How Warren Buffett Makes Decisions – The Secret to His Investing Success.

How Warren Buffett Makes Decisions – The Secret to His Investing Success.

By Michael Lewis.

Warren Buffett is considered by many to be the most successful stock investor ever. Despite the occasional mistake, Buffett’s investing strategies are unrivaled. In 1956, at age 26, his net worth was estimated at $140,000. MarketWatch estimated his net worth at the end of 2016 to be $73.1 billion, an astounding compound annual growth rate of 24.5%. By contrast, the S&P 500 has grown at an average rate of 6.79% and most mutual funds have failed to equal the annual S&P 500 return consistently.

Buffett has achieved these returns while most of his competition failed. According to John Bogle, one of the founders and former Chairman of The Vanguard Group, “The evidence is compelling that equity fund returns lag the stock market by a substantial amount, largely accounted for by cost, and that fund investor returns lag fund returns by a substantial amount, largely accounted for by counterproductive market timing and fund selection.”

Since the evidence shows that Buffet has been an exceptional investor, market observers and psychologists have searched for an explanation to his success. Why has Warren Buffett achieved extraordinary gains compared to his peers? What is his secret?

A Long-Term Perspective. Why Some People Are More Successful Than Others.
Philosophers and scientists have long sought to determine why some people are more successful than others at building wealth. Their findings are varied and often contradictory.

For centuries, people believed their fate, including wealth and status, depended upon the capricious favor of pagan gods – more specifically, the favor of Tyche (Greek) or Fortuna (Roman). Expansion of the Judeo-Christian-Islamic religions and their concepts of “free will” led to the general belief that individuals could control their destiny through their actions, or lack thereof.

Modern science, specifically psychology and neuroscience, advanced a theory of biological determinants that control human decisions and actions. This theory suggests that free will might not be as “free” as previously thought. In other words, we may be predisposed to certain behaviors that affect the ways we process information and make decisions.

Evolutionary biologists and psychologists have developed a variety of different theories to explain human decision-making. Some claim that the ability to make superior decisions with favorable outcomes is the result of eons of natural selection, which favors individuals with exceptional genetics, such as those with high IQs.

Despite the perception that a high IQ is necessary for building wealth, study after study indicates that the link between super-intelligence and financial success is dubious at best:

Dr. Jay Zagorsky’s study in the Intelligence Journal found no strong relationship between total wealth and intelligence: “People don’t become rich just because they are smart.”
Mensa members rank in the top 2% of the brightest people on earth, but most are not rich and are “certainly not the top 1% financially,” according to an organization spokesperson. A study by Eleanor Laise of the Mensa Investment Club noted that the fund averaged 2.5% per annum for a 15-year period, while the S&P 500 averaged 15.3% during the same time. One member admitted that “we can screw up faster than anyone,” while another described their investment strategy as “buy low, sell lower.”
Buffett has never claimed to be a genius. When asked what he would teach the next generation of investors at the 2009 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, he replied, “In the investing business, if you have an IQ of 150, sell 30 points to someone else. You do not need to be a genius . . . It’s not a complicated game; you don’t need to understand math. It’s simple, but not easy.”

He later expanded the thought: “If calculus or algebra were required to be a great investor, I’d have to go back to delivering newspapers.”

Economists’ Rational Man.
Economists have historically based their models upon the presumption that humans make logical decisions. In other words, a person faced with a choice balances certainties against risks. The theory of expected value presumes that people facing choices will choose the one that has the largest combination of expected success (probability) and value (impact).

A rational person would always model the industrious ant in Aesop’s fable, not the insouciant grasshopper. The idea that people would make decisions contrary to their interests is inconceivable to economists.

To be fair, most economists recognize the flaws in their models. Swedish economist Lars Syll notes that “a theoretical model is nothing more than an argument that a set of conclusions follows from a fixed set of assumptions.”

Economists presume stable systems and simple assumptions, while the real world is in constant flux. Paraphrasing H.L Mencken’s famous quote, there is always a simple economic model [well-known solution] for every human problem. This notion is neat, plausible, and wrong.

Psychologists’ Natural Man.
According to Harvard professor Daniel Lieberman, humans are naturally inclined to seek the solutions that require the least expenditure of energy.

In the real world, we have difficulty deferring immediate gratification for future security, selecting investments best suited to our long-term goals and risk profile, and acting in our best financial interests. Psychological research suggests that the difficulty is rooted in our brains – how we think and make decisions.

Researchers Susan Fiske and Shelley Taylor postulate that humans are “cognitive misers,” preferring to do as little thinking as possible. The brain uses more energy than any other human organ, accounting for up to 20% of the body’s total intake.

When decisions involve issues more remote from our current state in distance or time, there is a tendency to defer making a choice. This impulse accounts for the failure of people to save in the present since the payoff is years in the future.

As far as we know, Mr. Buffett’ brain is similar to other investors and he experiences the same impulses and anxieties as others. While he experiences the tensions that arise in everyone when making decisions, he has learned to control impulses and make reasoned, rational decisions.

Our Two-Brain System.
The studies by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky provide new insight into decision-making, perhaps the key to Buffett’s success. They theorize that each human uses two systems of mental processing (System 1 and System 2) that work together seamlessly most of the time. Khaneman’s book, “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” outlines these two systems.

System 1 – Think Fast.
System 1, also referred to as the “emotional brain,” developed as the limbic system in the brain of early humans. Sometimes called the “mammalian brain,” it includes the amygdala, the organ where emotions and memories arise.

Neuroscientist Paul MacLean hypothesized that the limbic system was one of the first steps in the evolution of the human brain, developed as part of its fight or flight circuitry. Through necessity, our primitive ancestors had to react quickly to danger when seconds could mean escape or death.

The emotional brain is always active, capable of making quick decisions with scant information and conscious effort. It continuously makes and remakes models – heuristic frames – of the world around it, relying on the senses and memories of past events.

For example, an experienced driver coordinates steering and speed of an automobile on an empty highway almost effortlessly, even casually. The driver can simultaneously carry on conversations with passengers or listen to the radio without losing control of the vehicle. The driver is relying on the decisions of System 1.

The emotional brain is also the source of intuition, that “inner voice” or gut feeling we sometimes get without being consciously aware of the underlying reasons for its occurrence. We rely primarily on this system for the hundreds of everyday decisions we make – what to wear, where to sit, identifying a friend. Paradoxically, System 1 is a source of creativity as well as habits.

System 2 – Think Slow.
System 2, also called the “logical brain,” is slower, more deliberate, and analytical, rationally balancing the benefits and costs of each choice using all the available information.

System 2 decisions take place in the latest evolutionary addition to the brain – the neocortex. It is believed to be the center of humans’ extraordinary cognitive activity. System 2 was slower to evolve in humans and requires more energy to exercise, indicating the old saw “Thinking is hard” is a fact.

Kahneman characterizes System 2 as “the conscious, reasoning self that has beliefs, makes choices, and decides what to think about and do.” It is in charge of decisions about the future, while System 1 is more active in the moment. While our emotional brain can generate complex patterns of ideas, it is also freewheeling, impulsive, and often inappropriate.

Fortunately, System 1 works well most of the time; its models of everyday situations are accurate, its short-term predictions are usually correct, and its initial reactions to challenges are swift and mostly appropriate.

System 2 is more controlled, rule-based, and analytical, continuously monitoring the quality of the answers provided by System 1. Our logical brain becomes active when it needs to override an automatic judgment of System 1.

For example, the earlier driver proceeding casually down the road is more focused when passing a semi-truck on a narrow two-lane road or in heavy traffic, actively processing the changing conditions and responding with deliberate actions. His or her mental effort is accompanied by detectable physical changes, such as tensed muscles, increased heart rate, and dilated pupils. In these circumstances, System 2 is in charge.

The logical brain normally functions in low-effort mode, always in reserve until System 1 encounters a problem it cannot solve or is required to act in a way that doesn’t come naturally. Solving for the product of 37 x 82 requires the deliberate processes of System 2, while the answer to a simple addition problem, such as the sum of 2 + 2, is a System 1 function. The answer is not calculated, but summoned from memory.

Neuropsychologists Abigail Baird and Jonathan Fugelsang’s 2004 study indicates that System 2 does not fully develop until adulthood. Their findings suggest the reason that adolescents are more likely to engage in risky behavior is because they lack the mental hardware to weigh decisions rationally. For most people, the two systems work together seamlessly, transitioning from one to the other as needed.

The Buffett Style.
The Oracle of Omaha’s key to investing is understanding and coordinating the two systems of decision-making. Buffett relies upon System 1 to intuitively seek out investments he finds attractive and understands.

When deciding on a possible investment, he recommends, “If you need a computer or a calculator to decide whether to invest, then don’t do it – invest in something that shouts at you – if it is not obvious, walk away . . . If you don’t know the business, the financials won’t help at all.”

Avoid the Traps of Thinking Fast.
Master investors like Buffett simplify their decisions by relying upon System 1, and it serves them well in most cases. However, they recognize that their emotional decision-making system is also prone to biases and errors, including:

Mental Framing.
Our brains, equipped with millions of sensory inputs, create interpretive mental “frames” or filters to make sense of data. These mental filters help us understand and respond to the events around us. Framing is a heuristic – a mental shortcut – that provides a quick, easy way to process information. Unfortunately, framing can also provide a limited, simplistic view of reality that can lead to flawed decisions.

The choices we make depend on our perspective, or the frames surrounding the problem. For example, research shows that people are likely to proceed with a decision if the outcome is presented with a 50% chance of success and decline if the consequence is expressed with a 50% chance of failure, even though the probability is the same in either case.

Most investors incorrectly frame stock investments by thinking of the stock market as a stream of electronic bits of data independent of the underlying businesses the data represents. The constant flow of information about prices, economies, and expert opinions triggers our emotional brains and stimulates quick decisions to reap profits (pleasure) or prevent loss (pain).

Buffett recommends investors not think of an investment in stock as “a piece of paper whose price wiggles around daily” and is a candidate for sale whenever you get nervous.

Short-term thinking – System 1 – often leads to trading stocks, not investing in companies. Day traders – those who buy and sell stocks within a single market session – are unusually unsuccessful, according to day trading studies by the University of California-Berkeley:

80% of all day traders quit within the first two years.
Active traders underperform the stock market average by 6.5% annually.
Only 1.6% of day traders make a net profit each year.
Financial data is especially susceptible to framing. Companies always express earnings and losses positively, either as an increase compared to past results or a smaller loss than previous periods. Trends can be manipulated based upon the comparison point and time interval.

Even the words we use to describe a choice establish a frame for assessing value. Characterizations like “high growth,” “turnaround,” or “cyclical” trigger the subconscious stereotypes we have for such terms without regard to the underlying financial data.

Framing can lead rational people to make irrational decisions based upon their projections of the outcome. This accounts for the difference between economics’ rational man and psychology’s natural man.

Buffett has learned to frame his investment opportunities appropriately to avoid short-term, arbitrary outcomes:

“We [Berkshire Hathaway] select such investments on a long-term basis, weighing the same factors as would be involved in the purchase of 100% of an operating business.”
“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”
“If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it 10 minutes.”
Loss Aversion.
Kahneman and Tversky determined that in human decision-making, losses loom larger than gains. Their experiments suggest that the pain of loss is twice as a great as the pleasure from gain. This feeling arises in the amygdala, which is responsible for generating fearful emotions and memories of painful associations.

The fact that investors are more likely to sell stocks with profit than those with a loss, when the converse strategy would be more logical, is evidence of the power of loss aversion.

While Buffett sells his positions infrequently, he cuts his losses when he realizes he has made a judgment error. In 2016, Buffett substantially reduced or liquidated his position in three companies, because he believed they had lost their competitive edge:

Wal-Mart: Despite his regrets that he had not purchased more shares earlier, he has been a long-time investor in the company. The rationale for the recent sales is thought to be due to the transition of the retail market from bricks-and-mortar stores to online. A Pew Research Center study found almost 80% of Americans today are online shoppers versus 22% in 2000.
Deere & Co: Buffett’s initial purchases of the agricultural equipment manufacturer began in the third quarter of 2012. By 2016, he owned almost 22-million shares with an average cost of less than $80 per share. He liquidated his shares during the last two quarters of 2016 when prices were more than $100 per share. Buffett may have felt that farm income, having fallen by half since 2013 due to worldwide bumper crops, was unlikely to improve, leaving the premier provider of agricultural equipment unable to continue to expand its profits.
Verizon: Having owned the stock since 2014, he liquidated his entire position in 2016, due to a loss of confidence in management after the company’s questionable acquisition of Yahoo and the continued turmoil in the wireless carrier market.
Our distaste for losses can create anxiety and trick us into acting prematurely because we fear being left out in a rising market or staying too long in a bear market. Buffett and Munger practice “assiduity – the ability to sit on your ass and do nothing until a great opportunity presents itself.”

Representativeness.
People tend to ignore statistics and focus on stereotypes. An example in the Association of Psychological Science Journal illustrates this common bias. When asked to select the proper occupation of a shy, withdrawn man who takes little interest in the real world from a list including farmer, salesman, pilot, doctor, and librarian, most people incorrectly chose librarian. Their decision ignores the obvious: there are many more farmers in the world than librarians.

Buffett focuses on finding the “inevitables” – great companies with insurmountable advantages – rather than following conventional wisdom and accepted patterns of thinking favored by System 1’s decision-making process. In his 1996 letter to investors, he defines Coca-Cola and Gillette as two companies that “will dominate their fields worldwide for an investment lifetime.”

He is especially wary of “imposters” – those companies that seem invincible but lack real competitive advantage. For every inevitable, there are dozens of imposters. According to Buffett, General Motors, IBM, and Sears lost their seemingly insurmountable advantages when values declined in “the presence of hubris or of boredom that caused the attention of the managers to wander.”

Buffett recognizes that companies in high-tech or embryonic industries capture our imaginations – and excite our emotional brains – with their promise of extraordinary gains. However, he prefers investments where he is “certain of a good result [rather] than hopeful of a great one” – an example of the logical brain at work.

Anchoring.
Evolution is the reason humans rely too heavily on the first or a single bit of information they receive – their “first impression.” In a world of deadly perils, delaying action can lead to pain or death. Therefore, first impressions linger in our minds and affect subsequent decisions. We subconsciously believe that what happened in the past will happen in the future, leading us to exaggerate the importance of the initial purchase price in subsequent decisions to sell a security.

Investors unknowingly make decisions based on anchoring data, such as previous stock prices, past years’ earnings, consensus analyst projections or expert opinions, and prevailing attitudes about the direction of stock prices, whether in a bear or bull market. While some characterize this effect as following a trend, it is a System 1 shortcut based on partial information, rather than the result of System 2 analysis.

Buffett often goes against the trend of popular opinion, recognizing that “most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.” When making a decision based on historical data, he notes, “If past history was all that is needed to play the game of money, the richest people would be librarians.”

Buffett’s approach is neither to follow the herd nor purposely do the opposite of the consensus. Whether people concur with his analysis isn’t important. His goal is simple: acquire, at a reasonable price, a business with excellent economics and able, honest management.

Despite considering IBM an “imposter” in 1996, Berkshire Hathaway began acquiring the stock in 2011, consistently adding to Buffett’s position over the years. By the end of the first quarter in 2017, Berkshire owned more than 8% of the outstanding shares with a value greater than $14 billion.

While his analysis remains confidential, Buffett believes that the investors have discounted the future of IBM too severely and failed to note its transition to a cloud-based business might lead to brighter growth prospects and a high degree of customer retention. Also, the company pays a dividend almost twice the level of the S&P 500 and actively repurchases shares on the open market.

The growing IBM position – quadrupling since the initial purchase – is evidence that Buffett isn’t afraid to take action when he is comfortable with his analysis: “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.”

Availability.
Humans tend to estimate the likelihood of an event occurring based on the ease with which it comes to mind. For example, a 2008 study of State lottery sales showed that stores that sell a publicized, winning lottery ticket experience a 12% to 38% increase in sales for up to 40 weeks following the announcement of the winner.

People visit stores selling a winning ticket more often due to the easy recall of the win, and a bias that the location is “lucky” and more likely to produce another winning ticket than a more convenient store down the street.

This bias frequently affects decisions about stock investments. In other words, investor perceptions lag reality. Momentum, whether upward or downward, continues well past the emergence of new facts. Investors with losses are slow to reinvest, often sitting on the sidelines until prices have recovered most of their decline (irrational pessimism).

Conversely, reinforcement from a bull market encourages continued purchasing even after the economic cycle turns down (irrational optimism). Therefore, investors tend to buy when prices are high and sell when they are low.

The S&P 500 fell 57% between late 2007 and March 2009, devastating investor portfolios and liquidating stocks and mutual funds. Even though the index had recovered its losses by mid-2012, individual investors had not returned to equity investments, either staying in cash or purchasing less risky bonds.

At the time, Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., noted, “Even three-and-a-half years into this bull market and the gains we’ve seen since June [2012], it has not turned this psychology [of fear] around.” In other words, many individuals took the loss but did not participate in the subsequent recovery.

Buffett has always tried to follow the advice of his mentor, Benjamin Graham, who said, “Buy not on optimism [or sell due to pessimism], but on arithmetic.” Graham advocated objective analysis, not emotions, when buying or selling stocks: “In the short run, the market is a voting machine [emotional], but in the long run it is a weighing machine [logical].”

Affect.
We tend to assess probabilities based on our feelings about the options. In other words, we judge an option less risky solely because we favor it and vice versa. This bias can lead people to buy stock in their employer when other investments would be more appropriate for their goals. Overconfidence in one’s ability magnifies the negative impact of affect.

For example, Buffett invested $350 million in preferred stock of U.S. Airways in 1989, despite his belief that airlines and airline manufacturers had historically been a death trap for investors. The investment followed a dinner with Ed Colodny, the CEO of the airline, who impressed Buffett. Certain that the preferred stock was safe and the airline had a competitive seat cost (around 12 cents per mile), he made the investment.

Buffett later admitted his analysis “was superficial and wrong,” perhaps due to hubris and his like for Colodny. An upstart Texas airline (Southwest Airlines) subsequently upset the competitive balance in the industry with seat costs of 8 cents per mile, causing Berkshire Hathaway to write down its investment by 75%.

Buffett was lucky to make a significant profit on the investment ($216 million), primarily because the airline subsequently and unexpectedly returned to profitability and was able to pay the accrued dividends and redeem its preferred stock.

Final Word.
Mr. Buffett’s investment style has been criticized by many over the decades. Trend followers and traders are especially critical of his record and philosophy, claiming that his results are the result of “luck, given the relatively few trades that made him so wealthy.”

Hedge fund manager Michael Steinhardt, who Forbes called “Wall Street’s Greatest Trader,” said during a CNBC interview that Buffett is “the greatest PR person of all time. And he has managed to achieve a snow job that has conned virtually everyone in the press to my knowledge.”

Before following the advice of those who are quick to condemn Buffett’s investment style, it should be noted that no investment manager has come close to rivaling Buffet’s record over the past 60 years. While Steinhardt’s returns are similar to those of Buffett, his were for a period of 28 years – less than one-half of Buffett’s cycle.

Despite their antipathy, both men would agree that System 2 decision-making is critical to investment success. Steinhardt, in his autobiography “No Bull: My Life In and Out of Markets,” said that his results required “knowing more and perceiving the situation better than others did . . . Reaching a level of understanding that allows one to feel competitively informed well ahead of changes in ‘street’ views, even anticipating minor stock price changes, may justify at times making unpopular investments.”

Buffett appears to agree, insisting on taking the time for introspection and thought. “I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in American business. I read and think. So I do more reading and thinking, and make fewer impulsive decisions than most people in business.”

Do you take the time to gather facts and make carefully analyzed investment decisions? Perhaps you are more comfortable going with the flow. What is your decision-making preference and how has it worked out for you thus far?
Do you know anyone who has owned the same stock for 20 years? Warren Buffett has held three stocks – Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, and American Express – for more than 20 years. He has owned one stock – Moody’s – for 15 years, and three other stocks – Proctor & Gamble, Wal-Mart, and U.S. Bancorp – for over a decade.

To be sure, Mr. Buffett’s 50-year track record is not perfect, as he has pointed out from time to time:

Berkshire Hathaway: Pique at CEO Seabird Stanton motivated his takeover of the failing textile company. Buffett later admitted the purchase was “the dumbest stock I ever bought.”
Energy Future Holding: Buffett lost a billion dollars in bonds of the bankrupt Texas electric utility. He admitted he made a huge mistake not consulting his long-term business partner Charlie Munger before closing the purchase: “I would be unwilling to share the credit for my decision to invest with anyone else. That was just a mistake – a significant mistake.”
Wal-Mart: At the 2003 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Buffet admitted his attempt to time the market had backfired: “We bought a little, and it moved up a little, and I thought maybe it would come back. That thumb-sucking has cost us in the current area of $10 billion.”
Even with these mistakes, Buffett has focused on making big bets that he intends to hold for decades to come. A longer time horizon has allowed him to take advantage of opportunities few others have the patience for. But how has he been able to make these successful bets in the first place?

source : https://www.moneycrashers.com/warren-buffett-decisions-secret-investing-success.

August 14, 2020

Ten Ways to Create Shareholder Value (part 1).

Ten Ways to Create Shareholder Value (part 1).

by Alfred Rappaport.

It’s become fashionable to blame the pursuit of shareholder value for the ills besetting corporate America: managers and investors obsessed with next quarter’s results, failure to invest in long-term growth, and even the accounting scandals that have grabbed headlines. When executives destroy the value they are supposed to be creating, they almost always claim that stock market pressure made them do it.

The reality is that the shareholder value principle has not failed management; rather, it is management that has betrayed the principle. In the 1990s, for example, many companies introduced stock options as a major component of executive compensation. The idea was to align the interests of management with those of shareholders. But the generous distribution of options largely failed to motivate value-friendly behavior because their design almost guaranteed that they would produce the opposite result. To start with, relatively short vesting periods, combined with a belief that short-term earnings fuel stock prices, encouraged executives to manage earnings, exercise their options early, and cash out opportunistically. The common practice of accelerating the vesting date for a CEO’s options at retirement added yet another incentive to focus on short-term performance.

Of course, these shortcomings were obscured during much of that decade, and corporate governance took a backseat as investors watched stock prices rise at a double-digit clip. The climate changed dramatically in the new millennium, however, as accounting scandals and a steep stock market decline triggered a rash of corporate collapses. The ensuing erosion of public trust prompted a swift regulatory response—most notably, the 2002 passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (SOX), which requires companies to institute elaborate internal controls and makes corporate executives directly accountable for the accuracy of financial statements. Nonetheless, despite SOX and other measures, the focus on short-term performance persists.

In their defense, some executives contend that they have no choice but to adopt a short-term orientation, given that the average holding period for stocks in professionally managed funds has dropped from about seven years in the 1960s to less than one year today. Why consider the interests of long-term shareholders when there are none? This reasoning is deeply flawed. What matters is not investor holding periods but rather the market’s valuation horizon—the number of years of expected cash flows required to justify the stock price. While investors may focus unduly on near-term goals and hold shares for a relatively short time, stock prices reflect the market’s long view. Studies suggest that it takes more than ten years of value-creating cash flows to justify the stock prices of most companies. Management’s responsibility, therefore, is to deliver those flows—that is, to pursue long-term value maximization regardless of the mix of high- and low-turnover shareholders. And no one could reasonably argue that an absence of long-term shareholders gives management the license to maximize short-term performance and risk endangering the company’s future. The competitive landscape, not the shareholder list, should shape business strategies.

The competitive landscape, not the shareholder list, should shape business strategies.

What do companies have to do if they are to be serious about creating value? In this article, I draw on my research and several decades of consulting experience to set out ten basic governance principles for value creation that collectively will help any company with a sound, well-executed business model to better realize its potential for creating shareholder value. Though the principles will not surprise readers, applying some of them calls for practices that run deeply counter to prevailing norms. I should point out that no company—with the possible exception of Berkshire Hathaway—gets anywhere near to implementing all these principles. That’s a pity for investors because, as CEO Warren Buffett’s fellow shareholders have found, there’s a lot to be gained from owning shares in what I call a level 10 company—one that applies all ten principles. (For more on Berkshire Hathaway’s application of the ten principles, please read my colleague Michael Mauboussin’s analysis in the sidebar “Approaching Level 10: The Story of Berkshire Hathaway.”).

Principle 1.

Do not manage earnings or provide earnings guidance.
Companies that fail to embrace this first principle of shareholder value will almost certainly be unable to follow the rest. Unfortunately, that rules out most corporations because virtually all public companies play the earnings expectations game. A 2006 National Investor Relations Institute study found that 66% of 654 surveyed companies provide regular profit guidance to Wall Street analysts. A 2005 survey of 401 financial executives by Duke University’s John Graham and Campbell R. Harvey, and University of Washington’s Shivaram Rajgopal, reveals that companies manage earnings with more than just accounting gimmicks: A startling 80% of respondents said they would decrease value-creating spending on research and development, advertising, maintenance, and hiring in order to meet earnings benchmarks. More than half the executives would delay a new project even if it entailed sacrificing value.

What’s so bad about focusing on earnings? First, the accountant’s bottom line approximates neither a company’s value nor its change in value over the reporting period. Second, organizations compromise value when they invest at rates below the cost of capital (overinvestment) or forgo investment in value-creating opportunities (underinvestment) in an attempt to boost short-term earnings. Third, the practice of reporting rosy earnings via value-destroying operating decisions or by stretching permissible accounting to the limit eventually catches up with companies. Those that can no longer meet investor expectations end up destroying a substantial portion, if not all, of their market value. WorldCom, Enron, and Nortel Networks are notable examples.

Principle 2.

Make strategic decisions that maximize expected value, even at the expense of lowering near-term earnings.
Companies that manage earnings are almost bound to break this second cardinal principle. Indeed, most companies evaluate and compare strategic decisions in terms of the estimated impact on reported earnings when they should be measuring against the expected incremental value of future cash flows instead. Expected value is the weighted average value for a range of plausible scenarios. (To calculate it, multiply the value added for each scenario by the probability that that scenario will materialize, then sum up the results.) A sound strategic analysis by a company’s operating units should produce informed responses to three questions: First, how do alternative strategies affect value? Second, which strategy is most likely to create the greatest value? Third, for the selected strategy, how sensitive is the value of the most likely scenario to potential shifts in competitive dynamics and assumptions about technology life cycles, the regulatory environment, and other relevant variables?

At the corporate level, executives must also address three questions: Do any of the operating units have sufficient value-creation potential to warrant additional capital? Which units have limited potential and therefore should be candidates for restructuring or divestiture? And what mix of investments in operating units is likely to produce the most overall value?

Principle 3.

Make acquisitions that maximize expected value, even at the expense of lowering near-term earnings.
Companies typically create most of their value through day-to-day operations, but a major acquisition can create or destroy value faster than any other corporate activity. With record levels of cash and relatively low debt levels, companies increasingly use mergers and acquisitions to improve their competitive positions: M&A announcements worldwide exceeded $2.7 trillion in 2005.

Companies (even those that follow Principle 2 in other respects) and their investment bankers usually consider price/earnings multiples for comparable acquisitions and the immediate impact of earnings per share (EPS) to assess the attractiveness of a deal. They view EPS accretion as good news and its dilution as bad news. When it comes to exchange-of-shares mergers, a narrow focus on EPS poses an additional problem on top of the normal shortcomings of earnings. Whenever the acquiring company’s price/earnings multiple is greater than the selling company’s multiple, EPS rises. The inverse is also true. If the acquiring company’s multiple is lower than the selling company’s multiple, earnings per share decline. In neither case does EPS tell us anything about the deal’s long-term potential to add value.

Sound decisions about M&A deals are based on their prospects for creating value, not on their immediate EPS impact, and this is the foundation for the third principle of value creation. Management needs to identify clearly where, when, and how it can accomplish real performance gains by estimating the present value of the resulting incremental cash flows and then subtracting the acquisition premium.

Value-oriented managements and boards also carefully evaluate the risk that anticipated synergies may not materialize. They recognize the challenge of postmerger integration and the likelihood that competitors will not stand idly by while the acquiring company attempts to generate synergies at their expense. If it is financially feasible, acquiring companies confident of achieving synergies greater than the premium will pay cash so that their shareholders will not have to give up any anticipated merger gains to the selling companies’ shareholders. If management is uncertain whether the deal will generate synergies, it can hedge its bets by offering stock. This reduces potential losses for the acquiring company’s shareholders by diluting their ownership interest in the postmerger company.

to be continued part 2.

July 25, 2020

How to Ask Rich People for Money

How to Ask Rich People for Money.

Fundraising for charity is an important part of any nonprofit group's work. In the U.S. alone, donors gave almost $287 billion in 2011. Many people who work for nonprofits feel uncomfortable asking donors for money, but without their help most nonprofit groups would not be able to carry out their missions. Learning how to effectively and respectfully ask wealthy individuals for money can help you ensure your charity or favorite nonprofit, federally recognized as 501 (c) (3), group prospers and is able to help those in need.

Part 1 Planning Your Donation Request
1. Compile a list of donors. Before you begin asking for money, it's best to have an idea of who you're going to ask for donations. If you're going door-to-door, that may be as simple as deciding which neighborhood(s) to work in. If you're soliciting donations by phone or by mail, though, you'll need a list of prospective donors to contact.
If you can identify past donors on your list of people to call or write to, you may want to prioritize those individuals as "best bets" - these are people who, given their history of donating in the past, will most likely contribute again to your cause.
Try to identify which people on your list are the most financially stable. You can do this by interacting with the individual to get a sense of his or her finances, or if going door-to-door, look at the houses residents live in and the cars in their driveways. People with large, elaborate homes or flashy sports cars most likely have more disposable income. (Though of course this doesn't guarantee that they will give donations.)
You can also look for potential donors by their other areas of spending. For example, does the prospective donor attend fundraisers for other organizations or individuals? If so, that prospective donor probably has the means to donate to your organization, if properly persuaded.
Consider using analytical software and services, such as Donor Search, to identify which potential donors are more wealthy and more likely to donate.
Remember to think "ABC" when identifying donors: Able to make a gift, Belief (known or potential) in your cause, and Contact/Connection with your organization.
2. Get to know your donors. If your organization has dealt with donors in the past, you or a colleague will probably know what strategies work best in making your appeal. Some people want to know how the money from last year was spent, while others may simply want to know how much is needed. Certain donors may have fears or reservations about donating, and it's important to learn to recognize those fears/reservations so you can address them in advance.
Some donors may need to hear particular terms or phrases in order to be persuaded to donate. If you know this to be the case, make some indication of this on your list so that when you call or approach that person, you'll know what to say.
Any time a donor seems reluctant to give but gives anyway, make a note of that situation on your list or in that donor's file (if you have one). Listen to what the individual says when he or she is reluctant, and try to find ways to assuage those fears - not just for this year's fundraiser, but for future years as well.
Be aware that many well-known philanthropists hire other individuals to manage donations and contributions. Because of this, you may not get to speak to the actual donor himself/herself. However, the employees hired by a philanthropist probably have the same concerns that the philanthropist does, and you may have some luck appealing to the philanthropist's interests through his or her employees.
3. Find ways to present your organization. People who have donated to your organization will no doubt be familiar with who you are (as an organization) and what you do. But what about people who have never donated before? How will you describe what you do to an outsider? This is important, as it may determine whether the individual will listen to the rest of your pitch. If possible, try to compile some data on what your organization has done in the past, the problems you hope to address after this fundraising drive, and how that prospective donation would help your cause.
Try to present your organization in a way that both explains what you do while also highlighting the issue you seek to change. For example, you might say something like, "Did you know that [the issue your organization addresses] affects a significant portion of the city, and we are the only organization solely committed to addressing these issues in a comprehensive way?"
It's not a requirement to have data compiled, but for individuals who aren't familiar with your organization, it may be very helpful to know that information.
Consider printing out a brochure or having a reusable chart to illustrate both the improvements you've made and the improvements you hope to make.
Think about what you might say if someone doesn't understand your organization's goals, or what you might say if someone was dismissive of your organization. Try putting yourself in those shoes - imagining that you were someone who didn't want to help the organization - and what you might say to the organization. Then imagine how you might respond to hearing those words.
The better your donor base understands your organization - and the better you understand your donors - the more likely you'll be to build a long-term relationship with that donor.
4. Practice your appeal. One of the best things you can do to strengthen your appeal for donations is to practice what you're going to say. That doesn't just mean knowing how to actually ask for money, but also knowing how to initiate the conversation, practicing scenarios, anticipating potential responses, and knowing how to direct (or re-direct) the conversation.
Remember that the best appeal will educate the potential donor, rather than making a simple sales pitch.
Practice your appeal out loud. Get comfortable with the speech, and learn to adapt it to your own style of speaking. Make it your own speech, and try to make it feel comfortable and unrehearsed (even though this may take a lot of rehearsal).
Practice in front of a mirror if you will be interacting with donors face-to-face.
Try recording yourself, either with a tape recorder or on video, and study your mannerisms and your speech patterns. Does it sound honest? Do your vocal patterns and your physical mannerisms communicate the message of your organization, and the urgency of what you're trying to solve?

Part 2 Asking for Donations.
1. Start a conversation. Don't just call and start running in with your pitch. Work on creating a dialogue with the potential donor, which may mean making some polite small talk at the start. It can be as simple as asking the person how his or her day is going. Anything to start a conversation should help disarm the individual, and make the person realize that you're a caring and concerned member of the community.
If the prospective donor is a known philanthropist, he or she may prefer to have someone who heads the foundation ask for a donation. Statistically, donors are more likely to give money to a recognizable figure affiliated with an organization, rather than to a fundraiser who contacts them on the organization's behalf.
Initiate the conversation by getting the prospective donor to acknowledge an existing problem. If you're raising money for a local organization, you might open the conversation by asking what he or she thinks is the greatest crisis facing your region.
2. Make your intentions known. You shouldn't just introduce yourself by asking for money, but you should make your intentions known near the end of your small talk. Start by asking how the person is doing, or commenting on the weather, and then use that as a lead-in to say, "I'm working with _______, and we're trying to help _______ be able to ________."
If the individual feels like you're just having an aimless conversation and then suddenly he or she is asked for money, it may create tension and cause the person to feel like you're shaking them down. Be calm, friendly, and casual, but don't drag your feet about making it clear that you have a purpose.
3. Let the other person speak. Chances are, if you launch into your usual appeal to a person on the street who's never donated before, that person will walk away. But if you have created a dialogue, and made room for the other person to speak, you may be able to get that individual to feel engaged and a part of the solution.
Try asking a Question : . Say something like, "What do you think is the biggest problem our community faces?" Once the person has answered, instead of simply saying, "Yes, you're right. Will you consider donating?" try a more nuanced approach. After the person says what he or she sees as the problem, just say, "How interesting!" and keep silent while remaining interested.
People fear silence, and the person will probably fill that gap by elaborating on why that issue is important. That potential donor may go on to talk about how a family member has been affected by those issues. This gives you an in to take the specific concern he/she has and run with it. It's no longer an abstract concern, but a specific problem that may have affected the individual personally.
4. Make a specific request. If you leave a donation appeal open-ended, the person may not end up donating, or may only give a few dollars. But if you ask for a specific amount, it takes a lot of guess work out of the equation for that individual, and makes it easier to commit to your request. For example, if the person seems interested, say something like, "Well, we can make a difference. For just _____ dollars, you can help accomplish ___________."
Another way to ask for a specific amount is to put the ball in their court. Ask something like, "Would you consider a gift of _____?" or "Is ______ something you'd be willing to consider to help tackle the problem of __________?"
5. Be persistent. Many people will say no right off the bat, but others may simply need to be persuaded a bit more. Perhaps someone might say that the amount you requested is too high. If that happens, let the person know that any donation amount would be a big help, and ask if there's a slightly lower amount that the person would be willing/able to donate.
Don't be aggressive with your appeal, but do be insistent that your cause is worthy and that any donation amount would help that cause.
6. Thank the person either way. If the individual is willing to donate, then it's cause for celebration. You can thank the person and let him or her know that that donation will go a long way towards solving or addressing the issue at hand. But even if the person is not interested in donating, you should still be polite and appreciative of their time. Simply say, "Well, thank you for your time and have a wonderful day."
Expressing gratitude and courtesy can go a long way. Just because someone isn't interested in donating, that doesn't mean the situation won't change. Perhaps next year the people who said no will have heard or read more about your organization, or perhaps the individual will have been personally affected by the issue you're seeking to address. Making a good impression now, even when turned down, may be what helps you get a donation next year.
7. Follow up with donors. If someone gave a donation, you should absolutely express gratitude. Send the donor a thank-you letter and a gift receipt (in case they want to write it off on their taxes or simply have a record of the donation). It's best to send these items as quickly as possible so that the donor knows that the contribution was greatly appreciated and will be put to good use.

Community Q&A.

Question : How do I ask a rich person for 50,000 dollars?
Answer : Follow the instructions listed in the article above. However, they will likely say no.
Question : How can I get money if I need it urgently?
Answer : Get a job, start a blog, make something, or ask for a small loan.
Question : How can I get help with my power bills and the foreclosure on my house?
Answer : There are probably social services nearby that can help.
Question : How can I raise money for my wedding?
Answer : Ask friends and family members if they are willing to pitch in some money to help fund your marriage. In return, send them invitations.
Question : How can I find money for my daughter's marriage?
Answer : Loans, relatives, friends, or you could try planning a wedding that won't cost you much!
Question : Where can you apply for a small business loan with bad credit?
Answer : You can try becoming a member of a credit union and try for a loan there.
Question : How do I ask for money if I am about to be homeless with an autistic son?
Answer : Ask family and friends, and tell them your situation. Look for government programs that can help, and depending on the age of your son, you may be able to get financial help for him. You can also ask family and friends if the two of you can stay with them while you get back on your feet. That way, you have an address while you look for a job.
Question : I need a loan to deal with a parent's sickness, what can I do?
Answer : Loans are not the only solution to sickness, there are organizations that provide affordable medical care. Search for these in your area. You might also consider launching a donation campaign through Kickstarter or another fundraising website.
Question : How can someone fund me to help me spread the word of God?
Answer : Try doing a simple fundraiser, like a lemonade stand or a car wash.

Tips.

Many people are more motivated to help you with money if they sympathize with your goals or interests. Try to tailor your appeal to each individual donor, based on how that donor seems to respond to the issues you address.
Always send a thank-you note to your donors, regardless of how much they sent you.

July 02, 2020

How to Start an Investment Club

How to Start an Investment Club.

If you're interested in investing but don't want to go at it alone, you can join an investment club or even start one of your own. An investment club consists of members who study stocks, bonds and other investments. The goal is to have each member take an industry and report to the group why they think it is a great investment. Knowledge is power, and wisdom from many helps assure success. Many times they will pool their money together in order to make joint investment decisions. It's a great way to give and get wisdom. Working with others will help you and others make intelligent investment decisions.

Part 1 Getting Your Club Together.
1. Find potential members for your club. They can be local, so you can meet in person, or they can live far away, and you can meet online. Aim for a club with 10 to 15 members, but anything from six to 20 is workable. When you have fewer people you might have trouble getting enough funds together to invest (some investments favor the larger investor). However, with a large group, both maintaining high-quality discussions and finding a place to meet become concerns.
Spread the word. Tell family, friends, and co-workers about your club-in-the-making. Put together a flyer describing what you have in mind, and pass it out, post it on message boards, send it through e-mail, etc.
2. Hold a preliminary meeting. Get together with the people who are interested, provide snacks and refreshments, and discuss the formation of a club.
Define goals. Are people more interested in the club for its educational value, or for the financial returns? Are they interested in short-term or long-term investing? (Most investment clubs use a buy-and-hold strategy.) Will your members share a general investing philosophy and approach?
Determine how much each member can contribute financially.
If people make different contributions, their returns should be proportional.
You can either pool your investment funds and invest together (a common practice) or invest through individual accounts (self-directed).
Consider starting your club through BetterInvesting.org, an organization that can provide education, support, and online tools and resources for your club.
Determine if your club needs to register with the SEC. You can find more information on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission at: https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/invclub.htm
3. Gauge member interest level. In other words, decide whether you really want to invest with these people. An investment club will involve significant risk for those involved. The risks, and consequently the rewards, are shared among all members. This means that everyone involved should be equally interested and participate similarly. Be on the lookout for red flags among your potential members. For example, consider carefully members that might.
4. Hold an organizational meeting to iron out the details. Have another get-together with the people who are still interested to discuss and implement the club's policy and organization. The first step should be to decide on an official name for your group. Next you'll want to decide when and where to meet (a living room, library, church, or coffeehouse, depending on the size of the group). Meetings should last an hour or two. After defining these basic rules, consider also doing the following.
Defining and appointing roles within the club (president, secretary, treasurer, investor). What are their responsibilities? The terms should be one or two years, and the treasurer should have an assistant who can move up later.
Writing out how the club will manage payouts, divestiture (reducing assets or investments), or dissolution.
Laying out the policies on gaining new members and figuring out what happens when a member wants to leave the club.
5. File the necessary paperwork. In order to pool your money and invest together, you will need to incorporate your investment club into what is known as a general partnership. You will have to write out the rules of this partnership and its operation and have each member sign it once you all agree.
You should also write a club operating agreement. This would outline all the policies discussed in the previous meeting and should be signed by everyone in the group (as well as others who may join later). There are sample contracts and agreements available online and in books.
To pay taxes, you also have to apply with the IRS for an Employer Identification Number (EIN) and file a "Certificate of Conducting Business as Partners" form with a local jurisdiction (such as a Secretary of State office). Contact your local jurisdiction (city, county, or state) for more information.

Part 2 Investing with Your Club
1. Open a brokerage account or bank account. Most clubs start with both a checking and a brokerage account. Choose a broker who suits your needs (full-service, discount, or online). A full-service broker will provide advice and may attend a few meetings, while a discount or online broker will leave you to your own devices. Many investment clubs end up choosing the latter.
2. Develop an educational agenda. In most cases, investment clubs are formed by people who are still learning about investing. Not everyone is on the same page in terms of his knowledge base. Ask each member what big Question : s they have about investing. Having them submit Question : s anonymously is a good option. Choose the topics you feel should be addressed as a group. Make a "syllabus" and decide who will be doing the research and presenting the topic to the group.
You may also wish to provide a list of good, reliable sources for research. In general, you should stick to reputable financial news services and online investing encyclopedias.
3. Research potential first investments. After a period of time, when contributions to the club have been made by group members, you're ready to start looking at first investments. Have each club member research potential asset purchases like stocks, mutual funds, or investment properties and defend her choices with research. Then, you can have the group vote on their favorite choices and determine how much money to allocate to each.
Remember to keep some of your initial money uninvested in case the market presents an opportunity.
4. Invest as a group. Finalize your choices for your first investment and take the plunge. As your club continues operating, evaluate new and old investments during your regular meetings. These will typically be held once a month, although market conditions may dictate more frequent gatherings. In these meetings you should also:
Review club finances (overall gains or losses, individual investment progress and cash balance available for investment).
Make sure you have designated a single, trustworthy member who has the authority to buy and sell on behalf of the club.
5. Have fun. Celebrate your victories and commiserate your losses. This is one of the biggest reasons people join investment clubs. You could even set aside some of your gains for group outings or events. The idea is to keep everyone entertained and involved in the group so that they keep contributing funds each month and don't get bored over time.

Community Q&A.

Question : Can a group of my friends start a club where we focus on trading Futures contracts?
Answer : Yes, you can focus on any sort of investment you like. Find a full-service broker who's very experienced in that area unless you know what you're doing, in which case you can use an online brokerage.
Question : I have an existing Investment Club of 20 years and now our broker is asking for an updated membership list. We have had numerous changes in membership that we have not made officially through our by-laws. What should we do?
Answer : It is not necessary for your by-laws to list your members by name. It's a good idea, however, to keep a current membership list. Let it include identifying information such as Social Security numbers. Share that list with your broker. He may be required by law to have that information on file. If your club has a secretary or treasurer, it can be that person's responsibility to keep your membership list current along with all individual contributions and earnings.
Question : Can whole life insurance be a viable investment tool for investment clubs?
Answer : No. Life insurance could potentially be a decent investment for an individual but not for a group.
Question : We are forming an investment club for stocks, real estate, etc. How do we register and what type of account do we need?
Answer : "Registration" is not necessary. You are simply private parties making private investments. If you'll be making group purchases, you'll want a checking account for the club, as well as trading accounts with one or more brokerages. (You don't have to work exclusively with one broker.)
Question : Why, when we leave the investment club, do we only get 95% of our money?
Answer : Read the by-laws of your club. There may be a provision stating that the club retains 5% of your money for maintenance purposes.
Question : In this era where investing in stocks is highly risky, what other investment windows would you advise?
Answer : Bonds are usually considered to be less risky than stocks. You can invest in certain mutual funds that own an array of bonds. Some mutual funds invest mainly in stocks, and that's a way of diversifying your stock investment and taking on less risk. Money-market instruments such as certificates of deposit (CDs) are safe investments, but they don't pay very much interest. Unfortunately, that's usually the case: the safer the investment, the less it's likely to pay you.
Question : There are six of us. We want to pull our funds together each month and ultimately invest it. Would we need to register our group as a limited partnership the state's secretary of state office?
Answer : Probably a general partnership. Re-read Part 1, Step 5 above.
Question : Are we limited as a group to investing in stocks, bonds and real estate? Can we also invest in things like buying and selling cars, boats, auctioned-off storage units, estate sales, etc.?
Answer : A club is free to choose its own investments without restrictions.
Question : How should the profits be shared among the club members?
Answer : Profits are commonly shared in direct proportion to the amount of each member's investment, but you can agree on other arrangements if you like, such as recognizing certain members' investing prowess or willingness to do administrative work on the club's behalf.

Tips.

Don't invest immediately. Give the group a couple of months to deposit money. This will weed out those who aren't really committed to the club or who can't afford it.
When an investment goes wrong, keep your pointing finger to yourself. Use the experience to learn what not to do. Go back to the drawing board and change things if need be.
Trust has to be established for the club to be effective.
Limit investments to cash with no leverage. If margin accounts are used, every partner may be liable for the full debt.

Warnings.

Make sure that everyone understands that they might not make money and could actually lose money. Not all investments are profitable. If they were, everyone would be doing it.
Proper planning, a supportive group, and an understanding leader are vital in promoting cohesion and optimism within the group
Some members may be tempted to embezzle funds. This is why having an operating agreement and ironing out the details is important. So is your choice of club officers.
Be ready for the fact that your group will experience emotional highs and lows in the course of investing their hard-earned money.

July 02, 2020

How to Prepare for Economic Collapse

How to Prepare for Economic Collapse.

An economic collapse means a breakdown of the national economy. It would be characterized by a long-term downturn in economic activity, increased poverty and a disruption of the social order, including protests, riots and possibly violence. In some cases, this collapse would be akin to a deep recession, with society still functioning basically as normal (just with more poverty). However, it could be much worse. You should prepare for the worst, but adjust your actions to the actual severity of the collapse. You can prepare for an economic collapse by preparing financially, stocking up on the essentials, and monitoring the economic indicators.

Method 1 Preparing Your Finances.
1. Start an emergency fund. If you are living paycheck to paycheck and you lose your job during an economic collapse, you are at risk for losing your home and living in poverty. It won’t be easy to find another job and replace your income. Your goal should be to save up enough to cover six months of expenses in your emergency fund.
If you are trying to get out of debt, save up an emergency fund of $1,000 and then apply all of your extra income to your debt. Once your debt is paid off, you can divert more money into your emergency fund.
Keep your emergency fund separate from your checking account so that you are not tempted to use the money. Put it in a low-risk, interest-bearing account such as a savings account, money market account or certificate of deposit (CD).
On the other hand, a complete economic collapse would leave you unable to access your bank account, because of the crash of the financial system. Additionally, your money may become useless or extremely devalued. Consider stocking other commodities that you could barter with in an economic collapse, like alcohol, precious metals (gold and silver), and fuel.
2. Have cash on hand. Depending on where you have it, money in your emergency fund might be hard to liquidate. Bonds, for example, must be sold, and other investments like CD’s might charge fees for early withdrawal. Also, if you have a savings account with an online bank instead of a brick-and-mortar institution, it might take several days to withdraw your money. It’s important to have cash that you can access easily, either from a savings account or a cash box in your home. This can tide you over in an emergency until you can access money in your emergency fund.
3. Generate an additional source of income. Start a home business as a second source of income. If you lose your job because of an economic collapse, it might be difficult or even impossible to find another job. Having an alternative source of income can help you to keep your home and avoid poverty. Choose your business idea based on skills that you have and things that you enjoy doing. In addition, think about how likely it will be that people will require these services in an economic collapse; people may need basic necessities like clean water or food more than they need an interior decorator.
Provide services to people in their homes, such as house cleaning, home organization, meal preparation, or interior decorating.
Sell goods you produce, such as baked goods, custom clothing or jewelry.
4. Get out of debt. In a financial collapse, many people are going to lose their jobs and their homes. To prepare for this possibility, you should make a plan to get out of debt as quickly as possible. This way, if you do lose your job, you don’t have to worry about finding a way to pay these bills. The worst kind of debt to have is credit card debt. Because of the high interest rates that many people have, carrying a balance on a credit card can cost you a great deal of money.
Create a budget in order to track your income and expenses. Make a plan to have a surplus of money left over at the end of the month to apply towards your debt. This means reducing your expenses and possibly finding additional work to supplement your income.
Organize your debt so you can make a plan to pay it off. You can choose from a few different methods for planning how to pay off your debt. Whichever method you choose, it is important to stick with it.
One method is to order your debts from smallest to biggest, regardless of the interest rate, and pay off the smallest debts first. This helps you build momentum.
Another method is laddering, which means paying off the debt with the highest interest rates first. This makes the most sense mathematically because it reduces the amount of interest expense you pay in the long-term.
That said, in a true economic collapse, your creditors would likely have other things to worry about than just finding you and recovering your debts. Additionally, currency may be greatly devalued or completely useless, meaning that the amount stated on your debt balance would be equally depressed or meaningless.

Method 2 Storing the Essentials.
1. Store emergency water. In the event of an economic collapse, it is possible that your power and water supply might be interrupted, or that you will not be able to pay for these things. You will need a supply of clean water for drinking, cooking and hygiene. You can purchase bottles of water or store water in your own containers. If you run out of water, you can take steps to sanitize contaminated water.
Store at least one gallon of water per person for a minimum of three days or for up to two weeks. Don’t forget to include pets in this equation.
If you are storing water in your own containers, wash them first with dish soap and water and sanitize them with a solution of 1 teaspoon of liquid chlorine bleach to a quart of water.
To make water safe, you can boil it and filter it through a clean cloth, paper towel or coffee filter.
2. Stockpile food. The kind of food you store up for an emergency is different from the groceries you purchase each week. You need to get food that is non-perishable, does not have to be refrigerated and will provide you with the nutrition you need to survive. It may be very different from the food you are used to eating, but you will be glad you have it if you ever need it.
Purchase food that does not have to be refrigerated or frozen so you don’t have to worry about power outages. These foods include canned goods, peanut butter and beef or turkey jerky.
Include foods highly nutritious foods that are easy to store, such as dried foods, nuts, beans, canned meat and vegetables and powdered milk.
For comfort foods, avoid snack foods that will quickly expire. Instead, stock up on spaghetti and spaghetti sauce, soups, sugar and honey for canning and baking, dried fruit, coffee and tea and hard candy.
If necessary, stock pile baby food and formula, Don’t forget to include pet food if you have pets.
Keep a manual can opener with your stockpile.
3. Start a garden. A garden allows you to continually have fresh, nutritious food to supplement your emergency food supply. Also, in an economic crisis the cost of living might skyrocket. Having a garden will help you to save money on your grocery bills. It will also allow you to be self-sufficient should a food shortage result from the financial collapse.
If you don’t have a lot of space, consider starting a container garden.
If you don’t have good soil, purchase humus soil or top soil. Add peat moss, composted manure and plant fertilizers.
Choose vegetables and herbs that are easy to grow, including beans and peas, carrots, greens like lettuce, cabbage, spinach and kale, potatoes and sweet potatoes, squash, tomatoes, broccoli, berries and melons.
4. Create an emergency kit. This is a collection of household items you might need in an emergency. In the event of an economic collapse, you may not be able to shop for these supplies, so it’s important to have them on hand. Keep your supplies in a container that’s easy to carry in case you have to evacuate for some reason.
Include an extra set of car keys, blankets, matches, a multi-use tool, maps of the area, a flashlight, a battery-powered or hand-cranked radio, extra batteries, matches and a cell phone and chargers.
Have some household liquid bleach on hand for disinfecting.
Make copies of all important documents, such as proof of address, deed/lease to home, passports, birth certificates and insurance policies.
Have a list of family and emergency contact numbers, Include baby supplies such as baby food, formula, diapers and bottles.
Remember pet supplies like food, collars, leashes and food bowls.
5. Gather first aid and medical supplies. You can purchase a first aid kit or put one together yourself. Either way, make sure it has all of the necessary supplies. Include personal items such as medications for yourself and members of your family. Check the kit regularly to make sure nobody has used any of the supplies. Also, check the expiration dates and replace expired items.
Keep a first aid manual with your first aid kit.
Include dressings and bandages, such as adhesive bandages in various sizes, sterile gauze pads and a gauze roll, adhesive tape, elastic bandages and sterile cotton balls.
Add equipment and other supplies, like latex or non-latex gloves, instant cold packs, a thermometer, safety pins to fasten splints or bandages, tweezers, scissors and hand sanitizer.
Have medicines for cuts and injuries, such as antiseptic solution like hydrogen peroxide, antibiotic ointment, calamine lotion for stings or poison ivy, hydrocortisone cream for itching and an eyewash solution.
Include contact lens solution if necessary.
Other medicines to have include pain and fever medicines like aspirin, acetaminophen or ibuprofen, antihistamines for allergies, decongestants for colds, anti-nausea medicine, anti-diarrhea medicine, antacids and laxatives.

Method 3 Preserving Food.
1. Preserve meat and fish. In an economic collapse, food stores could become dangerously low. If you are going to stock up on meat and fish ahead of time, you will need to know how to cure it. This will allow it stay fresh and edible much longer. Also, it can be stored at room temperature. This will be helpful in the event of a power outage.
2. Salt cure meat. Salt curing means using salt to kill the microbes that would spoil it. For every 100 pounds of meat, you need 8 pounds of salt, 2 ounces of saltpeter and 3 pounds of sugar. Apply the cure mixture directly to the meat. For bacon, allow the meat to cure for 7 days per inch of thickness. For ham, leave the mixture on for a day and a half per pound. After curing, rub off the salt under running water and allow it to dry.
If the outdoor temperature is expected to rise above 40 degrees Fahrenheit, you will need to allow the meat to cure in a meat locker.
If the outdoor temperature is below freezing, allow an extra day for curing.
3. Smoke cure meat. Wood smoking meat not only adds flavor, but it also protects your meat from pests and spoilage. Cold smoking smokes the meat without cooking it. Hang the meat in a smoke house, light the fire and allow the meat to smoke for 10 to 20 hours. You can purchase a ready-made smoke house or plans to build your own.
Use aromatic woods to add flavor, such as hickory, mesquite, apple, cherry, pear or cranberry-apple.
Woods to avoid include all conifers, crape myrtle, hackberry, sycamore and holly.
4. Jerky meat. To make meat jerky, you can use a store-bought dehydrator. However, if you do not have one of those, you can do it in your oven by cooking it at a low temperature for several hours. Choose an inexpensive cut of meat, such as brisket. Trim the fat and slice thin strips against the grain. Season the meat with salt and pepper, and if desired, marinate it overnight with diluted barbecue sauce. Arrange the slices on a cooking grate, and put them in the oven at 170 degrees Fahrenheit for two to six hours.
Line your oven with foil for easy cleanup, Prop the oven door open with a wooden spoon to allow air to circulate.
Partially freeze meat before slicing to make it easier to slice.
5. Can fruits and vegetables. Canning involves heating food in a glass jar to remove the air and prevent spoilage. Choose from two methods to can food: water bath and pressure canning. The method you choose depends on the kind of food you want to can. Water bath canning is for jams, jellies and for acidic foods such as tomatoes, berries or cucumbers in vinegar. For main meal foods such as meat, beans and other vegetables, use pressure canning. To ensure safety, always use tried and true recipes.
6. Can with the water bath method. Gather a deep pot with a lid, a rack that fits into the pot, glass preserving jars, lids and bands and a jar lifter. Check the jars and lids for nicks and scratches which would prevent proper canning and allow spoilage to occur. Heat the jars in a pot of boiling water or in the dishwasher. Prepare your recipe and fill the hot jars with the food. Place the lids on the jars and immerse them in boiling water. Make sure the water covers the jars by 1 to 2 inches. Leave them in the water for the amount of time stated in the recipe. Remove the jars with a jar lifter and allow them to sit for 12 to 24 hours.
The lids should not flex up and down when pressed. If they do flex or if you can easily remove the lid, then the jar did not seal properly.
7. Can with pressure canning. You will need a store-bought pressure canner. As with water bath canning, check the jars for nicks and scratches, and heat them in boiling water or the dishwasher. Prepare the food according to your recipe and fill hot jars with the food. Place the jars in the canner and lock it in place. Vent the steam according to the manufacturer’s directions. Process the jars at the recommended pounds pressure stated in your recipe. Adjust for altitude. When done, remove the jars, allow them to sit for 12 to 24 hours and check the seals.

Method 4 Securing Your Home.
1. Choose your shelter type. A standalone shelter is a separate building that is designed to withstand natural disasters or man-made weapons or attacks. An internal shelter is a room within your home that has been designed to protect you from the elements or other hazards. In an economic collapse, power systems may fail and looters and scavengers may threaten your home. Take precautions to protect yourself.
2. Create two sources of electricity. One source could be solar. Hook it up to your home and then run the system discretely underground. The second source might be an underground generator. You will use this in the event of a total loss of power. Keep your energy sources hidden underground to protect them.
3. Choose the size of your shelter. The size of your shelter depends on how many people you need to protect and the size of your food stockpile. An adult needs 10 cups of water and 1,200 calories per day. In addition, each adult needs 10 cubic feet of natural atmosphere to have enough air to breathe, so you will need an air system that lets in and filters fresh air. If you are planning to stay in the shelter long-term, invest now in making it large and comfortable enough for everyone. If it is only going to be a short-term living space, you don’t have to make it as comfortable.
4. Keep the location of your shelter secret. Protect yourself from others who were not prepared and may want to take what you have. Don’t let your neighbors see you creating a shelter. You can choose a remote location, but it may be difficult to access it later. If you choose to make a safe room in your home, create a secret entrance from within your house. This way others will not be alerted to your shelter.
5. Purchase self-defense tools. Self-defense tools are generally non-lethal. They are used to fend off an attack by rendering the attacker ineffective. You can use everyday objects, such as baseball bats or keys. But these may not be as effective as tools designed for your protection.
Mace and pepper spray can be sprayed into an attacker’s face to give you time to get away.
Hand-held stun guns deliver a large electrical shock to stun the attacker.
Taser devices shoot two small probes a distance of up to 15 feet that transmit an electrical charge to the attacker.
Sonic alarms create a loud noise to let others know that you are in trouble.
6. Set up an alarm system in your home. Wireless security systems are easy and inexpensive to install and maintain. Home alert alarm systems notify you if an intruder is approaching your home. Hidden cameras allow you to see internal and exterior areas in your home where an intruder may be present. Phone dialing alarms can be installed inside or outside your home and allow you to contact authorities with the push of a button. Child monitoring alarms notify you if your child goes beyond a certain perimeter of your home.
7. Purchase weapons. Weapons can be used for either self-defense or for hunting. A crossbow is easy to shoot and aim. It’s also quiet, so it doesn’t alert people or animals to your presence. A long-range rifle allows you to hunt game from a distance. A machete can clear brush or fend off a dangerous animal. A slingshot is good for hunting small animals. Have pistols on hand and teach others to shoot, reload, shoot from cover and work as a team for protection. If you plan to have lethal weapons, be sure to train everyone who has access to them in the proper use of these weapons.
Stockpile appropriate ammunition and arrows for your weapons.
8. Gather necessary tools. Having the right tools on hand can make the difference between surviving and not surviving during any kind of disaster. You not only want to be able to protect your home, but you also need to be able to build anything you might need.
Have a bolt-cutter on hand to cut through fences and wire.
Picks, shovels, axes, chain saws and bow saws allow you dig and gather and cut wood.
Rope and paracords are essential for assembling simple and complex survival systems.
Tarps are necessary as ground covers or for weather-proofing, Stock pile nails and plywood for building and repairs.
Keep large trash bags for waste disposal, Have gasoline for fuel or a fire starter, Get a propane stove for cooking, Have a fishing rod for catching fish.

Method 5 Preparing Your Family.
1. Make sure everyone is aware of the situation. In order to prepare for economic collapse, you will have to make sure that your whole family is on board with your preparations. This means informing them in honest terms what is about to happen and telling them what they should be doing. Make sure everyone takes the situation seriously. Otherwise, they will not be mentally prepared in the event that economic collapse actually occurs.
2. Check that each family member is individually prepared. Inform each other family member of the steps you have taken to prepare your finances, essential supplies, food, and shelter. Instruct them on doing the same. Make sure each family member has also packed a bag of essentials that they can grab if they are forced to leave the house without notice. This bag should contain enough survival essentials to last between 72 hours and a week.
3. Train family members in survival skills. Your immediate family members should be aware of how to handle weapons safely, perform basic first aid, hunt or grow food, and maintain your shelter. If they don't already have these skills, take the time to instruct them thoroughly. You never know when you might have to depend on them.
4. Work with another family or group. In addition to your immediate family, consider including other family members, neighbors, or a community group (like a church group) in your preparations. Make sure that these are people who are reliable and will put in work for the benefit of the group. You will be safer and work more efficiently if you can increase the size of your group.

Method 6 Anticipating a Financial Crisis.
1. Monitor the financial markets. Calm markets tend to go up. But if the market gets choppy, meaning prices swing up and down considerably, it will likely decline. Don’t be fooled if he market soars for one day. Big ups and downs in the markets are a red flag signaling an overall decline.
2. Keep an eye on global 10 year bond yields. Global bonds are bonds that are issued in several countries at once by governments or large multi-national companies. When 10 year global bond yields drop, it is in indicator that investors are withdrawing their money to put it in safer investments. This happened before the financial crisis that happened in 2008. A significant drop in 10 year global bond yields means that investors think a financial crisis is coming.
3. Pay attention to oil prices. The fluctuation of oil prices has a macroeconomic impact. When oil prices increase, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) goes up too. The GDP is a quantitative measure of the nation’s total activity. If it is increasing, then the value of goods and services is also going up. If periods of high oil prices signal good times for the world economy, then the opposite is also true. If oil prices are on the decline, expect the GDP and the financial markets to also decline.
4. Understand the relationship between inflation and economic growth. Economic growth tends to lead to inflation. As demand increases, prices are driven up and unemployment falls. As unemployment falls, wages increase. As wages increase, people spend more, which leads to inflation of prices. Conversely, when economic activity slows down, so does inflation. Therefore, if the price of goods and services slows dramatically, it could signal a major downturn in the economy.
5. Monitor the price of commercial commodities. Commercial commodities are goods exchanged during commerce, such as gold, lumber, beef or natural gas. Changes in the prices of commodities affect the United States economy and the value of the U.S. dollar. An increase in commodity prices is correlated with an increase in inflation. Increased inflation correlates with economic growth. However, if commodity prices drop, inflation slows, which indicates economic decline.

Community Q&A.

Question : Where can I join a survival group to prepare for the potential economic collapse?
Answer : Facebook groups are the best place to start. Search for survival groups.
Question : Why would I pay off my debt first? If the economy collapses, my creditors' well being will take a backseat to my family's well being.
Answer : If you owe money to creditors, you would be putting your family at risk during such a time if you failed to keep paying back debts. Creditors are enabled by law to come and claim some of your assets if you have stopped paying them in order to protect your family's well being. In a time like this, assets are everything.
Question : Is an investment in gold and/or silver appropriate? If so, what are your recommendations, and why?
Answer : While gold used to be the standard for currency, it is still very valuable during recessions. Purchasing gold or silver can be a great way to diversify your investments.
Question : If I have a high car payment, and my IRA is large enough to pay off the vehicle, should I close the IRA and pay off the car?
Answer : Sell your expensive car and purchase an older, reliable vehicle with cash. One should never finance an item that depreciates in value, and keep your IRA.
Question : When is the economic collapse expected? In 2018 when bond yields drop?
Answer : No one really knows, but we can predict certain fluctuations (presidential elections or new terms, corporations moving out of the country, major world events, etc.) It's just best to be prepared for it with at minimum a month's supply of essentials.
Question : Should I get out of all stocks if preparing for economic collapse? Should I pay off my mortgage if I have the stock to do so?
Answer : No. Hedge your bets by keeping your portfolio 60% in stock index funds and 40% in bond index funds. I recommend Vanguard because of the low fees. Also, do not pay off your mortgage. You need cash flow. In a collapse, you will have the moral authority to defend your home with violence if necessary.
Question : With a low fixed rate mortgage, should I have my house paid off when the U.S. dollar crashes?
Answer : If you can, hold onto the cash needed to pay off your mortgage. When the dollar crashes, it won't be worth much for buying anything, but the bank still has to take it for your mortgage.
Question : What is the best way to reduce my losses on a savings account if the currency is devalued?
Answer : The best way is to not have a savings account at all. You have more liquidity keeping your money in your checking account. So take that money out of your savings account and open up another checking account with a debit card. Do not use it.

June 02, 2020

How to Find a Buyer for Your Annuity

How to Find a Buyer for Your Annuity.

Although an annuity is meant to provide steady income, particularly when you retire, there are circumstances under which you might decide to sell your annuity. For example, you might decide to sell your annuity in order to buy a home, invest in a business, or to cover the costs of an emergency. Perhaps you've done the math and discovered that your annuity isn't the best most profitable option for you, and you'd like to reinvest. To find the right buyer for your annuity, look for buyers who can give you the terms you desire. If time permits, get competing offers rather than going for the first buyer you find.

Part 1 Evaluating Your Annuity.
1. Determine whether or not your annuity is transferable. If your annuity is not transferable, then you cannot sell it under any circumstances. Check your contract to see if it is transferable. If you are trying to get immediate funds, list your nontransferable annuity as an asset or form of income and apply for a bank loan.
2. Determine if your annuity is a structured settlement. Check your contract or consult your accountant to learn about the laws in your state. Most states have laws that protect people trying to sell their structured annuity. If your state has a Structured Settlement Protection Act, your transaction will have to be approved by a state court. The Periodic Payment Settlement Act protects those who received a cash sum as a result of personal injury and wrongful death lawsuits, from spending the awarded money too quickly, which may then force them to turn to public assistance to meet their needs.
Don’t try to sell a structured annuity by yourself, especially if you are living in a state that does not have a structured annuity protection law. Talk to a trusted broker and attorney before you proceed.
3. Evaluate your annuity. Before you shop around for annuity buyers, find out what the resale value of your annuity is. Hire an accountant if you are unclear on the details of your investment and its relative worth. Keep in mind that selling your annuity always result in your receiving a lower amount of money from your annuity. You will get a lump-sum payment that is adjusted with a discount rate, meaning that you'll get about 8 to 14 percent less than you would if you waited for the payments.
4. Understand the tax implications of selling your annuity. All annuities offer tax-deferral from the time of your initial investment. Your distributions, however, are taxable. This means that your annuity grows tax-free in the accumulation phase, but is taxed as distributions are made to you. These payments are taxed as ordinary income.
Gains made by selling your annuity before it matures are taxable as ordinary income. However, losses on the sale are not tax-deductible as investment losses.
If you withdraw from an annuity before age 59.5, you are also charged a 10% tax penalty. However, exceptions are made in various cases, such as the death or disability of the annuity holder.
You can also trade your annuity for another qualified annuity contract without paying taxes on the first annuity. These "1035" exchanges can be tricky, so check with a tax accountant or investment adviser before proceeding.

Part 2 Finding a Buyer.
1. Search for potential annuity buyers. Your best source for locating a potential buyers is the insurance agent that first sold you the annuity. They understand the market well and will likely have contacts for this sort of transaction. Additionally, they may also charge you a reduced commission for finding a buyer, as you already paid them a commission when you purchased the annuity. Alternately, you can search for an annuity buyer online. Before working with any of these companies, make sure that they:
Have positive, independent reviews of their services.
Have excellent customer service.
Can make a competitive offer for your annuity.
Are licensed to conduct business and follow all appropriate regulations.
Communicate timelines and figures in a transparent way.
Recommend that you first consult with a financial professional before selling.
Try checking with the Better Business Bureau (BBB) to identify whether or not the company is reputable. Companies with poor ratings from the BBB should be avoided.
Some reputable buyers of annuities include JG Wentworth, Catalina Structured Funding, Peachtree Financial, and Stone Street Capital. These companies can be contacted by phone or through their respective websites.
2. Hire a broker. If you are having trouble finding potential buyers, or if you can't find the price you think is reasonable, hire a broker. You’ll have to pay a brokerage fee, but you may stand to gain from the expertise of the broker's negotiations. Choose your broker carefully. Check their certifications to ensure that they are licensed to negotiate the sort of sale you want to make.
Ask the broker you want to hire for a quote. If they quote you a percentage, calculate it before you agree.
Look up the name of a broker you haven't worked with before. Any violations or complaints they have might be online.
3. Get offers for your annuity. Try to obtain offers from at least five companies before you choose. When you find companies online, use their quote form to get a free quote from them. A quote is not necessarily the amount you would receive, and it may not include the fee that may be deducted when a settlement is reached.
When you fill out the free quote form, give them only the standard information. Your name, email address and the name of your annuity should be the only information they ask for.
Do not give your social security number, bank information, or pay any fees to obtain a free quote.
Give yourself as much time as you can to make the sale. A rushed sale is less likely to get you a good deal.
4. Pick the best offer. Getting an offer of about 80% of the value of your annuity would be considered a good deal. Do not take a deal in which your buyer expects you to pay fees out of pocket before a settlement is agreed upon. Once you have finalized your agreement, all agreed upon court costs, legal fees and commissions should be deducted from the final settlement.
5. Gather your paperwork. To sell your annuity, you will need copies of your original annuity application and your annuity policy. If you are already collecting on your annuity, you will need your most recent disbursement check and tax return. If you have a settlement agreement, you will need a copy of that. Bring your valid government issued id, such as a passport or driver's license, and a written declaration that you are selling your annuity of your own free will.
Gather any other documentation your buyer requires, such as a copy of a court judgment for a structured annuity, or copies of any release agreements.

Part 3 Deciding What Kind of Sale to Make.
1. Decide what type of funding you are trying to get from your sale. Investigate the various ways annuity buyouts are made. Remember that no matter what kind of deal you make, the buyer will get the better deal in the long term. You will likely be offered anywhere from 60% to 85% of the value of your annuity. With this in mind, consider alternatives to selling your annuity.
If you are just selling your annuity to free up some cash, taking out a loan might better serve your purposes.
2. Consider selling as a straight purchase. If you sell as a straight purchase, the buyer will give you one lump-sum payment for your annuity. You will not go on to collect future payments. Choose to sell as a straight purchase if you are trying to get the largest immediate sum possible, or if you have determined that your annuity is not serving its purpose.
If you sell an annuity contract, you will have to pay ordinary income tax on your annuity's earnings.
3. Consider selling as a partial purchase. In this case, the buyer purchases your immediate annuity payments for a set period. At the end of that time, you once again collect your annuity payments as scheduled. Consider this option if you have a temporary shortage of cash, but would like to continue investing in your retirement.
4. Consider selling as a reverse purchase. Sell several years of your annuity. For example, if you are now receiving $1,000 per month for the next 15 years, sell your payments from years 5 through 10 only. You will get a lump sum for those years, but still receive your current payments up through year 4. You will then receive no monthly payments in years 5 through 10, but they will resume in years 11 through 15.
Know that this will result in a lower overall payout from your annuity. You will get the money for the sold years up front, but it will be lower than the total value of the payments from those years.
You also need to be sure of the value of the future payments before any deals are made.
This might be a good option if you need money now, but know you will be able to support yourself during an upcoming time period.
5. Consider selling as split purchases. If your buyer makes a split purchase, they will receive part of your monthly payment. If you only need $500 a month and your annuity payment is $1,000, sell half your annuity; you will get an immediate lump sum for the half you don't need, and continue to receive monthly payments of $500.
Even though you've only sold half the annuity, you will still pay ordinary income taxes on the deferred earnings and any gains made on the sale.

Tips. 

Give yourself as much time as possible to make the best sale. Let the companies you deal with know that you are making casual inquiries. If you appear to be shopping around without rushing, you will be more likely to get better, more competitive offers.

May 04, 2020