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Charlie Munger on Getting Rich, Wisdom, Focus, Fake Knowledge and More.

“In the chronicles of American financial history,” writes David Clark in The Tao of Charlie Munger: A Compilation of Quotes from Berkshire Hathaway’s Vice Chairman on Life, Business, and the Pursuit of Wealth, “Charlie Munger will be seen as the proverbial enigma wrapped in a paradox—he is both a mystery and a contradiction at the same time.”

On one hand, Munger received an elite education and it shows: He went to Cal Tech to train as a meteorologist for the Second World War and then attended Harvard Law School and eventually opened his own law firm. That part of his success makes sense.
Yet here’s a man who never took a single course in economics, business, marketing, finance, psychology, or accounting, and managed to become one of the greatest, most admired, and most honorable businessmen of our age. He was noted by essentially all observers for the originality of his thoughts, especially about business and human behavior. You don’t learn that in law school, at Harvard or anywhere else.
Bill Gates said of him: “He is truly the broadest thinker I have ever encountered.” His business partner Warren Buffett put it another way: “He comes equipped for rationality… I would say that to try and typecast Charlie in terms of any other human that I can think of, no one would fit. He’s got his own mold.”
How does such an extreme result happen? How is such an original and unduly capable mind formed? In the case of Munger, it’s clearly a combination of unusual genetics and an unusual approach to learning and life.
While we can’t have his genetics, we can try to steal his approach to rationality. There’s almost no limit to the amount one could learn from studying the Munger mind, so let’s at least start with a rundown of some of his best ideas.


Wisdom and Circles of Competence.
“Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.”
“Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom.”
Identify your circle of competence and use your knowledge, when possible, to stay away from things you don’t understand. There are no points for difficulty at work or in life.  Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.
Of course this principle relates to another of Munger’s sayings: “People are trying to be smart—all I am trying to do is not to be idiotic, but it’s harder than most people think.”
And this reminds me of perhaps my favorite Mungerism of all time, the very quote that sits right beside my desk:
“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”

Divergence.
“Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean.”
Here’s a simple axiom to live by: If you do what everyone else does, you’re going to get the same results that everyone else gets. This means that, taking out luck (good or bad), if you act average, you’re going to be average. If you want to move away from average, you must diverge. You must be different. And if you want to outperform others, you must be different and correct. As Munger would say, “How could it be otherwise?”

Know When to Fold ’Em.
“Life, in part, is like a poker game, wherein you have to learn to quit sometimes when holding a much-loved hand—you must learn to handle mistakes and new facts that change the odds.”
Mistakes are an opportunity to grow. How we handle adversity is up to us. This is how we become personally antifragile.

False Models.
Echoing Einstein, who said that “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts,” Munger said this about his and Buffett’s shift to acquiring high-quality businesses for Berkshire Hathaway:
“Once we’d gotten over the hurdle of recognizing that a thing could be a bargain based on quantitative measures that would have horrified Graham, we started thinking about better businesses.”

Being Lazy.
“Sit on your ass. You’re paying less to brokers, you’re listening to less nonsense, and if it works, the tax system gives you an extra one, two, or three percentage points per annum.”
Time is a friend to a good business and the enemy of the poor business. It’s also the friend of knowledge and the enemy of the new and novel. As Seneca said, “Time discovers truth.”

Investing Is a Perimutuel System.
“You’re looking for a mispriced gamble,” says Munger. “That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.”  At another time, he added: “You should remember that good ideas are rare— when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.”
May the odds forever be in your favor. Actually, learning properly is one way you can tilt the odds in your favor.

Focus.
When asked about his success, Munger says, “I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”
Long attention spans allow for a deep understanding of subjects. When combined with deliberate practice, focus allows you to increase your skills and get out of your rut. The Art of Focus is a divergent and correct strategy that can help you identify where the leverage points are and apply your efforts toward them.

Fake Knowledge.
“Smart people aren’t exempt from professional disasters from overconfidence.”
We’re so used to outsourcing our thinking to others that we’ve forgotten what it’s like to really understand something from all perspectives. We’ve forgotten just how much work that takes. The path of least resistance, however, is just a click away. Fake knowledge, which comes from reading headlines and skimming the news, seems harmless, but it’s not. It makes us overconfident. It’s better to remember a simple trick: anything you’re getting easily through Google or Twitter is likely to be widely known and should not be given undue weight.
However, Munger adds, “If people weren’t wrong so often, we wouldn’t be so rich.”

Sit Quietly.
Echoing Pascal, who said some version of “All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone,” Munger adds an investing twist: “It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait.”
The ability to be alone with your thoughts and turn ideas over and over, without giving in to Do Something syndrome, affects so many of us. A perfectly reasonable option is to hold your ground and await more information.

Deal With Reality.
“I think that one should recognize reality even when one doesn’t like it; indeed, especially when one doesn’t like it.”
Munger clearly learned from Joseph Tussman’s wisdom. This means facing harsh truths that you might prefer to ignore. It means meeting the world on the world’s terms, not according to how you wish it would be. If this causes temporary pain, so be it. “Your pain,” writes Kahil Gibran in The Prophet, “is the breaking of the shell that encloses your understanding.”

There Is No Free Lunch.
We like quick solutions that don’t require a lot of effort. We’re drawn to the modern equivalent of an old hustler selling an all-curing tonic. However, the world does not work that way. Munger expands:
“There isn’t a single formula. You need to know a lot about business and human nature and the numbers… It is unreasonable to expect that there is a magic system that will do it for you.”
Acquiring knowledge is hard work. It’s reading and adding to your knowledge so it compounds. It’s going deep and developing fluency, something Darwin knew well.

Maximization/Minimization.
“In business we often find that the winning system goes almost ridiculously far in maximizing and or minimizing one or a few variables—like the discount warehouses of Costco.”
When everything is a priority, nothing is a priority. Attempting to maximize competing variables is a recipe for disaster. Picking one variable and relentlessly focusing on it, which is an effective strategy, diverges from the norm. It’s hard to compete with businesses that have correctly identified the right variables to maximize or minimize. When you focus on one variable, you’ll increase the odds that you’re quick and nimble — and can respond to changes in the terrain.

Map and Terrain.
“At Berkshire there has never been a master plan. Anyone who wanted to do it, we fired because it takes on a life of its own and doesn’t cover new reality. We want people taking into account new information.”
Plans are maps that we become attached to. Once we’ve told everyone there is a plan and what that plan is, especially multi-year plans, we’re psychologically more likely to stick to it because coming out and changing it would be admitting we were wrong. This makes it harder for us to change our strategies when we need to, so we’re stacking the odds against ourselves. Detailed five-year plans (that will clearly be wrong) are as disastrous as overly general five-year plans (which can never be wrong).
Scrap the plan, isolate the key variables that you need to maximize and minimize, and follow the agile path blazed by Henry Singleton and followed by Buffett and Munger.

The Keys to Good Government.
There are three keys: honesty, effectiveness, and efficiency. Munger says:
“In a democracy, everyone takes turns. But if you really want a lot of wisdom, it’s better to concentrate decisions and process in one person. It’s no accident that Singapore has a much better record, given where it started, than the United States. There, power was concentrated in an enormously talented person, Lee Kuan Yew, who was the Warren Buffett of Singapore.”
Lee Kuan Yew put it this way: “With few exceptions, democracy has not brought good government to new developing countries. … What Asians value may not necessarily be what Americans or Europeans value. Westerners value the freedoms and liberties of the individual. As an Asian of Chinese cultural background, my values are for a government which is honest, effective, and efficient.”

One Step At a Time.
“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day—if you live long enough—most people get what they deserve.”
An incremental approach to life reminds one of the nature of compounding. There will always be someone going faster than you, but you can learn from the Darwinian guide to overachieving your natural IQ. In order for this approach to be effective, you need a long axis of time as well as continuous incremental progress.

Getting Rich.
“The desire to get rich fast is pretty dangerous.”
Getting rich is a function of being happy with what you have, spending less than you make, and time.

Mental Models.
“Know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely—all of them, not just a few.”
Mental models are the big ideas from multiple disciplines. While most people agree that these are worth knowing, they often think they can identify which models will add the most value, and in so doing they miss something important. There is a reason that the “know-nothing” index fund almost always beats the investors who think they know. Understanding this idea in greater detail will change a lot of things, including how you read. Acquiring the big ideas — without selectivity — is the way to mimic a know-nothing index fund.

Know-it-alls.
“I try to get rid of people who always confidently answer questions about which they don’t have any real knowledge.”
Few things have made as much of a difference in my life as systemically removing (and when that’s not possible, reducing the importance of) people who think they know the answer to everything.

Stoic Resolve.
“There’s no way that you can live an adequate life without many mistakes. In fact, one trick in life is to get so you can handle mistakes. Failure to handle psychological denial is a common way for people to go broke.”
While we all make mistakes, it’s how we respond to failure that defines us.


Thinking.
“We all are learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. You must force yourself to consider arguments on the other side.”
“It’s bad to have an opinion you’re proud of if you can’t state the arguments for the other side better than your opponents. This is a great mental discipline.”
Thinking is a lot of work. “My first thought,” William Deresiewicz said in one of my favorite speeches, “is never my best thought. My first thought is always someone else’s; it’s always what I’ve already heard about the subject, always the conventional wisdom.”

Choose Your Associates Wisely.
“Oh, it’s just so useful dealing with people you can trust and getting all the others the hell out of your life. It ought to be taught as a catechism. … [W]ise people want to avoid other people who are just total rat poison, and there are a lot of them.”

August 07, 2020

Warren Buffett reveals his investment strategy and mastering the market (PART 4).

ANDY SEWER: You talked a lot about the tax cuts and the benefits to Berkshire. You didn't really get into the costs of the tax cut, which surprised me a little bit. Are there costs? I mean, is it just free money?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, it makes a difference. The tax cut we get, for example, our utilities, as I mentioned in the report, that goes to the customers. That's just the nature of utility regulation. But net, we were a significant beneficiary from the tax cut.

Basically, let's just say we had one class of stock. We got two. You and I own a business together, and we think we own all the stock. But the truth is, before the tax cut, the government had a 35% share of the stock on income.

Now they didn't have a share of the assets, but they had a share of the income. And if it wanted to change it to 40, it could've changed it. But fortunately, it changed it to 21. And if we had a private business, if we had a McDonald's franchise together or an auto dealership together-- the third shareholder-- that invisible shareholder, the government-- just handed us back a bunch of the shares of stock. And our shareholders benefited, and a lot of other shareholder benefited.

ANDY SEWER: You talked about Ajit Jain and Greg Abel saying that Berkshire blood flows through their veins. Have they made a difference since they become vice chairs? And then are they like Warren and Charlie?

WARREN BUFFETT: No, they don't have the interaction. They each run a separate business. Ajit does not think about the other businesses. He thinks about the insurance business. And Greg does not think about the insurance business at all. And I think about the money and the capital and so on.

They're running two very big businesses. I mean, Ajit's business has, all told, a couple of hundred billion of assets. And Greg's business has $150 billion of revenues. They both would fit up there toward the top 10 or so in the country in terms of value, maybe the top 15. But they're very big businesses.

ANDY SEWER: But they're not exactly like you two guys?

WARREN BUFFETT: No, Charlie and I have a partnership thinking about the whole place, and we've done it forever now, and we still do.

ANDY SEWER: And Todd and Ted? I didn't see them mentioned.

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, they have $13 billion each, including pension funds, our pension funds, that they run. So the $173 billion we had at year end in equities-- well, we had 173, but we had another $8 billion in pension funds. So of the 180 or so, they had 26 between them that they're managing.

They got total discretion on that. They don't ask me. At the month end, I look and see what they did. They don't do much. They don't do a lot of trading or anything. But I look to see what changes they made.

Todd, for example, he made a couple of small investments in private-placement-type operations. And I know what the businesses do, but I can't tell you their names.

ANDY SEWER: Was one of those-- you made this investment in Oracle, and you sold it. Was that something they did?

WARREN BUFFETT: No, that was not something they did. That was something I did.

ANDY SEWER: Yeah, and you said, you didn't understand it. That's why you sold. But than why'd you get it in the first place?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, that's a good question to which I do not have a good answer. I know enough about the cloud to know I don't know enough about the cloud.

ANDY SEWER: Right. OK. So Barclays put out a note. They said they were lowering the estimates for Berkshire for EPS. Do you read that stuff?

WARREN BUFFETT: No. Well, I mean, I may read it accidentally, but I don't seek it out to read. I'll put it that way. It just doesn't make any difference. If I spent time reading that, I wouldn't have the time to read 10Ks. And we're not going to do anything different.

I don't know what we're going to earn. As I put in the annual report-- and I really think this is unique-- we do not prepare financial statements monthly for Berkshire. There's just no other company that would do it. But there's no sense doing it.

I know where the money is. I know how the companies are doing, generally, but what difference does it make? Because I'm not going to try and hit any number for the quarter by having a sale on insurance or doing something even worse. And Charlie, he knows where we stand. And we know what businesses are doing well and which aren't. We certainly know where the money is.

ANDY SEWER: Another one-- UBS survey of Berkshire investors says, the five most important things to them are succession, investment performance, M&A opportunities, share repurchase, insurance margins. Do you read that? Does that surprise you?

WARREN BUFFETT: No, but I don't disagree with that. Somebody understands this.

ANDY SEWER: Your own investors.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Well, that's important. To go back to when I started my partnership in 1956 that Berkshire came out of, there were seven people sitting there at a table having dinner, relatives primarily. And I said, here's the partnership agreement.

It's done under Nebraska law. It's four or five pages. You don't need to read it. But I said, here's a little half page, what I call the ground rules. And I want you to read these, and if you feel OK about that-- about the interaction, what the expectations are, and all of that sort of thing-- then we'll join forces.

And if you don't, it's fine. We shouldn't be partners. If I'm going to have a partnership with somebody, I want to be compatible. And when you have a public company, you can't control who comes in. I can't control some guy comes in and thinks we were going to pay big dividends or split the stock or something like that.

So by my actions and my communications and everything, I want to attract the people from the public market that I want, and I want to keep the others away. Costco was built-- Sal Price, who started the Price Club, I think, he sat down and figured out the customer he didn't want. And he set up a system that would keep away the customer he didn't want.

Who did he not want? He didn't want somebody buying a quart of milk with somebody behind him with a basket of $200 worth of goods waiting for that. So he put in a membership fee. And by putting in a membership fee, he killed all the drop-in business, the business that belonged to the 7-Eleven.

We want Berkshire to keep out people who have expectations about us that are different than ours. Good for them, and I hope they find somebody they fit. But if you're going to run a church, you want your seats to be filled by people that generally want to listen to your form of religion.

And you don't want it to change every week and say, gee, I need a new group. And I'll go out and talk to a bunch of investors and get them to come to my church next Sunday. Because there's only so many seats in the church. There's a 1,645,000 or so A-equivalent shares. And those are the seats, and I want them occupied by people that are on the same page I am.

ANDY SEWER: The Church of Berkshire. Seems like you've got a big weighting in financials. And of course, you finally invested in Jamie Dimon's company. Why banks right now?

WARREN BUFFETT: They're businesses I understand, and I like the price at which they're selling relative to their future prospects. I think, 10 years from now, that they'll be worth more money. And I feel there's a very high probability I'm right. And I don't think they will turn out to be the best investments at all of the whole panoply of things you could do. But I'm pretty sure that they won't disappoint me.

ANDY SEWER: Is climate change changing your insurance businesses?

WARREN BUFFETT: No, it doesn't change the insurance business.

ANDY SEWER: Does it change modeling or something in the business?

WARREN BUFFETT: It would change our insurance business if we were writing 20-year policies. If there was something that changed life mortality adversely to the interests of a life insurance company, you're stuck with a policy for 20 years if you write the life insurance policy. You'll keep paying your premiums if it's adverse to me. That's what's happened in long-term care insurance, for example.

But when you write a policy for one year at a time, see what the developments are. Cars, for example, are much safer to drive than they used to be. There used to be 15 deaths per 100 million miles driven. Now, there's a little over one. On the other hand, they've become much more expensive to fix. That little side view mirror, which used to cost 10 bucks, is now 1,000 bucks or something like that.

So you have things that are changing in terms of, if you're writing collision insurance, you've got to allow for the fact that the windshield, the bumper, all kinds of things, the side view mirror and all that are way more expensive. But if you're writing liability, people aren't going to die as often.

Climate has been changing. But the truth is that you now can buy really big catastrophe limits cheaper than you could buy them in 2005 or thereabouts, allowing for changes in the dollar and concentration of population. So far, rates have come down. That's the reason we've gotten out of the cab business to a great degree.

We were a very big writer of cab business 10 or 12 years ago. We aren't out of the cab business because of climate change. We're because the prices aren't right. And the world will change, and that's got very serious consequences. But it won't change that much from year to year. We've done very well during a period of some climate change.

ANDY SEWER: You've talked about technology advancing faster than our ability to understand it. And I'm wondering if social media, and Facebook, and Google, and Russian trolls coming in, is that maybe an example of that? Are you still worried about that problem?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I think cyber poses real risks to humanity. Forgetting about the problem even of misinformation. I'm just thinking of we have railroads running over 22,000 miles of track. And some of them are carrying ammonia. And some of them are carrying chlorine and things. We have to carry them. We have no choice about that. We're required by law to carry them.

I would rather do that in a non-cyber world than a cyber world. There are all kinds of things-- the problem by something like cyber is that it's moving, and it's just unpredictable whether you'll get some crazy guy, like stuck the anthrax in the-- you know, what they can do becomes magnified. You saw what 19 guys did on 9/11.

Tools in the hands or potentially in the hands of either crazy individuals, crazy groups, or even a few crazy governments are really something. And we don't necessarily know what all the tools they have are, and that is moving all the time. Again, Einstein said, I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones. It's a dangerous world.

ANDY SEWER: I don't know if you've following this, Warren, but what do you think of Elon Musk's behavior as a CEO?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I think it has room for improvement. [CHUCKLING] And he would say the same thing. It's just, some people have a talent for interesting quotes, and others have a little bit more of a blocker up there that says, this could get me in a problem. But he's a remarkable guy.

I just don't see the necessity to communicate. I think I've got seven tweets, because a friend of mine signed me up for it. And she's called me about 100 times saying, can I tweet this or that? I said yes to her seven times, I guess, or something like that. I've never actually written one myself. I don't even know how to do it.


TO BE CONTINUED
July 31, 2020


Warren Buffett reveals his investment strategy and mastering the market (PART 5).

ANDY SEWER: Have you talked to Elon ever?

WARREN BUFFETT: He joined the Giving Pledge, so once or twice, but that's a lot of years ago, seven or eight years ago. He hasn't come to our annual gathering, so I haven't seen him for seven or eight years.

ANDY SEWER: So let's talk about this trade war that's been going on a little bit with China. And, I guess, I'd like to ask you, do you think that Donald Trump was right in calling out the Chinese government and, basically, putting them on notice?

WARREN BUFFETT: I won't have any comment on that. In terms of political activity, I don't put my citizenship in a blind trust. So when the election comes around, I'll do something.

On the other hand, people will interpret things I say about any president as, to some extent, coming from Berkshire. And they and they don't come from Berkshire. I'm just an individual. I'd be glad to talk about China, but I can't talk to you about that part of it.

ANDY SEWER: Fair enough. I mean, do you think there was room for improvement, then, in terms of the trade relationship between China and the United States?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I think that China and the United States absolutely are destined to be the superpowers beyond my great-grandchildren lives and will always be competitors and will be competitors in business. We'll be competitors in ideas, all kinds of ways.

There's no other way it would be, and we just have to make sure that competition doesn't get us to a point where we don't realize that the best world is one in which both the United States and China prosper. We do not want to have an island of prosperity and the rest of the world envious of us in a nuclear age. And China doesn't. Russia doesn't.

I mean, we all recognize the dangers of letting competition get out of control. You can be competitors without being enemies. And that's what all powerful nations have to realize over time. It's different than 200 years ago when you could have some dominant country, and then they may have done some things that you didn't like. But it didn't threaten the existence of the world.

You really threatened the existence of the world as we know it if important countries do not constantly recognize that they can compete, they can fight over certain things, but they can't regard it as, essentially, the equivalent of war.

ANDY SEWER: Here's a question from Kevin Chen, who is a Berkshire shareholder and an NYU professor. And he says-- and this is sort of along the lines of what you were just saying, Warren-- but do you think the US and China will be able to resolve their differences or are conflicts unavoidable?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I don't think conflicts are unavoidable. But I think it has to be active thinking on the part of every hugely-powerful country. Russia is hugely-powerful. I mean, 90% of the nuclear arms in the world are between US and Russia.

They have to recognize that the best world for them is one where they don't try and grab all the apples, basically, and we have to recognize that. And we can't-- the United States-- we can't think that either our ideas run the world, or we start getting aggressive about things. And China can't think that. Russia can't think that.

That's obvious. You've got to be sure things don't escalate. We had World War I with an Archduke. You can get chance incidents. I asked one of the presidents one time in terms of what he would do if awakened in the middle of the night with somebody coming to him and saying, absolutely somebody else has launched. Would you launch on that? And you've got 10 minutes to decide. I wouldn't want to have that responsibility. But you want to make sure you don't get to that point.

ANDY SEWER: Right. Right. Would you ever make a big acquisition in China. And if not, aren't you missing a huge portion of--

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, the answer is, we would. We would.

ANDY SEWER: Have you looked?

WARREN BUFFETT: We've been made aware of some things, yeah.

ANDY SEWER: On the flip side of the coin, are you concerned that the rule of law is different, that the accounting might be opaque?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I'd want to be sure I understood the accounting, obviously. In some businesses, that'd be easier to do than others. But I know the laws, the customs, the accounting, the people better in the United States than any place else. So there's some small hurdle in many countries to get over, which I can get over, but it's just not as easy as looking at something where I already know the answer from previous transactions or something of the sort.

So it it's easier to make a big acquisition in the United States. I'd have to do more work if I'm looking beyond the borders. But I love the idea of doing it. When we made the acquisition in Israel a dozen years ago, I didn't know what the tax rates were there. I didn't know what corporate law. I suspected that it would all be answered satisfactorily, which it was. But I didn't just automatically know it.

ANDY SEWER: It seems like you're more open about doing a deal in China than in previous conversations.

WARREN BUFFETT: I don't think so.

ANDY SEWER: No?

WARREN BUFFETT: No.

ANDY SEWER: It's out there.

WARREN BUFFETT: I'm open. Yeah. We made two decent-sized stock acquisitions there, and that worked out fine.

ANDY SEWER: Those are?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, PetroChina and DYD.

ANDY SEWER: DYD, yeah.

WARREN BUFFETT: DYD was Charlie's. But Charlie's very well-versed on China.

ANDY SEWER: Right. The US trade deficit has been widening and, of course, a lot of that has to do with our trade with China. Is that something that worries you?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I wrote an article about it for "Fortune" and the trade situation many years ago and when our deficit got to be large in relation to GDP. I don't think it's essential to have a trade balance. But I think that, if a trade deficit gets large, and it looks like you have no way out from it, that can be a real problem over time.

You're shipping little pieces of paper to the rest of the world, and they're shipping you goods. People are working making underwear or shoes someplace, and they get little pieces of paper from us. And it gets very tempting, if you've done that enough, to make sure that those little pieces of paper aren't worth very much over time when they want to cash them for something.

We don't have any problem running trade deficits. But if we ran really large ones, and we sort of worked ourselves into a box, where we didn't really have a solution to get those numbers down, it could be a problem. And I wrote about it one time. It's kind of a nice thing, actually. Wouldn't you like to have something where you just send out little pieces of paper, and somebody could supply you with their food?

ANDY SEWER: I'm living it.

WARREN BUFFETT: Right.

ANDY SEWER: Exactly.

WARREN BUFFETT: We call them credit cards.

ANDY SEWER: Exactly. Yes. OK, and last question. China is facing its slowest growth in nearly three decades. The leadership there lowered the targets, I think, to around 6.5%, 6%. Are you concerned about this slowing growth and the impact on global markets?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I don't worry about it in terms of global markets. China is going to grow a lot over time. When you think of what's happened-- was it in 1949-- but there's been nothing really like it. You had 20% of the world's population at that time perhaps, and it really hadn't remotely achieved their potential.

They had intellectual capacity. They had decent soil, all kinds of things. And what's happened there is almost beyond belief. And that game's not over, but we've had incredible developments in the United States. Real GDP per capita is six times what it was the day I was born in the United States-- six times. And we thought we were a pretty evolved country then and everything.

My parents wouldn't have believe it. They would have thought, this kid has really got it made being born in the United States. And it was true. We had this tailwind, and China's had a hurricane behind it in recent decades.

ANDY SEWER: In a good way.

WARREN BUFFETT: Absolutely.

ANDY SEWER: Because you were comparing it to the tailwind of the hurricane at their back.

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, at their back. And they have found a way of life that is dramatically different than existed for the billion. There was a billion then, maybe a billion, two, or three, whatever it is now. They have changed a country, really, of size that, I don't think, there's ever been anything like it.

We've done it, too, but it took somewhat longer. It was more stretched out. It was a remarkable period, but when you go to-- I first went there in 1995. And then, they regarded it as a miracle. Then I went back 10 years later, and it was a whole different country beyond that.

ANDY SEWER: Warren Buffett, thanks so much for joining us. I'm Andy Serwer. You've been watching "Influencers." We'll see you next time.
July 31, 2020


How Bitcoin Disrupts the Finance Industry .

Cryptocurrencies and their underlying blockchain technology are being touted as the next-big-thing after the creation of the internet. One area where these technologies are likely to have a major impact is the financial sector. The blockchain, as a form of distributed ledger technology (DLT), has the potential to transform well-established financial institutions and bring lower costs, faster execution of transactions, improved transparency, auditability of operations, and other benefits. Cryptocurrencies hold the promise of a new native digital asset class without a central authority.

So what do these technological developments mean for the various players in the sector and end users? “Blockchains have the potential to displace any business activity built on transactions occurring on traditional corporate databases, which is what underlies nearly every financial service function. Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications. DLT is therefore both a great opportunity and also a disruptive threat,” according to Bruce Weber, dean of Lerner College and business administration professor, and Andrew Novocin, professor of electrical and computer engineering, both at the University of Delaware.

Earlier this year, Weber, Novocin, and graduate student Jonathan Wood conducted a literature review on cryptocurrencies and DLT for the SWIFT Institute. Based on this review, the SWIFT institute recently issued a grant to conduct new research on DLT and cryptocurrencies in the financial sector. Weber and Novocin noted that just as disruptors like Amazon, Google, Facebook and Uber built software platforms and thriving businesses thanks to the connectivity provided by internet standards, next-generation startups will build new services and businesses with blockchains. “Many pundits expect blockchain, as a distributed technology, to become the foundation for new services and applications that have completely different rules from those running on hierarchical and controlled databases. Cryptocurrencies are an early example but many others will follow,” they added.

Kartik Hosanagar, a Wharton professor of marketing and operations, information and decisions, pointed out that the financial services sector is full of intermediaries such as banks that help create trust among transacting parties like lenders and borrowers. Blockchain, he said, is a mechanism to create trust without centralized control. “The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies, Hosanagar pointed out that most of the value today is tied to speculative buying rather than actual use cases. But having a currency without a central authority offers “certain unique kinds of protections especially in countries with troubled central banks.” For example, Venezuela’s currency is rapidly losing value. For people who stored their savings in crypto, there was greater protection against such rapid currency devaluations. “Of course, cryptocurrencies have their own instabilities, but they aren’t tied to actions by central banks and that’s particularly relevant in countries and economies where citizens don’t trust their governments and central banks,” he said.

“Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications.”–Bruce Weber and Andrew Novocin

Hosanagar expects the first wave of applications to be rolled out in “private” blockchains where a central authority such as a financial institution and its partners are the only ones with the permission to participate (as opposed to public, permissionless blockchains where participants are anonymous and there is no central authority). Applications in the private blockchains, he said, will be more secure and will offer some of the benefits of decentralized ledgers but will not be radically different from the way things work at present. However, over time, he expects smart contracts (self-executing contracts when requirements are met) to be offered on public blockchain networks like Ethereum. “When securities are traded, intermediaries provide trust, and they charge commissions. Blockchains can help provide such trust in a low-cost manner. But trade of securities is governed by securities laws. Smart contracts offer a way to ensure compliance with the laws. They have great potential because of their ability to reduce costs while being compliant,” says Hosanagar.

According to Weber and Novocin, one area ripe for transformation is reaching consensus on important benchmark rates and prices. At present, they point out, different proprietary indexes are used to determine interest rates and the price of many mainstream assets. Blockchain can transform this. “Think of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and the recent scandals involving manipulation of benchmark values when they are controlled by a single entity that may not be capable of detecting false or fraudulent data. Blockchain could provide greater transparency around the process of creating agreed upon reference prices, and allow more people to participate in the consensus process.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in some areas intermediaries will find their roles reduced as blockchain allows for automation through greater transparency and traceability. In other areas, intermediaries will find themselves well-placed to take advantage of changing needs of their clients, as firms will need help to manage the shift to new standards as well as the greater complexity of open and traceable blockchain infrastructure. Intermediaries in areas that could potentially be disrupted, they said, “should get involved with projects seeking to set the standards, so that they can stay informed and position themselves to profit from becoming the leaders in the operations of the new markets that will emerge.”

Kevin Werbach, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, and author of a forthcoming book The Blockchain and the New Architecture of Trust,  said that it’s usually not helpful to focus on what aspects of a major existing market will be “transformed” or “disrupted” by new technologies. Important technologies, he said, are far more likely to be integrated into the system than replace it. According to Werbach, while some firms will fail to make the transition and some new ones will take hold, “over the long-run, virtually every historic innovation that eliminated some forms of intermediation also created new forms.”

Blockchain will reduce the massive duplication of information that creates delays, conflicts and confusion in many aspects of financial services, Werbach added. For example, when a syndicate of lenders participates in a loan, having one shared ledger means they don’t all need to keep track of it independently. International payments and corporate stock records are other examples where there are huge inefficiencies due to duplicate record-keeping and intermediaries. “End users won’t see the changes in the deep plumbing of financial services, but it will allow new service providers to emerge and new products to be offered,” said Werbach.

Bumps Along the Way

Angela Walch, professor of law at St. Mary’s University School of Law and a research fellow at the Centre for Blockchain Technologies at University College London, offered another perspective. She said there is a lot of excitement about blockchain as a distributed ledger technology for the financial sector because many believe that it offers a better, more efficient and more resilient form of recordkeeping. However, making use of the blockchain is not as simple as just buying new software and running it. “Blockchain technology is, at core, group recordkeeping. To reap its full benefits, one needs all the relevant members of the group to join the system. This requires collaboration with and across businesses, which is a potentially big hurdle, and may be the hurdle that most limits adoption.”

Governance is the biggest challenge in decentralized organizations, said Weber and Novocin. Members participating in a blockchain-supported financial function may have misaligned incentives, and can end up in gridlock, or with a chaotic outcome. They cite the example of the ‘DAO Hack,’ which was the first prominent smart contract project on the Ethereum network to suffer a large loss of funds. The Ethereum community voted to conduct a hard fork (a radical change to the protocol that makes previously invalid blocks/transactions valid or vice-versa) — reversing the transactions after the hack and essentially refunding the DAO investors. This was in effect a breach of Ethereum’s immutability and it left a sizeable minority of the community bitterly dissatisfied. This group viewed the Ethereum community as forsaking its commitment to immutable, permanent records. They refused to acknowledge the hard fork, and maintained the original Ethereum blockchain, now known as Ethereum Classic (whereas the forked version supported by the Ethereum Foundation is simply Ethereum).

“The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”–Kartik Hosanagar

“Distributed organizations serving an open community need to take care to design their governance systems, incentive structures and decision-making processes to create consensus without unduly slowing down the decision-making,” said Weber and Novocin. “Scenario planning or war gaming are worth exploring at the beginning of blockchain projects. Forward planning enables organizations to swiftly respond in a predictable way that is supportive of stakeholders. Publicizing these plans in advance can also build trust and user confidence.”

Cryptocurrency Risks.

Werbach listed a variety of risks and vulnerabilities related to cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin has shown that the fundamental security of its proof-of-work system is sound, but it has major limitations such as limited scalability, massive energy usage and concentration of mining pools. There has been massive theft of cryptocurrencies from the centralized intermediaries that most people use to hold it, and massive fraud by promoters of initial coin offerings and other schemes. Manipulation is widespread on lightly-regulated cryptocurrency exchanges.

For example, roughly half of Bitcoin transactions are with Tether, a “stablecoin” that claims to be backed by U.S. dollars but has never been audited and is involved in highly suspicious behavior. Money laundering and other criminal activity is a serious problem if transactions do not require some check of real-world identities. “There are major efforts to address all of these risks and vulnerabilities. Some are technical, some are business opportunities, and some are regulatory questions. There must be recognition among cryptocurrency proponents that maturation of the industry will require cooperation in many cases with incumbents and regulators,” added Werbach.

Hosanagar cautions that while decentralization offers significant value — and a significant number of miners/validators must verify the transaction for it to be validated — it is still susceptible to collusion. If one or a few companies running lots of miners/validators in a small network collude, they can affect the sanctity of the network. The big risk with cryptocurrencies, he added, is that most activity as of today is ultimately tied to speculation. It’s important for cryptocurrencies to discover a “killer app soon so there is some underlying value created beyond speculation of its future value,” Hosanagar concludes.

The Way Ahead?

Given all these challenges, what is the current mindset in the financial sector towards adopting these new technologies? And, importantly, should one push for wide acceptance and deployment, or is there need for them to stabilize first?

According to Werbach, “It’s not an either-or” choice. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in general, he noted, are immature currently. However, there are some areas where they are already able to be deployed effectively. The best way to work through today’s problems, is “to build working systems and see where difficulties arise,” Werbach said. Looking ahead, integration with law, regulation and governance will be critical. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies represent a new form of trust, he added. They will only succeed if they become sufficiently trustworthy, beyond the basic security of the distributed ledgers. “Law, regulation and governance are three major mechanisms to produce trustworthy systems that scale up to society-wide adoption. We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables. I’m optimistic about that process over time.”

“We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables.”–Kevin Werbach

Walch noted that while there are claims that some consortia are putting ‘blockchain’ systems into production, in many cases it appears that what they are calling a blockchain bears little to no resemblance to the original blockchain technology behind Bitcoin. In many instances, she said, existing shared databases are being called ‘blockchain’ for marketing purposes. “If people do use something they call DLT or blockchain technology in important financial systems, my hope is that they make the decision based on actual capabilities of the tech rather than its widely hyped and generally overstated capabilities,” Walch said. “Permissioned blockchains, which are the variation most likely to be used for financial systems recordkeeping, are very different from public blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum. I hope that a more modest and accurate understanding of the actual characteristics of permissioned blockchains sinks in before they are widely adopted.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies or cryptoassets, Walch said that the financial sector’s interest is “less about recordkeeping and more about a new financial asset that it can make money off of.” She pointed out that at present there is no clarity on how power and accountability work in these systems. The ongoing operation of crypto systems and the value they embed and support is reliant on the competence of, and ethical behavior by, unaccountable software developers and validators. “The financial sector believes it understands and can manage the risks of cryptoassets, but I am less certain and worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class. This has been a bad mixture in the past,” says Walch. “I think it would be more responsible to let cryptosystems exist on their own for a while longer to let more of the kinks get worked out — if they can be; I’m not sure the governance ones can — rather than to rapidly integrate them into the financial system as we seem to be doing.”

“I … worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class.”–Angela Walch

Conversely, Weber and Novocin feel that the financial industry is cautious about the new DLT technology. According to them, to build confidence in new blockchain systems there needs to be transparency around how the processes work and what the benefits are, and in order to secure adoption, they need to be straightforward to use. “Pundits have drawn parallels to the open source Linux operating system. Although only a few individuals use Linux directly, it quietly runs the vast majority of servers and cloud processors across the world. Similarly, early adoption of blockchain will likely happen in the background of business processes. Companies should get involved now, even if it is just to experiment with the concepts. By gaining familiarity with these new tools, they will be ready as the space continues to develop.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in the next few years, many more businesses will implement private blockchains to improve the transparency and traceability of their financial operations, supply chains, inventory management systems and other internal business systems. Clearer standards will be adopted and a few high-profile projects will emerge. Meanwhile, they said, R&D will continue among the many decentralized blockchain projects to invent more scalable public ledgers whether it be blockchain, Tangle, Hashgraph or something new. “Work is needed on better and more efficient consensus models, whether it be a new form of proof-of-stake or proof-of-work, or something else. There are many established groups, startups, companies and research teams that organizations can join, partner with, or support in order to contribute to research and expand their capabilities.”




Bitcoin (Currency),Bitcoin,Finance (Industry),Industry (Organization Sector),Brad Templeton,Singularity University,Innovation,Internet,Web,Website,Google,Disruption,Technology,Technological,Money,Currency,Gold,Big Think,BigThink,BigThink.com,Education,Educational,Lifelong Learning,EDU

July 16, 2020


How the Blockchain Will Impact the Financial Sector.

Cryptocurrencies and their underlying blockchain technology are being touted as the next-big-thing after the creation of the internet. One area where these technologies are likely to have a major impact is the financial sector. The blockchain, as a form of distributed ledger technology (DLT), has the potential to transform well-established financial institutions and bring lower costs, faster execution of transactions, improved transparency, auditability of operations, and other benefits. Cryptocurrencies hold the promise of a new native digital asset class without a central authority.

So what do these technological developments mean for the various players in the sector and end users? “Blockchains have the potential to displace any business activity built on transactions occurring on traditional corporate databases, which is what underlies nearly every financial service function. Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications. DLT is therefore both a great opportunity and also a disruptive threat,” according to Bruce Weber, dean of Lerner College and business administration professor, and Andrew Novocin, professor of electrical and computer engineering, both at the University of Delaware.

Earlier this year, Weber, Novocin, and graduate student Jonathan Wood conducted a literature review on cryptocurrencies and DLT for the SWIFT Institute. Based on this review, the SWIFT institute recently issued a grant to conduct new research on DLT and cryptocurrencies in the financial sector. Weber and Novocin noted that just as disruptors like Amazon, Google, Facebook and Uber built software platforms and thriving businesses thanks to the connectivity provided by internet standards, next-generation startups will build new services and businesses with blockchains. “Many pundits expect blockchain, as a distributed technology, to become the foundation for new services and applications that have completely different rules from those running on hierarchical and controlled databases. Cryptocurrencies are an early example but many others will follow,” they added.

Kartik Hosanagar, a Wharton professor of marketing and operations, information and decisions, pointed out that the financial services sector is full of intermediaries such as banks that help create trust among transacting parties like lenders and borrowers. Blockchain, he said, is a mechanism to create trust without centralized control. “The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies, Hosanagar pointed out that most of the value today is tied to speculative buying rather than actual use cases. But having a currency without a central authority offers “certain unique kinds of protections especially in countries with troubled central banks.” For example, Venezuela’s currency is rapidly losing value. For people who stored their savings in crypto, there was greater protection against such rapid currency devaluations. “Of course, cryptocurrencies have their own instabilities, but they aren’t tied to actions by central banks and that’s particularly relevant in countries and economies where citizens don’t trust their governments and central banks,” he said.

“Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications.”–Bruce Weber and Andrew Novocin

Hosanagar expects the first wave of applications to be rolled out in “private” blockchains where a central authority such as a financial institution and its partners are the only ones with the permission to participate (as opposed to public, permissionless blockchains where participants are anonymous and there is no central authority). Applications in the private blockchains, he said, will be more secure and will offer some of the benefits of decentralized ledgers but will not be radically different from the way things work at present. However, over time, he expects smart contracts (self-executing contracts when requirements are met) to be offered on public blockchain networks like Ethereum. “When securities are traded, intermediaries provide trust, and they charge commissions. Blockchains can help provide such trust in a low-cost manner. But trade of securities is governed by securities laws. Smart contracts offer a way to ensure compliance with the laws. They have great potential because of their ability to reduce costs while being compliant,” says Hosanagar.

According to Weber and Novocin, one area ripe for transformation is reaching consensus on important benchmark rates and prices. At present, they point out, different proprietary indexes are used to determine interest rates and the price of many mainstream assets. Blockchain can transform this. “Think of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and the recent scandals involving manipulation of benchmark values when they are controlled by a single entity that may not be capable of detecting false or fraudulent data. Blockchain could provide greater transparency around the process of creating agreed upon reference prices, and allow more people to participate in the consensus process.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in some areas intermediaries will find their roles reduced as blockchain allows for automation through greater transparency and traceability. In other areas, intermediaries will find themselves well-placed to take advantage of changing needs of their clients, as firms will need help to manage the shift to new standards as well as the greater complexity of open and traceable blockchain infrastructure. Intermediaries in areas that could potentially be disrupted, they said, “should get involved with projects seeking to set the standards, so that they can stay informed and position themselves to profit from becoming the leaders in the operations of the new markets that will emerge.”

Kevin Werbach, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, and author of a forthcoming book The Blockchain and the New Architecture of Trust,  said that it’s usually not helpful to focus on what aspects of a major existing market will be “transformed” or “disrupted” by new technologies. Important technologies, he said, are far more likely to be integrated into the system than replace it. According to Werbach, while some firms will fail to make the transition and some new ones will take hold, “over the long-run, virtually every historic innovation that eliminated some forms of intermediation also created new forms.”


Blockchain will reduce the massive duplication of information that creates delays, conflicts and confusion in many aspects of financial services, Werbach added. For example, when a syndicate of lenders participates in a loan, having one shared ledger means they don’t all need to keep track of it independently. International payments and corporate stock records are other examples where there are huge inefficiencies due to duplicate record-keeping and intermediaries. “End users won’t see the changes in the deep plumbing of financial services, but it will allow new service providers to emerge and new products to be offered,” said Werbach.

Bumps Along the Way

Angela Walch, professor of law at St. Mary’s University School of Law and a research fellow at the Centre for Blockchain Technologies at University College London, offered another perspective. She said there is a lot of excitement about blockchain as a distributed ledger technology for the financial sector because many believe that it offers a better, more efficient and more resilient form of recordkeeping. However, making use of the blockchain is not as simple as just buying new software and running it. “Blockchain technology is, at core, group recordkeeping. To reap its full benefits, one needs all the relevant members of the group to join the system. This requires collaboration with and across businesses, which is a potentially big hurdle, and may be the hurdle that most limits adoption.”

Governance is the biggest challenge in decentralized organizations, said Weber and Novocin. Members participating in a blockchain-supported financial function may have misaligned incentives, and can end up in gridlock, or with a chaotic outcome. They cite the example of the ‘DAO Hack,’ which was the first prominent smart contract project on the Ethereum network to suffer a large loss of funds. The Ethereum community voted to conduct a hard fork (a radical change to the protocol that makes previously invalid blocks/transactions valid or vice-versa) — reversing the transactions after the hack and essentially refunding the DAO investors. This was in effect a breach of Ethereum’s immutability and it left a sizeable minority of the community bitterly dissatisfied. This group viewed the Ethereum community as forsaking its commitment to immutable, permanent records. They refused to acknowledge the hard fork, and maintained the original Ethereum blockchain, now known as Ethereum Classic (whereas the forked version supported by the Ethereum Foundation is simply Ethereum).

“The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”–Kartik Hosanagar

“Distributed organizations serving an open community need to take care to design their governance systems, incentive structures and decision-making processes to create consensus without unduly slowing down the decision-making,” said Weber and Novocin. “Scenario planning or war gaming are worth exploring at the beginning of blockchain projects. Forward planning enables organizations to swiftly respond in a predictable way that is supportive of stakeholders. Publicizing these plans in advance can also build trust and user confidence.”

Cryptocurrency Risks.

Werbach listed a variety of risks and vulnerabilities related to cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin has shown that the fundamental security of its proof-of-work system is sound, but it has major limitations such as limited scalability, massive energy usage and concentration of mining pools. There has been massive theft of cryptocurrencies from the centralized intermediaries that most people use to hold it, and massive fraud by promoters of initial coin offerings and other schemes. Manipulation is widespread on lightly-regulated cryptocurrency exchanges.

For example, roughly half of Bitcoin transactions are with Tether, a “stablecoin” that claims to be backed by U.S. dollars but has never been audited and is involved in highly suspicious behavior. Money laundering and other criminal activity is a serious problem if transactions do not require some check of real-world identities. “There are major efforts to address all of these risks and vulnerabilities. Some are technical, some are business opportunities, and some are regulatory questions. There must be recognition among cryptocurrency proponents that maturation of the industry will require cooperation in many cases with incumbents and regulators,” added Werbach.

Hosanagar cautions that while decentralization offers significant value — and a significant number of miners/validators must verify the transaction for it to be validated — it is still susceptible to collusion. If one or a few companies running lots of miners/validators in a small network collude, they can affect the sanctity of the network. The big risk with cryptocurrencies, he added, is that most activity as of today is ultimately tied to speculation. It’s important for cryptocurrencies to discover a “killer app soon so there is some underlying value created beyond speculation of its future value,” Hosanagar concludes.

The Way Ahead?

Given all these challenges, what is the current mindset in the financial sector towards adopting these new technologies? And, importantly, should one push for wide acceptance and deployment, or is there need for them to stabilize first?

According to Werbach, “It’s not an either-or” choice. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in general, he noted, are immature currently. However, there are some areas where they are already able to be deployed effectively. The best way to work through today’s problems, is “to build working systems and see where difficulties arise,” Werbach said. Looking ahead, integration with law, regulation and governance will be critical. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies represent a new form of trust, he added. They will only succeed if they become sufficiently trustworthy, beyond the basic security of the distributed ledgers. “Law, regulation and governance are three major mechanisms to produce trustworthy systems that scale up to society-wide adoption. We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables. I’m optimistic about that process over time.”

“We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables.”–Kevin Werbach

Walch noted that while there are claims that some consortia are putting ‘blockchain’ systems into production, in many cases it appears that what they are calling a blockchain bears little to no resemblance to the original blockchain technology behind Bitcoin. In many instances, she said, existing shared databases are being called ‘blockchain’ for marketing purposes. “If people do use something they call DLT or blockchain technology in important financial systems, my hope is that they make the decision based on actual capabilities of the tech rather than its widely hyped and generally overstated capabilities,” Walch said. “Permissioned blockchains, which are the variation most likely to be used for financial systems recordkeeping, are very different from public blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum. I hope that a more modest and accurate understanding of the actual characteristics of permissioned blockchains sinks in before they are widely adopted.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies or cryptoassets, Walch said that the financial sector’s interest is “less about recordkeeping and more about a new financial asset that it can make money off of.” She pointed out that at present there is no clarity on how power and accountability work in these systems. The ongoing operation of crypto systems and the value they embed and support is reliant on the competence of, and ethical behavior by, unaccountable software developers and validators. “The financial sector believes it understands and can manage the risks of cryptoassets, but I am less certain and worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class. This has been a bad mixture in the past,” says Walch. “I think it would be more responsible to let cryptosystems exist on their own for a while longer to let more of the kinks get worked out — if they can be; I’m not sure the governance ones can — rather than to rapidly integrate them into the financial system as we seem to be doing.”

“I … worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class.”–Angela Walch

Conversely, Weber and Novocin feel that the financial industry is cautious about the new DLT technology. According to them, to build confidence in new blockchain systems there needs to be transparency around how the processes work and what the benefits are, and in order to secure adoption, they need to be straightforward to use. “Pundits have drawn parallels to the open source Linux operating system. Although only a few individuals use Linux directly, it quietly runs the vast majority of servers and cloud processors across the world. Similarly, early adoption of blockchain will likely happen in the background of business processes. Companies should get involved now, even if it is just to experiment with the concepts. By gaining familiarity with these new tools, they will be ready as the space continues to develop.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in the next few years, many more businesses will implement private blockchains to improve the transparency and traceability of their financial operations, supply chains, inventory management systems and other internal business systems. Clearer standards will be adopted and a few high-profile projects will emerge. Meanwhile, they said, R&D will continue among the many decentralized blockchain projects to invent more scalable public ledgers whether it be blockchain, Tangle, Hashgraph or something new. “Work is needed on better and more efficient consensus models, whether it be a new form of proof-of-stake or proof-of-work, or something else. There are many established groups, startups, companies and research teams that organizations can join, partner with, or support in order to contribute to research and expand their capabilities.”




Bitcoin (Currency),Bitcoin,Finance (Industry),Industry (Organization Sector),Brad Templeton,Singularity University,Innovation,Internet,Web,Website,Google,Disruption,Technology,Technological,Money,Currency,Gold,Big Think,BigThink,BigThink.com,Education,Educational,Lifelong Learning,EDU

July 16, 2020


How to Start an Investment Club.

If you're interested in investing but don't want to go at it alone, you can join an investment club or even start one of your own. An investment club consists of members who study stocks, bonds and other investments. The goal is to have each member take an industry and report to the group why they think it is a great investment. Knowledge is power, and wisdom from many helps assure success. Many times they will pool their money together in order to make joint investment decisions. It's a great way to give and get wisdom. Working with others will help you and others make intelligent investment decisions.

Part 1 Getting Your Club Together.
1. Find potential members for your club. They can be local, so you can meet in person, or they can live far away, and you can meet online. Aim for a club with 10 to 15 members, but anything from six to 20 is workable. When you have fewer people you might have trouble getting enough funds together to invest (some investments favor the larger investor). However, with a large group, both maintaining high-quality discussions and finding a place to meet become concerns.
Spread the word. Tell family, friends, and co-workers about your club-in-the-making. Put together a flyer describing what you have in mind, and pass it out, post it on message boards, send it through e-mail, etc.
2. Hold a preliminary meeting. Get together with the people who are interested, provide snacks and refreshments, and discuss the formation of a club.
Define goals. Are people more interested in the club for its educational value, or for the financial returns? Are they interested in short-term or long-term investing? (Most investment clubs use a buy-and-hold strategy.) Will your members share a general investing philosophy and approach?
Determine how much each member can contribute financially.
If people make different contributions, their returns should be proportional.
You can either pool your investment funds and invest together (a common practice) or invest through individual accounts (self-directed).
Consider starting your club through BetterInvesting.org, an organization that can provide education, support, and online tools and resources for your club.
Determine if your club needs to register with the SEC. You can find more information on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission at: https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/invclub.htm
3. Gauge member interest level. In other words, decide whether you really want to invest with these people. An investment club will involve significant risk for those involved. The risks, and consequently the rewards, are shared among all members. This means that everyone involved should be equally interested and participate similarly. Be on the lookout for red flags among your potential members. For example, consider carefully members that might.
4. Hold an organizational meeting to iron out the details. Have another get-together with the people who are still interested to discuss and implement the club's policy and organization. The first step should be to decide on an official name for your group. Next you'll want to decide when and where to meet (a living room, library, church, or coffeehouse, depending on the size of the group). Meetings should last an hour or two. After defining these basic rules, consider also doing the following.
Defining and appointing roles within the club (president, secretary, treasurer, investor). What are their responsibilities? The terms should be one or two years, and the treasurer should have an assistant who can move up later.
Writing out how the club will manage payouts, divestiture (reducing assets or investments), or dissolution.
Laying out the policies on gaining new members and figuring out what happens when a member wants to leave the club.
5. File the necessary paperwork. In order to pool your money and invest together, you will need to incorporate your investment club into what is known as a general partnership. You will have to write out the rules of this partnership and its operation and have each member sign it once you all agree.
You should also write a club operating agreement. This would outline all the policies discussed in the previous meeting and should be signed by everyone in the group (as well as others who may join later). There are sample contracts and agreements available online and in books.
To pay taxes, you also have to apply with the IRS for an Employer Identification Number (EIN) and file a "Certificate of Conducting Business as Partners" form with a local jurisdiction (such as a Secretary of State office). Contact your local jurisdiction (city, county, or state) for more information.

Part 2 Investing with Your Club
1. Open a brokerage account or bank account. Most clubs start with both a checking and a brokerage account. Choose a broker who suits your needs (full-service, discount, or online). A full-service broker will provide advice and may attend a few meetings, while a discount or online broker will leave you to your own devices. Many investment clubs end up choosing the latter.
2. Develop an educational agenda. In most cases, investment clubs are formed by people who are still learning about investing. Not everyone is on the same page in terms of his knowledge base. Ask each member what big Question : s they have about investing. Having them submit Question : s anonymously is a good option. Choose the topics you feel should be addressed as a group. Make a "syllabus" and decide who will be doing the research and presenting the topic to the group.
You may also wish to provide a list of good, reliable sources for research. In general, you should stick to reputable financial news services and online investing encyclopedias.
3. Research potential first investments. After a period of time, when contributions to the club have been made by group members, you're ready to start looking at first investments. Have each club member research potential asset purchases like stocks, mutual funds, or investment properties and defend her choices with research. Then, you can have the group vote on their favorite choices and determine how much money to allocate to each.
Remember to keep some of your initial money uninvested in case the market presents an opportunity.
4. Invest as a group. Finalize your choices for your first investment and take the plunge. As your club continues operating, evaluate new and old investments during your regular meetings. These will typically be held once a month, although market conditions may dictate more frequent gatherings. In these meetings you should also:
Review club finances (overall gains or losses, individual investment progress and cash balance available for investment).
Make sure you have designated a single, trustworthy member who has the authority to buy and sell on behalf of the club.
5. Have fun. Celebrate your victories and commiserate your losses. This is one of the biggest reasons people join investment clubs. You could even set aside some of your gains for group outings or events. The idea is to keep everyone entertained and involved in the group so that they keep contributing funds each month and don't get bored over time.

Community Q&A.

Question : Can a group of my friends start a club where we focus on trading Futures contracts?
Answer : Yes, you can focus on any sort of investment you like. Find a full-service broker who's very experienced in that area unless you know what you're doing, in which case you can use an online brokerage.
Question : I have an existing Investment Club of 20 years and now our broker is asking for an updated membership list. We have had numerous changes in membership that we have not made officially through our by-laws. What should we do?
Answer : It is not necessary for your by-laws to list your members by name. It's a good idea, however, to keep a current membership list. Let it include identifying information such as Social Security numbers. Share that list with your broker. He may be required by law to have that information on file. If your club has a secretary or treasurer, it can be that person's responsibility to keep your membership list current along with all individual contributions and earnings.
Question : Can whole life insurance be a viable investment tool for investment clubs?
Answer : No. Life insurance could potentially be a decent investment for an individual but not for a group.
Question : We are forming an investment club for stocks, real estate, etc. How do we register and what type of account do we need?
Answer : "Registration" is not necessary. You are simply private parties making private investments. If you'll be making group purchases, you'll want a checking account for the club, as well as trading accounts with one or more brokerages. (You don't have to work exclusively with one broker.)
Question : Why, when we leave the investment club, do we only get 95% of our money?
Answer : Read the by-laws of your club. There may be a provision stating that the club retains 5% of your money for maintenance purposes.
Question : In this era where investing in stocks is highly risky, what other investment windows would you advise?
Answer : Bonds are usually considered to be less risky than stocks. You can invest in certain mutual funds that own an array of bonds. Some mutual funds invest mainly in stocks, and that's a way of diversifying your stock investment and taking on less risk. Money-market instruments such as certificates of deposit (CDs) are safe investments, but they don't pay very much interest. Unfortunately, that's usually the case: the safer the investment, the less it's likely to pay you.
Question : There are six of us. We want to pull our funds together each month and ultimately invest it. Would we need to register our group as a limited partnership the state's secretary of state office?
Answer : Probably a general partnership. Re-read Part 1, Step 5 above.
Question : Are we limited as a group to investing in stocks, bonds and real estate? Can we also invest in things like buying and selling cars, boats, auctioned-off storage units, estate sales, etc.?
Answer : A club is free to choose its own investments without restrictions.
Question : How should the profits be shared among the club members?
Answer : Profits are commonly shared in direct proportion to the amount of each member's investment, but you can agree on other arrangements if you like, such as recognizing certain members' investing prowess or willingness to do administrative work on the club's behalf.

Tips.

Don't invest immediately. Give the group a couple of months to deposit money. This will weed out those who aren't really committed to the club or who can't afford it.
When an investment goes wrong, keep your pointing finger to yourself. Use the experience to learn what not to do. Go back to the drawing board and change things if need be.
Trust has to be established for the club to be effective.
Limit investments to cash with no leverage. If margin accounts are used, every partner may be liable for the full debt.

Warnings.

Make sure that everyone understands that they might not make money and could actually lose money. Not all investments are profitable. If they were, everyone would be doing it.
Proper planning, a supportive group, and an understanding leader are vital in promoting cohesion and optimism within the group
Some members may be tempted to embezzle funds. This is why having an operating agreement and ironing out the details is important. So is your choice of club officers.
Be ready for the fact that your group will experience emotional highs and lows in the course of investing their hard-earned money.
July 02, 2020


How to Do Technical Analysis.


Technical analysis evolved from the stock market theories of Charles Henry Dow, founder of the Wall Street Journal and co-founder of Dow Jones and Company. The goal of technical analysis is to predict the future price of stocks, commodities, futures and other tradeable securities based on past prices and performance of those securities. Technical analysts apply the law of supply and demand to understand how the stock market and other securities exchanges work, identifying trends and profiting from them. The following steps will help you understand technical analysis and how it is applied to choosing stocks and other commodities.

Steps.
1. Understand Dow's theories behind technical analysis. Three of Dow's theories about investments form the underpinnings of technical analysis and serve to guide the technical analyst's approach to financial markets. Those theories are described below with an explanation of how technical analysts interpret them.
Market fluctuations reflect all known information. Technical analysts believe that changes in the price of a security and how well it trades in the market reflect all the available information about that security as garnered from all pertinent sources. Price listings are therefore thought of as fair value. Sudden changes in how a stock trades often precedes major news about the company that issued the stock. Technical analysts don't concern themselves with the price-to-earnings ratio, shareholder equity, return on equity or other factors that fundamental analysts consider.
Price movements can often be charted and predicted. Technical analysts acknowledge that there are periods when prices move randomly, but there are also times when they move in an identifiable trend. Once a trend is identified, it is possible to make money from it, either by buying low and selling high during an upward trend (bull market) or by selling short during a downward trend (bear market). By adjusting the length of time the market is being analyzed, it is possible to spot both short- and long-term trends.
History repeats itself. People don't change their motivations overnight; traders can be expected to react the same way to current conditions as they did in the past when those same conditions occurred. Because people react predictably, technical analysts can use their knowledge of how other traders reacted in the past to profit each time conditions repeat themselves. In this respect, technical analysis differs from "efficient market theory," which ignores the effect that human actions and reactions have on the market.
2. Look for quick results. Unlike fundamental analysis, which looks at balance sheets and other financial data over relatively long periods of time, technical analysis focuses on periods no longer than a month and sometimes as short as a few minutes. It is suited to people who seek to make money from securities by repeatedly buying and selling them rather than those who invest for the long term.
3. Read charts to spot price trends. Technical analysts look at charts and graphs of security prices to spot the general direction in which prices are headed, overlooking individual fluctuations. Trends are classified by type and duration.
Up trends, characterized by highs and lows that become progressively higher.
Down trends are seen when successive highs and lows are progressively lower.
Horizontal trends in which successive highs and lows fail to change much from previous highs and lows.
Trend lines are drawn to connect successive highs to each other and successive lows to each other. This makes spotting trends easy. Such trend lines are often called channel lines.
Trends are classified as major trends when they last longer than a year, as intermediate trends when they last at least a month but less than a year, and as near-term trends when they last less than a month. Intermediate trends are made up of near-term trends, and major trends are made up of near-term and intermediate trends, which may not go in the same direction as the larger trend they are part of. (An example of this would be a month-long downward price correction in a year-long bull market. The bull market is a major trend, while the price correction is an intermediate trend within it.)
Technical analysts use four kinds of charts. They use line charts to plot closing stock prices over a period of time, bar and candlestick charts to show the high and low prices for the trading period (and gaps between trading periods if there are any), and point and figure charts to show significant price movements over a period of time.
Technical analysts have coined certain phrases for patterns that appear on the charts they analyze. A pattern resembling a head and shoulders indicates that a trend is about to reverse itself. A pattern resembling a cup and handle indicates that an upward trend will continue after pausing for a short downward correction. A rounding bottom, or saucer bottom pattern indicates a long-term bottoming out of a downward trend before an upswing. A double top or double bottom pattern indicates two failed attempts to exceed a high or low price, which will be followed by a reversal of the trend. (Similarly, a triple top or bottom shows three failed attempts that precede a trend reversal.) Other patterns include triangles, wedges, pennants and flags.
4. Understand the concepts of support and resistance. Support refers to the lowest price a security reaches before more buyers come in and drive the price up. Resistance refers to the highest price a security reaches before owners sell their shares and cause the price to fall again. These levels are not fixed, but fluctuate. On a chart depicting channel lines, the bottom line is the support line (floor price for the security), while the top line is the resistance line (ceiling price). Support and resistance levels are used to confirm the existence of a trend and to identify when the trend reverses itself.
Because people tend to think in round numbers (10, 20, 25, 50, 100, 500, 1,000, and so on), support and resistance prices are often given in round numbers.
It is possible for stock prices to rise above resistance levels or fall below support levels. In such cases, the resistance level may become a support level for a new, higher resistance level; or the support level may become a resistance level for a new, lower support level. For this to happen, the price has to make a strong, sustained change. Such reversals may be common in the short term.
Generally, when securities are trading near a support level, technical analysts tend to avoid buying because of concern for price volatility. They may, however, buy within a few points of that level. Those who sell short use the support price as their trading point.
5. Pay attention to the volume of trades. How much buying and selling goes on indicates the validity of a trend or whether it's reversing itself. If the trading volume increases substantially even as the price rises substantially, the trend is probably valid. If the trading volume increases only slightly (or even falls) as the price goes up, the trend is probably due to reverse itself.
6. Use moving averages to filter out minor price fluctuations. A moving average is a series of calculated averages measured over successive, equal periods of time. Moving averages remove unrepresentative highs and lows, making it easier to see overall trends. Plotting prices against moving averages, or short-term averages against long-term averages, makes it easier to spot trend reversals. There are several averaging methods used.
The simple moving average (SMA) is found by adding together all the closing prices during the time period and dividing that sum by the number of prices included.
The linear weighted average takes each price and multiplies it by its position on the chart before adding the prices together and dividing by the number of prices. Thus, over a five-day period, the first price would be multiplied by 1, the second by 2, the third by 3, the fourth by 4 and the fifth by 5.
An exponential moving average (EMA) is similar to the linear moving average, except that it weighs only the most recent prices used in computing the average, making it more responsive to the latest information than a simple moving average.
7. Use indicators and oscillators to support what the price movements are telling you. Indicators are calculations that support the trend information gleaned from price movements and add another factor into your decision to buy or sell securities. (The moving averages described above are an example of an indicator.) Some indicators can have any value, while others are restricted to a particular range of values, such as 0 to 100. The latter indicators are termed oscillators.
Indicators may be either leading or lagging. Leading indicators predict price movements and are most useful during horizontal trends to signal uptrends or downtrends. Lagging indicators confirm price movements and are most useful during uptrends and downtrends.
Trend indicators include the average directional index (ADX) and the Aroon indicator. The ADX uses positive and negative directional indicators to determine how strong an uptrend or downtrend is on a scale of 0 to 100. Values below 20 indicate a weak trend and over 40 a strong one. The Aroon indicator plots the lengths of time since the highest and lowest trading prices were reached, using that data to determine the nature and strength of the trend or the onset of a new trend.
The best known volume indicator is the moving average convergence-divergence (MACD) indicator. It is the difference between two exponential moving averages, one short-term and the other long-term, as plotted against a center line that represents where the two averages equal each other. A positive MACD value shows that the short-term average is above the long-term average and the market should move upward. A negative MACD value shows that the short-term average is below the long-term average and that the market is moving downward. When the MACD is plotted on a chart, and its line crosses the centerline, it shows when the moving averages that make it up cross over. Another volume-related indicator, the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator, is the total trading volume for a given period, a positive number when the price is up and a negative number when the price is down. Unlike the MACD, the actual value of the number has less meaning than whether the number is positive or negative.
How frequently securities are being traded is tracked by both the relative strength index (RSI) and the stochastic oscillator. The RSI ranges from 0 to 100; a value over 70 suggests that the security being evaluated is being bought too frequently, while a value under 30 suggests it is being sold too frequently. RSI is normally used for 14-day periods but may be used for shorter periods, making it more volatile. The stochastic oscillator also runs from 0 to 100. It signals too frequent buying at values over 80 and too frequent selling at values under 20.


Community Q&A

Question : What is meant by selling short during a downward trend?
Answer : It means borrowing shares of stock from a broker in order to sell them at one price, then waiting for their price to drop (in the "downward trend") so you can buy them back at the lower price, thus making a profit (at which point you give the shares back to the broker). This is purely a gamble (but a popular one among some professional investors).
Question : What is meant by "buy at pullback and sell at strength"?
Answer : That's another way of saying "buy low, sell high." A "pullback" is a reversal in a rising trend, offering a brief opportunity to buy at a relatively low price. "Strength" is a high price relative to recent levels.
Question : What is meant by saying, "Buy low, sell high"?
Answer : It means you should sell shares only when they are valued at a price higher than the price at which you purchased them. In practice, it means you should buy shares only after they have recently fallen in price, and you should sell shares only after they have recently risen in price -- again assuming the selling price is higher than the original purchase price. That's not always easy to do, but that's the theoretical objective in owning stock.
Question : How can I watch how technical analysis works?
Answer : You would have to find and contact a value investor, and ask if they would let you observe them at work. A stockbroker might be able to help you find such an investor.

Tips.

While most brokerage houses are geared toward long-term investing and employ mostly fundamental analysts, many now employ a few technical analysts as well.

Warnings.
Although some technical analysts use a single indicator or oscillator to tell them whether to buy or sell, indicators are best used in conjunction with one another and with price movements and chart patterns.
Know the limitations of technical analysis: it doesn't always work. For example, the most perfect head and shoulder top pattern possible may be formed (thought to be an extremely bearish technical indicator), and you sell the stock, only to see a huge extended rally from there, leaving you behind. Do not rely exclusively on technical analysis. Use it as a guide, and combine it with fundamental analysis.
June 25, 2020

How to Prepare for Economic Collapse.


An economic collapse means a breakdown of the national economy. It would be characterized by a long-term downturn in economic activity, increased poverty and a disruption of the social order, including protests, riots and possibly violence. In some cases, this collapse would be akin to a deep recession, with society still functioning basically as normal (just with more poverty). However, it could be much worse. You should prepare for the worst, but adjust your actions to the actual severity of the collapse. You can prepare for an economic collapse by preparing financially, stocking up on the essentials, and monitoring the economic indicators.

Method 1 Preparing Your Finances.
1. Start an emergency fund. If you are living paycheck to paycheck and you lose your job during an economic collapse, you are at risk for losing your home and living in poverty. It won’t be easy to find another job and replace your income. Your goal should be to save up enough to cover six months of expenses in your emergency fund.
If you are trying to get out of debt, save up an emergency fund of $1,000 and then apply all of your extra income to your debt. Once your debt is paid off, you can divert more money into your emergency fund.
Keep your emergency fund separate from your checking account so that you are not tempted to use the money. Put it in a low-risk, interest-bearing account such as a savings account, money market account or certificate of deposit (CD).
On the other hand, a complete economic collapse would leave you unable to access your bank account, because of the crash of the financial system. Additionally, your money may become useless or extremely devalued. Consider stocking other commodities that you could barter with in an economic collapse, like alcohol, precious metals (gold and silver), and fuel.
2. Have cash on hand. Depending on where you have it, money in your emergency fund might be hard to liquidate. Bonds, for example, must be sold, and other investments like CD’s might charge fees for early withdrawal. Also, if you have a savings account with an online bank instead of a brick-and-mortar institution, it might take several days to withdraw your money. It’s important to have cash that you can access easily, either from a savings account or a cash box in your home. This can tide you over in an emergency until you can access money in your emergency fund.
3. Generate an additional source of income. Start a home business as a second source of income. If you lose your job because of an economic collapse, it might be difficult or even impossible to find another job. Having an alternative source of income can help you to keep your home and avoid poverty. Choose your business idea based on skills that you have and things that you enjoy doing. In addition, think about how likely it will be that people will require these services in an economic collapse; people may need basic necessities like clean water or food more than they need an interior decorator.
Provide services to people in their homes, such as house cleaning, home organization, meal preparation, or interior decorating.
Sell goods you produce, such as baked goods, custom clothing or jewelry.
4. Get out of debt. In a financial collapse, many people are going to lose their jobs and their homes. To prepare for this possibility, you should make a plan to get out of debt as quickly as possible. This way, if you do lose your job, you don’t have to worry about finding a way to pay these bills. The worst kind of debt to have is credit card debt. Because of the high interest rates that many people have, carrying a balance on a credit card can cost you a great deal of money.
Create a budget in order to track your income and expenses. Make a plan to have a surplus of money left over at the end of the month to apply towards your debt. This means reducing your expenses and possibly finding additional work to supplement your income.
Organize your debt so you can make a plan to pay it off. You can choose from a few different methods for planning how to pay off your debt. Whichever method you choose, it is important to stick with it.
One method is to order your debts from smallest to biggest, regardless of the interest rate, and pay off the smallest debts first. This helps you build momentum.
Another method is laddering, which means paying off the debt with the highest interest rates first. This makes the most sense mathematically because it reduces the amount of interest expense you pay in the long-term.
That said, in a true economic collapse, your creditors would likely have other things to worry about than just finding you and recovering your debts. Additionally, currency may be greatly devalued or completely useless, meaning that the amount stated on your debt balance would be equally depressed or meaningless.

Method 2 Storing the Essentials.
1. Store emergency water. In the event of an economic collapse, it is possible that your power and water supply might be interrupted, or that you will not be able to pay for these things. You will need a supply of clean water for drinking, cooking and hygiene. You can purchase bottles of water or store water in your own containers. If you run out of water, you can take steps to sanitize contaminated water.
Store at least one gallon of water per person for a minimum of three days or for up to two weeks. Don’t forget to include pets in this equation.
If you are storing water in your own containers, wash them first with dish soap and water and sanitize them with a solution of 1 teaspoon of liquid chlorine bleach to a quart of water.
To make water safe, you can boil it and filter it through a clean cloth, paper towel or coffee filter.
2. Stockpile food. The kind of food you store up for an emergency is different from the groceries you purchase each week. You need to get food that is non-perishable, does not have to be refrigerated and will provide you with the nutrition you need to survive. It may be very different from the food you are used to eating, but you will be glad you have it if you ever need it.
Purchase food that does not have to be refrigerated or frozen so you don’t have to worry about power outages. These foods include canned goods, peanut butter and beef or turkey jerky.
Include foods highly nutritious foods that are easy to store, such as dried foods, nuts, beans, canned meat and vegetables and powdered milk.
For comfort foods, avoid snack foods that will quickly expire. Instead, stock up on spaghetti and spaghetti sauce, soups, sugar and honey for canning and baking, dried fruit, coffee and tea and hard candy.
If necessary, stock pile baby food and formula, Don’t forget to include pet food if you have pets.
Keep a manual can opener with your stockpile.
3. Start a garden. A garden allows you to continually have fresh, nutritious food to supplement your emergency food supply. Also, in an economic crisis the cost of living might skyrocket. Having a garden will help you to save money on your grocery bills. It will also allow you to be self-sufficient should a food shortage result from the financial collapse.
If you don’t have a lot of space, consider starting a container garden.
If you don’t have good soil, purchase humus soil or top soil. Add peat moss, composted manure and plant fertilizers.
Choose vegetables and herbs that are easy to grow, including beans and peas, carrots, greens like lettuce, cabbage, spinach and kale, potatoes and sweet potatoes, squash, tomatoes, broccoli, berries and melons.
4. Create an emergency kit. This is a collection of household items you might need in an emergency. In the event of an economic collapse, you may not be able to shop for these supplies, so it’s important to have them on hand. Keep your supplies in a container that’s easy to carry in case you have to evacuate for some reason.
Include an extra set of car keys, blankets, matches, a multi-use tool, maps of the area, a flashlight, a battery-powered or hand-cranked radio, extra batteries, matches and a cell phone and chargers.
Have some household liquid bleach on hand for disinfecting.
Make copies of all important documents, such as proof of address, deed/lease to home, passports, birth certificates and insurance policies.
Have a list of family and emergency contact numbers, Include baby supplies such as baby food, formula, diapers and bottles.
Remember pet supplies like food, collars, leashes and food bowls.
5. Gather first aid and medical supplies. You can purchase a first aid kit or put one together yourself. Either way, make sure it has all of the necessary supplies. Include personal items such as medications for yourself and members of your family. Check the kit regularly to make sure nobody has used any of the supplies. Also, check the expiration dates and replace expired items.
Keep a first aid manual with your first aid kit.
Include dressings and bandages, such as adhesive bandages in various sizes, sterile gauze pads and a gauze roll, adhesive tape, elastic bandages and sterile cotton balls.
Add equipment and other supplies, like latex or non-latex gloves, instant cold packs, a thermometer, safety pins to fasten splints or bandages, tweezers, scissors and hand sanitizer.
Have medicines for cuts and injuries, such as antiseptic solution like hydrogen peroxide, antibiotic ointment, calamine lotion for stings or poison ivy, hydrocortisone cream for itching and an eyewash solution.
Include contact lens solution if necessary.
Other medicines to have include pain and fever medicines like aspirin, acetaminophen or ibuprofen, antihistamines for allergies, decongestants for colds, anti-nausea medicine, anti-diarrhea medicine, antacids and laxatives.

Method 3 Preserving Food.
1. Preserve meat and fish. In an economic collapse, food stores could become dangerously low. If you are going to stock up on meat and fish ahead of time, you will need to know how to cure it. This will allow it stay fresh and edible much longer. Also, it can be stored at room temperature. This will be helpful in the event of a power outage.
2. Salt cure meat. Salt curing means using salt to kill the microbes that would spoil it. For every 100 pounds of meat, you need 8 pounds of salt, 2 ounces of saltpeter and 3 pounds of sugar. Apply the cure mixture directly to the meat. For bacon, allow the meat to cure for 7 days per inch of thickness. For ham, leave the mixture on for a day and a half per pound. After curing, rub off the salt under running water and allow it to dry.
If the outdoor temperature is expected to rise above 40 degrees Fahrenheit, you will need to allow the meat to cure in a meat locker.
If the outdoor temperature is below freezing, allow an extra day for curing.
3. Smoke cure meat. Wood smoking meat not only adds flavor, but it also protects your meat from pests and spoilage. Cold smoking smokes the meat without cooking it. Hang the meat in a smoke house, light the fire and allow the meat to smoke for 10 to 20 hours. You can purchase a ready-made smoke house or plans to build your own.
Use aromatic woods to add flavor, such as hickory, mesquite, apple, cherry, pear or cranberry-apple.
Woods to avoid include all conifers, crape myrtle, hackberry, sycamore and holly.
4. Jerky meat. To make meat jerky, you can use a store-bought dehydrator. However, if you do not have one of those, you can do it in your oven by cooking it at a low temperature for several hours. Choose an inexpensive cut of meat, such as brisket. Trim the fat and slice thin strips against the grain. Season the meat with salt and pepper, and if desired, marinate it overnight with diluted barbecue sauce. Arrange the slices on a cooking grate, and put them in the oven at 170 degrees Fahrenheit for two to six hours.
Line your oven with foil for easy cleanup, Prop the oven door open with a wooden spoon to allow air to circulate.
Partially freeze meat before slicing to make it easier to slice.
5. Can fruits and vegetables. Canning involves heating food in a glass jar to remove the air and prevent spoilage. Choose from two methods to can food: water bath and pressure canning. The method you choose depends on the kind of food you want to can. Water bath canning is for jams, jellies and for acidic foods such as tomatoes, berries or cucumbers in vinegar. For main meal foods such as meat, beans and other vegetables, use pressure canning. To ensure safety, always use tried and true recipes.
6. Can with the water bath method. Gather a deep pot with a lid, a rack that fits into the pot, glass preserving jars, lids and bands and a jar lifter. Check the jars and lids for nicks and scratches which would prevent proper canning and allow spoilage to occur. Heat the jars in a pot of boiling water or in the dishwasher. Prepare your recipe and fill the hot jars with the food. Place the lids on the jars and immerse them in boiling water. Make sure the water covers the jars by 1 to 2 inches. Leave them in the water for the amount of time stated in the recipe. Remove the jars with a jar lifter and allow them to sit for 12 to 24 hours.
The lids should not flex up and down when pressed. If they do flex or if you can easily remove the lid, then the jar did not seal properly.
7. Can with pressure canning. You will need a store-bought pressure canner. As with water bath canning, check the jars for nicks and scratches, and heat them in boiling water or the dishwasher. Prepare the food according to your recipe and fill hot jars with the food. Place the jars in the canner and lock it in place. Vent the steam according to the manufacturer’s directions. Process the jars at the recommended pounds pressure stated in your recipe. Adjust for altitude. When done, remove the jars, allow them to sit for 12 to 24 hours and check the seals.

Method 4 Securing Your Home.
1. Choose your shelter type. A standalone shelter is a separate building that is designed to withstand natural disasters or man-made weapons or attacks. An internal shelter is a room within your home that has been designed to protect you from the elements or other hazards. In an economic collapse, power systems may fail and looters and scavengers may threaten your home. Take precautions to protect yourself.
2. Create two sources of electricity. One source could be solar. Hook it up to your home and then run the system discretely underground. The second source might be an underground generator. You will use this in the event of a total loss of power. Keep your energy sources hidden underground to protect them.
3. Choose the size of your shelter. The size of your shelter depends on how many people you need to protect and the size of your food stockpile. An adult needs 10 cups of water and 1,200 calories per day. In addition, each adult needs 10 cubic feet of natural atmosphere to have enough air to breathe, so you will need an air system that lets in and filters fresh air. If you are planning to stay in the shelter long-term, invest now in making it large and comfortable enough for everyone. If it is only going to be a short-term living space, you don’t have to make it as comfortable.
4. Keep the location of your shelter secret. Protect yourself from others who were not prepared and may want to take what you have. Don’t let your neighbors see you creating a shelter. You can choose a remote location, but it may be difficult to access it later. If you choose to make a safe room in your home, create a secret entrance from within your house. This way others will not be alerted to your shelter.
5. Purchase self-defense tools. Self-defense tools are generally non-lethal. They are used to fend off an attack by rendering the attacker ineffective. You can use everyday objects, such as baseball bats or keys. But these may not be as effective as tools designed for your protection.
Mace and pepper spray can be sprayed into an attacker’s face to give you time to get away.
Hand-held stun guns deliver a large electrical shock to stun the attacker.
Taser devices shoot two small probes a distance of up to 15 feet that transmit an electrical charge to the attacker.
Sonic alarms create a loud noise to let others know that you are in trouble.
6. Set up an alarm system in your home. Wireless security systems are easy and inexpensive to install and maintain. Home alert alarm systems notify you if an intruder is approaching your home. Hidden cameras allow you to see internal and exterior areas in your home where an intruder may be present. Phone dialing alarms can be installed inside or outside your home and allow you to contact authorities with the push of a button. Child monitoring alarms notify you if your child goes beyond a certain perimeter of your home.
7. Purchase weapons. Weapons can be used for either self-defense or for hunting. A crossbow is easy to shoot and aim. It’s also quiet, so it doesn’t alert people or animals to your presence. A long-range rifle allows you to hunt game from a distance. A machete can clear brush or fend off a dangerous animal. A slingshot is good for hunting small animals. Have pistols on hand and teach others to shoot, reload, shoot from cover and work as a team for protection. If you plan to have lethal weapons, be sure to train everyone who has access to them in the proper use of these weapons.
Stockpile appropriate ammunition and arrows for your weapons.
8. Gather necessary tools. Having the right tools on hand can make the difference between surviving and not surviving during any kind of disaster. You not only want to be able to protect your home, but you also need to be able to build anything you might need.
Have a bolt-cutter on hand to cut through fences and wire.
Picks, shovels, axes, chain saws and bow saws allow you dig and gather and cut wood.
Rope and paracords are essential for assembling simple and complex survival systems.
Tarps are necessary as ground covers or for weather-proofing, Stock pile nails and plywood for building and repairs.
Keep large trash bags for waste disposal, Have gasoline for fuel or a fire starter, Get a propane stove for cooking, Have a fishing rod for catching fish.

Method 5 Preparing Your Family.
1. Make sure everyone is aware of the situation. In order to prepare for economic collapse, you will have to make sure that your whole family is on board with your preparations. This means informing them in honest terms what is about to happen and telling them what they should be doing. Make sure everyone takes the situation seriously. Otherwise, they will not be mentally prepared in the event that economic collapse actually occurs.
2. Check that each family member is individually prepared. Inform each other family member of the steps you have taken to prepare your finances, essential supplies, food, and shelter. Instruct them on doing the same. Make sure each family member has also packed a bag of essentials that they can grab if they are forced to leave the house without notice. This bag should contain enough survival essentials to last between 72 hours and a week.
3. Train family members in survival skills. Your immediate family members should be aware of how to handle weapons safely, perform basic first aid, hunt or grow food, and maintain your shelter. If they don't already have these skills, take the time to instruct them thoroughly. You never know when you might have to depend on them.
4. Work with another family or group. In addition to your immediate family, consider including other family members, neighbors, or a community group (like a church group) in your preparations. Make sure that these are people who are reliable and will put in work for the benefit of the group. You will be safer and work more efficiently if you can increase the size of your group.

Method 6 Anticipating a Financial Crisis.
1. Monitor the financial markets. Calm markets tend to go up. But if the market gets choppy, meaning prices swing up and down considerably, it will likely decline. Don’t be fooled if he market soars for one day. Big ups and downs in the markets are a red flag signaling an overall decline.
2. Keep an eye on global 10 year bond yields. Global bonds are bonds that are issued in several countries at once by governments or large multi-national companies. When 10 year global bond yields drop, it is in indicator that investors are withdrawing their money to put it in safer investments. This happened before the financial crisis that happened in 2008. A significant drop in 10 year global bond yields means that investors think a financial crisis is coming.
3. Pay attention to oil prices. The fluctuation of oil prices has a macroeconomic impact. When oil prices increase, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) goes up too. The GDP is a quantitative measure of the nation’s total activity. If it is increasing, then the value of goods and services is also going up. If periods of high oil prices signal good times for the world economy, then the opposite is also true. If oil prices are on the decline, expect the GDP and the financial markets to also decline.
4. Understand the relationship between inflation and economic growth. Economic growth tends to lead to inflation. As demand increases, prices are driven up and unemployment falls. As unemployment falls, wages increase. As wages increase, people spend more, which leads to inflation of prices. Conversely, when economic activity slows down, so does inflation. Therefore, if the price of goods and services slows dramatically, it could signal a major downturn in the economy.
5. Monitor the price of commercial commodities. Commercial commodities are goods exchanged during commerce, such as gold, lumber, beef or natural gas. Changes in the prices of commodities affect the United States economy and the value of the U.S. dollar. An increase in commodity prices is correlated with an increase in inflation. Increased inflation correlates with economic growth. However, if commodity prices drop, inflation slows, which indicates economic decline.

Community Q&A.

Question : Where can I join a survival group to prepare for the potential economic collapse?
Answer : Facebook groups are the best place to start. Search for survival groups.
Question : Why would I pay off my debt first? If the economy collapses, my creditors' well being will take a backseat to my family's well being.
Answer : If you owe money to creditors, you would be putting your family at risk during such a time if you failed to keep paying back debts. Creditors are enabled by law to come and claim some of your assets if you have stopped paying them in order to protect your family's well being. In a time like this, assets are everything.
Question : Is an investment in gold and/or silver appropriate? If so, what are your recommendations, and why?
Answer : While gold used to be the standard for currency, it is still very valuable during recessions. Purchasing gold or silver can be a great way to diversify your investments.
Question : If I have a high car payment, and my IRA is large enough to pay off the vehicle, should I close the IRA and pay off the car?
Answer : Sell your expensive car and purchase an older, reliable vehicle with cash. One should never finance an item that depreciates in value, and keep your IRA.
Question : When is the economic collapse expected? In 2018 when bond yields drop?
Answer : No one really knows, but we can predict certain fluctuations (presidential elections or new terms, corporations moving out of the country, major world events, etc.) It's just best to be prepared for it with at minimum a month's supply of essentials.
Question : Should I get out of all stocks if preparing for economic collapse? Should I pay off my mortgage if I have the stock to do so?
Answer : No. Hedge your bets by keeping your portfolio 60% in stock index funds and 40% in bond index funds. I recommend Vanguard because of the low fees. Also, do not pay off your mortgage. You need cash flow. In a collapse, you will have the moral authority to defend your home with violence if necessary.
Question : With a low fixed rate mortgage, should I have my house paid off when the U.S. dollar crashes?
Answer : If you can, hold onto the cash needed to pay off your mortgage. When the dollar crashes, it won't be worth much for buying anything, but the bank still has to take it for your mortgage.
Question : What is the best way to reduce my losses on a savings account if the currency is devalued?
Answer : The best way is to not have a savings account at all. You have more liquidity keeping your money in your checking account. So take that money out of your savings account and open up another checking account with a debit card. Do not use it.
June 02, 2020