Ray Dalio: 3 pieces of advice for how to manage your savings in a coronavirus recession

Ray Dalio: 3 pieces of advice for how to manage your savings in a coronavirus recession.

By Tom Huddleston Jr.

Though the stock market is on the rebound of late as more and more states reopen, hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio has made it clear that he expects the ongoing coronavirus pandemic to leave behind an economic downturn that could be the worst since the Great Depression.

“We’re not going to go back to normal” once the pandemic subsides, Dalio previously told CNBC Make It, arguing against the idea of a “v-shaped recovery” where the economy would rebound quickly once the country fully reopens.

“Think of the virus as like a tsunami that comes in,” Dalio said. “And if it goes away completely and we never see it again, it still will produce damage, the financial damage ... incomes that are lost, balance sheets that are hurt, restructurings that need to take place. So that will impede the recovery.”

With that in mind, Dalio has advice for Americans worrying about whether or not their savings will keep them afloat should the economy truly take a historic turn for the worse that lasts well beyond 2020.

Though 21% of Americans do not save any of their annual income, according to a 2019 Bankrate survey, for those who do, Dalio offers up three pieces of advice on relatively safe investment strategies to carry you through.

Determine how far your savings will go
First, you need to take a hard look at your savings and calculate how much you need to be “safe and free,” Dalio says.

″[Determine] how many months or years can you get by” based on your current savings and what it would take to ensure you can still have the type of life you’re comfortable leading, he says.

In other words, you should calculate your average, basic expenses — from rent or mortgage payments to food costs and other essential bills that cannot be trimmed or cut out completely — in order to figure out how much money you would need to survive losing a major source of income.

Dalio suggests saving enough to make sure “you’re okay for ‘X’ amount of time,” he says, whether that’s several months, or even a year.

Remember, “you don’t have to have a world of luxury to cover the basics,” he says.

And “when you’ve [calculated] that savings ... cut it in half, just to be conservative,” Dalio says. “Because between taxes, inflation and possible losses in your portfolio, maybe they can add up to half.”

“That’s No. 1. Do those calculations so that you know, if everything is bad, you and your family [are] still good,” Dalio says.

Once you have that amount of your portfolio set aside to feel safe, Dalio says you can start planning how to put the rest of your money to work for you by investing any money that is not part of what you’ve set aside from your expenses.

“I want you to visualize your acceptable worst case scenario and secure that, because once you do, everything else changes and you can have peace of mind that you can take more risk,” Dalio says. “But if you haven’t secured that acceptable picture, you have to make doing that your top priority.”

Diversify your investments
Which brings on Dalio’s second piece of money advice, which is to take the money that you feel comfortable building on and “diversify that portfolio well.” That means spreading your money across different asset classes that can typically be counted on to perform relatively well no matter the economic environment.

“You need to diversify by holding assets that will do well in either a rising or a falling growth environment, or a rising or falling inflation environment, and [you] should diversify by holding international as well as domestic asset classes,” Dalio says.

For instance, the billionaire has been adamant that investors should back “both horses in the race” in terms of the U.S.-China trade war and the two superpowers’ increasing competition for economic growth in recent years.

“I believe Chinese businesses are competitors of American businesses or other business around the world, and that therefore you want to be, if you’re diversified, having bets on both horses in the race,” Dalio said in 2019.

Dalio has also argued against holding onto cash or government bonds at the moment, due to fears that currency inflation could hurt their value over time. “Cash is not going to be a good investment,” he says, adding: “In relation to inflation, it’ll probably lose 2% a year and maybe more.”

Dalio does see gold as a more attractive asset, he says, echoing his sentiments from January, when he said: “I think you have to have a little bit of gold in your portfolio.” Many investors, including billionaire Warren Buffett, tend to look at gold as a relatively safe and steady investment in times of crisis.

Don’t try to time the market
Lastly, Dalio says never try to time the market.

That is “going to be really important.”

In the past, Dalio has said that the “biggest mistake that most people make is to judge what will be good by what has been good lately” in terms of looking at how the stock market has performed recently and when is the best time to buy.

Trying to perfectly time the market is something that even professionals can’t always manage, and the average person will find it extremely difficult to do successfully, Dalio says.

“To do that well you have to beat the pros, who themselves typically can’t do that well.”

Instead, it’s probably a better idea for non-professional investors to take long-term positions in a diversified portfolio that can pay off over time. Otherwise, all investors need to keep in mind the historical cycles and patterns of the economy and stock market.

From bubbles leading into busts, and vice versa, Dalio has always been adamant that those economic cycles tend to repeat themselves and that investors need to learn to avoid thinking along the lines of: ”‘That’s a bad market, and I don’t want any of it,’” Dalio previously told CNBC Make It. That’s because a bear market might actually be the best time to get bargain prices on certain stocks.

After all, a company like Amazon once saw its stock price lost most of its value after the tech bubble burst in the early 2000s, but many of the company’s long-term investors (those who held onto the stock through rough times, or bought it at a nadir) have seen huge gains because they ignored the most recent market trends at the time and took a long-term approach that’s paid off as Amazon is now worth several times what it was even just a decade ago.

August 11, 2020

Charlie Munger on Getting Rich, Wisdom, Focus, Fake Knowledge and More.

Charlie Munger on Getting Rich, Wisdom, Focus, Fake Knowledge and More.

“In the chronicles of American financial history,” writes David Clark in The Tao of Charlie Munger: A Compilation of Quotes from Berkshire Hathaway’s Vice Chairman on Life, Business, and the Pursuit of Wealth, “Charlie Munger will be seen as the proverbial enigma wrapped in a paradox—he is both a mystery and a contradiction at the same time.”

On one hand, Munger received an elite education and it shows: He went to Cal Tech to train as a meteorologist for the Second World War and then attended Harvard Law School and eventually opened his own law firm. That part of his success makes sense.
Yet here’s a man who never took a single course in economics, business, marketing, finance, psychology, or accounting, and managed to become one of the greatest, most admired, and most honorable businessmen of our age. He was noted by essentially all observers for the originality of his thoughts, especially about business and human behavior. You don’t learn that in law school, at Harvard or anywhere else.
Bill Gates said of him: “He is truly the broadest thinker I have ever encountered.” His business partner Warren Buffett put it another way: “He comes equipped for rationality… I would say that to try and typecast Charlie in terms of any other human that I can think of, no one would fit. He’s got his own mold.”
How does such an extreme result happen? How is such an original and unduly capable mind formed? In the case of Munger, it’s clearly a combination of unusual genetics and an unusual approach to learning and life.
While we can’t have his genetics, we can try to steal his approach to rationality. There’s almost no limit to the amount one could learn from studying the Munger mind, so let’s at least start with a rundown of some of his best ideas.


Wisdom and Circles of Competence.
“Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.”
“Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom.”
Identify your circle of competence and use your knowledge, when possible, to stay away from things you don’t understand. There are no points for difficulty at work or in life.  Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.
Of course this principle relates to another of Munger’s sayings: “People are trying to be smart—all I am trying to do is not to be idiotic, but it’s harder than most people think.”
And this reminds me of perhaps my favorite Mungerism of all time, the very quote that sits right beside my desk:
“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”

Divergence.
“Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean.”
Here’s a simple axiom to live by: If you do what everyone else does, you’re going to get the same results that everyone else gets. This means that, taking out luck (good or bad), if you act average, you’re going to be average. If you want to move away from average, you must diverge. You must be different. And if you want to outperform others, you must be different and correct. As Munger would say, “How could it be otherwise?”

Know When to Fold ’Em.
“Life, in part, is like a poker game, wherein you have to learn to quit sometimes when holding a much-loved hand—you must learn to handle mistakes and new facts that change the odds.”
Mistakes are an opportunity to grow. How we handle adversity is up to us. This is how we become personally antifragile.

False Models.
Echoing Einstein, who said that “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts,” Munger said this about his and Buffett’s shift to acquiring high-quality businesses for Berkshire Hathaway:
“Once we’d gotten over the hurdle of recognizing that a thing could be a bargain based on quantitative measures that would have horrified Graham, we started thinking about better businesses.”

Being Lazy.
“Sit on your ass. You’re paying less to brokers, you’re listening to less nonsense, and if it works, the tax system gives you an extra one, two, or three percentage points per annum.”
Time is a friend to a good business and the enemy of the poor business. It’s also the friend of knowledge and the enemy of the new and novel. As Seneca said, “Time discovers truth.”

Investing Is a Perimutuel System.
“You’re looking for a mispriced gamble,” says Munger. “That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.”  At another time, he added: “You should remember that good ideas are rare— when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.”
May the odds forever be in your favor. Actually, learning properly is one way you can tilt the odds in your favor.

Focus.
When asked about his success, Munger says, “I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”
Long attention spans allow for a deep understanding of subjects. When combined with deliberate practice, focus allows you to increase your skills and get out of your rut. The Art of Focus is a divergent and correct strategy that can help you identify where the leverage points are and apply your efforts toward them.

Fake Knowledge.
“Smart people aren’t exempt from professional disasters from overconfidence.”
We’re so used to outsourcing our thinking to others that we’ve forgotten what it’s like to really understand something from all perspectives. We’ve forgotten just how much work that takes. The path of least resistance, however, is just a click away. Fake knowledge, which comes from reading headlines and skimming the news, seems harmless, but it’s not. It makes us overconfident. It’s better to remember a simple trick: anything you’re getting easily through Google or Twitter is likely to be widely known and should not be given undue weight.
However, Munger adds, “If people weren’t wrong so often, we wouldn’t be so rich.”

Sit Quietly.
Echoing Pascal, who said some version of “All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone,” Munger adds an investing twist: “It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait.”
The ability to be alone with your thoughts and turn ideas over and over, without giving in to Do Something syndrome, affects so many of us. A perfectly reasonable option is to hold your ground and await more information.

Deal With Reality.
“I think that one should recognize reality even when one doesn’t like it; indeed, especially when one doesn’t like it.”
Munger clearly learned from Joseph Tussman’s wisdom. This means facing harsh truths that you might prefer to ignore. It means meeting the world on the world’s terms, not according to how you wish it would be. If this causes temporary pain, so be it. “Your pain,” writes Kahil Gibran in The Prophet, “is the breaking of the shell that encloses your understanding.”

There Is No Free Lunch.
We like quick solutions that don’t require a lot of effort. We’re drawn to the modern equivalent of an old hustler selling an all-curing tonic. However, the world does not work that way. Munger expands:
“There isn’t a single formula. You need to know a lot about business and human nature and the numbers… It is unreasonable to expect that there is a magic system that will do it for you.”
Acquiring knowledge is hard work. It’s reading and adding to your knowledge so it compounds. It’s going deep and developing fluency, something Darwin knew well.

Maximization/Minimization.
“In business we often find that the winning system goes almost ridiculously far in maximizing and or minimizing one or a few variables—like the discount warehouses of Costco.”
When everything is a priority, nothing is a priority. Attempting to maximize competing variables is a recipe for disaster. Picking one variable and relentlessly focusing on it, which is an effective strategy, diverges from the norm. It’s hard to compete with businesses that have correctly identified the right variables to maximize or minimize. When you focus on one variable, you’ll increase the odds that you’re quick and nimble — and can respond to changes in the terrain.

Map and Terrain.
“At Berkshire there has never been a master plan. Anyone who wanted to do it, we fired because it takes on a life of its own and doesn’t cover new reality. We want people taking into account new information.”
Plans are maps that we become attached to. Once we’ve told everyone there is a plan and what that plan is, especially multi-year plans, we’re psychologically more likely to stick to it because coming out and changing it would be admitting we were wrong. This makes it harder for us to change our strategies when we need to, so we’re stacking the odds against ourselves. Detailed five-year plans (that will clearly be wrong) are as disastrous as overly general five-year plans (which can never be wrong).
Scrap the plan, isolate the key variables that you need to maximize and minimize, and follow the agile path blazed by Henry Singleton and followed by Buffett and Munger.

The Keys to Good Government.
There are three keys: honesty, effectiveness, and efficiency. Munger says:
“In a democracy, everyone takes turns. But if you really want a lot of wisdom, it’s better to concentrate decisions and process in one person. It’s no accident that Singapore has a much better record, given where it started, than the United States. There, power was concentrated in an enormously talented person, Lee Kuan Yew, who was the Warren Buffett of Singapore.”
Lee Kuan Yew put it this way: “With few exceptions, democracy has not brought good government to new developing countries. … What Asians value may not necessarily be what Americans or Europeans value. Westerners value the freedoms and liberties of the individual. As an Asian of Chinese cultural background, my values are for a government which is honest, effective, and efficient.”

One Step At a Time.
“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day—if you live long enough—most people get what they deserve.”
An incremental approach to life reminds one of the nature of compounding. There will always be someone going faster than you, but you can learn from the Darwinian guide to overachieving your natural IQ. In order for this approach to be effective, you need a long axis of time as well as continuous incremental progress.

Getting Rich.
“The desire to get rich fast is pretty dangerous.”
Getting rich is a function of being happy with what you have, spending less than you make, and time.

Mental Models.
“Know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely—all of them, not just a few.”
Mental models are the big ideas from multiple disciplines. While most people agree that these are worth knowing, they often think they can identify which models will add the most value, and in so doing they miss something important. There is a reason that the “know-nothing” index fund almost always beats the investors who think they know. Understanding this idea in greater detail will change a lot of things, including how you read. Acquiring the big ideas — without selectivity — is the way to mimic a know-nothing index fund.

Know-it-alls.
“I try to get rid of people who always confidently answer questions about which they don’t have any real knowledge.”
Few things have made as much of a difference in my life as systemically removing (and when that’s not possible, reducing the importance of) people who think they know the answer to everything.

Stoic Resolve.
“There’s no way that you can live an adequate life without many mistakes. In fact, one trick in life is to get so you can handle mistakes. Failure to handle psychological denial is a common way for people to go broke.”
While we all make mistakes, it’s how we respond to failure that defines us.


Thinking.
“We all are learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. You must force yourself to consider arguments on the other side.”
“It’s bad to have an opinion you’re proud of if you can’t state the arguments for the other side better than your opponents. This is a great mental discipline.”
Thinking is a lot of work. “My first thought,” William Deresiewicz said in one of my favorite speeches, “is never my best thought. My first thought is always someone else’s; it’s always what I’ve already heard about the subject, always the conventional wisdom.”

Choose Your Associates Wisely.
“Oh, it’s just so useful dealing with people you can trust and getting all the others the hell out of your life. It ought to be taught as a catechism. … [W]ise people want to avoid other people who are just total rat poison, and there are a lot of them.”

August 07, 2020

Five Secrets To Buffett’s Success.

Five Secrets To Buffett’s Success.

By John P. Reese.

Warren Buffett has made enough money by investing over the decades to warrant the attention he gets.
But why haven't others been able to generate the billions of dollars of personal wealth he has amassed using the same techniques? At Validea, I study and extract the stock selection methods of great investors and my strategies have come nowhere near Buffett’s incredible long-term results.
It could be that Buffett, and his Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) conglomerate, follow some simple investment rules that others find difficult to follow.
Patience and discipline over the long-term—and we're talking decades, here, not quarters, months or weeks—isn't the hallmark of the typical investor. It is one of Buffett's strong suits.
Having a process and sticking with it through thick and thin is also difficult for the average investor, so much so that Buffett himself has advised those who can't do it to stick to low-cost funds that track market indexes. But there is also Buffett's willingness to not follow the crowd when stocks are hot and being brave when others aren't and grabbing those unique opportunities.

Here are five secrets to Buffett's success.

Dividend stocks.
Companies that pay dividends tend to have characteristics Buffett likes, such as a good market share and steady and reliable growth and profitability. Otherwise, management wouldn't feel comfortable giving a set portion of the cash flow every quarter back to investors. Dividend-paying companies historically outperform those that don't pay one.
Of course, for investors, dividends are a source of income, and Berkshire's $182 billion portfolio has certainly delivered on that score.
The payout on Berkshire's Bank of America (BAC) shares alone is more than $526 million. And Apple (AAPL) shares will pay about $737 million. Kraft Heinz pays $814 million and Coca Cola (KO) pays $624 million. Wells Fargo $760 million.
By one calculation, according to Motley Fool, Berkshire could collect more than $4.6 billion in dividend payments for 2019, based on the company's reported holdings. Berkshire's portfolio changes slightly from quarter to quarter, so that might not be an exact number, but the message is clear. Berkshire is making a lot of money from dividend investing.

Buy-and-hold strategy.
The portfolio also highlights Buffett's other secret: invest for the long term rather than attempting to time the market. This is a lesson he learned from Benjamin Graham, the so-called father of the value investing style, Buffett embraced decades ago. The underpinning of the strategy is to buy stocks, for less than they are worth fundamentally and hold on to them.
Someone who is frequently trading in and out of a stock is merely speculating on the direction of the market and various events that may affect it. That is a speculator, not an investor.
Truly value-oriented investors would be more concerned with a company's measurable value, including profitability and assets, not with the short-term events that create near-term price swings in the stock.
Berkshire's portfolio reflects Buffett's buy-and-hold philosophy. American Express (AXP) is a holding dating back to the mid-1960s. Coke (KO) shares have been in Berkshire's hands since the 1980s. So have shares of Wells Fargo (WFC).
Moody's Corporation (MCO) is another long-term holding going back more than a decade, as are U.S. Bancorp (USB) and Proctor & Gamble (PG).
Among Berkshire's biggest holdings, Apple is the newest entry, first appearing in 2017.

Don't be afraid to let go.
That is not to say Buffett hasn't made some mistakes, and he is open about them when he does. Shares of IBM (IBM) are the perfect example.
Berkshire had long shied away from technology stocks, but in 2011 began building a stake in IBM…..just as the company would begin an agonizing six-year stretch of declining revenue and shrinking market value. Berkshire finally tossed in the towel in 2018, admitting its investment thesis was flawed.
Buffett has also talked about famous misses, including Google, which has surged to over $1 trillion in market value in the last few years. He told shareholders at the annual meeting last year that he considered it and then passed. "I blew it."

Seize opportunities.
If Buffett's success is owed to anything, though, it's to being brave when others are afraid. This means taking a chance on a stock when the rest of the investing world is fleeing for the sidelines.
During the 2008-2009 financial crisis, when investors were panicking about the markets and banks were reeling from losses on mortgage-backed securities, Berkshire swooped in with a $5 billion deal to back Goldman Sachs. The deal included high-yielding preferred stock and the chance to buy more common stock down the road, which Berkshire did, netting billions when Goldman and the rest of the financial sector recovered.
Buffett stuck a similar deal in 2011 to help Bank of America, which was reeling from lawsuits dating back to the mortgage bond crisis. Berkshire swapped the preferred stock for common stock in 2017 and continued to increase his stake in the bank, collecting billions of dollars in dividends and capital gains along the way.

Don't follow the crowd.
Finally, Buffett avoids participating in a hot market. While the S&P 500 reached multiple records last year, Berkshire's pile of cash available to invest grew to $128 billion. This has baffled analysts but probably reflects Buffett's view that there isn't much out there that is valued to his liking, so the best solution is to avoid making a costly mistake and just wait it out.
Instead, Berkshire is doing something it hasn't done in the past: It's buying back its own stock, to the tune of $700 million in the third quarter and probably more for the final three months of last year. That reflects Buffett's belief that Berkshire is undervalued.
He told the Financial Times in an interview last year that the time Berkshire is finally trading at a fair price and the stock market also looks expensive would be his "nightmare."
For investors, you may not be able to achieve the performance Buffett has but these are timeless investing principles that can go a long way to helping you achieve good results in the stock market over time. Learning from successful investors like Buffett can go a long way for many investors.

August 04, 2020

Value Investing Strategies PART 2

Value Investing Strategies.

By ADAM HAYES.
The key to buying an undervalued stock is to thoroughly research the company and make common-sense decisions. Value investor Christopher H. Browne recommends asking if a company is likely to increase its revenue via the following methods:

Raising prices on products.
Increasing sales figures.
Decreasing expenses.
Selling off or closing down unprofitable divisions.

Browne also suggests studying a company's competitors to evaluate its future growth prospects. But the answers to all of these questions tend to be speculative, without any real supportive numerical data. Simply put: There are no quantitative software programs yet available to help achieve these answers, which makes value stock investing somewhat of a grand guessing game. For this reason, Warren Buffett recommends investing only in industries you have personally worked in, or whose consumer goods you are familiar with, like cars, clothes, appliances, and food.

One thing investors can do is choose the stocks of companies that sell high-demand products and services. While it's difficult to predict when innovative new products will capture market share, it's easy to gauge how long a company has been in business and study how it has adapted to challenges over time.

Insider Buying and Selling.
For our purposes, insiders are the company’s senior managers and directors, plus any shareholders who own at least 10% of the company’s stock. A company’s managers and directors have unique knowledge about the companies they run, so if they are purchasing its stock, it’s reasonable to assume that the company’s prospects look favorable.

Likewise, investors who own at least 10% of a company’s stock wouldn’t have bought so much if they didn’t see profit potential. Conversely, a sale of stock by an insider doesn’t necessarily point to bad news about the company’s anticipated performance — the insider might simply need cash for any number of personal reasons. Nonetheless, if mass sell-offs are occurring by insiders, such a situation may warrant further in-depth analysis of the reason behind the sale.

Analyze Earnings Reports.
At some point, value investors have to look at a company's financials to see how its performing and compare it to industry peers.

Financial reports present a company’s annual and quarterly performance results. The annual report is SEC form 10-K, and the quarterly report is SEC form 10-Q. Companies are required to file these reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). You can find them at the SEC website or the company’s investor relations page on their website.

You can learn a lot from a company’s annual report. It will explain the products and services offered as well as where the company is heading.

Analyze Financial Statements.
A company’s balance sheet provides a big picture of the company’s financial condition. The balance sheet consists of two sections, one listing the company’s assets and another listing its liabilities and equity. The assets section is broken down into a company’s cash and cash equivalents; investments; accounts receivable or money owed from customers, inventories, and fixed assets such as plant and equipment.

The liabilities section lists the company’s accounts payable or money owed, accrued liabilities, short-term debt, and long-term debt. The shareholders’ equity section reflects how much money is invested in the company, how many shares outstanding, and how much the company has as retained earnings. Retained earnings is a type of savings account that holds the cumulative profits from the company. Retained earnings are used to pay dividends, for example, and is considered a sign of a healthy, profitable company.

The income statement tells you how much revenue is being generated, the company's expenses, and profits. Looking at the annual income statement rather than a quarterly statement will give you a better idea of the company’s overall position since many companies experience fluctuations in sales volume during the year.

 Studies have consistently found that value stocks outperform growth stocks and the market as a whole, over the long-term.
Couch Potato Value Investing
It is possible to become a value investor without ever reading a 10-K. Couch potato investing is a passive strategy of buying and holding a few investing vehicles for which someone else has already done the investment analysis—i.e., mutual funds or exchange-traded funds. In the case of value investing, those funds would be those that follow the value strategy and buy value stocks—or track the moves of high-profile value investors, like Warren Buffet. Investors can buy shares of his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, which owns or has an interest in dozens of companies the Oracle of Omaha has researched and evaluated.

Risks with Value Investing.
As with any investment strategy, there's the risk of loss with value investing despite it being a low-to-medium-risk strategy. Below we highlight a few of those risks and why losses can occur.

The Figures are Important.
Many investors use financial statements when they make value investing decisions. So if you rely on your own analysis, make sure you have the most updated information and that your calculations are accurate. If not, you may end up making a poor investment or miss out on a great one. If you aren’t yet confident in your ability to read and analyze financial statements and reports, keep studying these subjects and don’t place any trades until you’re truly ready. (For more on this subject, learn more about financial statements.)

One strategy is to read the footnotes. These are the notes in a Form 10-K or Form 10-Q that explain a company’s financial statements in greater detail. The notes follow the statements and explain the company’s accounting methods and elaborate on reported results. If the footnotes are unintelligible or the information they present seems unreasonable, you’ll have a better idea of whether to pass on the stock.

Extraordinary Gains or Losses.
There are some incidents that may show up on a company's income statement that should be considered exceptions or extraordinary. These are generally beyond the company's control and are called extraordinary item—gain or extraordinary item—loss. Some examples include lawsuits, restructuring, or even a natural disaster. If you exclude these from your analysis, you can probably get a sense of the company's future performance.

However, think critically about these items, and use your judgment. If a company has a pattern of reporting the same extraordinary item year after year, it might not be too extraordinary. Also, if there are unexpected losses year after year, this can be a sign that the company is having financial problems. Extraordinary items are supposed to be unusual and nonrecurring. Also, beware of a pattern of write-offs.

Ignoring Ratio Analysis Flaws.
Earlier sections of this tutorial have discussed the calculation of various financial ratios that help investors diagnose a company’s financial health. There isn't just one way to determine financial ratios, which can be fairly problematic. The following can affect how the ratios can be interpreted:

Ratios can be determined using before-tax or after-tax numbers.
Some ratios don't give accurate results but lead to estimations.
Depending on how the term earnings are defined, a company's earnings per share (EPS) may differ.
Comparing different companies by their ratios—even if the ratios are the same—may be difficult since companies have different accounting practices. (Learn more about when a company recognizes profits in Understanding The Income Statement.)

Buying Overvalued Stock.
Overpaying for a stock is one of the main risks for value investors. You can risk losing part or all of your money if you overpay. The same goes if you buy a stock close to its fair market value. Buying a stock that's undervalued means your risk of losing money is reduced, even when the company doesn't do well.

Recall that one of the fundamental principles of value investing is to build a margin of safety into all your investments. This means purchasing stocks at a price of around two-thirds or less of their intrinsic value. Value investors want to risk as little capital as possible in potentially overvalued assets, so they try not to overpay for investments.

Not Diversifying.
Conventional investment wisdom says that investing in individual stocks can be a high-risk strategy. Instead, we are taught to invest in multiple stocks or stock indexes so that we have exposure to a wide variety of companies and economic sectors. However, some value investors believe that you can have a diversified portfolio even if you only own a small number of stocks, as long as you choose stocks that represent different industries and different sectors of the economy. Value investor and investment manager Christopher H. Browne recommends owning a minimum of 10 stocks in his “Little Book of Value Investing.” According to Benjamin Graham, a famous value investor, you should look at choosing 10 to 30 stocks if you want to diversify your holdings.

Another set of experts, though, say differently. If you want to get big returns, try choosing just a few stocks, according to the authors of the second edition of “Value Investing for Dummies.” They say having more stocks in your portfolio will probably lead to an average return. Of course, this advice assumes that you are great at choosing winners, which may not be the case, particularly if you are a value-investing novice.

Listening to Your Emotions.
It is difficult to ignore your emotions when making investment decisions. Even if you can take a detached, critical standpoint when evaluating numbers, fear and excitement may creep in when it comes time to actually use part of your hard-earned savings to purchase a stock. More importantly, once you have purchased the stock, you may be tempted to sell it if the price falls. Keep in mind that the point of value investing is to resist the temptation to panic and go with the herd. So don't fall into the trap of buying when share prices rise and selling when they drop. Such behavior will obliterate your returns. (Playing follow-the-leader in investing can quickly become a dangerous game.

Example of a Value Investment.
Value investors seek to profit from market overreactions that usually come from the release of a quarterly earnings report. As a historical real example, on May 4, 2016, Fitbit released its Q1 2016 earnings report and saw a sharp decline in after-hours trading. After the flurry was over, the company lost nearly 19% of its value. However, while large decreases in a company's share price are not uncommon after the release of an earnings report, Fitbit not only met analyst expectations for the quarter but even increased guidance for 2016.

The company earned $505.4 million in revenue for the first quarter of 2016, up more than 50% when compared to the same time period from one year ago. Further, Fitbit expects to generate between $565 million and $585 million in the second quarter of 2016, which is above the $531 million forecasted by analysts. The company looks to be strong and growing. However, since Fitbit invested heavily in research and development costs in the first quarter of the year, earnings per share (EPS) declined when compared to a year ago. This is all average investors needed to jump on Fitbit, selling off enough shares to cause the price to decline. However, a value investor looks at the fundamentals of Fitbit and understands it is an undervalued security, poised to potentially increase in the future.

The Bottom Line.
Value investing is a long-term strategy. Warren Buffett, for example, buys stocks with the intention of holding them almost indefinitely. He once said, “I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.” You will probably want to sell your stocks when it comes time to make a major purchase or retire, but by holding a variety of stocks and maintaining a long-term outlook, you can sell your stocks only when their price exceeds their fair market value (and the price you paid for them).

July 25, 2020

How Bitcoin Disrupts the Finance Industry

How Bitcoin Disrupts the Finance Industry .

Cryptocurrencies and their underlying blockchain technology are being touted as the next-big-thing after the creation of the internet. One area where these technologies are likely to have a major impact is the financial sector. The blockchain, as a form of distributed ledger technology (DLT), has the potential to transform well-established financial institutions and bring lower costs, faster execution of transactions, improved transparency, auditability of operations, and other benefits. Cryptocurrencies hold the promise of a new native digital asset class without a central authority.

So what do these technological developments mean for the various players in the sector and end users? “Blockchains have the potential to displace any business activity built on transactions occurring on traditional corporate databases, which is what underlies nearly every financial service function. Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications. DLT is therefore both a great opportunity and also a disruptive threat,” according to Bruce Weber, dean of Lerner College and business administration professor, and Andrew Novocin, professor of electrical and computer engineering, both at the University of Delaware.

Earlier this year, Weber, Novocin, and graduate student Jonathan Wood conducted a literature review on cryptocurrencies and DLT for the SWIFT Institute. Based on this review, the SWIFT institute recently issued a grant to conduct new research on DLT and cryptocurrencies in the financial sector. Weber and Novocin noted that just as disruptors like Amazon, Google, Facebook and Uber built software platforms and thriving businesses thanks to the connectivity provided by internet standards, next-generation startups will build new services and businesses with blockchains. “Many pundits expect blockchain, as a distributed technology, to become the foundation for new services and applications that have completely different rules from those running on hierarchical and controlled databases. Cryptocurrencies are an early example but many others will follow,” they added.

Kartik Hosanagar, a Wharton professor of marketing and operations, information and decisions, pointed out that the financial services sector is full of intermediaries such as banks that help create trust among transacting parties like lenders and borrowers. Blockchain, he said, is a mechanism to create trust without centralized control. “The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies, Hosanagar pointed out that most of the value today is tied to speculative buying rather than actual use cases. But having a currency without a central authority offers “certain unique kinds of protections especially in countries with troubled central banks.” For example, Venezuela’s currency is rapidly losing value. For people who stored their savings in crypto, there was greater protection against such rapid currency devaluations. “Of course, cryptocurrencies have their own instabilities, but they aren’t tied to actions by central banks and that’s particularly relevant in countries and economies where citizens don’t trust their governments and central banks,” he said.

“Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications.”–Bruce Weber and Andrew Novocin

Hosanagar expects the first wave of applications to be rolled out in “private” blockchains where a central authority such as a financial institution and its partners are the only ones with the permission to participate (as opposed to public, permissionless blockchains where participants are anonymous and there is no central authority). Applications in the private blockchains, he said, will be more secure and will offer some of the benefits of decentralized ledgers but will not be radically different from the way things work at present. However, over time, he expects smart contracts (self-executing contracts when requirements are met) to be offered on public blockchain networks like Ethereum. “When securities are traded, intermediaries provide trust, and they charge commissions. Blockchains can help provide such trust in a low-cost manner. But trade of securities is governed by securities laws. Smart contracts offer a way to ensure compliance with the laws. They have great potential because of their ability to reduce costs while being compliant,” says Hosanagar.

According to Weber and Novocin, one area ripe for transformation is reaching consensus on important benchmark rates and prices. At present, they point out, different proprietary indexes are used to determine interest rates and the price of many mainstream assets. Blockchain can transform this. “Think of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and the recent scandals involving manipulation of benchmark values when they are controlled by a single entity that may not be capable of detecting false or fraudulent data. Blockchain could provide greater transparency around the process of creating agreed upon reference prices, and allow more people to participate in the consensus process.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in some areas intermediaries will find their roles reduced as blockchain allows for automation through greater transparency and traceability. In other areas, intermediaries will find themselves well-placed to take advantage of changing needs of their clients, as firms will need help to manage the shift to new standards as well as the greater complexity of open and traceable blockchain infrastructure. Intermediaries in areas that could potentially be disrupted, they said, “should get involved with projects seeking to set the standards, so that they can stay informed and position themselves to profit from becoming the leaders in the operations of the new markets that will emerge.”

Kevin Werbach, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, and author of a forthcoming book The Blockchain and the New Architecture of Trust,  said that it’s usually not helpful to focus on what aspects of a major existing market will be “transformed” or “disrupted” by new technologies. Important technologies, he said, are far more likely to be integrated into the system than replace it. According to Werbach, while some firms will fail to make the transition and some new ones will take hold, “over the long-run, virtually every historic innovation that eliminated some forms of intermediation also created new forms.”

Blockchain will reduce the massive duplication of information that creates delays, conflicts and confusion in many aspects of financial services, Werbach added. For example, when a syndicate of lenders participates in a loan, having one shared ledger means they don’t all need to keep track of it independently. International payments and corporate stock records are other examples where there are huge inefficiencies due to duplicate record-keeping and intermediaries. “End users won’t see the changes in the deep plumbing of financial services, but it will allow new service providers to emerge and new products to be offered,” said Werbach.

Bumps Along the Way

Angela Walch, professor of law at St. Mary’s University School of Law and a research fellow at the Centre for Blockchain Technologies at University College London, offered another perspective. She said there is a lot of excitement about blockchain as a distributed ledger technology for the financial sector because many believe that it offers a better, more efficient and more resilient form of recordkeeping. However, making use of the blockchain is not as simple as just buying new software and running it. “Blockchain technology is, at core, group recordkeeping. To reap its full benefits, one needs all the relevant members of the group to join the system. This requires collaboration with and across businesses, which is a potentially big hurdle, and may be the hurdle that most limits adoption.”

Governance is the biggest challenge in decentralized organizations, said Weber and Novocin. Members participating in a blockchain-supported financial function may have misaligned incentives, and can end up in gridlock, or with a chaotic outcome. They cite the example of the ‘DAO Hack,’ which was the first prominent smart contract project on the Ethereum network to suffer a large loss of funds. The Ethereum community voted to conduct a hard fork (a radical change to the protocol that makes previously invalid blocks/transactions valid or vice-versa) — reversing the transactions after the hack and essentially refunding the DAO investors. This was in effect a breach of Ethereum’s immutability and it left a sizeable minority of the community bitterly dissatisfied. This group viewed the Ethereum community as forsaking its commitment to immutable, permanent records. They refused to acknowledge the hard fork, and maintained the original Ethereum blockchain, now known as Ethereum Classic (whereas the forked version supported by the Ethereum Foundation is simply Ethereum).

“The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”–Kartik Hosanagar

“Distributed organizations serving an open community need to take care to design their governance systems, incentive structures and decision-making processes to create consensus without unduly slowing down the decision-making,” said Weber and Novocin. “Scenario planning or war gaming are worth exploring at the beginning of blockchain projects. Forward planning enables organizations to swiftly respond in a predictable way that is supportive of stakeholders. Publicizing these plans in advance can also build trust and user confidence.”

Cryptocurrency Risks.

Werbach listed a variety of risks and vulnerabilities related to cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin has shown that the fundamental security of its proof-of-work system is sound, but it has major limitations such as limited scalability, massive energy usage and concentration of mining pools. There has been massive theft of cryptocurrencies from the centralized intermediaries that most people use to hold it, and massive fraud by promoters of initial coin offerings and other schemes. Manipulation is widespread on lightly-regulated cryptocurrency exchanges.

For example, roughly half of Bitcoin transactions are with Tether, a “stablecoin” that claims to be backed by U.S. dollars but has never been audited and is involved in highly suspicious behavior. Money laundering and other criminal activity is a serious problem if transactions do not require some check of real-world identities. “There are major efforts to address all of these risks and vulnerabilities. Some are technical, some are business opportunities, and some are regulatory questions. There must be recognition among cryptocurrency proponents that maturation of the industry will require cooperation in many cases with incumbents and regulators,” added Werbach.

Hosanagar cautions that while decentralization offers significant value — and a significant number of miners/validators must verify the transaction for it to be validated — it is still susceptible to collusion. If one or a few companies running lots of miners/validators in a small network collude, they can affect the sanctity of the network. The big risk with cryptocurrencies, he added, is that most activity as of today is ultimately tied to speculation. It’s important for cryptocurrencies to discover a “killer app soon so there is some underlying value created beyond speculation of its future value,” Hosanagar concludes.

The Way Ahead?

Given all these challenges, what is the current mindset in the financial sector towards adopting these new technologies? And, importantly, should one push for wide acceptance and deployment, or is there need for them to stabilize first?

According to Werbach, “It’s not an either-or” choice. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in general, he noted, are immature currently. However, there are some areas where they are already able to be deployed effectively. The best way to work through today’s problems, is “to build working systems and see where difficulties arise,” Werbach said. Looking ahead, integration with law, regulation and governance will be critical. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies represent a new form of trust, he added. They will only succeed if they become sufficiently trustworthy, beyond the basic security of the distributed ledgers. “Law, regulation and governance are three major mechanisms to produce trustworthy systems that scale up to society-wide adoption. We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables. I’m optimistic about that process over time.”

“We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables.”–Kevin Werbach

Walch noted that while there are claims that some consortia are putting ‘blockchain’ systems into production, in many cases it appears that what they are calling a blockchain bears little to no resemblance to the original blockchain technology behind Bitcoin. In many instances, she said, existing shared databases are being called ‘blockchain’ for marketing purposes. “If people do use something they call DLT or blockchain technology in important financial systems, my hope is that they make the decision based on actual capabilities of the tech rather than its widely hyped and generally overstated capabilities,” Walch said. “Permissioned blockchains, which are the variation most likely to be used for financial systems recordkeeping, are very different from public blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum. I hope that a more modest and accurate understanding of the actual characteristics of permissioned blockchains sinks in before they are widely adopted.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies or cryptoassets, Walch said that the financial sector’s interest is “less about recordkeeping and more about a new financial asset that it can make money off of.” She pointed out that at present there is no clarity on how power and accountability work in these systems. The ongoing operation of crypto systems and the value they embed and support is reliant on the competence of, and ethical behavior by, unaccountable software developers and validators. “The financial sector believes it understands and can manage the risks of cryptoassets, but I am less certain and worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class. This has been a bad mixture in the past,” says Walch. “I think it would be more responsible to let cryptosystems exist on their own for a while longer to let more of the kinks get worked out — if they can be; I’m not sure the governance ones can — rather than to rapidly integrate them into the financial system as we seem to be doing.”

“I … worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class.”–Angela Walch

Conversely, Weber and Novocin feel that the financial industry is cautious about the new DLT technology. According to them, to build confidence in new blockchain systems there needs to be transparency around how the processes work and what the benefits are, and in order to secure adoption, they need to be straightforward to use. “Pundits have drawn parallels to the open source Linux operating system. Although only a few individuals use Linux directly, it quietly runs the vast majority of servers and cloud processors across the world. Similarly, early adoption of blockchain will likely happen in the background of business processes. Companies should get involved now, even if it is just to experiment with the concepts. By gaining familiarity with these new tools, they will be ready as the space continues to develop.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in the next few years, many more businesses will implement private blockchains to improve the transparency and traceability of their financial operations, supply chains, inventory management systems and other internal business systems. Clearer standards will be adopted and a few high-profile projects will emerge. Meanwhile, they said, R&D will continue among the many decentralized blockchain projects to invent more scalable public ledgers whether it be blockchain, Tangle, Hashgraph or something new. “Work is needed on better and more efficient consensus models, whether it be a new form of proof-of-stake or proof-of-work, or something else. There are many established groups, startups, companies and research teams that organizations can join, partner with, or support in order to contribute to research and expand their capabilities.”




Bitcoin (Currency),Bitcoin,Finance (Industry),Industry (Organization Sector),Brad Templeton,Singularity University,Innovation,Internet,Web,Website,Google,Disruption,Technology,Technological,Money,Currency,Gold,Big Think,BigThink,BigThink.com,Education,Educational,Lifelong Learning,EDU

July 16, 2020

How the Blockchain Will Impact the Financial Sector

How the Blockchain Will Impact the Financial Sector.

Cryptocurrencies and their underlying blockchain technology are being touted as the next-big-thing after the creation of the internet. One area where these technologies are likely to have a major impact is the financial sector. The blockchain, as a form of distributed ledger technology (DLT), has the potential to transform well-established financial institutions and bring lower costs, faster execution of transactions, improved transparency, auditability of operations, and other benefits. Cryptocurrencies hold the promise of a new native digital asset class without a central authority.

So what do these technological developments mean for the various players in the sector and end users? “Blockchains have the potential to displace any business activity built on transactions occurring on traditional corporate databases, which is what underlies nearly every financial service function. Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications. DLT is therefore both a great opportunity and also a disruptive threat,” according to Bruce Weber, dean of Lerner College and business administration professor, and Andrew Novocin, professor of electrical and computer engineering, both at the University of Delaware.

Earlier this year, Weber, Novocin, and graduate student Jonathan Wood conducted a literature review on cryptocurrencies and DLT for the SWIFT Institute. Based on this review, the SWIFT institute recently issued a grant to conduct new research on DLT and cryptocurrencies in the financial sector. Weber and Novocin noted that just as disruptors like Amazon, Google, Facebook and Uber built software platforms and thriving businesses thanks to the connectivity provided by internet standards, next-generation startups will build new services and businesses with blockchains. “Many pundits expect blockchain, as a distributed technology, to become the foundation for new services and applications that have completely different rules from those running on hierarchical and controlled databases. Cryptocurrencies are an early example but many others will follow,” they added.

Kartik Hosanagar, a Wharton professor of marketing and operations, information and decisions, pointed out that the financial services sector is full of intermediaries such as banks that help create trust among transacting parties like lenders and borrowers. Blockchain, he said, is a mechanism to create trust without centralized control. “The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies, Hosanagar pointed out that most of the value today is tied to speculative buying rather than actual use cases. But having a currency without a central authority offers “certain unique kinds of protections especially in countries with troubled central banks.” For example, Venezuela’s currency is rapidly losing value. For people who stored their savings in crypto, there was greater protection against such rapid currency devaluations. “Of course, cryptocurrencies have their own instabilities, but they aren’t tied to actions by central banks and that’s particularly relevant in countries and economies where citizens don’t trust their governments and central banks,” he said.

“Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications.”–Bruce Weber and Andrew Novocin

Hosanagar expects the first wave of applications to be rolled out in “private” blockchains where a central authority such as a financial institution and its partners are the only ones with the permission to participate (as opposed to public, permissionless blockchains where participants are anonymous and there is no central authority). Applications in the private blockchains, he said, will be more secure and will offer some of the benefits of decentralized ledgers but will not be radically different from the way things work at present. However, over time, he expects smart contracts (self-executing contracts when requirements are met) to be offered on public blockchain networks like Ethereum. “When securities are traded, intermediaries provide trust, and they charge commissions. Blockchains can help provide such trust in a low-cost manner. But trade of securities is governed by securities laws. Smart contracts offer a way to ensure compliance with the laws. They have great potential because of their ability to reduce costs while being compliant,” says Hosanagar.

According to Weber and Novocin, one area ripe for transformation is reaching consensus on important benchmark rates and prices. At present, they point out, different proprietary indexes are used to determine interest rates and the price of many mainstream assets. Blockchain can transform this. “Think of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and the recent scandals involving manipulation of benchmark values when they are controlled by a single entity that may not be capable of detecting false or fraudulent data. Blockchain could provide greater transparency around the process of creating agreed upon reference prices, and allow more people to participate in the consensus process.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in some areas intermediaries will find their roles reduced as blockchain allows for automation through greater transparency and traceability. In other areas, intermediaries will find themselves well-placed to take advantage of changing needs of their clients, as firms will need help to manage the shift to new standards as well as the greater complexity of open and traceable blockchain infrastructure. Intermediaries in areas that could potentially be disrupted, they said, “should get involved with projects seeking to set the standards, so that they can stay informed and position themselves to profit from becoming the leaders in the operations of the new markets that will emerge.”

Kevin Werbach, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, and author of a forthcoming book The Blockchain and the New Architecture of Trust,  said that it’s usually not helpful to focus on what aspects of a major existing market will be “transformed” or “disrupted” by new technologies. Important technologies, he said, are far more likely to be integrated into the system than replace it. According to Werbach, while some firms will fail to make the transition and some new ones will take hold, “over the long-run, virtually every historic innovation that eliminated some forms of intermediation also created new forms.”


Blockchain will reduce the massive duplication of information that creates delays, conflicts and confusion in many aspects of financial services, Werbach added. For example, when a syndicate of lenders participates in a loan, having one shared ledger means they don’t all need to keep track of it independently. International payments and corporate stock records are other examples where there are huge inefficiencies due to duplicate record-keeping and intermediaries. “End users won’t see the changes in the deep plumbing of financial services, but it will allow new service providers to emerge and new products to be offered,” said Werbach.

Bumps Along the Way

Angela Walch, professor of law at St. Mary’s University School of Law and a research fellow at the Centre for Blockchain Technologies at University College London, offered another perspective. She said there is a lot of excitement about blockchain as a distributed ledger technology for the financial sector because many believe that it offers a better, more efficient and more resilient form of recordkeeping. However, making use of the blockchain is not as simple as just buying new software and running it. “Blockchain technology is, at core, group recordkeeping. To reap its full benefits, one needs all the relevant members of the group to join the system. This requires collaboration with and across businesses, which is a potentially big hurdle, and may be the hurdle that most limits adoption.”

Governance is the biggest challenge in decentralized organizations, said Weber and Novocin. Members participating in a blockchain-supported financial function may have misaligned incentives, and can end up in gridlock, or with a chaotic outcome. They cite the example of the ‘DAO Hack,’ which was the first prominent smart contract project on the Ethereum network to suffer a large loss of funds. The Ethereum community voted to conduct a hard fork (a radical change to the protocol that makes previously invalid blocks/transactions valid or vice-versa) — reversing the transactions after the hack and essentially refunding the DAO investors. This was in effect a breach of Ethereum’s immutability and it left a sizeable minority of the community bitterly dissatisfied. This group viewed the Ethereum community as forsaking its commitment to immutable, permanent records. They refused to acknowledge the hard fork, and maintained the original Ethereum blockchain, now known as Ethereum Classic (whereas the forked version supported by the Ethereum Foundation is simply Ethereum).

“The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”–Kartik Hosanagar

“Distributed organizations serving an open community need to take care to design their governance systems, incentive structures and decision-making processes to create consensus without unduly slowing down the decision-making,” said Weber and Novocin. “Scenario planning or war gaming are worth exploring at the beginning of blockchain projects. Forward planning enables organizations to swiftly respond in a predictable way that is supportive of stakeholders. Publicizing these plans in advance can also build trust and user confidence.”

Cryptocurrency Risks.

Werbach listed a variety of risks and vulnerabilities related to cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin has shown that the fundamental security of its proof-of-work system is sound, but it has major limitations such as limited scalability, massive energy usage and concentration of mining pools. There has been massive theft of cryptocurrencies from the centralized intermediaries that most people use to hold it, and massive fraud by promoters of initial coin offerings and other schemes. Manipulation is widespread on lightly-regulated cryptocurrency exchanges.

For example, roughly half of Bitcoin transactions are with Tether, a “stablecoin” that claims to be backed by U.S. dollars but has never been audited and is involved in highly suspicious behavior. Money laundering and other criminal activity is a serious problem if transactions do not require some check of real-world identities. “There are major efforts to address all of these risks and vulnerabilities. Some are technical, some are business opportunities, and some are regulatory questions. There must be recognition among cryptocurrency proponents that maturation of the industry will require cooperation in many cases with incumbents and regulators,” added Werbach.

Hosanagar cautions that while decentralization offers significant value — and a significant number of miners/validators must verify the transaction for it to be validated — it is still susceptible to collusion. If one or a few companies running lots of miners/validators in a small network collude, they can affect the sanctity of the network. The big risk with cryptocurrencies, he added, is that most activity as of today is ultimately tied to speculation. It’s important for cryptocurrencies to discover a “killer app soon so there is some underlying value created beyond speculation of its future value,” Hosanagar concludes.

The Way Ahead?

Given all these challenges, what is the current mindset in the financial sector towards adopting these new technologies? And, importantly, should one push for wide acceptance and deployment, or is there need for them to stabilize first?

According to Werbach, “It’s not an either-or” choice. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in general, he noted, are immature currently. However, there are some areas where they are already able to be deployed effectively. The best way to work through today’s problems, is “to build working systems and see where difficulties arise,” Werbach said. Looking ahead, integration with law, regulation and governance will be critical. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies represent a new form of trust, he added. They will only succeed if they become sufficiently trustworthy, beyond the basic security of the distributed ledgers. “Law, regulation and governance are three major mechanisms to produce trustworthy systems that scale up to society-wide adoption. We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables. I’m optimistic about that process over time.”

“We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables.”–Kevin Werbach

Walch noted that while there are claims that some consortia are putting ‘blockchain’ systems into production, in many cases it appears that what they are calling a blockchain bears little to no resemblance to the original blockchain technology behind Bitcoin. In many instances, she said, existing shared databases are being called ‘blockchain’ for marketing purposes. “If people do use something they call DLT or blockchain technology in important financial systems, my hope is that they make the decision based on actual capabilities of the tech rather than its widely hyped and generally overstated capabilities,” Walch said. “Permissioned blockchains, which are the variation most likely to be used for financial systems recordkeeping, are very different from public blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum. I hope that a more modest and accurate understanding of the actual characteristics of permissioned blockchains sinks in before they are widely adopted.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies or cryptoassets, Walch said that the financial sector’s interest is “less about recordkeeping and more about a new financial asset that it can make money off of.” She pointed out that at present there is no clarity on how power and accountability work in these systems. The ongoing operation of crypto systems and the value they embed and support is reliant on the competence of, and ethical behavior by, unaccountable software developers and validators. “The financial sector believes it understands and can manage the risks of cryptoassets, but I am less certain and worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class. This has been a bad mixture in the past,” says Walch. “I think it would be more responsible to let cryptosystems exist on their own for a while longer to let more of the kinks get worked out — if they can be; I’m not sure the governance ones can — rather than to rapidly integrate them into the financial system as we seem to be doing.”

“I … worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class.”–Angela Walch

Conversely, Weber and Novocin feel that the financial industry is cautious about the new DLT technology. According to them, to build confidence in new blockchain systems there needs to be transparency around how the processes work and what the benefits are, and in order to secure adoption, they need to be straightforward to use. “Pundits have drawn parallels to the open source Linux operating system. Although only a few individuals use Linux directly, it quietly runs the vast majority of servers and cloud processors across the world. Similarly, early adoption of blockchain will likely happen in the background of business processes. Companies should get involved now, even if it is just to experiment with the concepts. By gaining familiarity with these new tools, they will be ready as the space continues to develop.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in the next few years, many more businesses will implement private blockchains to improve the transparency and traceability of their financial operations, supply chains, inventory management systems and other internal business systems. Clearer standards will be adopted and a few high-profile projects will emerge. Meanwhile, they said, R&D will continue among the many decentralized blockchain projects to invent more scalable public ledgers whether it be blockchain, Tangle, Hashgraph or something new. “Work is needed on better and more efficient consensus models, whether it be a new form of proof-of-stake or proof-of-work, or something else. There are many established groups, startups, companies and research teams that organizations can join, partner with, or support in order to contribute to research and expand their capabilities.”




Bitcoin (Currency),Bitcoin,Finance (Industry),Industry (Organization Sector),Brad Templeton,Singularity University,Innovation,Internet,Web,Website,Google,Disruption,Technology,Technological,Money,Currency,Gold,Big Think,BigThink,BigThink.com,Education,Educational,Lifelong Learning,EDU

July 16, 2020

How to Ask Rich People for Money

How to Ask Rich People for Money.

Fundraising for charity is an important part of any nonprofit group's work. In the U.S. alone, donors gave almost $287 billion in 2011. Many people who work for nonprofits feel uncomfortable asking donors for money, but without their help most nonprofit groups would not be able to carry out their missions. Learning how to effectively and respectfully ask wealthy individuals for money can help you ensure your charity or favorite nonprofit, federally recognized as 501 (c) (3), group prospers and is able to help those in need.

Part 1 Planning Your Donation Request
1. Compile a list of donors. Before you begin asking for money, it's best to have an idea of who you're going to ask for donations. If you're going door-to-door, that may be as simple as deciding which neighborhood(s) to work in. If you're soliciting donations by phone or by mail, though, you'll need a list of prospective donors to contact.
If you can identify past donors on your list of people to call or write to, you may want to prioritize those individuals as "best bets" - these are people who, given their history of donating in the past, will most likely contribute again to your cause.
Try to identify which people on your list are the most financially stable. You can do this by interacting with the individual to get a sense of his or her finances, or if going door-to-door, look at the houses residents live in and the cars in their driveways. People with large, elaborate homes or flashy sports cars most likely have more disposable income. (Though of course this doesn't guarantee that they will give donations.)
You can also look for potential donors by their other areas of spending. For example, does the prospective donor attend fundraisers for other organizations or individuals? If so, that prospective donor probably has the means to donate to your organization, if properly persuaded.
Consider using analytical software and services, such as Donor Search, to identify which potential donors are more wealthy and more likely to donate.
Remember to think "ABC" when identifying donors: Able to make a gift, Belief (known or potential) in your cause, and Contact/Connection with your organization.
2. Get to know your donors. If your organization has dealt with donors in the past, you or a colleague will probably know what strategies work best in making your appeal. Some people want to know how the money from last year was spent, while others may simply want to know how much is needed. Certain donors may have fears or reservations about donating, and it's important to learn to recognize those fears/reservations so you can address them in advance.
Some donors may need to hear particular terms or phrases in order to be persuaded to donate. If you know this to be the case, make some indication of this on your list so that when you call or approach that person, you'll know what to say.
Any time a donor seems reluctant to give but gives anyway, make a note of that situation on your list or in that donor's file (if you have one). Listen to what the individual says when he or she is reluctant, and try to find ways to assuage those fears - not just for this year's fundraiser, but for future years as well.
Be aware that many well-known philanthropists hire other individuals to manage donations and contributions. Because of this, you may not get to speak to the actual donor himself/herself. However, the employees hired by a philanthropist probably have the same concerns that the philanthropist does, and you may have some luck appealing to the philanthropist's interests through his or her employees.
3. Find ways to present your organization. People who have donated to your organization will no doubt be familiar with who you are (as an organization) and what you do. But what about people who have never donated before? How will you describe what you do to an outsider? This is important, as it may determine whether the individual will listen to the rest of your pitch. If possible, try to compile some data on what your organization has done in the past, the problems you hope to address after this fundraising drive, and how that prospective donation would help your cause.
Try to present your organization in a way that both explains what you do while also highlighting the issue you seek to change. For example, you might say something like, "Did you know that [the issue your organization addresses] affects a significant portion of the city, and we are the only organization solely committed to addressing these issues in a comprehensive way?"
It's not a requirement to have data compiled, but for individuals who aren't familiar with your organization, it may be very helpful to know that information.
Consider printing out a brochure or having a reusable chart to illustrate both the improvements you've made and the improvements you hope to make.
Think about what you might say if someone doesn't understand your organization's goals, or what you might say if someone was dismissive of your organization. Try putting yourself in those shoes - imagining that you were someone who didn't want to help the organization - and what you might say to the organization. Then imagine how you might respond to hearing those words.
The better your donor base understands your organization - and the better you understand your donors - the more likely you'll be to build a long-term relationship with that donor.
4. Practice your appeal. One of the best things you can do to strengthen your appeal for donations is to practice what you're going to say. That doesn't just mean knowing how to actually ask for money, but also knowing how to initiate the conversation, practicing scenarios, anticipating potential responses, and knowing how to direct (or re-direct) the conversation.
Remember that the best appeal will educate the potential donor, rather than making a simple sales pitch.
Practice your appeal out loud. Get comfortable with the speech, and learn to adapt it to your own style of speaking. Make it your own speech, and try to make it feel comfortable and unrehearsed (even though this may take a lot of rehearsal).
Practice in front of a mirror if you will be interacting with donors face-to-face.
Try recording yourself, either with a tape recorder or on video, and study your mannerisms and your speech patterns. Does it sound honest? Do your vocal patterns and your physical mannerisms communicate the message of your organization, and the urgency of what you're trying to solve?

Part 2 Asking for Donations.
1. Start a conversation. Don't just call and start running in with your pitch. Work on creating a dialogue with the potential donor, which may mean making some polite small talk at the start. It can be as simple as asking the person how his or her day is going. Anything to start a conversation should help disarm the individual, and make the person realize that you're a caring and concerned member of the community.
If the prospective donor is a known philanthropist, he or she may prefer to have someone who heads the foundation ask for a donation. Statistically, donors are more likely to give money to a recognizable figure affiliated with an organization, rather than to a fundraiser who contacts them on the organization's behalf.
Initiate the conversation by getting the prospective donor to acknowledge an existing problem. If you're raising money for a local organization, you might open the conversation by asking what he or she thinks is the greatest crisis facing your region.
2. Make your intentions known. You shouldn't just introduce yourself by asking for money, but you should make your intentions known near the end of your small talk. Start by asking how the person is doing, or commenting on the weather, and then use that as a lead-in to say, "I'm working with _______, and we're trying to help _______ be able to ________."
If the individual feels like you're just having an aimless conversation and then suddenly he or she is asked for money, it may create tension and cause the person to feel like you're shaking them down. Be calm, friendly, and casual, but don't drag your feet about making it clear that you have a purpose.
3. Let the other person speak. Chances are, if you launch into your usual appeal to a person on the street who's never donated before, that person will walk away. But if you have created a dialogue, and made room for the other person to speak, you may be able to get that individual to feel engaged and a part of the solution.
Try asking a Question : . Say something like, "What do you think is the biggest problem our community faces?" Once the person has answered, instead of simply saying, "Yes, you're right. Will you consider donating?" try a more nuanced approach. After the person says what he or she sees as the problem, just say, "How interesting!" and keep silent while remaining interested.
People fear silence, and the person will probably fill that gap by elaborating on why that issue is important. That potential donor may go on to talk about how a family member has been affected by those issues. This gives you an in to take the specific concern he/she has and run with it. It's no longer an abstract concern, but a specific problem that may have affected the individual personally.
4. Make a specific request. If you leave a donation appeal open-ended, the person may not end up donating, or may only give a few dollars. But if you ask for a specific amount, it takes a lot of guess work out of the equation for that individual, and makes it easier to commit to your request. For example, if the person seems interested, say something like, "Well, we can make a difference. For just _____ dollars, you can help accomplish ___________."
Another way to ask for a specific amount is to put the ball in their court. Ask something like, "Would you consider a gift of _____?" or "Is ______ something you'd be willing to consider to help tackle the problem of __________?"
5. Be persistent. Many people will say no right off the bat, but others may simply need to be persuaded a bit more. Perhaps someone might say that the amount you requested is too high. If that happens, let the person know that any donation amount would be a big help, and ask if there's a slightly lower amount that the person would be willing/able to donate.
Don't be aggressive with your appeal, but do be insistent that your cause is worthy and that any donation amount would help that cause.
6. Thank the person either way. If the individual is willing to donate, then it's cause for celebration. You can thank the person and let him or her know that that donation will go a long way towards solving or addressing the issue at hand. But even if the person is not interested in donating, you should still be polite and appreciative of their time. Simply say, "Well, thank you for your time and have a wonderful day."
Expressing gratitude and courtesy can go a long way. Just because someone isn't interested in donating, that doesn't mean the situation won't change. Perhaps next year the people who said no will have heard or read more about your organization, or perhaps the individual will have been personally affected by the issue you're seeking to address. Making a good impression now, even when turned down, may be what helps you get a donation next year.
7. Follow up with donors. If someone gave a donation, you should absolutely express gratitude. Send the donor a thank-you letter and a gift receipt (in case they want to write it off on their taxes or simply have a record of the donation). It's best to send these items as quickly as possible so that the donor knows that the contribution was greatly appreciated and will be put to good use.

Community Q&A.

Question : How do I ask a rich person for 50,000 dollars?
Answer : Follow the instructions listed in the article above. However, they will likely say no.
Question : How can I get money if I need it urgently?
Answer : Get a job, start a blog, make something, or ask for a small loan.
Question : How can I get help with my power bills and the foreclosure on my house?
Answer : There are probably social services nearby that can help.
Question : How can I raise money for my wedding?
Answer : Ask friends and family members if they are willing to pitch in some money to help fund your marriage. In return, send them invitations.
Question : How can I find money for my daughter's marriage?
Answer : Loans, relatives, friends, or you could try planning a wedding that won't cost you much!
Question : Where can you apply for a small business loan with bad credit?
Answer : You can try becoming a member of a credit union and try for a loan there.
Question : How do I ask for money if I am about to be homeless with an autistic son?
Answer : Ask family and friends, and tell them your situation. Look for government programs that can help, and depending on the age of your son, you may be able to get financial help for him. You can also ask family and friends if the two of you can stay with them while you get back on your feet. That way, you have an address while you look for a job.
Question : I need a loan to deal with a parent's sickness, what can I do?
Answer : Loans are not the only solution to sickness, there are organizations that provide affordable medical care. Search for these in your area. You might also consider launching a donation campaign through Kickstarter or another fundraising website.
Question : How can someone fund me to help me spread the word of God?
Answer : Try doing a simple fundraiser, like a lemonade stand or a car wash.

Tips.

Many people are more motivated to help you with money if they sympathize with your goals or interests. Try to tailor your appeal to each individual donor, based on how that donor seems to respond to the issues you address.
Always send a thank-you note to your donors, regardless of how much they sent you.

July 02, 2020

How to Find a Good Real Estate Agent.

How to Find a Good Real Estate Agent.

Whether you're buying or selling a property, a quality real estate agent is vital to make the process run smoothly. Seek out an agent with excellent credentials and references. Meet with a handful of agents to make sure any Question : s you have are answered. Watch out for potential red flags. Agents who charge very low costs or only work part-time may not be reliable.

Part 1 Finding an Agent with the Right Credentials.
1. Look for someone who does at least 1 or 2 transactions every month. When reviewing an agent's credentials, look for someone who's been working in sales, negotiations, and contracts for at least five years, preferably in real estate or property management. Five years experience and a regular stream of transactions means an agent likely has a good feel for the process and can help find you the best deals.
Agents with less experience can still be a good choice if they know you and the area well, especially if they demonstrate a great work ethic and strong customer service skills.
2. Find someone who works in your area. The agent you work with should know the area in which you're looking to buy or sell. Agents who live and work in your area will be aware of the best neighborhoods and trends regarding prices. A local agent will also know small details, like where the best schools are, commute times, and so on.
3. Check the agent's license. Obviously, you want an agent who's properly licensed. Every state should have a list of licensed agents online. While making a list of agents to contact, check to ensure every agent you interview has a legal license to buy and sell real estate in your state. You can also see the continuing education classes they are taking which will help you to know what their focus is.
4. Look for awards and honors to help narrow your choices. Check a real estate's website and resume for awards, honors, and other signs of recognition. Things like a "Realtor of the Year" award can be a sign of a quality agent who's likely to exceed your personal needs. However, realize that it may also indicate a very busy Realtor who may not be the right choice if you'd like more individual attention and you may need to base your decision on other indicators.
5. Ask friends and family members for referrals. If you know someone who recently bought or sold a home, reach out to them. Friends and family members are likely to give you honest assessments of their experience with a particular agent.
However, be cautious about choosing an agent ONLY because a friend or family member recommended them. Your real estate needs and what you desire in a Realtor may be different so make sure you understand what exactly your friends or family's objectives were and what specifically they liked about their Realtor. Ask about any hesitations the person has recommending the agent as well. This way, you'll get a sense if the agent has any major flaws that would be a deal breaker for you.

Part 2 Interviewing Real Estate Agents.
1. Ask how long they've been in business. When interviewing a real estate agent, one of the first Question : s to ask is how long they've been handling sales, contracts and negotiations for clients. They should be able to answer the Question :  quickly and accurately. Remember, while five years of experience is ideal, someone with less experience who otherwise meets your needs may still work if you've developed a good rapport with them.
Also, ask how long the agent's been working in your area. Even better, ask if they live near the area. An agent with extensive experience may not be the best choice if they are not familiar with your particular area.
2. Ask if they work alone or in a team. Agents who work alone are best if you want a lot of personal contact with the agent. Agents who work on a team are good if you like the idea of specialists for each step. The agent you hire may actually be a team leader who will then introduce you to a transaction coordinator, assistant, or buyer's agent who will handle those parts of the transaction.
Agents who work alone are more likely to walk you through each step themselves and more likely to reach out frequently by phone or even in person.
3. Ask about any planned vacations or other commitments. Real estate often requires quick action and response time. If a Realtor has a vacation planned soon or some other commitment that might interfere with their availability, you need to decide whether this will affect you buying or selling a property. Make sure they have someone to help you out if they will have an extended absence.
4. Ask about what other properties they've sold. In addition to looking at current properties online, have the agent show you some of the other properties they've sold. Make sure these properties are similar to what you're looking to buy or sell. It's vital to pick an agent who works with the right properties for your needs. If the agent is typically used to working at a higher, or lower, price point, they may not understand your particular transaction as well.
If you're selling a home, ask where the home will be featured. The main places you'll need to be is on the MLS and the big online sites (Realtor.com, Zillow, Trulia, etc...). Other sites, including the agent's personal website aren't as important. Also, beware of an agent who wants to keep your house off the MLS for any reason. Unless you are selling a luxury home, the MLS is where most buyers, and their agents, are. "Pocket" listings or similar are generally suggested when an agent wants to market your house first to their own investor clients or to others in their brokerage, but limiting the exposure is almost never a good option for you as a seller.
5. Contact their recent clients. Ask for a list of references after meeting with an agent. A quality agent will not hesitate to hand you a list of recent clients for you to call to ask about their experience. Call a few references for every agent you interview to make sure they have stellar reviews. Don't put too much stock in online reviews. Most people will give a 5 star review in exchange for a Starbucks gift card and a single bad review may not tell the whole story (ask the agent if you're concerned).
6. Make sure you get along with the agent. Chemistry is important in real estate. If you're working with someone who you don't get along with, this can cause unnecessary tension during an already stressful process. Make sure you click with the agent and feel comfortable in their presence.

Part 3 Watching for Red Flags.
1. Avoid agents who don't answer their phone or return calls. A good real estate agent considers their work a full-time job and knows that weekends and evenings can be the busiest times. In real estate, every day is a "business day" and if crucial items come up on evenings or weekends, you need an agent whom you can reach. An agent who isn't available throughout the day may not be your best option.
If an agent does not answer during "regular business hours," you may have an agent who is doing real estate on the side. Their "day job" may not allow them to give you the attention you deserve.
Conversely, an agent who doesn't answer evening or weekend calls, or worse yet, has a voicemail that states anything about "the next business day," may not be available when you need them.
2. Stay away from agents who don't know the area. If an agent does not work in your area, or cannot readily provide information about the area, this is a bad sign. A quality agent should be able to quickly rattle off things like neighborhoods, general price ranges, nearby businesses, and so on. If an agent cannot provide specific details about an area, you may want to find someone who knows it better.
3. Check that lower commissions don't mean fewer services. Typical commissions are usually between five and seven percent. When agent offers a lower commission, make sure they aren't offering you less service than higher commissioned agents. Before signing a contract, verify that all of their promises are in writing.
When buying, you don't usually have to worry about the commission because the seller generally pays both sides (buyer and seller) so focus instead on customer service and contract knowledge.

Community Q&A

Question : I'm looking for a great real estate agent in Bergen County, NJ. How do I find someone who is experienced with contingency, since we are selling and buying?
Answer : Your best option is to ask someone you know for a recommendation. Another option is to drive around your community to see which agents are listed on for sale signs so that you can contact them. You can also search for agents online. Ask your potential agents if they have experience working with buyers who are also selling a home. Finally, ask them for references from previous clients who've gone through the same process.
Question : I'm a first-time home buyer. What should I expect from a realtor, other than finding me a home?
Answer : First-time home buyers have some special benefits when buying a home. Your agent should spend time reviewing these, your needs and wants, and discussing your financial strength (down payment, deposit money, the closing cost, etc). On top of that, you have to consider property taxes and home insurance. Once you're comfortable, you'll be referred to a mortgage broker, if you don't already have one. Once you get pre-approval, the search for the home with the best fit for your finances and needs will begin.
Question : How do you tell an agent you do not want their services any longer?
Answer : Let them know over the phone you want to go with a different agent. Thank them for their time, but explain to them it's simply not working out.
Question : My realtor agent is being really pushy. How can I tell if they are only in it for the money?
Answer : A pushy agent is usually a bad sign. A good agent will want you to have a good experience renting from them and will be willing to give you time to think it over.
Question : How much does a real estate agent cost?
Answer : If you are listing your property then the listing agent charges a percentage commission to list, market and advertise, show, and negotiate through the process of selling your home. If you are a buyer looking for a home with a buyer's agent, you don't pay your real estate agent directly. The buyer's agent receives their commission through the seller's transaction for getting a buyer for their home which is based on the percentage set by the listing agent.
Question : How can I get a 3-month contract for selling my home? It is hard to find anyone willing to work hard enough to do this?
Question : Answer : The length of listing agreement is negotiable between you and the real estate brokerage. Since you are the owner and you are the one who is hiring and paying, it should be your decision as to how long you want to be in agreement. However, allow sufficient time to market your property and get you good price. If your realtor is not doing as agreed or if you are not satisfied (obviously some solid reasons for that), you can always cancel or terminate your listing. Some agents only suspend your listing, hoping to win back your listing. Insist for getting it terminated and find the right agent.
Question : Is it advisable to use the same agent to sell your home as well as buy a home?
Answer : It can be a big benefit because your listing agent will have all of the necessary information to keep the buying side of the new home going along smoothly. A lot of agents who have a seller who is also buying with them will negotiate their commission differently since they will be getting paid on two sides.

Tips.

If the Realtor has an assistant, this could mean they'll have more time to focus on your needs rather than paperwork. However, make sure that the assistant won't be undertaking work that you expect to have done by your agent.

July 02, 2020