an extremely bearish technical indicator), and you sell the stock, only to see a huge extended rally from there, leaving you behind. Do not rely exclusively on technical analysis. Use it as a guide, and combine it with fundamental analysis.

June 25, 2020

How Warren Buffett Makes Decisions – The Secret to His Investing Success.

How Warren Buffett Makes Decisions – The Secret to His Investing Success.

By Michael Lewis.

Warren Buffett is considered by many to be the most successful stock investor ever. Despite the occasional mistake, Buffett’s investing strategies are unrivaled. In 1956, at age 26, his net worth was estimated at $140,000. MarketWatch estimated his net worth at the end of 2016 to be $73.1 billion, an astounding compound annual growth rate of 24.5%. By contrast, the S&P 500 has grown at an average rate of 6.79% and most mutual funds have failed to equal the annual S&P 500 return consistently.

Buffett has achieved these returns while most of his competition failed. According to John Bogle, one of the founders and former Chairman of The Vanguard Group, “The evidence is compelling that equity fund returns lag the stock market by a substantial amount, largely accounted for by cost, and that fund investor returns lag fund returns by a substantial amount, largely accounted for by counterproductive market timing and fund selection.”

Since the evidence shows that Buffet has been an exceptional investor, market observers and psychologists have searched for an explanation to his success. Why has Warren Buffett achieved extraordinary gains compared to his peers? What is his secret?

A Long-Term Perspective. Why Some People Are More Successful Than Others.
Philosophers and scientists have long sought to determine why some people are more successful than others at building wealth. Their findings are varied and often contradictory.

For centuries, people believed their fate, including wealth and status, depended upon the capricious favor of pagan gods – more specifically, the favor of Tyche (Greek) or Fortuna (Roman). Expansion of the Judeo-Christian-Islamic religions and their concepts of “free will” led to the general belief that individuals could control their destiny through their actions, or lack thereof.

Modern science, specifically psychology and neuroscience, advanced a theory of biological determinants that control human decisions and actions. This theory suggests that free will might not be as “free” as previously thought. In other words, we may be predisposed to certain behaviors that affect the ways we process information and make decisions.

Evolutionary biologists and psychologists have developed a variety of different theories to explain human decision-making. Some claim that the ability to make superior decisions with favorable outcomes is the result of eons of natural selection, which favors individuals with exceptional genetics, such as those with high IQs.

Despite the perception that a high IQ is necessary for building wealth, study after study indicates that the link between super-intelligence and financial success is dubious at best:

Dr. Jay Zagorsky’s study in the Intelligence Journal found no strong relationship between total wealth and intelligence: “People don’t become rich just because they are smart.”
Mensa members rank in the top 2% of the brightest people on earth, but most are not rich and are “certainly not the top 1% financially,” according to an organization spokesperson. A study by Eleanor Laise of the Mensa Investment Club noted that the fund averaged 2.5% per annum for a 15-year period, while the S&P 500 averaged 15.3% during the same time. One member admitted that “we can screw up faster than anyone,” while another described their investment strategy as “buy low, sell lower.”
Buffett has never claimed to be a genius. When asked what he would teach the next generation of investors at the 2009 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, he replied, “In the investing business, if you have an IQ of 150, sell 30 points to someone else. You do not need to be a genius . . . It’s not a complicated game; you don’t need to understand math. It’s simple, but not easy.”

He later expanded the thought: “If calculus or algebra were required to be a great investor, I’d have to go back to delivering newspapers.”

Economists’ Rational Man.
Economists have historically based their models upon the presumption that humans make logical decisions. In other words, a person faced with a choice balances certainties against risks. The theory of expected value presumes that people facing choices will choose the one that has the largest combination of expected success (probability) and value (impact).

A rational person would always model the industrious ant in Aesop’s fable, not the insouciant grasshopper. The idea that people would make decisions contrary to their interests is inconceivable to economists.

To be fair, most economists recognize the flaws in their models. Swedish economist Lars Syll notes that “a theoretical model is nothing more than an argument that a set of conclusions follows from a fixed set of assumptions.”

Economists presume stable systems and simple assumptions, while the real world is in constant flux. Paraphrasing H.L Mencken’s famous quote, there is always a simple economic model [well-known solution] for every human problem. This notion is neat, plausible, and wrong.

Psychologists’ Natural Man.
According to Harvard professor Daniel Lieberman, humans are naturally inclined to seek the solutions that require the least expenditure of energy.

In the real world, we have difficulty deferring immediate gratification for future security, selecting investments best suited to our long-term goals and risk profile, and acting in our best financial interests. Psychological research suggests that the difficulty is rooted in our brains – how we think and make decisions.

Researchers Susan Fiske and Shelley Taylor postulate that humans are “cognitive misers,” preferring to do as little thinking as possible. The brain uses more energy than any other human organ, accounting for up to 20% of the body’s total intake.

When decisions involve issues more remote from our current state in distance or time, there is a tendency to defer making a choice. This impulse accounts for the failure of people to save in the present since the payoff is years in the future.

As far as we know, Mr. Buffett’ brain is similar to other investors and he experiences the same impulses and anxieties as others. While he experiences the tensions that arise in everyone when making decisions, he has learned to control impulses and make reasoned, rational decisions.

Our Two-Brain System.
The studies by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky provide new insight into decision-making, perhaps the key to Buffett’s success. They theorize that each human uses two systems of mental processing (System 1 and System 2) that work together seamlessly most of the time. Khaneman’s book, “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” outlines these two systems.

System 1 – Think Fast.
System 1, also referred to as the “emotional brain,” developed as the limbic system in the brain of early humans. Sometimes called the “mammalian brain,” it includes the amygdala, the organ where emotions and memories arise.

Neuroscientist Paul MacLean hypothesized that the limbic system was one of the first steps in the evolution of the human brain, developed as part of its fight or flight circuitry. Through necessity, our primitive ancestors had to react quickly to danger when seconds could mean escape or death.

The emotional brain is always active, capable of making quick decisions with scant information and conscious effort. It continuously makes and remakes models – heuristic frames – of the world around it, relying on the senses and memories of past events.

For example, an experienced driver coordinates steering and speed of an automobile on an empty highway almost effortlessly, even casually. The driver can simultaneously carry on conversations with passengers or listen to the radio without losing control of the vehicle. The driver is relying on the decisions of System 1.

The emotional brain is also the source of intuition, that “inner voice” or gut feeling we sometimes get without being consciously aware of the underlying reasons for its occurrence. We rely primarily on this system for the hundreds of everyday decisions we make – what to wear, where to sit, identifying a friend. Paradoxically, System 1 is a source of creativity as well as habits.

System 2 – Think Slow.
System 2, also called the “logical brain,” is slower, more deliberate, and analytical, rationally balancing the benefits and costs of each choice using all the available information.

System 2 decisions take place in the latest evolutionary addition to the brain – the neocortex. It is believed to be the center of humans’ extraordinary cognitive activity. System 2 was slower to evolve in humans and requires more energy to exercise, indicating the old saw “Thinking is hard” is a fact.

Kahneman characterizes System 2 as “the conscious, reasoning self that has beliefs, makes choices, and decides what to think about and do.” It is in charge of decisions about the future, while System 1 is more active in the moment. While our emotional brain can generate complex patterns of ideas, it is also freewheeling, impulsive, and often inappropriate.

Fortunately, System 1 works well most of the time; its models of everyday situations are accurate, its short-term predictions are usually correct, and its initial reactions to challenges are swift and mostly appropriate.

System 2 is more controlled, rule-based, and analytical, continuously monitoring the quality of the answers provided by System 1. Our logical brain becomes active when it needs to override an automatic judgment of System 1.

For example, the earlier driver proceeding casually down the road is more focused when passing a semi-truck on a narrow two-lane road or in heavy traffic, actively processing the changing conditions and responding with deliberate actions. His or her mental effort is accompanied by detectable physical changes, such as tensed muscles, increased heart rate, and dilated pupils. In these circumstances, System 2 is in charge.

The logical brain normally functions in low-effort mode, always in reserve until System 1 encounters a problem it cannot solve or is required to act in a way that doesn’t come naturally. Solving for the product of 37 x 82 requires the deliberate processes of System 2, while the answer to a simple addition problem, such as the sum of 2 + 2, is a System 1 function. The answer is not calculated, but summoned from memory.

Neuropsychologists Abigail Baird and Jonathan Fugelsang’s 2004 study indicates that System 2 does not fully develop until adulthood. Their findings suggest the reason that adolescents are more likely to engage in risky behavior is because they lack the mental hardware to weigh decisions rationally. For most people, the two systems work together seamlessly, transitioning from one to the other as needed.

The Buffett Style.
The Oracle of Omaha’s key to investing is understanding and coordinating the two systems of decision-making. Buffett relies upon System 1 to intuitively seek out investments he finds attractive and understands.

When deciding on a possible investment, he recommends, “If you need a computer or a calculator to decide whether to invest, then don’t do it – invest in something that shouts at you – if it is not obvious, walk away . . . If you don’t know the business, the financials won’t help at all.”

Avoid the Traps of Thinking Fast.
Master investors like Buffett simplify their decisions by relying upon System 1, and it serves them well in most cases. However, they recognize that their emotional decision-making system is also prone to biases and errors, including:

Mental Framing.
Our brains, equipped with millions of sensory inputs, create interpretive mental “frames” or filters to make sense of data. These mental filters help us understand and respond to the events around us. Framing is a heuristic – a mental shortcut – that provides a quick, easy way to process information. Unfortunately, framing can also provide a limited, simplistic view of reality that can lead to flawed decisions.

The choices we make depend on our perspective, or the frames surrounding the problem. For example, research shows that people are likely to proceed with a decision if the outcome is presented with a 50% chance of success and decline if the consequence is expressed with a 50% chance of failure, even though the probability is the same in either case.

Most investors incorrectly frame stock investments by thinking of the stock market as a stream of electronic bits of data independent of the underlying businesses the data represents. The constant flow of information about prices, economies, and expert opinions triggers our emotional brains and stimulates quick decisions to reap profits (pleasure) or prevent loss (pain).

Buffett recommends investors not think of an investment in stock as “a piece of paper whose price wiggles around daily” and is a candidate for sale whenever you get nervous.

Short-term thinking – System 1 – often leads to trading stocks, not investing in companies. Day traders – those who buy and sell stocks within a single market session – are unusually unsuccessful, according to day trading studies by the University of California-Berkeley:

80% of all day traders quit within the first two years.
Active traders underperform the stock market average by 6.5% annually.
Only 1.6% of day traders make a net profit each year.
Financial data is especially susceptible to framing. Companies always express earnings and losses positively, either as an increase compared to past results or a smaller loss than previous periods. Trends can be manipulated based upon the comparison point and time interval.

Even the words we use to describe a choice establish a frame for assessing value. Characterizations like “high growth,” “turnaround,” or “cyclical” trigger the subconscious stereotypes we have for such terms without regard to the underlying financial data.

Framing can lead rational people to make irrational decisions based upon their projections of the outcome. This accounts for the difference between economics’ rational man and psychology’s natural man.

Buffett has learned to frame his investment opportunities appropriately to avoid short-term, arbitrary outcomes:

“We [Berkshire Hathaway] select such investments on a long-term basis, weighing the same factors as would be involved in the purchase of 100% of an operating business.”
“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”
“If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it 10 minutes.”
Loss Aversion.
Kahneman and Tversky determined that in human decision-making, losses loom larger than gains. Their experiments suggest that the pain of loss is twice as a great as the pleasure from gain. This feeling arises in the amygdala, which is responsible for generating fearful emotions and memories of painful associations.

The fact that investors are more likely to sell stocks with profit than those with a loss, when the converse strategy would be more logical, is evidence of the power of loss aversion.

While Buffett sells his positions infrequently, he cuts his losses when he realizes he has made a judgment error. In 2016, Buffett substantially reduced or liquidated his position in three companies, because he believed they had lost their competitive edge:

Wal-Mart: Despite his regrets that he had not purchased more shares earlier, he has been a long-time investor in the company. The rationale for the recent sales is thought to be due to the transition of the retail market from bricks-and-mortar stores to online. A Pew Research Center study found almost 80% of Americans today are online shoppers versus 22% in 2000.
Deere & Co: Buffett’s initial purchases of the agricultural equipment manufacturer began in the third quarter of 2012. By 2016, he owned almost 22-million shares with an average cost of less than $80 per share. He liquidated his shares during the last two quarters of 2016 when prices were more than $100 per share. Buffett may have felt that farm income, having fallen by half since 2013 due to worldwide bumper crops, was unlikely to improve, leaving the premier provider of agricultural equipment unable to continue to expand its profits.
Verizon: Having owned the stock since 2014, he liquidated his entire position in 2016, due to a loss of confidence in management after the company’s questionable acquisition of Yahoo and the continued turmoil in the wireless carrier market.
Our distaste for losses can create anxiety and trick us into acting prematurely because we fear being left out in a rising market or staying too long in a bear market. Buffett and Munger practice “assiduity – the ability to sit on your ass and do nothing until a great opportunity presents itself.”

Representativeness.
People tend to ignore statistics and focus on stereotypes. An example in the Association of Psychological Science Journal illustrates this common bias. When asked to select the proper occupation of a shy, withdrawn man who takes little interest in the real world from a list including farmer, salesman, pilot, doctor, and librarian, most people incorrectly chose librarian. Their decision ignores the obvious: there are many more farmers in the world than librarians.

Buffett focuses on finding the “inevitables” – great companies with insurmountable advantages – rather than following conventional wisdom and accepted patterns of thinking favored by System 1’s decision-making process. In his 1996 letter to investors, he defines Coca-Cola and Gillette as two companies that “will dominate their fields worldwide for an investment lifetime.”

He is especially wary of “imposters” – those companies that seem invincible but lack real competitive advantage. For every inevitable, there are dozens of imposters. According to Buffett, General Motors, IBM, and Sears lost their seemingly insurmountable advantages when values declined in “the presence of hubris or of boredom that caused the attention of the managers to wander.”

Buffett recognizes that companies in high-tech or embryonic industries capture our imaginations – and excite our emotional brains – with their promise of extraordinary gains. However, he prefers investments where he is “certain of a good result [rather] than hopeful of a great one” – an example of the logical brain at work.

Anchoring.
Evolution is the reason humans rely too heavily on the first or a single bit of information they receive – their “first impression.” In a world of deadly perils, delaying action can lead to pain or death. Therefore, first impressions linger in our minds and affect subsequent decisions. We subconsciously believe that what happened in the past will happen in the future, leading us to exaggerate the importance of the initial purchase price in subsequent decisions to sell a security.

Investors unknowingly make decisions based on anchoring data, such as previous stock prices, past years’ earnings, consensus analyst projections or expert opinions, and prevailing attitudes about the direction of stock prices, whether in a bear or bull market. While some characterize this effect as following a trend, it is a System 1 shortcut based on partial information, rather than the result of System 2 analysis.

Buffett often goes against the trend of popular opinion, recognizing that “most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.” When making a decision based on historical data, he notes, “If past history was all that is needed to play the game of money, the richest people would be librarians.”

Buffett’s approach is neither to follow the herd nor purposely do the opposite of the consensus. Whether people concur with his analysis isn’t important. His goal is simple: acquire, at a reasonable price, a business with excellent economics and able, honest management.

Despite considering IBM an “imposter” in 1996, Berkshire Hathaway began acquiring the stock in 2011, consistently adding to Buffett’s position over the years. By the end of the first quarter in 2017, Berkshire owned more than 8% of the outstanding shares with a value greater than $14 billion.

While his analysis remains confidential, Buffett believes that the investors have discounted the future of IBM too severely and failed to note its transition to a cloud-based business might lead to brighter growth prospects and a high degree of customer retention. Also, the company pays a dividend almost twice the level of the S&P 500 and actively repurchases shares on the open market.

The growing IBM position – quadrupling since the initial purchase – is evidence that Buffett isn’t afraid to take action when he is comfortable with his analysis: “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.”

Availability.
Humans tend to estimate the likelihood of an event occurring based on the ease with which it comes to mind. For example, a 2008 study of State lottery sales showed that stores that sell a publicized, winning lottery ticket experience a 12% to 38% increase in sales for up to 40 weeks following the announcement of the winner.

People visit stores selling a winning ticket more often due to the easy recall of the win, and a bias that the location is “lucky” and more likely to produce another winning ticket than a more convenient store down the street.

This bias frequently affects decisions about stock investments. In other words, investor perceptions lag reality. Momentum, whether upward or downward, continues well past the emergence of new facts. Investors with losses are slow to reinvest, often sitting on the sidelines until prices have recovered most of their decline (irrational pessimism).

Conversely, reinforcement from a bull market encourages continued purchasing even after the economic cycle turns down (irrational optimism). Therefore, investors tend to buy when prices are high and sell when they are low.

The S&P 500 fell 57% between late 2007 and March 2009, devastating investor portfolios and liquidating stocks and mutual funds. Even though the index had recovered its losses by mid-2012, individual investors had not returned to equity investments, either staying in cash or purchasing less risky bonds.

At the time, Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., noted, “Even three-and-a-half years into this bull market and the gains we’ve seen since June [2012], it has not turned this psychology [of fear] around.” In other words, many individuals took the loss but did not participate in the subsequent recovery.

Buffett has always tried to follow the advice of his mentor, Benjamin Graham, who said, “Buy not on optimism [or sell due to pessimism], but on arithmetic.” Graham advocated objective analysis, not emotions, when buying or selling stocks: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine [emotional], but in the long run it is a weighing machine [logical].”

Affect.
We tend to assess probabilities based on our feelings about the options. In other words, we judge an option less risky solely because we favor it and vice versa. This bias can lead people to buy stock in their employer when other investments would be more appropriate for their goals. Overconfidence in one’s ability magnifies the negative impact of affect.

For example, Buffett invested $350 million in preferred stock of U.S. Airways in 1989, despite his belief that airlines and airline manufacturers had historically been a death trap for investors. The investment followed a dinner with Ed Colodny, the CEO of the airline, who impressed Buffett. Certain that the preferred stock was safe and the airline had a competitive seat cost (around 12 cents per mile), he made the investment.

Buffett later admitted his analysis “was superficial and wrong,” perhaps due to hubris and his like for Colodny. An upstart Texas airline (Southwest Airlines) subsequently upset the competitive balance in the industry with seat costs of 8 cents per mile, causing Berkshire Hathaway to write down its investment by 75%.

Buffett was lucky to make a significant profit on the investment ($216 million), primarily because the airline subsequently and unexpectedly returned to profitability and was able to pay the accrued dividends and redeem its preferred stock.

Final Word.
Mr. Buffett’s investment style has been criticized by many over the decades. Trend followers and traders are especially critical of his record and philosophy, claiming that his results are the result of “luck, given the relatively few trades that made him so wealthy.”

Hedge fund manager Michael Steinhardt, who Forbes called “Wall Street’s Greatest Trader,” said during a CNBC interview that Buffett is “the greatest PR person of all time. And he has managed to achieve a snow job that has conned virtually everyone in the press to my knowledge.”

Before following the advice of those who are quick to condemn Buffett’s investment style, it should be noted that no investment manager has come close to rivaling Buffet’s record over the past 60 years. While Steinhardt’s returns are similar to those of Buffett, his were for a period of 28 years – less than one-half of Buffett’s cycle.

Despite their antipathy, both men would agree that System 2 decision-making is critical to investment success. Steinhardt, in his autobiography “No Bull: My Life In and Out of Markets,” said that his results required “knowing more and perceiving the situation better than others did . . . Reaching a level of understanding that allows one to feel competitively informed well ahead of changes in ‘street’ views, even anticipating minor stock price changes, may justify at times making unpopular investments.”

Buffett appears to agree, insisting on taking the time for introspection and thought. “I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in American business. I read and think. So I do more reading and thinking, and make fewer impulsive decisions than most people in business.”

Do you take the time to gather facts and make carefully analyzed investment decisions? Perhaps you are more comfortable going with the flow. What is your decision-making preference and how has it worked out for you thus far?
Do you know anyone who has owned the same stock for 20 years? Warren Buffett has held three stocks – Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, and American Express – for more than 20 years. He has owned one stock – Moody’s – for 15 years, and three other stocks – Proctor & Gamble, Wal-Mart, and U.S. Bancorp – for over a decade.

To be sure, Mr. Buffett’s 50-year track record is not perfect, as he has pointed out from time to time:

Berkshire Hathaway: Pique at CEO Seabird Stanton motivated his takeover of the failing textile company. Buffett later admitted the purchase was “the dumbest stock I ever bought.”
Energy Future Holding: Buffett lost a billion dollars in bonds of the bankrupt Texas electric utility. He admitted he made a huge mistake not consulting his long-term business partner Charlie Munger before closing the purchase: “I would be unwilling to share the credit for my decision to invest with anyone else. That was just a mistake – a significant mistake.”
Wal-Mart: At the 2003 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffet admitted his attempt to time the market had backfired: “We bought a little, and it moved up a little, and I thought maybe it would come back. That thumb-sucking has cost us in the current area of $10 billion.”
Even with these mistakes, Buffett has focused on making big bets that he intends to hold for decades to come. A longer time horizon has allowed him to take advantage of opportunities few others have the patience for. But how has he been able to make these successful bets in the first place?

source : https://www.moneycrashers.com/warren-buffett-decisions-secret-investing-success.

August 14, 2020