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Ray Dalio gives 3 financial recommendations for millennials

By Jacob Wolinsky.
Founder, Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio talks to Julia La Roche in 2018 of Yahoo Finance about the value of savings and investing.

These are Ray Dalio Gives 3 Financial Recommendations For Millennials.
Well I want to talk about my generation the millennials. We were really coming of age during the crisis. So how would you advise us to prepare. And what I mean is what would you tell our generation. We feel scarred from the crisis. First of all I think. One of the problems is that the experience that you had is the last experience is the one that's going to stick in your mind.

And probably will not be the one that's going to get you so that the next experience will be very very different. I know my my parents went through the Great Depression and then they missed out on the boom because they're always thinking about that. And so I think I think that what they need to do is see all of those crisis's. That's why you can see inflationary ones and see all of those and once you get that perspective I would say three things to your generation. OK. Three recommendations. The first recommendation. Is to is to think about your savings and how much money do you have for savings and the best way to think about that is to think how much money do I spend each month. And how much money do I have saved so that I can. How many months are my going to be OK without that and to savings. Right. And calculate it because savings in that is freedom and security. And think about what that is. So that's that's the first one. How much do I have for that.

The second thing is how do I save. Well what should I put my savings in. And when thinking about what you should put your savings in. Realize that the least risky investment that you think from volatility is the least risk investment. It which is cash is the worst investment over a period of time. And you could judge that by judging the rate of inflation in relationship to the after tax income you're going to earn. So if you have an inflation rate that's two or three percent and you're earning 1 percent and you have to pay taxes on that one percent or the 1 or 2 percent that you're going to get. You're going to get taxed essentially at two percent a year. And that's going to be a problem. So you have to move into assets that are other assets that are going to do better over a period of time. And when you do that the most important thing I can convey to you is to diversify well because I can guarantee you that one of those assets and you won't be able to pick the right one will be disastrous in your lifetime that you will lose half of that savings if you're in the wrong one and you won't know what the right one is. And so pick different countries pick different asset classes and I could probably take too long explaining how you might do that. But but. So that would be the second thing to learn from. First thing is think about how to save be cautious about debt when you're thinking about debt. Think about is that debt going to help my savings or is it going to produce an income.

Sometimes debt like buying a house or buying an apartment or buying an asset, it produces forced savings. Forced savings is a good thing. Or if you're taking on debt and you're thinking am I going to have that debt in an asset that asset debt or produce more income than the asset than the cost of your debt. If you're using debt for consumption that's not a good thing to do. OK you're giving up that that safety. So I want. So number one is think about how much you save and think about whether that should be how you borrow. Number two make sure that you think about the diversification of that not in cash. And number three. Do the opposite of what your instincts are. If you're going to play the game. It has to be the opposite of what your instincts in the crowd says because the market reflects the crowd. So you want to buy when no one wants to buy and you want to sell when no one wants to sell. Right. So and that's emotionally difficult and probably not going to play that game well because it takes a lot of resources to play with it. We spend hundreds of millions of dollars each year to try to play that game. Well and it's a tough game to play well. So I would caution you about the market timing game but I would say that if you're going to do it do it in the ways that are uncomfortable because they're opposite your instincts.

That's really good advice right. One more thing that really resonates with me in the book was if in the next downturn the implications could be the impact on pension obligations health care. Is my generation are going to be on the hook for that. Yeah. So we pay a lot of attention to debt. And we should. But pension obligations and healthcare obligations are just like debt.

August 11, 2020

How did Warren Buffett get started in business?

By BRENT RADCLIFFE.
Warren Buffett may have been born with business in his blood. He purchased his first stock when he was 11 years old and worked in his family’s grocery store in Omaha.
His father, Howard Buffett, owned a small brokerage, and Warren would spend his days watching what investors were doing and listening to what they said. As a teenager, he took odd jobs, from washing cars to delivering newspapers, using his savings to purchase several pinball machines that he placed in local businesses.

His entrepreneurial successes as a youth did not immediately translate into a desire to attend college. His father pressed him to continue his education, with Buffett reluctantly agreeing to attend the University of Pennsylvania. He then transferred to the University of Nebraska, where he graduated with a degree in business in three years.

After being rejected by the Harvard Business School, he enrolled in graduate studies at Columbia Business School. While there, he studied under Benjamin Graham – who became a lifelong friend – and David Dodd, both well-known securities analysts. It was through Graham's class in securities analysis that Buffett learned the fundamentals of value investing. He once stated in an interview that Graham's book, The Intelligent Investor, had changed his life and set him on the path of professional analysis to the investment markets. Along with Security Analysis, co-written by Graham and Dodd it provided him the proper intellectual framework and a road map for investing.

Benjamin Graham and The Intelligent Investor.
Graham is often called the "Dean of Wall Street" and the father of value investing, as one of the most important early proponents of financial security analysis. He championed the idea that the investor should look at the market as though it were an actual entity and potential business partner – Graham called this entity "Mr. Market" – that sometimes asks for too much or too little money to be bought out.

It would be difficult to summarize all of Graham's theories in full. At its core, value investing is about identifying stocks that have been undervalued by the majority of stock market participants. He believed that stock prices were frequently wrong due to irrational and excessive price fluctuations (both upside and downside). Intelligent investors, said Graham, need to be firm in their principles and not follow the crowd.
Graham wrote The Intelligent Investor in 1949 as a guide for the common investor. The book championed the idea of buying low-risk securities in a highly diversified, mathematical way. Graham favored fundamental analysis, capitalizing on the difference between a stock's purchase price and its intrinsic value.

Entering the Investment Field.
Before working for Benjamin Graham, Warren had been an investment salesman – a job that he liked doing, except when the stocks he suggested dropped in value and lost money for his clients. To minimize the potential of having irate clients, Warren started a partnership with his close friends and family. The partnership had unique restrictions attached to it. Warren himself would invest only $100 and, through re-invested management fees, would grow his stake in the partnership. Warren would take half of the partnership’s gains over 4% and would repay the partnership a quarter of any loss incurred. Furthermore, money could only be added or withdrawn from the partnership on December 31st, and partners would have no input about the investments in the partnership.

By 1959, Warren had opened a total of seven partnerships and had a 9.5% stake in more than a million dollars of partnership assets. Three years later by the time he was 30, Warren was a millionaire and merged all of his partnerships into a single entity.
It was at this point that Buffett’s sights turned to directly investing in businesses. He made a $1 million investment in a windmill manufacturing company, and the next year in a bottling company. Buffett used the value-investing techniques he learned in school, as well as his knack for understanding the general business environment, to find bargains on the stock market.

Buying Berkshire Hathaway.
In 1962, Warren saw an opportunity to invest in a New England textile company called Berkshire Hathaway and bought some of its stock. Warren began to aggressively buy shares after a dispute with its management convinced him that the company needed a change in leadership..  Ironically, the purchase of Berkshire Hathaway is one of Warren’s major regrets.
Understanding the beauty of owning insurance companies – clients pay premiums today to possibly receive payments decades later – Warren used Berkshire Hathaway as a holding company to buy National Indemnity Company (the first of many insurance companies he would buy) and used its substantial cash flow to finance further acquisitions.

As a value investor, Warren is a sort of jack-of-all-trades when it comes to industry knowledge. Berkshire Hathaway is a great example. Buffett saw a company that was cheap and bought it, regardless of the fact that he wasn’t an expert in textile manufacturing. Gradually, Buffett shifted Berkshire’s focus away from its traditional endeavors, instead using it as a holding company to invest in other businesses. Over the decades, Warren has bought, held and sold companies in a variety of different industries.

Some of Berkshire Hathaway’s most well-known subsidiaries include, but are not limited to, GEICO (yes, that little Gecko belongs to Warren Buffett), Dairy Queen, NetJets, Benjamin Moore & Co., and Fruit of the Loom.  Again, these are only a handful of companies of which Berkshire Hathaway has a majority share.
The company also has interests in many other companies, including American Express Co. (AXP), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), DirectTV (DTV), General Electric Co. (GE), General Motors Co. (GM), Coca-Cola Co. (KO), International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), Proctor & Gamble Co. (PG) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC).

Berkshire Woes and Rewards.
Business for Buffett hasn’t always been rosy, though. In 1975, Buffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, were investigated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for fraud. The two maintained that they had done nothing wrong and that the purchase of Wesco Financial Corporation only looked suspicious because of their complex system of businesses.
Further trouble came with a large investment in Salomon Inc. In 1991, news broke of a trader breaking Treasury bidding rules on multiple occasions, and only through intense negotiations with the Treasury did Buffett manage to stave off a ban on buying Treasury notes and subsequent bankruptcy for the firm.
In more recent years, Buffett has acted as a financier and facilitator of major transactions. During the Great Recession, Warren invested and lent money to companies that were facing financial disaster. Roughly 10 years later, the effects of these transactions are surfacing and they’re enormous.

A loan to Mars Inc. resulted in a $680 million profit.
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), of which Berkshire Hathaway bought almost 120 million shares during the Great Recession, is up more than 7 times from its 2009.
American Express Co. (AXP) is up about five times since Warren’s investment in 200813
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) pays $300 million a year and Berkshire Hathaway has the option to buy additional shares at around $7 each – less than half of what it trades at today.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) paid out $500 million in dividends a year and a $500 million redemption bonus when they repurchased the shares.

Most recently, Warren has partnered up with 3G Capital to merge J.H. Heinz Company and Kraft Foods to create the Kraft Heinz Food Company (KHC). The new company is the third largest food and beverage company in North America and fifth largest in the world, and boasts annual revenues of $28 billion. In 2017, he bought up a significant stake in Pilot Travel Centers, the owners of the Pilot Flying J chain of truck stops. He will become a majority owner over a six-year period.
Modesty and quiet living meant that it took Forbes some time to notice Warren and add him to the list of richest Americans, but when they finally did in 1985, he was already a billionaire. Early investors in Berkshire Hathaway could have bought in as low as $275 a share and by 2014 the stock price had reached $200,000, and was trading just under $300,000 earlier this year.

Comparing Buffett to Graham.
Buffett has referred to himself as "85% Graham." Like his mentor, he has focused on company fundamentals and a "stay the course" approach – an approach that enabled both men to build huge personal nest eggs. Seeking a seeks a strong return on investment (ROI), Buffett typically looks for stocks that are valued accurately and offer robust returns for investors.
However, Buffett invests using a more qualitative and concentrated approach than Graham did. Graham preferred to find undervalued, average companies and diversify his holdings among them; Buffett favors quality businesses that already have reasonable valuations (though their stock should still be worth something more) and the ability for large growth.

Other differences lie in how to set intrinsic value, when to take a chance and how deeply to dive into a company that has potential. Graham relied on quantitative methods to a far greater extent than Buffett, who spends his time actually visiting companies, talking with management and understanding the corporate's particular business model. As a result, Graham was more able to and more comfortable investing in lots of smaller companies than Buffett. Consider a baseball analogy: Graham was concerned about swinging at good pitches and getting on base; Buffett prefers to wait for pitches that allow him to score a home run. Many have credited Buffett with having a natural gift for timing that cannot be replicated, whereas Graham's method is friendlier to the average investor.

Buffett Fun Facts.
Buffett only began making large-scale charitable donations at age 75.
Buffett has made some interesting observations about income taxes. Specifically, he's questioned why his effective capital gains tax rate of around 20% is a lower income tax rate than that of his secretary – or for that matter, than that paid by most middle-class hourly or salaried workers. As one of the two or three richest men in the world, having long ago established a mass of wealth that virtually no amount of future taxation can seriously dent, Mr. Buffett offers his opinion from a state of relative financial security that is pretty much without parallel. Even if, for example, every future dollar Warren Buffett earns is taxed at the rate of 99%, it is doubtful that it would affect his standard of living.

Buffett has described The Intelligent Investor as the best book on investing that he has ever read, with Security Analysis a close second. Other favorite reading matter includes:
Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits by Philip A. Fisher, which advises potential investors to not only examine a company's financial statements but to evaluate its management. Fisher focuses on investing in innovative companies, and Buffett has long held him in high regard.
The Outsiders by William N. Thorndike profiles eight CEOs and their blueprints for success. Among the profiled is Thomas Murphy, friend to Warren Buffett and director for Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett has praised Murphy, calling him "overall the best business manager I've ever met."
Stress Test by former Secretary of the Treasury, Timothy F. Geithner, chronicles the financial crisis of 2008-9 from a gritty, first-person perspective. Buffett has called it a must-read for managers, a textbook for how to stay level under unimaginable pressure.
Business Adventures: Twelve Classic Tales from the World of Wall Street by John Brooks is a collection of articles published in The New Yorker in the 1960s. Each tackles famous failures in the business world, depicting them as cautionary tales. Buffett lent his copy of it to Bill Gates, who reportedly has yet to return it.

The Bottom Line.
Warren Buffett’s investments haven't always been successful, but they were well-thought-out and followed value principles. By keeping an eye out for new opportunities and sticking to a consistent strategy, Buffett and the textile company he acquired long ago are considered by many to be one of the most successful investing stories of all time. But you don't have to be a genius "to invest successfully over a lifetime," the man himself claims. "What's needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework."

August 04, 2020


How Bitcoin Disrupts the Finance Industry .

Cryptocurrencies and their underlying blockchain technology are being touted as the next-big-thing after the creation of the internet. One area where these technologies are likely to have a major impact is the financial sector. The blockchain, as a form of distributed ledger technology (DLT), has the potential to transform well-established financial institutions and bring lower costs, faster execution of transactions, improved transparency, auditability of operations, and other benefits. Cryptocurrencies hold the promise of a new native digital asset class without a central authority.

So what do these technological developments mean for the various players in the sector and end users? “Blockchains have the potential to displace any business activity built on transactions occurring on traditional corporate databases, which is what underlies nearly every financial service function. Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications. DLT is therefore both a great opportunity and also a disruptive threat,” according to Bruce Weber, dean of Lerner College and business administration professor, and Andrew Novocin, professor of electrical and computer engineering, both at the University of Delaware.

Earlier this year, Weber, Novocin, and graduate student Jonathan Wood conducted a literature review on cryptocurrencies and DLT for the SWIFT Institute. Based on this review, the SWIFT institute recently issued a grant to conduct new research on DLT and cryptocurrencies in the financial sector. Weber and Novocin noted that just as disruptors like Amazon, Google, Facebook and Uber built software platforms and thriving businesses thanks to the connectivity provided by internet standards, next-generation startups will build new services and businesses with blockchains. “Many pundits expect blockchain, as a distributed technology, to become the foundation for new services and applications that have completely different rules from those running on hierarchical and controlled databases. Cryptocurrencies are an early example but many others will follow,” they added.

Kartik Hosanagar, a Wharton professor of marketing and operations, information and decisions, pointed out that the financial services sector is full of intermediaries such as banks that help create trust among transacting parties like lenders and borrowers. Blockchain, he said, is a mechanism to create trust without centralized control. “The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies, Hosanagar pointed out that most of the value today is tied to speculative buying rather than actual use cases. But having a currency without a central authority offers “certain unique kinds of protections especially in countries with troubled central banks.” For example, Venezuela’s currency is rapidly losing value. For people who stored their savings in crypto, there was greater protection against such rapid currency devaluations. “Of course, cryptocurrencies have their own instabilities, but they aren’t tied to actions by central banks and that’s particularly relevant in countries and economies where citizens don’t trust their governments and central banks,” he said.

“Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications.”–Bruce Weber and Andrew Novocin

Hosanagar expects the first wave of applications to be rolled out in “private” blockchains where a central authority such as a financial institution and its partners are the only ones with the permission to participate (as opposed to public, permissionless blockchains where participants are anonymous and there is no central authority). Applications in the private blockchains, he said, will be more secure and will offer some of the benefits of decentralized ledgers but will not be radically different from the way things work at present. However, over time, he expects smart contracts (self-executing contracts when requirements are met) to be offered on public blockchain networks like Ethereum. “When securities are traded, intermediaries provide trust, and they charge commissions. Blockchains can help provide such trust in a low-cost manner. But trade of securities is governed by securities laws. Smart contracts offer a way to ensure compliance with the laws. They have great potential because of their ability to reduce costs while being compliant,” says Hosanagar.

According to Weber and Novocin, one area ripe for transformation is reaching consensus on important benchmark rates and prices. At present, they point out, different proprietary indexes are used to determine interest rates and the price of many mainstream assets. Blockchain can transform this. “Think of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and the recent scandals involving manipulation of benchmark values when they are controlled by a single entity that may not be capable of detecting false or fraudulent data. Blockchain could provide greater transparency around the process of creating agreed upon reference prices, and allow more people to participate in the consensus process.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in some areas intermediaries will find their roles reduced as blockchain allows for automation through greater transparency and traceability. In other areas, intermediaries will find themselves well-placed to take advantage of changing needs of their clients, as firms will need help to manage the shift to new standards as well as the greater complexity of open and traceable blockchain infrastructure. Intermediaries in areas that could potentially be disrupted, they said, “should get involved with projects seeking to set the standards, so that they can stay informed and position themselves to profit from becoming the leaders in the operations of the new markets that will emerge.”

Kevin Werbach, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, and author of a forthcoming book The Blockchain and the New Architecture of Trust,  said that it’s usually not helpful to focus on what aspects of a major existing market will be “transformed” or “disrupted” by new technologies. Important technologies, he said, are far more likely to be integrated into the system than replace it. According to Werbach, while some firms will fail to make the transition and some new ones will take hold, “over the long-run, virtually every historic innovation that eliminated some forms of intermediation also created new forms.”

Blockchain will reduce the massive duplication of information that creates delays, conflicts and confusion in many aspects of financial services, Werbach added. For example, when a syndicate of lenders participates in a loan, having one shared ledger means they don’t all need to keep track of it independently. International payments and corporate stock records are other examples where there are huge inefficiencies due to duplicate record-keeping and intermediaries. “End users won’t see the changes in the deep plumbing of financial services, but it will allow new service providers to emerge and new products to be offered,” said Werbach.

Bumps Along the Way

Angela Walch, professor of law at St. Mary’s University School of Law and a research fellow at the Centre for Blockchain Technologies at University College London, offered another perspective. She said there is a lot of excitement about blockchain as a distributed ledger technology for the financial sector because many believe that it offers a better, more efficient and more resilient form of recordkeeping. However, making use of the blockchain is not as simple as just buying new software and running it. “Blockchain technology is, at core, group recordkeeping. To reap its full benefits, one needs all the relevant members of the group to join the system. This requires collaboration with and across businesses, which is a potentially big hurdle, and may be the hurdle that most limits adoption.”

Governance is the biggest challenge in decentralized organizations, said Weber and Novocin. Members participating in a blockchain-supported financial function may have misaligned incentives, and can end up in gridlock, or with a chaotic outcome. They cite the example of the ‘DAO Hack,’ which was the first prominent smart contract project on the Ethereum network to suffer a large loss of funds. The Ethereum community voted to conduct a hard fork (a radical change to the protocol that makes previously invalid blocks/transactions valid or vice-versa) — reversing the transactions after the hack and essentially refunding the DAO investors. This was in effect a breach of Ethereum’s immutability and it left a sizeable minority of the community bitterly dissatisfied. This group viewed the Ethereum community as forsaking its commitment to immutable, permanent records. They refused to acknowledge the hard fork, and maintained the original Ethereum blockchain, now known as Ethereum Classic (whereas the forked version supported by the Ethereum Foundation is simply Ethereum).

“The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”–Kartik Hosanagar

“Distributed organizations serving an open community need to take care to design their governance systems, incentive structures and decision-making processes to create consensus without unduly slowing down the decision-making,” said Weber and Novocin. “Scenario planning or war gaming are worth exploring at the beginning of blockchain projects. Forward planning enables organizations to swiftly respond in a predictable way that is supportive of stakeholders. Publicizing these plans in advance can also build trust and user confidence.”

Cryptocurrency Risks.

Werbach listed a variety of risks and vulnerabilities related to cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin has shown that the fundamental security of its proof-of-work system is sound, but it has major limitations such as limited scalability, massive energy usage and concentration of mining pools. There has been massive theft of cryptocurrencies from the centralized intermediaries that most people use to hold it, and massive fraud by promoters of initial coin offerings and other schemes. Manipulation is widespread on lightly-regulated cryptocurrency exchanges.

For example, roughly half of Bitcoin transactions are with Tether, a “stablecoin” that claims to be backed by U.S. dollars but has never been audited and is involved in highly suspicious behavior. Money laundering and other criminal activity is a serious problem if transactions do not require some check of real-world identities. “There are major efforts to address all of these risks and vulnerabilities. Some are technical, some are business opportunities, and some are regulatory questions. There must be recognition among cryptocurrency proponents that maturation of the industry will require cooperation in many cases with incumbents and regulators,” added Werbach.

Hosanagar cautions that while decentralization offers significant value — and a significant number of miners/validators must verify the transaction for it to be validated — it is still susceptible to collusion. If one or a few companies running lots of miners/validators in a small network collude, they can affect the sanctity of the network. The big risk with cryptocurrencies, he added, is that most activity as of today is ultimately tied to speculation. It’s important for cryptocurrencies to discover a “killer app soon so there is some underlying value created beyond speculation of its future value,” Hosanagar concludes.

The Way Ahead?

Given all these challenges, what is the current mindset in the financial sector towards adopting these new technologies? And, importantly, should one push for wide acceptance and deployment, or is there need for them to stabilize first?

According to Werbach, “It’s not an either-or” choice. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in general, he noted, are immature currently. However, there are some areas where they are already able to be deployed effectively. The best way to work through today’s problems, is “to build working systems and see where difficulties arise,” Werbach said. Looking ahead, integration with law, regulation and governance will be critical. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies represent a new form of trust, he added. They will only succeed if they become sufficiently trustworthy, beyond the basic security of the distributed ledgers. “Law, regulation and governance are three major mechanisms to produce trustworthy systems that scale up to society-wide adoption. We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables. I’m optimistic about that process over time.”

“We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables.”–Kevin Werbach

Walch noted that while there are claims that some consortia are putting ‘blockchain’ systems into production, in many cases it appears that what they are calling a blockchain bears little to no resemblance to the original blockchain technology behind Bitcoin. In many instances, she said, existing shared databases are being called ‘blockchain’ for marketing purposes. “If people do use something they call DLT or blockchain technology in important financial systems, my hope is that they make the decision based on actual capabilities of the tech rather than its widely hyped and generally overstated capabilities,” Walch said. “Permissioned blockchains, which are the variation most likely to be used for financial systems recordkeeping, are very different from public blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum. I hope that a more modest and accurate understanding of the actual characteristics of permissioned blockchains sinks in before they are widely adopted.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies or cryptoassets, Walch said that the financial sector’s interest is “less about recordkeeping and more about a new financial asset that it can make money off of.” She pointed out that at present there is no clarity on how power and accountability work in these systems. The ongoing operation of crypto systems and the value they embed and support is reliant on the competence of, and ethical behavior by, unaccountable software developers and validators. “The financial sector believes it understands and can manage the risks of cryptoassets, but I am less certain and worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class. This has been a bad mixture in the past,” says Walch. “I think it would be more responsible to let cryptosystems exist on their own for a while longer to let more of the kinks get worked out — if they can be; I’m not sure the governance ones can — rather than to rapidly integrate them into the financial system as we seem to be doing.”

“I … worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class.”–Angela Walch

Conversely, Weber and Novocin feel that the financial industry is cautious about the new DLT technology. According to them, to build confidence in new blockchain systems there needs to be transparency around how the processes work and what the benefits are, and in order to secure adoption, they need to be straightforward to use. “Pundits have drawn parallels to the open source Linux operating system. Although only a few individuals use Linux directly, it quietly runs the vast majority of servers and cloud processors across the world. Similarly, early adoption of blockchain will likely happen in the background of business processes. Companies should get involved now, even if it is just to experiment with the concepts. By gaining familiarity with these new tools, they will be ready as the space continues to develop.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in the next few years, many more businesses will implement private blockchains to improve the transparency and traceability of their financial operations, supply chains, inventory management systems and other internal business systems. Clearer standards will be adopted and a few high-profile projects will emerge. Meanwhile, they said, R&D will continue among the many decentralized blockchain projects to invent more scalable public ledgers whether it be blockchain, Tangle, Hashgraph or something new. “Work is needed on better and more efficient consensus models, whether it be a new form of proof-of-stake or proof-of-work, or something else. There are many established groups, startups, companies and research teams that organizations can join, partner with, or support in order to contribute to research and expand their capabilities.”




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July 16, 2020


How the Blockchain Will Impact the Financial Sector.

Cryptocurrencies and their underlying blockchain technology are being touted as the next-big-thing after the creation of the internet. One area where these technologies are likely to have a major impact is the financial sector. The blockchain, as a form of distributed ledger technology (DLT), has the potential to transform well-established financial institutions and bring lower costs, faster execution of transactions, improved transparency, auditability of operations, and other benefits. Cryptocurrencies hold the promise of a new native digital asset class without a central authority.

So what do these technological developments mean for the various players in the sector and end users? “Blockchains have the potential to displace any business activity built on transactions occurring on traditional corporate databases, which is what underlies nearly every financial service function. Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications. DLT is therefore both a great opportunity and also a disruptive threat,” according to Bruce Weber, dean of Lerner College and business administration professor, and Andrew Novocin, professor of electrical and computer engineering, both at the University of Delaware.

Earlier this year, Weber, Novocin, and graduate student Jonathan Wood conducted a literature review on cryptocurrencies and DLT for the SWIFT Institute. Based on this review, the SWIFT institute recently issued a grant to conduct new research on DLT and cryptocurrencies in the financial sector. Weber and Novocin noted that just as disruptors like Amazon, Google, Facebook and Uber built software platforms and thriving businesses thanks to the connectivity provided by internet standards, next-generation startups will build new services and businesses with blockchains. “Many pundits expect blockchain, as a distributed technology, to become the foundation for new services and applications that have completely different rules from those running on hierarchical and controlled databases. Cryptocurrencies are an early example but many others will follow,” they added.

Kartik Hosanagar, a Wharton professor of marketing and operations, information and decisions, pointed out that the financial services sector is full of intermediaries such as banks that help create trust among transacting parties like lenders and borrowers. Blockchain, he said, is a mechanism to create trust without centralized control. “The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies, Hosanagar pointed out that most of the value today is tied to speculative buying rather than actual use cases. But having a currency without a central authority offers “certain unique kinds of protections especially in countries with troubled central banks.” For example, Venezuela’s currency is rapidly losing value. For people who stored their savings in crypto, there was greater protection against such rapid currency devaluations. “Of course, cryptocurrencies have their own instabilities, but they aren’t tied to actions by central banks and that’s particularly relevant in countries and economies where citizens don’t trust their governments and central banks,” he said.

“Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications.”–Bruce Weber and Andrew Novocin

Hosanagar expects the first wave of applications to be rolled out in “private” blockchains where a central authority such as a financial institution and its partners are the only ones with the permission to participate (as opposed to public, permissionless blockchains where participants are anonymous and there is no central authority). Applications in the private blockchains, he said, will be more secure and will offer some of the benefits of decentralized ledgers but will not be radically different from the way things work at present. However, over time, he expects smart contracts (self-executing contracts when requirements are met) to be offered on public blockchain networks like Ethereum. “When securities are traded, intermediaries provide trust, and they charge commissions. Blockchains can help provide such trust in a low-cost manner. But trade of securities is governed by securities laws. Smart contracts offer a way to ensure compliance with the laws. They have great potential because of their ability to reduce costs while being compliant,” says Hosanagar.

According to Weber and Novocin, one area ripe for transformation is reaching consensus on important benchmark rates and prices. At present, they point out, different proprietary indexes are used to determine interest rates and the price of many mainstream assets. Blockchain can transform this. “Think of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and the recent scandals involving manipulation of benchmark values when they are controlled by a single entity that may not be capable of detecting false or fraudulent data. Blockchain could provide greater transparency around the process of creating agreed upon reference prices, and allow more people to participate in the consensus process.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in some areas intermediaries will find their roles reduced as blockchain allows for automation through greater transparency and traceability. In other areas, intermediaries will find themselves well-placed to take advantage of changing needs of their clients, as firms will need help to manage the shift to new standards as well as the greater complexity of open and traceable blockchain infrastructure. Intermediaries in areas that could potentially be disrupted, they said, “should get involved with projects seeking to set the standards, so that they can stay informed and position themselves to profit from becoming the leaders in the operations of the new markets that will emerge.”

Kevin Werbach, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, and author of a forthcoming book The Blockchain and the New Architecture of Trust,  said that it’s usually not helpful to focus on what aspects of a major existing market will be “transformed” or “disrupted” by new technologies. Important technologies, he said, are far more likely to be integrated into the system than replace it. According to Werbach, while some firms will fail to make the transition and some new ones will take hold, “over the long-run, virtually every historic innovation that eliminated some forms of intermediation also created new forms.”


Blockchain will reduce the massive duplication of information that creates delays, conflicts and confusion in many aspects of financial services, Werbach added. For example, when a syndicate of lenders participates in a loan, having one shared ledger means they don’t all need to keep track of it independently. International payments and corporate stock records are other examples where there are huge inefficiencies due to duplicate record-keeping and intermediaries. “End users won’t see the changes in the deep plumbing of financial services, but it will allow new service providers to emerge and new products to be offered,” said Werbach.

Bumps Along the Way

Angela Walch, professor of law at St. Mary’s University School of Law and a research fellow at the Centre for Blockchain Technologies at University College London, offered another perspective. She said there is a lot of excitement about blockchain as a distributed ledger technology for the financial sector because many believe that it offers a better, more efficient and more resilient form of recordkeeping. However, making use of the blockchain is not as simple as just buying new software and running it. “Blockchain technology is, at core, group recordkeeping. To reap its full benefits, one needs all the relevant members of the group to join the system. This requires collaboration with and across businesses, which is a potentially big hurdle, and may be the hurdle that most limits adoption.”

Governance is the biggest challenge in decentralized organizations, said Weber and Novocin. Members participating in a blockchain-supported financial function may have misaligned incentives, and can end up in gridlock, or with a chaotic outcome. They cite the example of the ‘DAO Hack,’ which was the first prominent smart contract project on the Ethereum network to suffer a large loss of funds. The Ethereum community voted to conduct a hard fork (a radical change to the protocol that makes previously invalid blocks/transactions valid or vice-versa) — reversing the transactions after the hack and essentially refunding the DAO investors. This was in effect a breach of Ethereum’s immutability and it left a sizeable minority of the community bitterly dissatisfied. This group viewed the Ethereum community as forsaking its commitment to immutable, permanent records. They refused to acknowledge the hard fork, and maintained the original Ethereum blockchain, now known as Ethereum Classic (whereas the forked version supported by the Ethereum Foundation is simply Ethereum).

“The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”–Kartik Hosanagar

“Distributed organizations serving an open community need to take care to design their governance systems, incentive structures and decision-making processes to create consensus without unduly slowing down the decision-making,” said Weber and Novocin. “Scenario planning or war gaming are worth exploring at the beginning of blockchain projects. Forward planning enables organizations to swiftly respond in a predictable way that is supportive of stakeholders. Publicizing these plans in advance can also build trust and user confidence.”

Cryptocurrency Risks.

Werbach listed a variety of risks and vulnerabilities related to cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin has shown that the fundamental security of its proof-of-work system is sound, but it has major limitations such as limited scalability, massive energy usage and concentration of mining pools. There has been massive theft of cryptocurrencies from the centralized intermediaries that most people use to hold it, and massive fraud by promoters of initial coin offerings and other schemes. Manipulation is widespread on lightly-regulated cryptocurrency exchanges.

For example, roughly half of Bitcoin transactions are with Tether, a “stablecoin” that claims to be backed by U.S. dollars but has never been audited and is involved in highly suspicious behavior. Money laundering and other criminal activity is a serious problem if transactions do not require some check of real-world identities. “There are major efforts to address all of these risks and vulnerabilities. Some are technical, some are business opportunities, and some are regulatory questions. There must be recognition among cryptocurrency proponents that maturation of the industry will require cooperation in many cases with incumbents and regulators,” added Werbach.

Hosanagar cautions that while decentralization offers significant value — and a significant number of miners/validators must verify the transaction for it to be validated — it is still susceptible to collusion. If one or a few companies running lots of miners/validators in a small network collude, they can affect the sanctity of the network. The big risk with cryptocurrencies, he added, is that most activity as of today is ultimately tied to speculation. It’s important for cryptocurrencies to discover a “killer app soon so there is some underlying value created beyond speculation of its future value,” Hosanagar concludes.

The Way Ahead?

Given all these challenges, what is the current mindset in the financial sector towards adopting these new technologies? And, importantly, should one push for wide acceptance and deployment, or is there need for them to stabilize first?

According to Werbach, “It’s not an either-or” choice. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in general, he noted, are immature currently. However, there are some areas where they are already able to be deployed effectively. The best way to work through today’s problems, is “to build working systems and see where difficulties arise,” Werbach said. Looking ahead, integration with law, regulation and governance will be critical. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies represent a new form of trust, he added. They will only succeed if they become sufficiently trustworthy, beyond the basic security of the distributed ledgers. “Law, regulation and governance are three major mechanisms to produce trustworthy systems that scale up to society-wide adoption. We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables. I’m optimistic about that process over time.”

“We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables.”–Kevin Werbach

Walch noted that while there are claims that some consortia are putting ‘blockchain’ systems into production, in many cases it appears that what they are calling a blockchain bears little to no resemblance to the original blockchain technology behind Bitcoin. In many instances, she said, existing shared databases are being called ‘blockchain’ for marketing purposes. “If people do use something they call DLT or blockchain technology in important financial systems, my hope is that they make the decision based on actual capabilities of the tech rather than its widely hyped and generally overstated capabilities,” Walch said. “Permissioned blockchains, which are the variation most likely to be used for financial systems recordkeeping, are very different from public blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum. I hope that a more modest and accurate understanding of the actual characteristics of permissioned blockchains sinks in before they are widely adopted.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies or cryptoassets, Walch said that the financial sector’s interest is “less about recordkeeping and more about a new financial asset that it can make money off of.” She pointed out that at present there is no clarity on how power and accountability work in these systems. The ongoing operation of crypto systems and the value they embed and support is reliant on the competence of, and ethical behavior by, unaccountable software developers and validators. “The financial sector believes it understands and can manage the risks of cryptoassets, but I am less certain and worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class. This has been a bad mixture in the past,” says Walch. “I think it would be more responsible to let cryptosystems exist on their own for a while longer to let more of the kinks get worked out — if they can be; I’m not sure the governance ones can — rather than to rapidly integrate them into the financial system as we seem to be doing.”

“I … worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class.”–Angela Walch

Conversely, Weber and Novocin feel that the financial industry is cautious about the new DLT technology. According to them, to build confidence in new blockchain systems there needs to be transparency around how the processes work and what the benefits are, and in order to secure adoption, they need to be straightforward to use. “Pundits have drawn parallels to the open source Linux operating system. Although only a few individuals use Linux directly, it quietly runs the vast majority of servers and cloud processors across the world. Similarly, early adoption of blockchain will likely happen in the background of business processes. Companies should get involved now, even if it is just to experiment with the concepts. By gaining familiarity with these new tools, they will be ready as the space continues to develop.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in the next few years, many more businesses will implement private blockchains to improve the transparency and traceability of their financial operations, supply chains, inventory management systems and other internal business systems. Clearer standards will be adopted and a few high-profile projects will emerge. Meanwhile, they said, R&D will continue among the many decentralized blockchain projects to invent more scalable public ledgers whether it be blockchain, Tangle, Hashgraph or something new. “Work is needed on better and more efficient consensus models, whether it be a new form of proof-of-stake or proof-of-work, or something else. There are many established groups, startups, companies and research teams that organizations can join, partner with, or support in order to contribute to research and expand their capabilities.”




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July 16, 2020

How to Prepare for Economic Collapse.


An economic collapse means a breakdown of the national economy. It would be characterized by a long-term downturn in economic activity, increased poverty and a disruption of the social order, including protests, riots and possibly violence. In some cases, this collapse would be akin to a deep recession, with society still functioning basically as normal (just with more poverty). However, it could be much worse. You should prepare for the worst, but adjust your actions to the actual severity of the collapse. You can prepare for an economic collapse by preparing financially, stocking up on the essentials, and monitoring the economic indicators.

Method 1 Preparing Your Finances.
1. Start an emergency fund. If you are living paycheck to paycheck and you lose your job during an economic collapse, you are at risk for losing your home and living in poverty. It won’t be easy to find another job and replace your income. Your goal should be to save up enough to cover six months of expenses in your emergency fund.
If you are trying to get out of debt, save up an emergency fund of $1,000 and then apply all of your extra income to your debt. Once your debt is paid off, you can divert more money into your emergency fund.
Keep your emergency fund separate from your checking account so that you are not tempted to use the money. Put it in a low-risk, interest-bearing account such as a savings account, money market account or certificate of deposit (CD).
On the other hand, a complete economic collapse would leave you unable to access your bank account, because of the crash of the financial system. Additionally, your money may become useless or extremely devalued. Consider stocking other commodities that you could barter with in an economic collapse, like alcohol, precious metals (gold and silver), and fuel.
2. Have cash on hand. Depending on where you have it, money in your emergency fund might be hard to liquidate. Bonds, for example, must be sold, and other investments like CD’s might charge fees for early withdrawal. Also, if you have a savings account with an online bank instead of a brick-and-mortar institution, it might take several days to withdraw your money. It’s important to have cash that you can access easily, either from a savings account or a cash box in your home. This can tide you over in an emergency until you can access money in your emergency fund.
3. Generate an additional source of income. Start a home business as a second source of income. If you lose your job because of an economic collapse, it might be difficult or even impossible to find another job. Having an alternative source of income can help you to keep your home and avoid poverty. Choose your business idea based on skills that you have and things that you enjoy doing. In addition, think about how likely it will be that people will require these services in an economic collapse; people may need basic necessities like clean water or food more than they need an interior decorator.
Provide services to people in their homes, such as house cleaning, home organization, meal preparation, or interior decorating.
Sell goods you produce, such as baked goods, custom clothing or jewelry.
4. Get out of debt. In a financial collapse, many people are going to lose their jobs and their homes. To prepare for this possibility, you should make a plan to get out of debt as quickly as possible. This way, if you do lose your job, you don’t have to worry about finding a way to pay these bills. The worst kind of debt to have is credit card debt. Because of the high interest rates that many people have, carrying a balance on a credit card can cost you a great deal of money.
Create a budget in order to track your income and expenses. Make a plan to have a surplus of money left over at the end of the month to apply towards your debt. This means reducing your expenses and possibly finding additional work to supplement your income.
Organize your debt so you can make a plan to pay it off. You can choose from a few different methods for planning how to pay off your debt. Whichever method you choose, it is important to stick with it.
One method is to order your debts from smallest to biggest, regardless of the interest rate, and pay off the smallest debts first. This helps you build momentum.
Another method is laddering, which means paying off the debt with the highest interest rates first. This makes the most sense mathematically because it reduces the amount of interest expense you pay in the long-term.
That said, in a true economic collapse, your creditors would likely have other things to worry about than just finding you and recovering your debts. Additionally, currency may be greatly devalued or completely useless, meaning that the amount stated on your debt balance would be equally depressed or meaningless.

Method 2 Storing the Essentials.
1. Store emergency water. In the event of an economic collapse, it is possible that your power and water supply might be interrupted, or that you will not be able to pay for these things. You will need a supply of clean water for drinking, cooking and hygiene. You can purchase bottles of water or store water in your own containers. If you run out of water, you can take steps to sanitize contaminated water.
Store at least one gallon of water per person for a minimum of three days or for up to two weeks. Don’t forget to include pets in this equation.
If you are storing water in your own containers, wash them first with dish soap and water and sanitize them with a solution of 1 teaspoon of liquid chlorine bleach to a quart of water.
To make water safe, you can boil it and filter it through a clean cloth, paper towel or coffee filter.
2. Stockpile food. The kind of food you store up for an emergency is different from the groceries you purchase each week. You need to get food that is non-perishable, does not have to be refrigerated and will provide you with the nutrition you need to survive. It may be very different from the food you are used to eating, but you will be glad you have it if you ever need it.
Purchase food that does not have to be refrigerated or frozen so you don’t have to worry about power outages. These foods include canned goods, peanut butter and beef or turkey jerky.
Include foods highly nutritious foods that are easy to store, such as dried foods, nuts, beans, canned meat and vegetables and powdered milk.
For comfort foods, avoid snack foods that will quickly expire. Instead, stock up on spaghetti and spaghetti sauce, soups, sugar and honey for canning and baking, dried fruit, coffee and tea and hard candy.
If necessary, stock pile baby food and formula, Don’t forget to include pet food if you have pets.
Keep a manual can opener with your stockpile.
3. Start a garden. A garden allows you to continually have fresh, nutritious food to supplement your emergency food supply. Also, in an economic crisis the cost of living might skyrocket. Having a garden will help you to save money on your grocery bills. It will also allow you to be self-sufficient should a food shortage result from the financial collapse.
If you don’t have a lot of space, consider starting a container garden.
If you don’t have good soil, purchase humus soil or top soil. Add peat moss, composted manure and plant fertilizers.
Choose vegetables and herbs that are easy to grow, including beans and peas, carrots, greens like lettuce, cabbage, spinach and kale, potatoes and sweet potatoes, squash, tomatoes, broccoli, berries and melons.
4. Create an emergency kit. This is a collection of household items you might need in an emergency. In the event of an economic collapse, you may not be able to shop for these supplies, so it’s important to have them on hand. Keep your supplies in a container that’s easy to carry in case you have to evacuate for some reason.
Include an extra set of car keys, blankets, matches, a multi-use tool, maps of the area, a flashlight, a battery-powered or hand-cranked radio, extra batteries, matches and a cell phone and chargers.
Have some household liquid bleach on hand for disinfecting.
Make copies of all important documents, such as proof of address, deed/lease to home, passports, birth certificates and insurance policies.
Have a list of family and emergency contact numbers, Include baby supplies such as baby food, formula, diapers and bottles.
Remember pet supplies like food, collars, leashes and food bowls.
5. Gather first aid and medical supplies. You can purchase a first aid kit or put one together yourself. Either way, make sure it has all of the necessary supplies. Include personal items such as medications for yourself and members of your family. Check the kit regularly to make sure nobody has used any of the supplies. Also, check the expiration dates and replace expired items.
Keep a first aid manual with your first aid kit.
Include dressings and bandages, such as adhesive bandages in various sizes, sterile gauze pads and a gauze roll, adhesive tape, elastic bandages and sterile cotton balls.
Add equipment and other supplies, like latex or non-latex gloves, instant cold packs, a thermometer, safety pins to fasten splints or bandages, tweezers, scissors and hand sanitizer.
Have medicines for cuts and injuries, such as antiseptic solution like hydrogen peroxide, antibiotic ointment, calamine lotion for stings or poison ivy, hydrocortisone cream for itching and an eyewash solution.
Include contact lens solution if necessary.
Other medicines to have include pain and fever medicines like aspirin, acetaminophen or ibuprofen, antihistamines for allergies, decongestants for colds, anti-nausea medicine, anti-diarrhea medicine, antacids and laxatives.

Method 3 Preserving Food.
1. Preserve meat and fish. In an economic collapse, food stores could become dangerously low. If you are going to stock up on meat and fish ahead of time, you will need to know how to cure it. This will allow it stay fresh and edible much longer. Also, it can be stored at room temperature. This will be helpful in the event of a power outage.
2. Salt cure meat. Salt curing means using salt to kill the microbes that would spoil it. For every 100 pounds of meat, you need 8 pounds of salt, 2 ounces of saltpeter and 3 pounds of sugar. Apply the cure mixture directly to the meat. For bacon, allow the meat to cure for 7 days per inch of thickness. For ham, leave the mixture on for a day and a half per pound. After curing, rub off the salt under running water and allow it to dry.
If the outdoor temperature is expected to rise above 40 degrees Fahrenheit, you will need to allow the meat to cure in a meat locker.
If the outdoor temperature is below freezing, allow an extra day for curing.
3. Smoke cure meat. Wood smoking meat not only adds flavor, but it also protects your meat from pests and spoilage. Cold smoking smokes the meat without cooking it. Hang the meat in a smoke house, light the fire and allow the meat to smoke for 10 to 20 hours. You can purchase a ready-made smoke house or plans to build your own.
Use aromatic woods to add flavor, such as hickory, mesquite, apple, cherry, pear or cranberry-apple.
Woods to avoid include all conifers, crape myrtle, hackberry, sycamore and holly.
4. Jerky meat. To make meat jerky, you can use a store-bought dehydrator. However, if you do not have one of those, you can do it in your oven by cooking it at a low temperature for several hours. Choose an inexpensive cut of meat, such as brisket. Trim the fat and slice thin strips against the grain. Season the meat with salt and pepper, and if desired, marinate it overnight with diluted barbecue sauce. Arrange the slices on a cooking grate, and put them in the oven at 170 degrees Fahrenheit for two to six hours.
Line your oven with foil for easy cleanup, Prop the oven door open with a wooden spoon to allow air to circulate.
Partially freeze meat before slicing to make it easier to slice.
5. Can fruits and vegetables. Canning involves heating food in a glass jar to remove the air and prevent spoilage. Choose from two methods to can food: water bath and pressure canning. The method you choose depends on the kind of food you want to can. Water bath canning is for jams, jellies and for acidic foods such as tomatoes, berries or cucumbers in vinegar. For main meal foods such as meat, beans and other vegetables, use pressure canning. To ensure safety, always use tried and true recipes.
6. Can with the water bath method. Gather a deep pot with a lid, a rack that fits into the pot, glass preserving jars, lids and bands and a jar lifter. Check the jars and lids for nicks and scratches which would prevent proper canning and allow spoilage to occur. Heat the jars in a pot of boiling water or in the dishwasher. Prepare your recipe and fill the hot jars with the food. Place the lids on the jars and immerse them in boiling water. Make sure the water covers the jars by 1 to 2 inches. Leave them in the water for the amount of time stated in the recipe. Remove the jars with a jar lifter and allow them to sit for 12 to 24 hours.
The lids should not flex up and down when pressed. If they do flex or if you can easily remove the lid, then the jar did not seal properly.
7. Can with pressure canning. You will need a store-bought pressure canner. As with water bath canning, check the jars for nicks and scratches, and heat them in boiling water or the dishwasher. Prepare the food according to your recipe and fill hot jars with the food. Place the jars in the canner and lock it in place. Vent the steam according to the manufacturer’s directions. Process the jars at the recommended pounds pressure stated in your recipe. Adjust for altitude. When done, remove the jars, allow them to sit for 12 to 24 hours and check the seals.

Method 4 Securing Your Home.
1. Choose your shelter type. A standalone shelter is a separate building that is designed to withstand natural disasters or man-made weapons or attacks. An internal shelter is a room within your home that has been designed to protect you from the elements or other hazards. In an economic collapse, power systems may fail and looters and scavengers may threaten your home. Take precautions to protect yourself.
2. Create two sources of electricity. One source could be solar. Hook it up to your home and then run the system discretely underground. The second source might be an underground generator. You will use this in the event of a total loss of power. Keep your energy sources hidden underground to protect them.
3. Choose the size of your shelter. The size of your shelter depends on how many people you need to protect and the size of your food stockpile. An adult needs 10 cups of water and 1,200 calories per day. In addition, each adult needs 10 cubic feet of natural atmosphere to have enough air to breathe, so you will need an air system that lets in and filters fresh air. If you are planning to stay in the shelter long-term, invest now in making it large and comfortable enough for everyone. If it is only going to be a short-term living space, you don’t have to make it as comfortable.
4. Keep the location of your shelter secret. Protect yourself from others who were not prepared and may want to take what you have. Don’t let your neighbors see you creating a shelter. You can choose a remote location, but it may be difficult to access it later. If you choose to make a safe room in your home, create a secret entrance from within your house. This way others will not be alerted to your shelter.
5. Purchase self-defense tools. Self-defense tools are generally non-lethal. They are used to fend off an attack by rendering the attacker ineffective. You can use everyday objects, such as baseball bats or keys. But these may not be as effective as tools designed for your protection.
Mace and pepper spray can be sprayed into an attacker’s face to give you time to get away.
Hand-held stun guns deliver a large electrical shock to stun the attacker.
Taser devices shoot two small probes a distance of up to 15 feet that transmit an electrical charge to the attacker.
Sonic alarms create a loud noise to let others know that you are in trouble.
6. Set up an alarm system in your home. Wireless security systems are easy and inexpensive to install and maintain. Home alert alarm systems notify you if an intruder is approaching your home. Hidden cameras allow you to see internal and exterior areas in your home where an intruder may be present. Phone dialing alarms can be installed inside or outside your home and allow you to contact authorities with the push of a button. Child monitoring alarms notify you if your child goes beyond a certain perimeter of your home.
7. Purchase weapons. Weapons can be used for either self-defense or for hunting. A crossbow is easy to shoot and aim. It’s also quiet, so it doesn’t alert people or animals to your presence. A long-range rifle allows you to hunt game from a distance. A machete can clear brush or fend off a dangerous animal. A slingshot is good for hunting small animals. Have pistols on hand and teach others to shoot, reload, shoot from cover and work as a team for protection. If you plan to have lethal weapons, be sure to train everyone who has access to them in the proper use of these weapons.
Stockpile appropriate ammunition and arrows for your weapons.
8. Gather necessary tools. Having the right tools on hand can make the difference between surviving and not surviving during any kind of disaster. You not only want to be able to protect your home, but you also need to be able to build anything you might need.
Have a bolt-cutter on hand to cut through fences and wire.
Picks, shovels, axes, chain saws and bow saws allow you dig and gather and cut wood.
Rope and paracords are essential for assembling simple and complex survival systems.
Tarps are necessary as ground covers or for weather-proofing, Stock pile nails and plywood for building and repairs.
Keep large trash bags for waste disposal, Have gasoline for fuel or a fire starter, Get a propane stove for cooking, Have a fishing rod for catching fish.

Method 5 Preparing Your Family.
1. Make sure everyone is aware of the situation. In order to prepare for economic collapse, you will have to make sure that your whole family is on board with your preparations. This means informing them in honest terms what is about to happen and telling them what they should be doing. Make sure everyone takes the situation seriously. Otherwise, they will not be mentally prepared in the event that economic collapse actually occurs.
2. Check that each family member is individually prepared. Inform each other family member of the steps you have taken to prepare your finances, essential supplies, food, and shelter. Instruct them on doing the same. Make sure each family member has also packed a bag of essentials that they can grab if they are forced to leave the house without notice. This bag should contain enough survival essentials to last between 72 hours and a week.
3. Train family members in survival skills. Your immediate family members should be aware of how to handle weapons safely, perform basic first aid, hunt or grow food, and maintain your shelter. If they don't already have these skills, take the time to instruct them thoroughly. You never know when you might have to depend on them.
4. Work with another family or group. In addition to your immediate family, consider including other family members, neighbors, or a community group (like a church group) in your preparations. Make sure that these are people who are reliable and will put in work for the benefit of the group. You will be safer and work more efficiently if you can increase the size of your group.

Method 6 Anticipating a Financial Crisis.
1. Monitor the financial markets. Calm markets tend to go up. But if the market gets choppy, meaning prices swing up and down considerably, it will likely decline. Don’t be fooled if he market soars for one day. Big ups and downs in the markets are a red flag signaling an overall decline.
2. Keep an eye on global 10 year bond yields. Global bonds are bonds that are issued in several countries at once by governments or large multi-national companies. When 10 year global bond yields drop, it is in indicator that investors are withdrawing their money to put it in safer investments. This happened before the financial crisis that happened in 2008. A significant drop in 10 year global bond yields means that investors think a financial crisis is coming.
3. Pay attention to oil prices. The fluctuation of oil prices has a macroeconomic impact. When oil prices increase, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) goes up too. The GDP is a quantitative measure of the nation’s total activity. If it is increasing, then the value of goods and services is also going up. If periods of high oil prices signal good times for the world economy, then the opposite is also true. If oil prices are on the decline, expect the GDP and the financial markets to also decline.
4. Understand the relationship between inflation and economic growth. Economic growth tends to lead to inflation. As demand increases, prices are driven up and unemployment falls. As unemployment falls, wages increase. As wages increase, people spend more, which leads to inflation of prices. Conversely, when economic activity slows down, so does inflation. Therefore, if the price of goods and services slows dramatically, it could signal a major downturn in the economy.
5. Monitor the price of commercial commodities. Commercial commodities are goods exchanged during commerce, such as gold, lumber, beef or natural gas. Changes in the prices of commodities affect the United States economy and the value of the U.S. dollar. An increase in commodity prices is correlated with an increase in inflation. Increased inflation correlates with economic growth. However, if commodity prices drop, inflation slows, which indicates economic decline.

Community Q&A.

Question : Where can I join a survival group to prepare for the potential economic collapse?
Answer : Facebook groups are the best place to start. Search for survival groups.
Question : Why would I pay off my debt first? If the economy collapses, my creditors' well being will take a backseat to my family's well being.
Answer : If you owe money to creditors, you would be putting your family at risk during such a time if you failed to keep paying back debts. Creditors are enabled by law to come and claim some of your assets if you have stopped paying them in order to protect your family's well being. In a time like this, assets are everything.
Question : Is an investment in gold and/or silver appropriate? If so, what are your recommendations, and why?
Answer : While gold used to be the standard for currency, it is still very valuable during recessions. Purchasing gold or silver can be a great way to diversify your investments.
Question : If I have a high car payment, and my IRA is large enough to pay off the vehicle, should I close the IRA and pay off the car?
Answer : Sell your expensive car and purchase an older, reliable vehicle with cash. One should never finance an item that depreciates in value, and keep your IRA.
Question : When is the economic collapse expected? In 2018 when bond yields drop?
Answer : No one really knows, but we can predict certain fluctuations (presidential elections or new terms, corporations moving out of the country, major world events, etc.) It's just best to be prepared for it with at minimum a month's supply of essentials.
Question : Should I get out of all stocks if preparing for economic collapse? Should I pay off my mortgage if I have the stock to do so?
Answer : No. Hedge your bets by keeping your portfolio 60% in stock index funds and 40% in bond index funds. I recommend Vanguard because of the low fees. Also, do not pay off your mortgage. You need cash flow. In a collapse, you will have the moral authority to defend your home with violence if necessary.
Question : With a low fixed rate mortgage, should I have my house paid off when the U.S. dollar crashes?
Answer : If you can, hold onto the cash needed to pay off your mortgage. When the dollar crashes, it won't be worth much for buying anything, but the bank still has to take it for your mortgage.
Question : What is the best way to reduce my losses on a savings account if the currency is devalued?
Answer : The best way is to not have a savings account at all. You have more liquidity keeping your money in your checking account. So take that money out of your savings account and open up another checking account with a debit card. Do not use it.
June 02, 2020


How to Calculate an Amount to Be Financed.


The full price of a major purchase such as a house, boat or car is rarely financed. Most lenders for these types of loans require a down payment of some sort, usually expressed as a percentage. Additionally, mortgage loans list a different figure, "amount financed," which does not include prepaid fees paid to the lender. Knowing how to calculate an amount to be financed will help you make informed consumer decisions.



Part 1 Calculating a Commercial Loan Amount to be Financed.

1. Determine the selling price. For a vehicle, boat, or another type of commercial loan purchase this will be the amount you agree to pay for your new acquisition. It does not include other aspects of the deal such as the trade-in allowance, fees, taxes, and other closing costs.

2. Subtract any net trade-in allowance. For auto or boat purchases, among others, a dealer may offer a trade-in allowance or credit for giving them your old car or boat when you buy a new one. The value of this item, or a credit provided by the dealer, is then subtracted from what you owe on your new purchase. The net trade-in allowance is found by subtracting the amount still owed on your trade from the trade-in allowance offered by the dealership.

If the trade-in is high enough, dealers don't typically require an extra payment, such as a down payment.

Some dealers may allow you to use the trade-in value of your old vehicle to cover the required down payment on a new one (assuming the old one holds enough value).

3. Account for any cash rebates that are applied to the purchase price of the item. Dealers may also offer cash rebates as a way to incentivize purchases. These cash rebates are simply subtracted from the purchase price at closing. They also do not need to be included in the amount to be financed. Rebates may be provided to certain buyers, like students or military veterans, or may be specific to certain vehicles.

4. Settle on a loan amount. The amount left after rebates and trade-ins is the the amount owed. This amount must be either paid in full or borrowed from a lender and paid off in installments over time. From here, you can calculate the down payment if the lender requires one. For example, a lender might require 10 or 20 percent down on your purchase. Your loan amount is then the amount remaining after the down payment is subtracted out.

5. Use the loan amount as your amount financed. "Amount financed" is a term that is specific to home loans. All other loans simply refer to the amount financed as the total amount of the loan provided to the borrower. For these types of loans, simply use the loan amount after the down payment as calculated in this part as your amount financed.



Part 2 Determining the Amount Financed for a Mortgage Loan.

1. Negotiate a price for the asset with the seller. For a home, this will be your accepted offer price. For example, you might talk a homeowner down to selling a property for $100,000.

2. Subtract any deposits. Home purchases may have required a "good faith" deposit. Other purchases may also require a deposit be made while bidding on or reserving the item. This deposit is typically paid upon submission of an offer to purchase. This money is then subtracted from the purchase price, as you have already paid it.

Deposits are either returned (depending upon terms) or converted into the down payment amount and/or closing costs.

For example, if you put in a $3,000 good faith deposit on a $100,000 home, you would subtract this from the $100,000 to get $97,000.

3. Finalize the loan amount. The portion of the original purchase price remaining after these deductions is your loan amount, assuming you are planning on financing the purchase. This amount must be borrowed from a lender and then repaid over a period of time per a loan agreement. The loan amount is the amount borrowed from the lender, not the amount that will eventually be repaid in total, which also includes interest expenses.

4. Deduct the down payment amount. The down payment is paid in full upon closing the sale. It is generally a percentage of the total purchase price and is designed to provide security for the lender in the event of default. Therefore, it is not included in the amount financed.

Many mortgage lenders require 20 percent down on a real estate transaction, although you may be able to secure an FHA-backed mortgage requiring as little as 5 percent down payment. A lower loan balance results in less interest expense and the possible requirement of mortgage insurance.

A lower downpayment is expected on government- guaranteed loans such as FHA or VA because the lender has recourse to the Federal government in the event of default.

For example, if you paid a 20 percent down payment on the $100,000 house purchase, which would be $20,000, you would subtract this from your total.

Your good faith deposit may be applied towards your down payment. This means that the loan amount would still be the purchase price minus the down payment, which is $80,000 in this case.

5. Understand how amount financed differs from the loan amount. "Amount financed" is a term set by the 1968 Truth in Lending Act to describe how much credit is provided to a borrower when they take out a home loan. It is calculated by subtracting prepaid fees and finance charges from the loan amount, since these fees are paid at closing simultaneously with the execution of the loan documents. This means that the amount financed is always less than the actual loan amount. The amount financed is provided to borrowers on the Truth in Lending Disclosure Statement, which is supplied after you apply for a home loan.

6. Add up prepaid fees. Prepaid fees are subtracted from the loan amount to arrive at the amount financed. These fees include prepaid points, homeowners association fees, mortgage insurance, and escrow company fees. They also include lender fees like underwriting fees, tax service, process fees, and prepaid interest. Add all of these fees up to arrive a total prepaid fees amount.

7. Subtract total prepaid fees from the loan amount. Subtract all of the prepaid fees from the loan amount to get your amount financed. This information will also be available on your Truth in Lending Disclosure Statement.[9]



Part 3 Using the Amount Financed.

1. Compare different lenders. If you have the amount financed for a mortgage loan, you can use this information to compare different lenders by looking at the associated fees and interest rates. This information is provided on the Truth in Lending Disclosure Statement, which is provided by all lenders to loan applicants. If you instead are financing another purchase, you can use your amount of financing required to apply to a variety of loans and look for the best combination of fees and interest rate.

2. Calculate the amount of interest you will pay. Your loan will likely be charged compound interest as you pay it off. Compound interest paid increases with the loan duration, the interest rate, and the compounding frequency (how often the compound interest is calculated each year). When you have the amount financed, you can use online interest calculators to determine how much interest you will pay on loans with different loan terms. A longer, higher-interest loan will end up costing you much more money in the long run than a shorter-term, low-interest loan.

For more information, see how to calculate interest payments.

3. Calculate loan payments. If you know how much you need to borrower (your loan amount), you can use this information to check for loan rates online. Check loan aggregator sites to find interest rates for the type and size of loan that you need. Then, input this information into an online loan calculator to figure out what your monthly payments might be. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) provides a good calculator at http://apps.finra.org/Calcs/1/Loan.

4. Assess your ability to afford a purchase. Once you have an idea of the monthly loan payments, you can use this information to figure out how much you can afford to take out in a loan. Assess your ability to afford the loan by starting with your monthly after-tax income. Then, subtract any existing debt payments (mortgage, auto, etc.), monthly expenses like utilities and food, and savings or contributions to an emergency fund. The amount left is money that you can afford to pay towards a new loan's monthly payment.

Most financial planners suggest limiting house payments plus taxes and insurance to 25 to 28 percent of take-home income.

For example, if your household net income is $7,000 per month, your total outlay for housing should be no more than $1,960 per month.

5. Determine mortgage APR. Your actual mortgage annual percentage rate (APR) is calculated using your amount financed, rather than the loan amount. That is, your actual APR will be higher than the interest rate listed on your loan. To calculate your actual APR, find your monthly payment by using your stated interest rate, loan term, and loan amount and entering them into a loan calculator. Then, record your monthly payment and find a loan calculator that allows you to input your monthly payment, loan duration, and loan amount and receive an interest rate as the output. The output will be your actual APR.

A good calculator for this purpose can be found at http://www.thecalculatorsite.com/finance/calculators/interest-rate-calculator.php.



Question : Gomez family has just purchased a $2,574.54 microcomputer. They made a down payment of $574.54. Through the store's installemnt plan, they have agreed to pay $121.00 per month for the next 18 months. What is the amount financed?

Answer : The amount financed is the portion of the purchase price paid for by the installment plan. In this case, it is the $2,574.54 (purchase price) - $574.54 (the down payment), which is $2,000. The amount to be financed does not include the interest paid during the plan, which will be $178.

Question : Selling Price: $258,900. Loan term: 30 months on 5.25% interest rate. Down payment: $64,7325. What will be the amount to be financed?

Answer : You will be financing the selling price plus any fees, minus the down payment.



Tips.

When shopping for real estate, be sure that your price range reflects your planned amount financed. You may be able to afford more or less, depending upon your savings and the amount of a down payment.

Warnings.

The purchase agreement used by many car dealerships is notoriously complicated and confusing. Be certain that you understand every line item in the agreement before signing it when buying a new or used vehicle.
February 10, 2020


How to Calculate an Amount to Be Financed.


The full price of a major purchase such as a house, boat or car is rarely financed. Most lenders for these types of loans require a down payment of some sort, usually expressed as a percentage. Additionally, mortgage loans list a different figure, "amount financed," which does not include prepaid fees paid to the lender. Knowing how to calculate an amount to be financed will help you make informed consumer decisions.



Part 1 Calculating a Commercial Loan Amount to be Financed.

1. Determine the selling price. For a vehicle, boat, or another type of commercial loan purchase this will be the amount you agree to pay for your new acquisition. It does not include other aspects of the deal such as the trade-in allowance, fees, taxes, and other closing costs.

2. Subtract any net trade-in allowance. For auto or boat purchases, among others, a dealer may offer a trade-in allowance or credit for giving them your old car or boat when you buy a new one. The value of this item, or a credit provided by the dealer, is then subtracted from what you owe on your new purchase. The net trade-in allowance is found by subtracting the amount still owed on your trade from the trade-in allowance offered by the dealership.

If the trade-in is high enough, dealers don't typically require an extra payment, such as a down payment.

Some dealers may allow you to use the trade-in value of your old vehicle to cover the required down payment on a new one (assuming the old one holds enough value).

3. Account for any cash rebates that are applied to the purchase price of the item. Dealers may also offer cash rebates as a way to incentivize purchases. These cash rebates are simply subtracted from the purchase price at closing. They also do not need to be included in the amount to be financed. Rebates may be provided to certain buyers, like students or military veterans, or may be specific to certain vehicles.

4. Settle on a loan amount. The amount left after rebates and trade-ins is the the amount owed. This amount must be either paid in full or borrowed from a lender and paid off in installments over time. From here, you can calculate the down payment if the lender requires one. For example, a lender might require 10 or 20 percent down on your purchase. Your loan amount is then the amount remaining after the down payment is subtracted out.

5. Use the loan amount as your amount financed. "Amount financed" is a term that is specific to home loans. All other loans simply refer to the amount financed as the total amount of the loan provided to the borrower. For these types of loans, simply use the loan amount after the down payment as calculated in this part as your amount financed.



Part 2 Determining the Amount Financed for a Mortgage Loan.

1. Negotiate a price for the asset with the seller. For a home, this will be your accepted offer price. For example, you might talk a homeowner down to selling a property for $100,000.

2. Subtract any deposits. Home purchases may have required a "good faith" deposit. Other purchases may also require a deposit be made while bidding on or reserving the item. This deposit is typically paid upon submission of an offer to purchase. This money is then subtracted from the purchase price, as you have already paid it.

Deposits are either returned (depending upon terms) or converted into the down payment amount and/or closing costs.

For example, if you put in a $3,000 good faith deposit on a $100,000 home, you would subtract this from the $100,000 to get $97,000.

3. Finalize the loan amount. The portion of the original purchase price remaining after these deductions is your loan amount, assuming you are planning on financing the purchase. This amount must be borrowed from a lender and then repaid over a period of time per a loan agreement. The loan amount is the amount borrowed from the lender, not the amount that will eventually be repaid in total, which also includes interest expenses.

4. Deduct the down payment amount. The down payment is paid in full upon closing the sale. It is generally a percentage of the total purchase price and is designed to provide security for the lender in the event of default. Therefore, it is not included in the amount financed.

Many mortgage lenders require 20 percent down on a real estate transaction, although you may be able to secure an FHA-backed mortgage requiring as little as 5 percent down payment. A lower loan balance results in less interest expense and the possible requirement of mortgage insurance.

A lower downpayment is expected on government- guaranteed loans such as FHA or VA because the lender has recourse to the Federal government in the event of default.

For example, if you paid a 20 percent down payment on the $100,000 house purchase, which would be $20,000, you would subtract this from your total.

Your good faith deposit may be applied towards your down payment. This means that the loan amount would still be the purchase price minus the down payment, which is $80,000 in this case.

5. Understand how amount financed differs from the loan amount. "Amount financed" is a term set by the 1968 Truth in Lending Act to describe how much credit is provided to a borrower when they take out a home loan. It is calculated by subtracting prepaid fees and finance charges from the loan amount, since these fees are paid at closing simultaneously with the execution of the loan documents. This means that the amount financed is always less than the actual loan amount. The amount financed is provided to borrowers on the Truth in Lending Disclosure Statement, which is supplied after you apply for a home loan.

6. Add up prepaid fees. Prepaid fees are subtracted from the loan amount to arrive at the amount financed. These fees include prepaid points, homeowners association fees, mortgage insurance, and escrow company fees. They also include lender fees like underwriting fees, tax service, process fees, and prepaid interest. Add all of these fees up to arrive a total prepaid fees amount.

7. Subtract total prepaid fees from the loan amount. Subtract all of the prepaid fees from the loan amount to get your amount financed. This information will also be available on your Truth in Lending Disclosure Statement.[9]



Part 3 Using the Amount Financed.

1. Compare different lenders. If you have the amount financed for a mortgage loan, you can use this information to compare different lenders by looking at the associated fees and interest rates. This information is provided on the Truth in Lending Disclosure Statement, which is provided by all lenders to loan applicants. If you instead are financing another purchase, you can use your amount of financing required to apply to a variety of loans and look for the best combination of fees and interest rate.

2. Calculate the amount of interest you will pay. Your loan will likely be charged compound interest as you pay it off. Compound interest paid increases with the loan duration, the interest rate, and the compounding frequency (how often the compound interest is calculated each year). When you have the amount financed, you can use online interest calculators to determine how much interest you will pay on loans with different loan terms. A longer, higher-interest loan will end up costing you much more money in the long run than a shorter-term, low-interest loan.

For more information, see how to calculate interest payments.

3. Calculate loan payments. If you know how much you need to borrower (your loan amount), you can use this information to check for loan rates online. Check loan aggregator sites to find interest rates for the type and size of loan that you need. Then, input this information into an online loan calculator to figure out what your monthly payments might be. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) provides a good calculator at http://apps.finra.org/Calcs/1/Loan.

4. Assess your ability to afford a purchase. Once you have an idea of the monthly loan payments, you can use this information to figure out how much you can afford to take out in a loan. Assess your ability to afford the loan by starting with your monthly after-tax income. Then, subtract any existing debt payments (mortgage, auto, etc.), monthly expenses like utilities and food, and savings or contributions to an emergency fund. The amount left is money that you can afford to pay towards a new loan's monthly payment.

Most financial planners suggest limiting house payments plus taxes and insurance to 25 to 28 percent of take-home income.

For example, if your household net income is $7,000 per month, your total outlay for housing should be no more than $1,960 per month.

5. Determine mortgage APR. Your actual mortgage annual percentage rate (APR) is calculated using your amount financed, rather than the loan amount. That is, your actual APR will be higher than the interest rate listed on your loan. To calculate your actual APR, find your monthly payment by using your stated interest rate, loan term, and loan amount and entering them into a loan calculator. Then, record your monthly payment and find a loan calculator that allows you to input your monthly payment, loan duration, and loan amount and receive an interest rate as the output. The output will be your actual APR.

A good calculator for this purpose can be found at http://www.thecalculatorsite.com/finance/calculators/interest-rate-calculator.php.



Question : Gomez family has just purchased a $2,574.54 microcomputer. They made a down payment of $574.54. Through the store's installemnt plan, they have agreed to pay $121.00 per month for the next 18 months. What is the amount financed?

Answer : The amount financed is the portion of the purchase price paid for by the installment plan. In this case, it is the $2,574.54 (purchase price) - $574.54 (the down payment), which is $2,000. The amount to be financed does not include the interest paid during the plan, which will be $178.

Question : Selling Price: $258,900. Loan term: 30 months on 5.25% interest rate. Down payment: $64,7325. What will be the amount to be financed?

Answer : You will be financing the selling price plus any fees, minus the down payment.



Tips.

When shopping for real estate, be sure that your price range reflects your planned amount financed. You may be able to afford more or less, depending upon your savings and the amount of a down payment.

Warnings.

The purchase agreement used by many car dealerships is notoriously complicated and confusing. Be certain that you understand every line item in the agreement before signing it when buying a new or used vehicle.
February 10, 2020