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Charlie Munger on Getting Rich, Wisdom, Focus, Fake Knowledge and More.

“In the chronicles of American financial history,” writes David Clark in The Tao of Charlie Munger: A Compilation of Quotes from Berkshire Hathaway’s Vice Chairman on Life, Business, and the Pursuit of Wealth, “Charlie Munger will be seen as the proverbial enigma wrapped in a paradox—he is both a mystery and a contradiction at the same time.”

On one hand, Munger received an elite education and it shows: He went to Cal Tech to train as a meteorologist for the Second World War and then attended Harvard Law School and eventually opened his own law firm. That part of his success makes sense.
Yet here’s a man who never took a single course in economics, business, marketing, finance, psychology, or accounting, and managed to become one of the greatest, most admired, and most honorable businessmen of our age. He was noted by essentially all observers for the originality of his thoughts, especially about business and human behavior. You don’t learn that in law school, at Harvard or anywhere else.
Bill Gates said of him: “He is truly the broadest thinker I have ever encountered.” His business partner Warren Buffett put it another way: “He comes equipped for rationality… I would say that to try and typecast Charlie in terms of any other human that I can think of, no one would fit. He’s got his own mold.”
How does such an extreme result happen? How is such an original and unduly capable mind formed? In the case of Munger, it’s clearly a combination of unusual genetics and an unusual approach to learning and life.
While we can’t have his genetics, we can try to steal his approach to rationality. There’s almost no limit to the amount one could learn from studying the Munger mind, so let’s at least start with a rundown of some of his best ideas.


Wisdom and Circles of Competence.
“Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.”
“Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom.”
Identify your circle of competence and use your knowledge, when possible, to stay away from things you don’t understand. There are no points for difficulty at work or in life.  Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.
Of course this principle relates to another of Munger’s sayings: “People are trying to be smart—all I am trying to do is not to be idiotic, but it’s harder than most people think.”
And this reminds me of perhaps my favorite Mungerism of all time, the very quote that sits right beside my desk:
“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”

Divergence.
“Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean.”
Here’s a simple axiom to live by: If you do what everyone else does, you’re going to get the same results that everyone else gets. This means that, taking out luck (good or bad), if you act average, you’re going to be average. If you want to move away from average, you must diverge. You must be different. And if you want to outperform others, you must be different and correct. As Munger would say, “How could it be otherwise?”

Know When to Fold ’Em.
“Life, in part, is like a poker game, wherein you have to learn to quit sometimes when holding a much-loved hand—you must learn to handle mistakes and new facts that change the odds.”
Mistakes are an opportunity to grow. How we handle adversity is up to us. This is how we become personally antifragile.

False Models.
Echoing Einstein, who said that “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts,” Munger said this about his and Buffett’s shift to acquiring high-quality businesses for Berkshire Hathaway:
“Once we’d gotten over the hurdle of recognizing that a thing could be a bargain based on quantitative measures that would have horrified Graham, we started thinking about better businesses.”

Being Lazy.
“Sit on your ass. You’re paying less to brokers, you’re listening to less nonsense, and if it works, the tax system gives you an extra one, two, or three percentage points per annum.”
Time is a friend to a good business and the enemy of the poor business. It’s also the friend of knowledge and the enemy of the new and novel. As Seneca said, “Time discovers truth.”

Investing Is a Perimutuel System.
“You’re looking for a mispriced gamble,” says Munger. “That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.”  At another time, he added: “You should remember that good ideas are rare— when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.”
May the odds forever be in your favor. Actually, learning properly is one way you can tilt the odds in your favor.

Focus.
When asked about his success, Munger says, “I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”
Long attention spans allow for a deep understanding of subjects. When combined with deliberate practice, focus allows you to increase your skills and get out of your rut. The Art of Focus is a divergent and correct strategy that can help you identify where the leverage points are and apply your efforts toward them.

Fake Knowledge.
“Smart people aren’t exempt from professional disasters from overconfidence.”
We’re so used to outsourcing our thinking to others that we’ve forgotten what it’s like to really understand something from all perspectives. We’ve forgotten just how much work that takes. The path of least resistance, however, is just a click away. Fake knowledge, which comes from reading headlines and skimming the news, seems harmless, but it’s not. It makes us overconfident. It’s better to remember a simple trick: anything you’re getting easily through Google or Twitter is likely to be widely known and should not be given undue weight.
However, Munger adds, “If people weren’t wrong so often, we wouldn’t be so rich.”

Sit Quietly.
Echoing Pascal, who said some version of “All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone,” Munger adds an investing twist: “It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait.”
The ability to be alone with your thoughts and turn ideas over and over, without giving in to Do Something syndrome, affects so many of us. A perfectly reasonable option is to hold your ground and await more information.

Deal With Reality.
“I think that one should recognize reality even when one doesn’t like it; indeed, especially when one doesn’t like it.”
Munger clearly learned from Joseph Tussman’s wisdom. This means facing harsh truths that you might prefer to ignore. It means meeting the world on the world’s terms, not according to how you wish it would be. If this causes temporary pain, so be it. “Your pain,” writes Kahil Gibran in The Prophet, “is the breaking of the shell that encloses your understanding.”

There Is No Free Lunch.
We like quick solutions that don’t require a lot of effort. We’re drawn to the modern equivalent of an old hustler selling an all-curing tonic. However, the world does not work that way. Munger expands:
“There isn’t a single formula. You need to know a lot about business and human nature and the numbers… It is unreasonable to expect that there is a magic system that will do it for you.”
Acquiring knowledge is hard work. It’s reading and adding to your knowledge so it compounds. It’s going deep and developing fluency, something Darwin knew well.

Maximization/Minimization.
“In business we often find that the winning system goes almost ridiculously far in maximizing and or minimizing one or a few variables—like the discount warehouses of Costco.”
When everything is a priority, nothing is a priority. Attempting to maximize competing variables is a recipe for disaster. Picking one variable and relentlessly focusing on it, which is an effective strategy, diverges from the norm. It’s hard to compete with businesses that have correctly identified the right variables to maximize or minimize. When you focus on one variable, you’ll increase the odds that you’re quick and nimble — and can respond to changes in the terrain.

Map and Terrain.
“At Berkshire there has never been a master plan. Anyone who wanted to do it, we fired because it takes on a life of its own and doesn’t cover new reality. We want people taking into account new information.”
Plans are maps that we become attached to. Once we’ve told everyone there is a plan and what that plan is, especially multi-year plans, we’re psychologically more likely to stick to it because coming out and changing it would be admitting we were wrong. This makes it harder for us to change our strategies when we need to, so we’re stacking the odds against ourselves. Detailed five-year plans (that will clearly be wrong) are as disastrous as overly general five-year plans (which can never be wrong).
Scrap the plan, isolate the key variables that you need to maximize and minimize, and follow the agile path blazed by Henry Singleton and followed by Buffett and Munger.

The Keys to Good Government.
There are three keys: honesty, effectiveness, and efficiency. Munger says:
“In a democracy, everyone takes turns. But if you really want a lot of wisdom, it’s better to concentrate decisions and process in one person. It’s no accident that Singapore has a much better record, given where it started, than the United States. There, power was concentrated in an enormously talented person, Lee Kuan Yew, who was the Warren Buffett of Singapore.”
Lee Kuan Yew put it this way: “With few exceptions, democracy has not brought good government to new developing countries. … What Asians value may not necessarily be what Americans or Europeans value. Westerners value the freedoms and liberties of the individual. As an Asian of Chinese cultural background, my values are for a government which is honest, effective, and efficient.”

One Step At a Time.
“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day—if you live long enough—most people get what they deserve.”
An incremental approach to life reminds one of the nature of compounding. There will always be someone going faster than you, but you can learn from the Darwinian guide to overachieving your natural IQ. In order for this approach to be effective, you need a long axis of time as well as continuous incremental progress.

Getting Rich.
“The desire to get rich fast is pretty dangerous.”
Getting rich is a function of being happy with what you have, spending less than you make, and time.

Mental Models.
“Know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely—all of them, not just a few.”
Mental models are the big ideas from multiple disciplines. While most people agree that these are worth knowing, they often think they can identify which models will add the most value, and in so doing they miss something important. There is a reason that the “know-nothing” index fund almost always beats the investors who think they know. Understanding this idea in greater detail will change a lot of things, including how you read. Acquiring the big ideas — without selectivity — is the way to mimic a know-nothing index fund.

Know-it-alls.
“I try to get rid of people who always confidently answer questions about which they don’t have any real knowledge.”
Few things have made as much of a difference in my life as systemically removing (and when that’s not possible, reducing the importance of) people who think they know the answer to everything.

Stoic Resolve.
“There’s no way that you can live an adequate life without many mistakes. In fact, one trick in life is to get so you can handle mistakes. Failure to handle psychological denial is a common way for people to go broke.”
While we all make mistakes, it’s how we respond to failure that defines us.


Thinking.
“We all are learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. You must force yourself to consider arguments on the other side.”
“It’s bad to have an opinion you’re proud of if you can’t state the arguments for the other side better than your opponents. This is a great mental discipline.”
Thinking is a lot of work. “My first thought,” William Deresiewicz said in one of my favorite speeches, “is never my best thought. My first thought is always someone else’s; it’s always what I’ve already heard about the subject, always the conventional wisdom.”

Choose Your Associates Wisely.
“Oh, it’s just so useful dealing with people you can trust and getting all the others the hell out of your life. It ought to be taught as a catechism. … [W]ise people want to avoid other people who are just total rat poison, and there are a lot of them.”

August 07, 2020


How Bitcoin Disrupts the Finance Industry .

Cryptocurrencies and their underlying blockchain technology are being touted as the next-big-thing after the creation of the internet. One area where these technologies are likely to have a major impact is the financial sector. The blockchain, as a form of distributed ledger technology (DLT), has the potential to transform well-established financial institutions and bring lower costs, faster execution of transactions, improved transparency, auditability of operations, and other benefits. Cryptocurrencies hold the promise of a new native digital asset class without a central authority.

So what do these technological developments mean for the various players in the sector and end users? “Blockchains have the potential to displace any business activity built on transactions occurring on traditional corporate databases, which is what underlies nearly every financial service function. Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications. DLT is therefore both a great opportunity and also a disruptive threat,” according to Bruce Weber, dean of Lerner College and business administration professor, and Andrew Novocin, professor of electrical and computer engineering, both at the University of Delaware.

Earlier this year, Weber, Novocin, and graduate student Jonathan Wood conducted a literature review on cryptocurrencies and DLT for the SWIFT Institute. Based on this review, the SWIFT institute recently issued a grant to conduct new research on DLT and cryptocurrencies in the financial sector. Weber and Novocin noted that just as disruptors like Amazon, Google, Facebook and Uber built software platforms and thriving businesses thanks to the connectivity provided by internet standards, next-generation startups will build new services and businesses with blockchains. “Many pundits expect blockchain, as a distributed technology, to become the foundation for new services and applications that have completely different rules from those running on hierarchical and controlled databases. Cryptocurrencies are an early example but many others will follow,” they added.

Kartik Hosanagar, a Wharton professor of marketing and operations, information and decisions, pointed out that the financial services sector is full of intermediaries such as banks that help create trust among transacting parties like lenders and borrowers. Blockchain, he said, is a mechanism to create trust without centralized control. “The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies, Hosanagar pointed out that most of the value today is tied to speculative buying rather than actual use cases. But having a currency without a central authority offers “certain unique kinds of protections especially in countries with troubled central banks.” For example, Venezuela’s currency is rapidly losing value. For people who stored their savings in crypto, there was greater protection against such rapid currency devaluations. “Of course, cryptocurrencies have their own instabilities, but they aren’t tied to actions by central banks and that’s particularly relevant in countries and economies where citizens don’t trust their governments and central banks,” he said.

“Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications.”–Bruce Weber and Andrew Novocin

Hosanagar expects the first wave of applications to be rolled out in “private” blockchains where a central authority such as a financial institution and its partners are the only ones with the permission to participate (as opposed to public, permissionless blockchains where participants are anonymous and there is no central authority). Applications in the private blockchains, he said, will be more secure and will offer some of the benefits of decentralized ledgers but will not be radically different from the way things work at present. However, over time, he expects smart contracts (self-executing contracts when requirements are met) to be offered on public blockchain networks like Ethereum. “When securities are traded, intermediaries provide trust, and they charge commissions. Blockchains can help provide such trust in a low-cost manner. But trade of securities is governed by securities laws. Smart contracts offer a way to ensure compliance with the laws. They have great potential because of their ability to reduce costs while being compliant,” says Hosanagar.

According to Weber and Novocin, one area ripe for transformation is reaching consensus on important benchmark rates and prices. At present, they point out, different proprietary indexes are used to determine interest rates and the price of many mainstream assets. Blockchain can transform this. “Think of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and the recent scandals involving manipulation of benchmark values when they are controlled by a single entity that may not be capable of detecting false or fraudulent data. Blockchain could provide greater transparency around the process of creating agreed upon reference prices, and allow more people to participate in the consensus process.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in some areas intermediaries will find their roles reduced as blockchain allows for automation through greater transparency and traceability. In other areas, intermediaries will find themselves well-placed to take advantage of changing needs of their clients, as firms will need help to manage the shift to new standards as well as the greater complexity of open and traceable blockchain infrastructure. Intermediaries in areas that could potentially be disrupted, they said, “should get involved with projects seeking to set the standards, so that they can stay informed and position themselves to profit from becoming the leaders in the operations of the new markets that will emerge.”

Kevin Werbach, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, and author of a forthcoming book The Blockchain and the New Architecture of Trust,  said that it’s usually not helpful to focus on what aspects of a major existing market will be “transformed” or “disrupted” by new technologies. Important technologies, he said, are far more likely to be integrated into the system than replace it. According to Werbach, while some firms will fail to make the transition and some new ones will take hold, “over the long-run, virtually every historic innovation that eliminated some forms of intermediation also created new forms.”

Blockchain will reduce the massive duplication of information that creates delays, conflicts and confusion in many aspects of financial services, Werbach added. For example, when a syndicate of lenders participates in a loan, having one shared ledger means they don’t all need to keep track of it independently. International payments and corporate stock records are other examples where there are huge inefficiencies due to duplicate record-keeping and intermediaries. “End users won’t see the changes in the deep plumbing of financial services, but it will allow new service providers to emerge and new products to be offered,” said Werbach.

Bumps Along the Way

Angela Walch, professor of law at St. Mary’s University School of Law and a research fellow at the Centre for Blockchain Technologies at University College London, offered another perspective. She said there is a lot of excitement about blockchain as a distributed ledger technology for the financial sector because many believe that it offers a better, more efficient and more resilient form of recordkeeping. However, making use of the blockchain is not as simple as just buying new software and running it. “Blockchain technology is, at core, group recordkeeping. To reap its full benefits, one needs all the relevant members of the group to join the system. This requires collaboration with and across businesses, which is a potentially big hurdle, and may be the hurdle that most limits adoption.”

Governance is the biggest challenge in decentralized organizations, said Weber and Novocin. Members participating in a blockchain-supported financial function may have misaligned incentives, and can end up in gridlock, or with a chaotic outcome. They cite the example of the ‘DAO Hack,’ which was the first prominent smart contract project on the Ethereum network to suffer a large loss of funds. The Ethereum community voted to conduct a hard fork (a radical change to the protocol that makes previously invalid blocks/transactions valid or vice-versa) — reversing the transactions after the hack and essentially refunding the DAO investors. This was in effect a breach of Ethereum’s immutability and it left a sizeable minority of the community bitterly dissatisfied. This group viewed the Ethereum community as forsaking its commitment to immutable, permanent records. They refused to acknowledge the hard fork, and maintained the original Ethereum blockchain, now known as Ethereum Classic (whereas the forked version supported by the Ethereum Foundation is simply Ethereum).

“The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”–Kartik Hosanagar

“Distributed organizations serving an open community need to take care to design their governance systems, incentive structures and decision-making processes to create consensus without unduly slowing down the decision-making,” said Weber and Novocin. “Scenario planning or war gaming are worth exploring at the beginning of blockchain projects. Forward planning enables organizations to swiftly respond in a predictable way that is supportive of stakeholders. Publicizing these plans in advance can also build trust and user confidence.”

Cryptocurrency Risks.

Werbach listed a variety of risks and vulnerabilities related to cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin has shown that the fundamental security of its proof-of-work system is sound, but it has major limitations such as limited scalability, massive energy usage and concentration of mining pools. There has been massive theft of cryptocurrencies from the centralized intermediaries that most people use to hold it, and massive fraud by promoters of initial coin offerings and other schemes. Manipulation is widespread on lightly-regulated cryptocurrency exchanges.

For example, roughly half of Bitcoin transactions are with Tether, a “stablecoin” that claims to be backed by U.S. dollars but has never been audited and is involved in highly suspicious behavior. Money laundering and other criminal activity is a serious problem if transactions do not require some check of real-world identities. “There are major efforts to address all of these risks and vulnerabilities. Some are technical, some are business opportunities, and some are regulatory questions. There must be recognition among cryptocurrency proponents that maturation of the industry will require cooperation in many cases with incumbents and regulators,” added Werbach.

Hosanagar cautions that while decentralization offers significant value — and a significant number of miners/validators must verify the transaction for it to be validated — it is still susceptible to collusion. If one or a few companies running lots of miners/validators in a small network collude, they can affect the sanctity of the network. The big risk with cryptocurrencies, he added, is that most activity as of today is ultimately tied to speculation. It’s important for cryptocurrencies to discover a “killer app soon so there is some underlying value created beyond speculation of its future value,” Hosanagar concludes.

The Way Ahead?

Given all these challenges, what is the current mindset in the financial sector towards adopting these new technologies? And, importantly, should one push for wide acceptance and deployment, or is there need for them to stabilize first?

According to Werbach, “It’s not an either-or” choice. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in general, he noted, are immature currently. However, there are some areas where they are already able to be deployed effectively. The best way to work through today’s problems, is “to build working systems and see where difficulties arise,” Werbach said. Looking ahead, integration with law, regulation and governance will be critical. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies represent a new form of trust, he added. They will only succeed if they become sufficiently trustworthy, beyond the basic security of the distributed ledgers. “Law, regulation and governance are three major mechanisms to produce trustworthy systems that scale up to society-wide adoption. We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables. I’m optimistic about that process over time.”

“We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables.”–Kevin Werbach

Walch noted that while there are claims that some consortia are putting ‘blockchain’ systems into production, in many cases it appears that what they are calling a blockchain bears little to no resemblance to the original blockchain technology behind Bitcoin. In many instances, she said, existing shared databases are being called ‘blockchain’ for marketing purposes. “If people do use something they call DLT or blockchain technology in important financial systems, my hope is that they make the decision based on actual capabilities of the tech rather than its widely hyped and generally overstated capabilities,” Walch said. “Permissioned blockchains, which are the variation most likely to be used for financial systems recordkeeping, are very different from public blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum. I hope that a more modest and accurate understanding of the actual characteristics of permissioned blockchains sinks in before they are widely adopted.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies or cryptoassets, Walch said that the financial sector’s interest is “less about recordkeeping and more about a new financial asset that it can make money off of.” She pointed out that at present there is no clarity on how power and accountability work in these systems. The ongoing operation of crypto systems and the value they embed and support is reliant on the competence of, and ethical behavior by, unaccountable software developers and validators. “The financial sector believes it understands and can manage the risks of cryptoassets, but I am less certain and worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class. This has been a bad mixture in the past,” says Walch. “I think it would be more responsible to let cryptosystems exist on their own for a while longer to let more of the kinks get worked out — if they can be; I’m not sure the governance ones can — rather than to rapidly integrate them into the financial system as we seem to be doing.”

“I … worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class.”–Angela Walch

Conversely, Weber and Novocin feel that the financial industry is cautious about the new DLT technology. According to them, to build confidence in new blockchain systems there needs to be transparency around how the processes work and what the benefits are, and in order to secure adoption, they need to be straightforward to use. “Pundits have drawn parallels to the open source Linux operating system. Although only a few individuals use Linux directly, it quietly runs the vast majority of servers and cloud processors across the world. Similarly, early adoption of blockchain will likely happen in the background of business processes. Companies should get involved now, even if it is just to experiment with the concepts. By gaining familiarity with these new tools, they will be ready as the space continues to develop.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in the next few years, many more businesses will implement private blockchains to improve the transparency and traceability of their financial operations, supply chains, inventory management systems and other internal business systems. Clearer standards will be adopted and a few high-profile projects will emerge. Meanwhile, they said, R&D will continue among the many decentralized blockchain projects to invent more scalable public ledgers whether it be blockchain, Tangle, Hashgraph or something new. “Work is needed on better and more efficient consensus models, whether it be a new form of proof-of-stake or proof-of-work, or something else. There are many established groups, startups, companies and research teams that organizations can join, partner with, or support in order to contribute to research and expand their capabilities.”




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July 16, 2020


How the Blockchain Will Impact the Financial Sector.

Cryptocurrencies and their underlying blockchain technology are being touted as the next-big-thing after the creation of the internet. One area where these technologies are likely to have a major impact is the financial sector. The blockchain, as a form of distributed ledger technology (DLT), has the potential to transform well-established financial institutions and bring lower costs, faster execution of transactions, improved transparency, auditability of operations, and other benefits. Cryptocurrencies hold the promise of a new native digital asset class without a central authority.

So what do these technological developments mean for the various players in the sector and end users? “Blockchains have the potential to displace any business activity built on transactions occurring on traditional corporate databases, which is what underlies nearly every financial service function. Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications. DLT is therefore both a great opportunity and also a disruptive threat,” according to Bruce Weber, dean of Lerner College and business administration professor, and Andrew Novocin, professor of electrical and computer engineering, both at the University of Delaware.

Earlier this year, Weber, Novocin, and graduate student Jonathan Wood conducted a literature review on cryptocurrencies and DLT for the SWIFT Institute. Based on this review, the SWIFT institute recently issued a grant to conduct new research on DLT and cryptocurrencies in the financial sector. Weber and Novocin noted that just as disruptors like Amazon, Google, Facebook and Uber built software platforms and thriving businesses thanks to the connectivity provided by internet standards, next-generation startups will build new services and businesses with blockchains. “Many pundits expect blockchain, as a distributed technology, to become the foundation for new services and applications that have completely different rules from those running on hierarchical and controlled databases. Cryptocurrencies are an early example but many others will follow,” they added.

Kartik Hosanagar, a Wharton professor of marketing and operations, information and decisions, pointed out that the financial services sector is full of intermediaries such as banks that help create trust among transacting parties like lenders and borrowers. Blockchain, he said, is a mechanism to create trust without centralized control. “The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies, Hosanagar pointed out that most of the value today is tied to speculative buying rather than actual use cases. But having a currency without a central authority offers “certain unique kinds of protections especially in countries with troubled central banks.” For example, Venezuela’s currency is rapidly losing value. For people who stored their savings in crypto, there was greater protection against such rapid currency devaluations. “Of course, cryptocurrencies have their own instabilities, but they aren’t tied to actions by central banks and that’s particularly relevant in countries and economies where citizens don’t trust their governments and central banks,” he said.

“Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications.”–Bruce Weber and Andrew Novocin

Hosanagar expects the first wave of applications to be rolled out in “private” blockchains where a central authority such as a financial institution and its partners are the only ones with the permission to participate (as opposed to public, permissionless blockchains where participants are anonymous and there is no central authority). Applications in the private blockchains, he said, will be more secure and will offer some of the benefits of decentralized ledgers but will not be radically different from the way things work at present. However, over time, he expects smart contracts (self-executing contracts when requirements are met) to be offered on public blockchain networks like Ethereum. “When securities are traded, intermediaries provide trust, and they charge commissions. Blockchains can help provide such trust in a low-cost manner. But trade of securities is governed by securities laws. Smart contracts offer a way to ensure compliance with the laws. They have great potential because of their ability to reduce costs while being compliant,” says Hosanagar.

According to Weber and Novocin, one area ripe for transformation is reaching consensus on important benchmark rates and prices. At present, they point out, different proprietary indexes are used to determine interest rates and the price of many mainstream assets. Blockchain can transform this. “Think of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and the recent scandals involving manipulation of benchmark values when they are controlled by a single entity that may not be capable of detecting false or fraudulent data. Blockchain could provide greater transparency around the process of creating agreed upon reference prices, and allow more people to participate in the consensus process.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in some areas intermediaries will find their roles reduced as blockchain allows for automation through greater transparency and traceability. In other areas, intermediaries will find themselves well-placed to take advantage of changing needs of their clients, as firms will need help to manage the shift to new standards as well as the greater complexity of open and traceable blockchain infrastructure. Intermediaries in areas that could potentially be disrupted, they said, “should get involved with projects seeking to set the standards, so that they can stay informed and position themselves to profit from becoming the leaders in the operations of the new markets that will emerge.”

Kevin Werbach, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, and author of a forthcoming book The Blockchain and the New Architecture of Trust,  said that it’s usually not helpful to focus on what aspects of a major existing market will be “transformed” or “disrupted” by new technologies. Important technologies, he said, are far more likely to be integrated into the system than replace it. According to Werbach, while some firms will fail to make the transition and some new ones will take hold, “over the long-run, virtually every historic innovation that eliminated some forms of intermediation also created new forms.”


Blockchain will reduce the massive duplication of information that creates delays, conflicts and confusion in many aspects of financial services, Werbach added. For example, when a syndicate of lenders participates in a loan, having one shared ledger means they don’t all need to keep track of it independently. International payments and corporate stock records are other examples where there are huge inefficiencies due to duplicate record-keeping and intermediaries. “End users won’t see the changes in the deep plumbing of financial services, but it will allow new service providers to emerge and new products to be offered,” said Werbach.

Bumps Along the Way

Angela Walch, professor of law at St. Mary’s University School of Law and a research fellow at the Centre for Blockchain Technologies at University College London, offered another perspective. She said there is a lot of excitement about blockchain as a distributed ledger technology for the financial sector because many believe that it offers a better, more efficient and more resilient form of recordkeeping. However, making use of the blockchain is not as simple as just buying new software and running it. “Blockchain technology is, at core, group recordkeeping. To reap its full benefits, one needs all the relevant members of the group to join the system. This requires collaboration with and across businesses, which is a potentially big hurdle, and may be the hurdle that most limits adoption.”

Governance is the biggest challenge in decentralized organizations, said Weber and Novocin. Members participating in a blockchain-supported financial function may have misaligned incentives, and can end up in gridlock, or with a chaotic outcome. They cite the example of the ‘DAO Hack,’ which was the first prominent smart contract project on the Ethereum network to suffer a large loss of funds. The Ethereum community voted to conduct a hard fork (a radical change to the protocol that makes previously invalid blocks/transactions valid or vice-versa) — reversing the transactions after the hack and essentially refunding the DAO investors. This was in effect a breach of Ethereum’s immutability and it left a sizeable minority of the community bitterly dissatisfied. This group viewed the Ethereum community as forsaking its commitment to immutable, permanent records. They refused to acknowledge the hard fork, and maintained the original Ethereum blockchain, now known as Ethereum Classic (whereas the forked version supported by the Ethereum Foundation is simply Ethereum).

“The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”–Kartik Hosanagar

“Distributed organizations serving an open community need to take care to design their governance systems, incentive structures and decision-making processes to create consensus without unduly slowing down the decision-making,” said Weber and Novocin. “Scenario planning or war gaming are worth exploring at the beginning of blockchain projects. Forward planning enables organizations to swiftly respond in a predictable way that is supportive of stakeholders. Publicizing these plans in advance can also build trust and user confidence.”

Cryptocurrency Risks.

Werbach listed a variety of risks and vulnerabilities related to cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin has shown that the fundamental security of its proof-of-work system is sound, but it has major limitations such as limited scalability, massive energy usage and concentration of mining pools. There has been massive theft of cryptocurrencies from the centralized intermediaries that most people use to hold it, and massive fraud by promoters of initial coin offerings and other schemes. Manipulation is widespread on lightly-regulated cryptocurrency exchanges.

For example, roughly half of Bitcoin transactions are with Tether, a “stablecoin” that claims to be backed by U.S. dollars but has never been audited and is involved in highly suspicious behavior. Money laundering and other criminal activity is a serious problem if transactions do not require some check of real-world identities. “There are major efforts to address all of these risks and vulnerabilities. Some are technical, some are business opportunities, and some are regulatory questions. There must be recognition among cryptocurrency proponents that maturation of the industry will require cooperation in many cases with incumbents and regulators,” added Werbach.

Hosanagar cautions that while decentralization offers significant value — and a significant number of miners/validators must verify the transaction for it to be validated — it is still susceptible to collusion. If one or a few companies running lots of miners/validators in a small network collude, they can affect the sanctity of the network. The big risk with cryptocurrencies, he added, is that most activity as of today is ultimately tied to speculation. It’s important for cryptocurrencies to discover a “killer app soon so there is some underlying value created beyond speculation of its future value,” Hosanagar concludes.

The Way Ahead?

Given all these challenges, what is the current mindset in the financial sector towards adopting these new technologies? And, importantly, should one push for wide acceptance and deployment, or is there need for them to stabilize first?

According to Werbach, “It’s not an either-or” choice. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in general, he noted, are immature currently. However, there are some areas where they are already able to be deployed effectively. The best way to work through today’s problems, is “to build working systems and see where difficulties arise,” Werbach said. Looking ahead, integration with law, regulation and governance will be critical. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies represent a new form of trust, he added. They will only succeed if they become sufficiently trustworthy, beyond the basic security of the distributed ledgers. “Law, regulation and governance are three major mechanisms to produce trustworthy systems that scale up to society-wide adoption. We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables. I’m optimistic about that process over time.”

“We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables.”–Kevin Werbach

Walch noted that while there are claims that some consortia are putting ‘blockchain’ systems into production, in many cases it appears that what they are calling a blockchain bears little to no resemblance to the original blockchain technology behind Bitcoin. In many instances, she said, existing shared databases are being called ‘blockchain’ for marketing purposes. “If people do use something they call DLT or blockchain technology in important financial systems, my hope is that they make the decision based on actual capabilities of the tech rather than its widely hyped and generally overstated capabilities,” Walch said. “Permissioned blockchains, which are the variation most likely to be used for financial systems recordkeeping, are very different from public blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum. I hope that a more modest and accurate understanding of the actual characteristics of permissioned blockchains sinks in before they are widely adopted.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies or cryptoassets, Walch said that the financial sector’s interest is “less about recordkeeping and more about a new financial asset that it can make money off of.” She pointed out that at present there is no clarity on how power and accountability work in these systems. The ongoing operation of crypto systems and the value they embed and support is reliant on the competence of, and ethical behavior by, unaccountable software developers and validators. “The financial sector believes it understands and can manage the risks of cryptoassets, but I am less certain and worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class. This has been a bad mixture in the past,” says Walch. “I think it would be more responsible to let cryptosystems exist on their own for a while longer to let more of the kinks get worked out — if they can be; I’m not sure the governance ones can — rather than to rapidly integrate them into the financial system as we seem to be doing.”

“I … worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class.”–Angela Walch

Conversely, Weber and Novocin feel that the financial industry is cautious about the new DLT technology. According to them, to build confidence in new blockchain systems there needs to be transparency around how the processes work and what the benefits are, and in order to secure adoption, they need to be straightforward to use. “Pundits have drawn parallels to the open source Linux operating system. Although only a few individuals use Linux directly, it quietly runs the vast majority of servers and cloud processors across the world. Similarly, early adoption of blockchain will likely happen in the background of business processes. Companies should get involved now, even if it is just to experiment with the concepts. By gaining familiarity with these new tools, they will be ready as the space continues to develop.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in the next few years, many more businesses will implement private blockchains to improve the transparency and traceability of their financial operations, supply chains, inventory management systems and other internal business systems. Clearer standards will be adopted and a few high-profile projects will emerge. Meanwhile, they said, R&D will continue among the many decentralized blockchain projects to invent more scalable public ledgers whether it be blockchain, Tangle, Hashgraph or something new. “Work is needed on better and more efficient consensus models, whether it be a new form of proof-of-stake or proof-of-work, or something else. There are many established groups, startups, companies and research teams that organizations can join, partner with, or support in order to contribute to research and expand their capabilities.”




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July 16, 2020

How to Prepare for Economic Collapse.


An economic collapse means a breakdown of the national economy. It would be characterized by a long-term downturn in economic activity, increased poverty and a disruption of the social order, including protests, riots and possibly violence. In some cases, this collapse would be akin to a deep recession, with society still functioning basically as normal (just with more poverty). However, it could be much worse. You should prepare for the worst, but adjust your actions to the actual severity of the collapse. You can prepare for an economic collapse by preparing financially, stocking up on the essentials, and monitoring the economic indicators.

Method 1 Preparing Your Finances.
1. Start an emergency fund. If you are living paycheck to paycheck and you lose your job during an economic collapse, you are at risk for losing your home and living in poverty. It won’t be easy to find another job and replace your income. Your goal should be to save up enough to cover six months of expenses in your emergency fund.
If you are trying to get out of debt, save up an emergency fund of $1,000 and then apply all of your extra income to your debt. Once your debt is paid off, you can divert more money into your emergency fund.
Keep your emergency fund separate from your checking account so that you are not tempted to use the money. Put it in a low-risk, interest-bearing account such as a savings account, money market account or certificate of deposit (CD).
On the other hand, a complete economic collapse would leave you unable to access your bank account, because of the crash of the financial system. Additionally, your money may become useless or extremely devalued. Consider stocking other commodities that you could barter with in an economic collapse, like alcohol, precious metals (gold and silver), and fuel.
2. Have cash on hand. Depending on where you have it, money in your emergency fund might be hard to liquidate. Bonds, for example, must be sold, and other investments like CD’s might charge fees for early withdrawal. Also, if you have a savings account with an online bank instead of a brick-and-mortar institution, it might take several days to withdraw your money. It’s important to have cash that you can access easily, either from a savings account or a cash box in your home. This can tide you over in an emergency until you can access money in your emergency fund.
3. Generate an additional source of income. Start a home business as a second source of income. If you lose your job because of an economic collapse, it might be difficult or even impossible to find another job. Having an alternative source of income can help you to keep your home and avoid poverty. Choose your business idea based on skills that you have and things that you enjoy doing. In addition, think about how likely it will be that people will require these services in an economic collapse; people may need basic necessities like clean water or food more than they need an interior decorator.
Provide services to people in their homes, such as house cleaning, home organization, meal preparation, or interior decorating.
Sell goods you produce, such as baked goods, custom clothing or jewelry.
4. Get out of debt. In a financial collapse, many people are going to lose their jobs and their homes. To prepare for this possibility, you should make a plan to get out of debt as quickly as possible. This way, if you do lose your job, you don’t have to worry about finding a way to pay these bills. The worst kind of debt to have is credit card debt. Because of the high interest rates that many people have, carrying a balance on a credit card can cost you a great deal of money.
Create a budget in order to track your income and expenses. Make a plan to have a surplus of money left over at the end of the month to apply towards your debt. This means reducing your expenses and possibly finding additional work to supplement your income.
Organize your debt so you can make a plan to pay it off. You can choose from a few different methods for planning how to pay off your debt. Whichever method you choose, it is important to stick with it.
One method is to order your debts from smallest to biggest, regardless of the interest rate, and pay off the smallest debts first. This helps you build momentum.
Another method is laddering, which means paying off the debt with the highest interest rates first. This makes the most sense mathematically because it reduces the amount of interest expense you pay in the long-term.
That said, in a true economic collapse, your creditors would likely have other things to worry about than just finding you and recovering your debts. Additionally, currency may be greatly devalued or completely useless, meaning that the amount stated on your debt balance would be equally depressed or meaningless.

Method 2 Storing the Essentials.
1. Store emergency water. In the event of an economic collapse, it is possible that your power and water supply might be interrupted, or that you will not be able to pay for these things. You will need a supply of clean water for drinking, cooking and hygiene. You can purchase bottles of water or store water in your own containers. If you run out of water, you can take steps to sanitize contaminated water.
Store at least one gallon of water per person for a minimum of three days or for up to two weeks. Don’t forget to include pets in this equation.
If you are storing water in your own containers, wash them first with dish soap and water and sanitize them with a solution of 1 teaspoon of liquid chlorine bleach to a quart of water.
To make water safe, you can boil it and filter it through a clean cloth, paper towel or coffee filter.
2. Stockpile food. The kind of food you store up for an emergency is different from the groceries you purchase each week. You need to get food that is non-perishable, does not have to be refrigerated and will provide you with the nutrition you need to survive. It may be very different from the food you are used to eating, but you will be glad you have it if you ever need it.
Purchase food that does not have to be refrigerated or frozen so you don’t have to worry about power outages. These foods include canned goods, peanut butter and beef or turkey jerky.
Include foods highly nutritious foods that are easy to store, such as dried foods, nuts, beans, canned meat and vegetables and powdered milk.
For comfort foods, avoid snack foods that will quickly expire. Instead, stock up on spaghetti and spaghetti sauce, soups, sugar and honey for canning and baking, dried fruit, coffee and tea and hard candy.
If necessary, stock pile baby food and formula, Don’t forget to include pet food if you have pets.
Keep a manual can opener with your stockpile.
3. Start a garden. A garden allows you to continually have fresh, nutritious food to supplement your emergency food supply. Also, in an economic crisis the cost of living might skyrocket. Having a garden will help you to save money on your grocery bills. It will also allow you to be self-sufficient should a food shortage result from the financial collapse.
If you don’t have a lot of space, consider starting a container garden.
If you don’t have good soil, purchase humus soil or top soil. Add peat moss, composted manure and plant fertilizers.
Choose vegetables and herbs that are easy to grow, including beans and peas, carrots, greens like lettuce, cabbage, spinach and kale, potatoes and sweet potatoes, squash, tomatoes, broccoli, berries and melons.
4. Create an emergency kit. This is a collection of household items you might need in an emergency. In the event of an economic collapse, you may not be able to shop for these supplies, so it’s important to have them on hand. Keep your supplies in a container that’s easy to carry in case you have to evacuate for some reason.
Include an extra set of car keys, blankets, matches, a multi-use tool, maps of the area, a flashlight, a battery-powered or hand-cranked radio, extra batteries, matches and a cell phone and chargers.
Have some household liquid bleach on hand for disinfecting.
Make copies of all important documents, such as proof of address, deed/lease to home, passports, birth certificates and insurance policies.
Have a list of family and emergency contact numbers, Include baby supplies such as baby food, formula, diapers and bottles.
Remember pet supplies like food, collars, leashes and food bowls.
5. Gather first aid and medical supplies. You can purchase a first aid kit or put one together yourself. Either way, make sure it has all of the necessary supplies. Include personal items such as medications for yourself and members of your family. Check the kit regularly to make sure nobody has used any of the supplies. Also, check the expiration dates and replace expired items.
Keep a first aid manual with your first aid kit.
Include dressings and bandages, such as adhesive bandages in various sizes, sterile gauze pads and a gauze roll, adhesive tape, elastic bandages and sterile cotton balls.
Add equipment and other supplies, like latex or non-latex gloves, instant cold packs, a thermometer, safety pins to fasten splints or bandages, tweezers, scissors and hand sanitizer.
Have medicines for cuts and injuries, such as antiseptic solution like hydrogen peroxide, antibiotic ointment, calamine lotion for stings or poison ivy, hydrocortisone cream for itching and an eyewash solution.
Include contact lens solution if necessary.
Other medicines to have include pain and fever medicines like aspirin, acetaminophen or ibuprofen, antihistamines for allergies, decongestants for colds, anti-nausea medicine, anti-diarrhea medicine, antacids and laxatives.

Method 3 Preserving Food.
1. Preserve meat and fish. In an economic collapse, food stores could become dangerously low. If you are going to stock up on meat and fish ahead of time, you will need to know how to cure it. This will allow it stay fresh and edible much longer. Also, it can be stored at room temperature. This will be helpful in the event of a power outage.
2. Salt cure meat. Salt curing means using salt to kill the microbes that would spoil it. For every 100 pounds of meat, you need 8 pounds of salt, 2 ounces of saltpeter and 3 pounds of sugar. Apply the cure mixture directly to the meat. For bacon, allow the meat to cure for 7 days per inch of thickness. For ham, leave the mixture on for a day and a half per pound. After curing, rub off the salt under running water and allow it to dry.
If the outdoor temperature is expected to rise above 40 degrees Fahrenheit, you will need to allow the meat to cure in a meat locker.
If the outdoor temperature is below freezing, allow an extra day for curing.
3. Smoke cure meat. Wood smoking meat not only adds flavor, but it also protects your meat from pests and spoilage. Cold smoking smokes the meat without cooking it. Hang the meat in a smoke house, light the fire and allow the meat to smoke for 10 to 20 hours. You can purchase a ready-made smoke house or plans to build your own.
Use aromatic woods to add flavor, such as hickory, mesquite, apple, cherry, pear or cranberry-apple.
Woods to avoid include all conifers, crape myrtle, hackberry, sycamore and holly.
4. Jerky meat. To make meat jerky, you can use a store-bought dehydrator. However, if you do not have one of those, you can do it in your oven by cooking it at a low temperature for several hours. Choose an inexpensive cut of meat, such as brisket. Trim the fat and slice thin strips against the grain. Season the meat with salt and pepper, and if desired, marinate it overnight with diluted barbecue sauce. Arrange the slices on a cooking grate, and put them in the oven at 170 degrees Fahrenheit for two to six hours.
Line your oven with foil for easy cleanup, Prop the oven door open with a wooden spoon to allow air to circulate.
Partially freeze meat before slicing to make it easier to slice.
5. Can fruits and vegetables. Canning involves heating food in a glass jar to remove the air and prevent spoilage. Choose from two methods to can food: water bath and pressure canning. The method you choose depends on the kind of food you want to can. Water bath canning is for jams, jellies and for acidic foods such as tomatoes, berries or cucumbers in vinegar. For main meal foods such as meat, beans and other vegetables, use pressure canning. To ensure safety, always use tried and true recipes.
6. Can with the water bath method. Gather a deep pot with a lid, a rack that fits into the pot, glass preserving jars, lids and bands and a jar lifter. Check the jars and lids for nicks and scratches which would prevent proper canning and allow spoilage to occur. Heat the jars in a pot of boiling water or in the dishwasher. Prepare your recipe and fill the hot jars with the food. Place the lids on the jars and immerse them in boiling water. Make sure the water covers the jars by 1 to 2 inches. Leave them in the water for the amount of time stated in the recipe. Remove the jars with a jar lifter and allow them to sit for 12 to 24 hours.
The lids should not flex up and down when pressed. If they do flex or if you can easily remove the lid, then the jar did not seal properly.
7. Can with pressure canning. You will need a store-bought pressure canner. As with water bath canning, check the jars for nicks and scratches, and heat them in boiling water or the dishwasher. Prepare the food according to your recipe and fill hot jars with the food. Place the jars in the canner and lock it in place. Vent the steam according to the manufacturer’s directions. Process the jars at the recommended pounds pressure stated in your recipe. Adjust for altitude. When done, remove the jars, allow them to sit for 12 to 24 hours and check the seals.

Method 4 Securing Your Home.
1. Choose your shelter type. A standalone shelter is a separate building that is designed to withstand natural disasters or man-made weapons or attacks. An internal shelter is a room within your home that has been designed to protect you from the elements or other hazards. In an economic collapse, power systems may fail and looters and scavengers may threaten your home. Take precautions to protect yourself.
2. Create two sources of electricity. One source could be solar. Hook it up to your home and then run the system discretely underground. The second source might be an underground generator. You will use this in the event of a total loss of power. Keep your energy sources hidden underground to protect them.
3. Choose the size of your shelter. The size of your shelter depends on how many people you need to protect and the size of your food stockpile. An adult needs 10 cups of water and 1,200 calories per day. In addition, each adult needs 10 cubic feet of natural atmosphere to have enough air to breathe, so you will need an air system that lets in and filters fresh air. If you are planning to stay in the shelter long-term, invest now in making it large and comfortable enough for everyone. If it is only going to be a short-term living space, you don’t have to make it as comfortable.
4. Keep the location of your shelter secret. Protect yourself from others who were not prepared and may want to take what you have. Don’t let your neighbors see you creating a shelter. You can choose a remote location, but it may be difficult to access it later. If you choose to make a safe room in your home, create a secret entrance from within your house. This way others will not be alerted to your shelter.
5. Purchase self-defense tools. Self-defense tools are generally non-lethal. They are used to fend off an attack by rendering the attacker ineffective. You can use everyday objects, such as baseball bats or keys. But these may not be as effective as tools designed for your protection.
Mace and pepper spray can be sprayed into an attacker’s face to give you time to get away.
Hand-held stun guns deliver a large electrical shock to stun the attacker.
Taser devices shoot two small probes a distance of up to 15 feet that transmit an electrical charge to the attacker.
Sonic alarms create a loud noise to let others know that you are in trouble.
6. Set up an alarm system in your home. Wireless security systems are easy and inexpensive to install and maintain. Home alert alarm systems notify you if an intruder is approaching your home. Hidden cameras allow you to see internal and exterior areas in your home where an intruder may be present. Phone dialing alarms can be installed inside or outside your home and allow you to contact authorities with the push of a button. Child monitoring alarms notify you if your child goes beyond a certain perimeter of your home.
7. Purchase weapons. Weapons can be used for either self-defense or for hunting. A crossbow is easy to shoot and aim. It’s also quiet, so it doesn’t alert people or animals to your presence. A long-range rifle allows you to hunt game from a distance. A machete can clear brush or fend off a dangerous animal. A slingshot is good for hunting small animals. Have pistols on hand and teach others to shoot, reload, shoot from cover and work as a team for protection. If you plan to have lethal weapons, be sure to train everyone who has access to them in the proper use of these weapons.
Stockpile appropriate ammunition and arrows for your weapons.
8. Gather necessary tools. Having the right tools on hand can make the difference between surviving and not surviving during any kind of disaster. You not only want to be able to protect your home, but you also need to be able to build anything you might need.
Have a bolt-cutter on hand to cut through fences and wire.
Picks, shovels, axes, chain saws and bow saws allow you dig and gather and cut wood.
Rope and paracords are essential for assembling simple and complex survival systems.
Tarps are necessary as ground covers or for weather-proofing, Stock pile nails and plywood for building and repairs.
Keep large trash bags for waste disposal, Have gasoline for fuel or a fire starter, Get a propane stove for cooking, Have a fishing rod for catching fish.

Method 5 Preparing Your Family.
1. Make sure everyone is aware of the situation. In order to prepare for economic collapse, you will have to make sure that your whole family is on board with your preparations. This means informing them in honest terms what is about to happen and telling them what they should be doing. Make sure everyone takes the situation seriously. Otherwise, they will not be mentally prepared in the event that economic collapse actually occurs.
2. Check that each family member is individually prepared. Inform each other family member of the steps you have taken to prepare your finances, essential supplies, food, and shelter. Instruct them on doing the same. Make sure each family member has also packed a bag of essentials that they can grab if they are forced to leave the house without notice. This bag should contain enough survival essentials to last between 72 hours and a week.
3. Train family members in survival skills. Your immediate family members should be aware of how to handle weapons safely, perform basic first aid, hunt or grow food, and maintain your shelter. If they don't already have these skills, take the time to instruct them thoroughly. You never know when you might have to depend on them.
4. Work with another family or group. In addition to your immediate family, consider including other family members, neighbors, or a community group (like a church group) in your preparations. Make sure that these are people who are reliable and will put in work for the benefit of the group. You will be safer and work more efficiently if you can increase the size of your group.

Method 6 Anticipating a Financial Crisis.
1. Monitor the financial markets. Calm markets tend to go up. But if the market gets choppy, meaning prices swing up and down considerably, it will likely decline. Don’t be fooled if he market soars for one day. Big ups and downs in the markets are a red flag signaling an overall decline.
2. Keep an eye on global 10 year bond yields. Global bonds are bonds that are issued in several countries at once by governments or large multi-national companies. When 10 year global bond yields drop, it is in indicator that investors are withdrawing their money to put it in safer investments. This happened before the financial crisis that happened in 2008. A significant drop in 10 year global bond yields means that investors think a financial crisis is coming.
3. Pay attention to oil prices. The fluctuation of oil prices has a macroeconomic impact. When oil prices increase, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) goes up too. The GDP is a quantitative measure of the nation’s total activity. If it is increasing, then the value of goods and services is also going up. If periods of high oil prices signal good times for the world economy, then the opposite is also true. If oil prices are on the decline, expect the GDP and the financial markets to also decline.
4. Understand the relationship between inflation and economic growth. Economic growth tends to lead to inflation. As demand increases, prices are driven up and unemployment falls. As unemployment falls, wages increase. As wages increase, people spend more, which leads to inflation of prices. Conversely, when economic activity slows down, so does inflation. Therefore, if the price of goods and services slows dramatically, it could signal a major downturn in the economy.
5. Monitor the price of commercial commodities. Commercial commodities are goods exchanged during commerce, such as gold, lumber, beef or natural gas. Changes in the prices of commodities affect the United States economy and the value of the U.S. dollar. An increase in commodity prices is correlated with an increase in inflation. Increased inflation correlates with economic growth. However, if commodity prices drop, inflation slows, which indicates economic decline.

Community Q&A.

Question : Where can I join a survival group to prepare for the potential economic collapse?
Answer : Facebook groups are the best place to start. Search for survival groups.
Question : Why would I pay off my debt first? If the economy collapses, my creditors' well being will take a backseat to my family's well being.
Answer : If you owe money to creditors, you would be putting your family at risk during such a time if you failed to keep paying back debts. Creditors are enabled by law to come and claim some of your assets if you have stopped paying them in order to protect your family's well being. In a time like this, assets are everything.
Question : Is an investment in gold and/or silver appropriate? If so, what are your recommendations, and why?
Answer : While gold used to be the standard for currency, it is still very valuable during recessions. Purchasing gold or silver can be a great way to diversify your investments.
Question : If I have a high car payment, and my IRA is large enough to pay off the vehicle, should I close the IRA and pay off the car?
Answer : Sell your expensive car and purchase an older, reliable vehicle with cash. One should never finance an item that depreciates in value, and keep your IRA.
Question : When is the economic collapse expected? In 2018 when bond yields drop?
Answer : No one really knows, but we can predict certain fluctuations (presidential elections or new terms, corporations moving out of the country, major world events, etc.) It's just best to be prepared for it with at minimum a month's supply of essentials.
Question : Should I get out of all stocks if preparing for economic collapse? Should I pay off my mortgage if I have the stock to do so?
Answer : No. Hedge your bets by keeping your portfolio 60% in stock index funds and 40% in bond index funds. I recommend Vanguard because of the low fees. Also, do not pay off your mortgage. You need cash flow. In a collapse, you will have the moral authority to defend your home with violence if necessary.
Question : With a low fixed rate mortgage, should I have my house paid off when the U.S. dollar crashes?
Answer : If you can, hold onto the cash needed to pay off your mortgage. When the dollar crashes, it won't be worth much for buying anything, but the bank still has to take it for your mortgage.
Question : What is the best way to reduce my losses on a savings account if the currency is devalued?
Answer : The best way is to not have a savings account at all. You have more liquidity keeping your money in your checking account. So take that money out of your savings account and open up another checking account with a debit card. Do not use it.
June 02, 2020


How to Finance a Franchise.

A franchise is a business for which a person is licensed by a large company to operate under its name. As a franchise licensee, you operate a business and, in some cases, a brick-and-mortar location. Even without a physical storefront, starting a franchise requires a fair amount of money. There are several ways to finance a franchise. In addition to using your savings and leveraging your existing assets, there are loans and grants available from many sources. You may need to utilize more than one of the following methods to raise enough capital to start your business.

Part 1 Arranging Financing with the Franchisor.

1. Find out what financing your franchisor offers. The place most franchise licensees will start looking for financing is with the franchisor company itself. Many offer loans through their own finance companies or third party financiers they have business relationships with. This will often cover a significant portion of your startup costs.

Franchisors may also have agreements already set up with companies that can lease you some of the equipment you need to get the franchise up and running.

Each franchise has it's own package in terms of what it will offer new franchise licensees. Check into what your company offers.

This information may be available online or in other documents provided with your franchise application, or you may need to request it.

2. Look into down-payment and collateral requirements. Franchisors will require you to demonstrate that you have some collateral that will allow them to recoup their money, should your franchise fail. Many also require that you put up a down-payment of money that you have NOT borrowed from other sources.

McDonalds, for example, typically requires new franchise licensees to pay 25% of the costs of a franchise out of pocket, in cash. This ensures that franchises only go to people who have the necessary resources to make payments.

3. Apply for financing. Complete the necessary forms to apply for financing from the franchisor. Again, these will vary based on the company. Information about how to apply for financing may be included in the Franchise Disclosure Statement, or you may need to request it from the company.

The Franchise Disclosure Statement is a document you will receive from the company if your franchise application is approved. It spells out in minute detail the specifics of the franchise agreement. It is mandated by the Federal Trade Commission that all franchisors provide this document to licensees.

Like any other loan application, you will be expected to provide information about your assets, financial history, and net worth.

Part 2 Securing Outside Financing.

1. Apply for a bank loan. Another option consider for financing your new franchise is a standard small business loan from a bank. Especially if you have a good credit rating and are opening a franchise with a positive reputation, banks may be willing to offer you some starting capital.

Typically bank loans of this sort will require you to put up some kind of collateral, such as your home or any stocks or bonds you might own. They will also often want you to pay for as much as 20% of the cost of starting the franchise from your own money, to be certain you are capable of covering major business costs.

These loans usually require you to have already established a relationship with a banker.

2. Apply for an SBA loan. If your bank won't provide you with a loan, you may be able to secure a loan through the US Small Business Administration. These loans are disbursed by banks and credit unions, but are guaranteed against default by the federal government.

SBA loan 7(a) is available to franchise licensees opening any business on the SBA's franchise registry.

You can borrow between a couple hundred thousand and a few million dollars through the SBA. These loans typically have a five-year maturity period, so they work well for startup costs, but not longer-term expenses.

The International Franchise Association provides a directory on their website of vendors that administer SBA loans. The process of applying for an SBA loan, however, is a highly complicated one. Thus, it is usually recommended that applicants secure assistance from an accountant. If you don't have an accountant, your franchisor may be able to suggest someone.

3. Apply for a finance company loan. A recent development in the world of franchise financing is the online loan portal. These are websites that match franchise licensees with private creditors.

Two of the biggest online loan portals are Boefly and Franchise America Finance.

Some franchisors have have relationships with these companies. Ask your franchisor if they subscribe to any of these website.

4. Find investors or business partners. Another option for financing is look for a business partner to share the cost (and profits) of your new franchise. Many franchise licensees also turn to friends or family to borrow money or ask them to invest in the business.

Several small loans from friends or family members, to whom you promise to pay some mutually agreeable interest rate or equity in the business, can go far to cover the costs of starting a new franchise.

Equity means that your investors will be entitled to a share of the profits from the business and have a certain measure of control over its operations (depending on your agreement with them).

However, equity does not have to be repaid (unlike a loan).

You can also advertise in the local press seeking an investor or business partner. However, advertising for investors can be tricky, due to securities laws regulating the solicitation of public investors. Hire a financial lawyer to make sure you are staying on the right side of the law.

Be sure to draw up a formal agreement about the terms of the investment (i.e. how much they are investing, what interest rate you will pay, and over what period you will pay back the loan). This is especially important if you have investors who you don't know well.

Obtaining investment in this way will require accepting investments under the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) Regulation D and the creation of official offering documents that detail the investment in a specific format.

If you are using Regulation D, be sure to hire a financial attorney to guide you through the process. Otherwise, you open yourself up to financial and criminal penalties resulting from violations of SEC regulations.

Part 3 Using Your Own Assets.

1. Use savings and other assets. Most franchise licensees end up covering at least a portion of the startup costs from their own resources. An obvious place to start is with your own cash savings.

Don't go overboard on this. A good rule of thumb is not to invest more than 75 percent of your cash reserves. That way, if an unexpected expense comes up, you have some money to cover it.

2. Borrow against your home. Many people starting a new business will borrow money based on the value of their home to get the business started. Money borrowed on the value of your home is tax-free. There are two ways to do this.

You can get a line of credit based on the value of your home. This is known as a home equity line of credit (HELOC) and is best for when you are unsure of how much money you will need, as the line of credit structure allows you to borrow as needed.

You can take out a second mortgage on the house. This will provide you with a set amount of money that must be repaid as a regular mortgage would.

Be warned that with either of these options, if you find yourself unable to make payments on the money borrowed, you could lose your home.

3. Use your retirement fund. Another common approach to self-financing is to use funds in your retirement account.[16] IRAs and 401(k) plans can be withdrawn from to finance all or part of a franchise business. However, there may be significant fees and taxes involved, depending on the plan type.

If you withdraw these funds as cash, you'll lose a significant chunk in taxes. There may be ways to avoid doing so, but you should seek professional legal and tax help when attempting them due to the complexity and possible negative consequences.

Taking funds out a traditional IRA or 401(k) before the age of 59.5 will result in a 10 percent penalty being assess on the withdrawal. This is in addition to the income taxes assessed on the withdrawal.

So, if you withdraw $100,000 and you are in the 25 percent marginal tax bracket, you would pay a total of 35 percent ($35,000) on your withdrawal, leaving you with only $65,000 for your business.

Withdrawals from a Roth IRA, however, are tax and penalty-free, provided they consist of contributions that have been in the account longer than five years.

Be warned, however, that if your new business fails, your retirement funds will be wiped out.

Part 4 Refinancing Your Franchise.

1.Decide when to refinance. Refinancing is taking on a new loan which pays off any old loans you already have. Most commonly, this is done to reduce interest payments, but could also be an opportunity to borrow additional funds and consolidate that loan with existing ones. You should consider refinancing if.

You can get a loan at a better interest rate.

You want to consolidate multiple loans into a single payment.

You want to change from and adjustable to fixed rate of interest, or vice versa.

You need more capital to update equipment, make improvements, or open an additional location.

2. Look into refinancing options. It is a good idea to frequently look for loans that will offer more favorable terms than the one(s) you already have. This can significantly reduce your interest payments and free up capital for other uses.

Once you've been in business for a while, you may become a more attractive customer to banks and other financiers. This is because over time, you demonstrate your ability to successfully run your franchise. This makes you a less risky investment. That, in turn, can lead to offers with better rates.

Check with your bank, and re-examine the option of an SBA loan, as this is often the least costly option for people who can get one.

3. Weigh the fees against the savings. Refinancing isn't free. There are usually fees, such as closing costs, involved in refinancing any loan.

There may be other penalties as well, based on the details of your old loan.

The question to ask is whether the savings outweigh the fees, time, and effort that go into refinancing. You may find that you can refinance and save a thousand dollars over the life of the loan. You'll need to decide if that's worth the time and effort. Your answer might be very different if you could save ten thousand dollars.

4. Update your business plan. Before applying for a new loan, update your business plan to reflect the current state of your business and your goals for the future. Your new business plan should include.

Strengths and weaknesses of your business.

Major milestones or accomplishments.

Expertise you have developed in running the franchise.

Goals for the next two to five years.

Two years of tax returns.

The payment schedule of your current loan.

5. Apply for a new a loan and pay off the old one. Fill out an application for the new loan. When you receive the funds, pay off the old loan.

Typically, the bank will handle the payoff for you. They will pay off your old loan, and billing will come from the new loan company from then on.

You may be able to refinance with a lender you already have loans from. This can save time and effort and sometimes mean less fees.

Tips.

Be sure to have any investment agreements reviewed by a legal professional prior to accepting money from investors, especially if they are people you don't know well.

Warnings.

It is not advisable to invest money set aside for specific important purposes (such as your children's college fund) in your franchise. As confident as you may be in its success, businesses fail every day. If that happens, there will be no way to recover your money.

Never use money from new investors to pay previous investors. Doing so could inadvertently turn your legitimate attempt to finance a franchise into an illegal investment scheme.
December 03, 2019


How to Finance a Franchise.

A franchise is a business for which a person is licensed by a large company to operate under its name. As a franchise licensee, you operate a business and, in some cases, a brick-and-mortar location. Even without a physical storefront, starting a franchise requires a fair amount of money. There are several ways to finance a franchise. In addition to using your savings and leveraging your existing assets, there are loans and grants available from many sources. You may need to utilize more than one of the following methods to raise enough capital to start your business.

Part 1 Arranging Financing with the Franchisor.

1. Find out what financing your franchisor offers. The place most franchise licensees will start looking for financing is with the franchisor company itself. Many offer loans through their own finance companies or third party financiers they have business relationships with. This will often cover a significant portion of your startup costs.

Franchisors may also have agreements already set up with companies that can lease you some of the equipment you need to get the franchise up and running.

Each franchise has it's own package in terms of what it will offer new franchise licensees. Check into what your company offers.

This information may be available online or in other documents provided with your franchise application, or you may need to request it.

2. Look into down-payment and collateral requirements. Franchisors will require you to demonstrate that you have some collateral that will allow them to recoup their money, should your franchise fail. Many also require that you put up a down-payment of money that you have NOT borrowed from other sources.

McDonalds, for example, typically requires new franchise licensees to pay 25% of the costs of a franchise out of pocket, in cash. This ensures that franchises only go to people who have the necessary resources to make payments.

3. Apply for financing. Complete the necessary forms to apply for financing from the franchisor. Again, these will vary based on the company. Information about how to apply for financing may be included in the Franchise Disclosure Statement, or you may need to request it from the company.

The Franchise Disclosure Statement is a document you will receive from the company if your franchise application is approved. It spells out in minute detail the specifics of the franchise agreement. It is mandated by the Federal Trade Commission that all franchisors provide this document to licensees.

Like any other loan application, you will be expected to provide information about your assets, financial history, and net worth.

Part 2 Securing Outside Financing.

1. Apply for a bank loan. Another option consider for financing your new franchise is a standard small business loan from a bank. Especially if you have a good credit rating and are opening a franchise with a positive reputation, banks may be willing to offer you some starting capital.

Typically bank loans of this sort will require you to put up some kind of collateral, such as your home or any stocks or bonds you might own. They will also often want you to pay for as much as 20% of the cost of starting the franchise from your own money, to be certain you are capable of covering major business costs.

These loans usually require you to have already established a relationship with a banker.

2. Apply for an SBA loan. If your bank won't provide you with a loan, you may be able to secure a loan through the US Small Business Administration. These loans are disbursed by banks and credit unions, but are guaranteed against default by the federal government.

SBA loan 7(a) is available to franchise licensees opening any business on the SBA's franchise registry.

You can borrow between a couple hundred thousand and a few million dollars through the SBA. These loans typically have a five-year maturity period, so they work well for startup costs, but not longer-term expenses.

The International Franchise Association provides a directory on their website of vendors that administer SBA loans. The process of applying for an SBA loan, however, is a highly complicated one. Thus, it is usually recommended that applicants secure assistance from an accountant. If you don't have an accountant, your franchisor may be able to suggest someone.

3. Apply for a finance company loan. A recent development in the world of franchise financing is the online loan portal. These are websites that match franchise licensees with private creditors.

Two of the biggest online loan portals are Boefly and Franchise America Finance.

Some franchisors have have relationships with these companies. Ask your franchisor if they subscribe to any of these website.

4. Find investors or business partners. Another option for financing is look for a business partner to share the cost (and profits) of your new franchise. Many franchise licensees also turn to friends or family to borrow money or ask them to invest in the business.

Several small loans from friends or family members, to whom you promise to pay some mutually agreeable interest rate or equity in the business, can go far to cover the costs of starting a new franchise.

Equity means that your investors will be entitled to a share of the profits from the business and have a certain measure of control over its operations (depending on your agreement with them).

However, equity does not have to be repaid (unlike a loan).

You can also advertise in the local press seeking an investor or business partner. However, advertising for investors can be tricky, due to securities laws regulating the solicitation of public investors. Hire a financial lawyer to make sure you are staying on the right side of the law.

Be sure to draw up a formal agreement about the terms of the investment (i.e. how much they are investing, what interest rate you will pay, and over what period you will pay back the loan). This is especially important if you have investors who you don't know well.

Obtaining investment in this way will require accepting investments under the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) Regulation D and the creation of official offering documents that detail the investment in a specific format.

If you are using Regulation D, be sure to hire a financial attorney to guide you through the process. Otherwise, you open yourself up to financial and criminal penalties resulting from violations of SEC regulations.

Part 3 Using Your Own Assets.

1. Use savings and other assets. Most franchise licensees end up covering at least a portion of the startup costs from their own resources. An obvious place to start is with your own cash savings.

Don't go overboard on this. A good rule of thumb is not to invest more than 75 percent of your cash reserves. That way, if an unexpected expense comes up, you have some money to cover it.

2. Borrow against your home. Many people starting a new business will borrow money based on the value of their home to get the business started. Money borrowed on the value of your home is tax-free. There are two ways to do this.

You can get a line of credit based on the value of your home. This is known as a home equity line of credit (HELOC) and is best for when you are unsure of how much money you will need, as the line of credit structure allows you to borrow as needed.

You can take out a second mortgage on the house. This will provide you with a set amount of money that must be repaid as a regular mortgage would.

Be warned that with either of these options, if you find yourself unable to make payments on the money borrowed, you could lose your home.

3. Use your retirement fund. Another common approach to self-financing is to use funds in your retirement account.[16] IRAs and 401(k) plans can be withdrawn from to finance all or part of a franchise business. However, there may be significant fees and taxes involved, depending on the plan type.

If you withdraw these funds as cash, you'll lose a significant chunk in taxes. There may be ways to avoid doing so, but you should seek professional legal and tax help when attempting them due to the complexity and possible negative consequences.

Taking funds out a traditional IRA or 401(k) before the age of 59.5 will result in a 10 percent penalty being assess on the withdrawal. This is in addition to the income taxes assessed on the withdrawal.

So, if you withdraw $100,000 and you are in the 25 percent marginal tax bracket, you would pay a total of 35 percent ($35,000) on your withdrawal, leaving you with only $65,000 for your business.

Withdrawals from a Roth IRA, however, are tax and penalty-free, provided they consist of contributions that have been in the account longer than five years.

Be warned, however, that if your new business fails, your retirement funds will be wiped out.

Part 4 Refinancing Your Franchise.

1.Decide when to refinance. Refinancing is taking on a new loan which pays off any old loans you already have. Most commonly, this is done to reduce interest payments, but could also be an opportunity to borrow additional funds and consolidate that loan with existing ones. You should consider refinancing if.

You can get a loan at a better interest rate.

You want to consolidate multiple loans into a single payment.

You want to change from and adjustable to fixed rate of interest, or vice versa.

You need more capital to update equipment, make improvements, or open an additional location.

2. Look into refinancing options. It is a good idea to frequently look for loans that will offer more favorable terms than the one(s) you already have. This can significantly reduce your interest payments and free up capital for other uses.

Once you've been in business for a while, you may become a more attractive customer to banks and other financiers. This is because over time, you demonstrate your ability to successfully run your franchise. This makes you a less risky investment. That, in turn, can lead to offers with better rates.

Check with your bank, and re-examine the option of an SBA loan, as this is often the least costly option for people who can get one.

3. Weigh the fees against the savings. Refinancing isn't free. There are usually fees, such as closing costs, involved in refinancing any loan.

There may be other penalties as well, based on the details of your old loan.

The question to ask is whether the savings outweigh the fees, time, and effort that go into refinancing. You may find that you can refinance and save a thousand dollars over the life of the loan. You'll need to decide if that's worth the time and effort. Your answer might be very different if you could save ten thousand dollars.

4. Update your business plan. Before applying for a new loan, update your business plan to reflect the current state of your business and your goals for the future. Your new business plan should include.

Strengths and weaknesses of your business.

Major milestones or accomplishments.

Expertise you have developed in running the franchise.

Goals for the next two to five years.

Two years of tax returns.

The payment schedule of your current loan.

5. Apply for a new a loan and pay off the old one. Fill out an application for the new loan. When you receive the funds, pay off the old loan.

Typically, the bank will handle the payoff for you. They will pay off your old loan, and billing will come from the new loan company from then on.

You may be able to refinance with a lender you already have loans from. This can save time and effort and sometimes mean less fees.

Tips.

Be sure to have any investment agreements reviewed by a legal professional prior to accepting money from investors, especially if they are people you don't know well.

Warnings.

It is not advisable to invest money set aside for specific important purposes (such as your children's college fund) in your franchise. As confident as you may be in its success, businesses fail every day. If that happens, there will be no way to recover your money.

Never use money from new investors to pay previous investors. Doing so could inadvertently turn your legitimate attempt to finance a franchise into an illegal investment scheme.
December 02, 2019