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Ray Dalio gives 3 financial recommendations for millennials

By Jacob Wolinsky.
Founder, Chairman and Co-Chief Investment Officer of Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio talks to Julia La Roche in 2018 of Yahoo Finance about the value of savings and investing.

These are Ray Dalio Gives 3 Financial Recommendations For Millennials.
Well I want to talk about my generation the millennials. We were really coming of age during the crisis. So how would you advise us to prepare. And what I mean is what would you tell our generation. We feel scarred from the crisis. First of all I think. One of the problems is that the experience that you had is the last experience is the one that's going to stick in your mind.

And probably will not be the one that's going to get you so that the next experience will be very very different. I know my my parents went through the Great Depression and then they missed out on the boom because they're always thinking about that. And so I think I think that what they need to do is see all of those crisis's. That's why you can see inflationary ones and see all of those and once you get that perspective I would say three things to your generation. OK. Three recommendations. The first recommendation. Is to is to think about your savings and how much money do you have for savings and the best way to think about that is to think how much money do I spend each month. And how much money do I have saved so that I can. How many months are my going to be OK without that and to savings. Right. And calculate it because savings in that is freedom and security. And think about what that is. So that's that's the first one. How much do I have for that.

The second thing is how do I save. Well what should I put my savings in. And when thinking about what you should put your savings in. Realize that the least risky investment that you think from volatility is the least risk investment. It which is cash is the worst investment over a period of time. And you could judge that by judging the rate of inflation in relationship to the after tax income you're going to earn. So if you have an inflation rate that's two or three percent and you're earning 1 percent and you have to pay taxes on that one percent or the 1 or 2 percent that you're going to get. You're going to get taxed essentially at two percent a year. And that's going to be a problem. So you have to move into assets that are other assets that are going to do better over a period of time. And when you do that the most important thing I can convey to you is to diversify well because I can guarantee you that one of those assets and you won't be able to pick the right one will be disastrous in your lifetime that you will lose half of that savings if you're in the wrong one and you won't know what the right one is. And so pick different countries pick different asset classes and I could probably take too long explaining how you might do that. But but. So that would be the second thing to learn from. First thing is think about how to save be cautious about debt when you're thinking about debt. Think about is that debt going to help my savings or is it going to produce an income.

Sometimes debt like buying a house or buying an apartment or buying an asset, it produces forced savings. Forced savings is a good thing. Or if you're taking on debt and you're thinking am I going to have that debt in an asset that asset debt or produce more income than the asset than the cost of your debt. If you're using debt for consumption that's not a good thing to do. OK you're giving up that that safety. So I want. So number one is think about how much you save and think about whether that should be how you borrow. Number two make sure that you think about the diversification of that not in cash. And number three. Do the opposite of what your instincts are. If you're going to play the game. It has to be the opposite of what your instincts in the crowd says because the market reflects the crowd. So you want to buy when no one wants to buy and you want to sell when no one wants to sell. Right. So and that's emotionally difficult and probably not going to play that game well because it takes a lot of resources to play with it. We spend hundreds of millions of dollars each year to try to play that game. Well and it's a tough game to play well. So I would caution you about the market timing game but I would say that if you're going to do it do it in the ways that are uncomfortable because they're opposite your instincts.

That's really good advice right. One more thing that really resonates with me in the book was if in the next downturn the implications could be the impact on pension obligations health care. Is my generation are going to be on the hook for that. Yeah. So we pay a lot of attention to debt. And we should. But pension obligations and healthcare obligations are just like debt.

August 11, 2020

Charlie Munger on Getting Rich, Wisdom, Focus, Fake Knowledge and More.

“In the chronicles of American financial history,” writes David Clark in The Tao of Charlie Munger: A Compilation of Quotes from Berkshire Hathaway’s Vice Chairman on Life, Business, and the Pursuit of Wealth, “Charlie Munger will be seen as the proverbial enigma wrapped in a paradox—he is both a mystery and a contradiction at the same time.”

On one hand, Munger received an elite education and it shows: He went to Cal Tech to train as a meteorologist for the Second World War and then attended Harvard Law School and eventually opened his own law firm. That part of his success makes sense.
Yet here’s a man who never took a single course in economics, business, marketing, finance, psychology, or accounting, and managed to become one of the greatest, most admired, and most honorable businessmen of our age. He was noted by essentially all observers for the originality of his thoughts, especially about business and human behavior. You don’t learn that in law school, at Harvard or anywhere else.
Bill Gates said of him: “He is truly the broadest thinker I have ever encountered.” His business partner Warren Buffett put it another way: “He comes equipped for rationality… I would say that to try and typecast Charlie in terms of any other human that I can think of, no one would fit. He’s got his own mold.”
How does such an extreme result happen? How is such an original and unduly capable mind formed? In the case of Munger, it’s clearly a combination of unusual genetics and an unusual approach to learning and life.
While we can’t have his genetics, we can try to steal his approach to rationality. There’s almost no limit to the amount one could learn from studying the Munger mind, so let’s at least start with a rundown of some of his best ideas.


Wisdom and Circles of Competence.
“Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.”
“Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom.”
Identify your circle of competence and use your knowledge, when possible, to stay away from things you don’t understand. There are no points for difficulty at work or in life.  Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.
Of course this principle relates to another of Munger’s sayings: “People are trying to be smart—all I am trying to do is not to be idiotic, but it’s harder than most people think.”
And this reminds me of perhaps my favorite Mungerism of all time, the very quote that sits right beside my desk:
“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”

Divergence.
“Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean.”
Here’s a simple axiom to live by: If you do what everyone else does, you’re going to get the same results that everyone else gets. This means that, taking out luck (good or bad), if you act average, you’re going to be average. If you want to move away from average, you must diverge. You must be different. And if you want to outperform others, you must be different and correct. As Munger would say, “How could it be otherwise?”

Know When to Fold ’Em.
“Life, in part, is like a poker game, wherein you have to learn to quit sometimes when holding a much-loved hand—you must learn to handle mistakes and new facts that change the odds.”
Mistakes are an opportunity to grow. How we handle adversity is up to us. This is how we become personally antifragile.

False Models.
Echoing Einstein, who said that “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts,” Munger said this about his and Buffett’s shift to acquiring high-quality businesses for Berkshire Hathaway:
“Once we’d gotten over the hurdle of recognizing that a thing could be a bargain based on quantitative measures that would have horrified Graham, we started thinking about better businesses.”

Being Lazy.
“Sit on your ass. You’re paying less to brokers, you’re listening to less nonsense, and if it works, the tax system gives you an extra one, two, or three percentage points per annum.”
Time is a friend to a good business and the enemy of the poor business. It’s also the friend of knowledge and the enemy of the new and novel. As Seneca said, “Time discovers truth.”

Investing Is a Perimutuel System.
“You’re looking for a mispriced gamble,” says Munger. “That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.”  At another time, he added: “You should remember that good ideas are rare— when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.”
May the odds forever be in your favor. Actually, learning properly is one way you can tilt the odds in your favor.

Focus.
When asked about his success, Munger says, “I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”
Long attention spans allow for a deep understanding of subjects. When combined with deliberate practice, focus allows you to increase your skills and get out of your rut. The Art of Focus is a divergent and correct strategy that can help you identify where the leverage points are and apply your efforts toward them.

Fake Knowledge.
“Smart people aren’t exempt from professional disasters from overconfidence.”
We’re so used to outsourcing our thinking to others that we’ve forgotten what it’s like to really understand something from all perspectives. We’ve forgotten just how much work that takes. The path of least resistance, however, is just a click away. Fake knowledge, which comes from reading headlines and skimming the news, seems harmless, but it’s not. It makes us overconfident. It’s better to remember a simple trick: anything you’re getting easily through Google or Twitter is likely to be widely known and should not be given undue weight.
However, Munger adds, “If people weren’t wrong so often, we wouldn’t be so rich.”

Sit Quietly.
Echoing Pascal, who said some version of “All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone,” Munger adds an investing twist: “It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait.”
The ability to be alone with your thoughts and turn ideas over and over, without giving in to Do Something syndrome, affects so many of us. A perfectly reasonable option is to hold your ground and await more information.

Deal With Reality.
“I think that one should recognize reality even when one doesn’t like it; indeed, especially when one doesn’t like it.”
Munger clearly learned from Joseph Tussman’s wisdom. This means facing harsh truths that you might prefer to ignore. It means meeting the world on the world’s terms, not according to how you wish it would be. If this causes temporary pain, so be it. “Your pain,” writes Kahil Gibran in The Prophet, “is the breaking of the shell that encloses your understanding.”

There Is No Free Lunch.
We like quick solutions that don’t require a lot of effort. We’re drawn to the modern equivalent of an old hustler selling an all-curing tonic. However, the world does not work that way. Munger expands:
“There isn’t a single formula. You need to know a lot about business and human nature and the numbers… It is unreasonable to expect that there is a magic system that will do it for you.”
Acquiring knowledge is hard work. It’s reading and adding to your knowledge so it compounds. It’s going deep and developing fluency, something Darwin knew well.

Maximization/Minimization.
“In business we often find that the winning system goes almost ridiculously far in maximizing and or minimizing one or a few variables—like the discount warehouses of Costco.”
When everything is a priority, nothing is a priority. Attempting to maximize competing variables is a recipe for disaster. Picking one variable and relentlessly focusing on it, which is an effective strategy, diverges from the norm. It’s hard to compete with businesses that have correctly identified the right variables to maximize or minimize. When you focus on one variable, you’ll increase the odds that you’re quick and nimble — and can respond to changes in the terrain.

Map and Terrain.
“At Berkshire there has never been a master plan. Anyone who wanted to do it, we fired because it takes on a life of its own and doesn’t cover new reality. We want people taking into account new information.”
Plans are maps that we become attached to. Once we’ve told everyone there is a plan and what that plan is, especially multi-year plans, we’re psychologically more likely to stick to it because coming out and changing it would be admitting we were wrong. This makes it harder for us to change our strategies when we need to, so we’re stacking the odds against ourselves. Detailed five-year plans (that will clearly be wrong) are as disastrous as overly general five-year plans (which can never be wrong).
Scrap the plan, isolate the key variables that you need to maximize and minimize, and follow the agile path blazed by Henry Singleton and followed by Buffett and Munger.

The Keys to Good Government.
There are three keys: honesty, effectiveness, and efficiency. Munger says:
“In a democracy, everyone takes turns. But if you really want a lot of wisdom, it’s better to concentrate decisions and process in one person. It’s no accident that Singapore has a much better record, given where it started, than the United States. There, power was concentrated in an enormously talented person, Lee Kuan Yew, who was the Warren Buffett of Singapore.”
Lee Kuan Yew put it this way: “With few exceptions, democracy has not brought good government to new developing countries. … What Asians value may not necessarily be what Americans or Europeans value. Westerners value the freedoms and liberties of the individual. As an Asian of Chinese cultural background, my values are for a government which is honest, effective, and efficient.”

One Step At a Time.
“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day—if you live long enough—most people get what they deserve.”
An incremental approach to life reminds one of the nature of compounding. There will always be someone going faster than you, but you can learn from the Darwinian guide to overachieving your natural IQ. In order for this approach to be effective, you need a long axis of time as well as continuous incremental progress.

Getting Rich.
“The desire to get rich fast is pretty dangerous.”
Getting rich is a function of being happy with what you have, spending less than you make, and time.

Mental Models.
“Know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely—all of them, not just a few.”
Mental models are the big ideas from multiple disciplines. While most people agree that these are worth knowing, they often think they can identify which models will add the most value, and in so doing they miss something important. There is a reason that the “know-nothing” index fund almost always beats the investors who think they know. Understanding this idea in greater detail will change a lot of things, including how you read. Acquiring the big ideas — without selectivity — is the way to mimic a know-nothing index fund.

Know-it-alls.
“I try to get rid of people who always confidently answer questions about which they don’t have any real knowledge.”
Few things have made as much of a difference in my life as systemically removing (and when that’s not possible, reducing the importance of) people who think they know the answer to everything.

Stoic Resolve.
“There’s no way that you can live an adequate life without many mistakes. In fact, one trick in life is to get so you can handle mistakes. Failure to handle psychological denial is a common way for people to go broke.”
While we all make mistakes, it’s how we respond to failure that defines us.


Thinking.
“We all are learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. You must force yourself to consider arguments on the other side.”
“It’s bad to have an opinion you’re proud of if you can’t state the arguments for the other side better than your opponents. This is a great mental discipline.”
Thinking is a lot of work. “My first thought,” William Deresiewicz said in one of my favorite speeches, “is never my best thought. My first thought is always someone else’s; it’s always what I’ve already heard about the subject, always the conventional wisdom.”

Choose Your Associates Wisely.
“Oh, it’s just so useful dealing with people you can trust and getting all the others the hell out of your life. It ought to be taught as a catechism. … [W]ise people want to avoid other people who are just total rat poison, and there are a lot of them.”

August 07, 2020


Warren Buffett shares advice on becoming successful.

Billionaire Warren Buffett just turned 89—here are 6 pieces of wisdom from the investing legend.
Berkshire Hathaway CEO and self-made billionaire Warren Buffett turned 89 on Friday, August 30. He’s also celebrating his 13th wedding anniversary with his wife, Astrid.

In honor of the Oracle of Omaha’s big day, CNBC Make It rounded up seven of his best pieces of life advice.

Marry the right person.
Buffett made his fortune through smart investing, but if you ask him about the most important decision he ever made, it would have nothing to do with money. The biggest decision of your life, Buffett says, is who you choose to marry.
“You want to associate with people who are the kind of person you’d like to be. You’ll move in that direction,” he said during a 2017 conversation with Bill Gates. “And the most important person by far in that respect is your spouse. I can’t overemphasize how important that is.”
It’s advice he’s been giving for years. As he said at the 2009 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting: “Marry the right person. I’m serious about that. It will make more difference in your life. It will change your aspirations, all kinds of things.”

Invest in yourself.
“By far the best investment you can make is in yourself,” Buffett told Yahoo Finance editor-in-chief Andy Serwer earlier this year.
First, “learn to communicate better both in writing and in person.” Honing that skill can increase your value by at least 50%, he said in a Facebook video posted in 2018.
Next, take care of your body and mind — especially when you’re young. “If I gave you a car, and it’d be the only car you get the rest of your life, you would take care of it like you can’t believe. Any scratch, you’d fix that moment, you’d read the owner’s manual, you’d keep a garage and do all these things,” he said. “You get exactly one mind and one body in this world, and you can’t start taking care of it when you’re 50. By that time, you’ll rust it out if you haven’t done anything.”
By far the best investment you can make is in yourself.

Associate yourself with ‘high-grade people’
Who you associate with matters, Buffett told author Gillian Zoe Segal in an interview for her 2015 book, “Getting There: A Book of Mentors.” “One of the best things you can do in life is to surround yourself with people who are better than you are,” he said.
If you’re around what he calls “high-grade people,” you’ll start acting more like them. Conversely, “If you hang around with people who behave worse than you, pretty soon you’ll start being pulled in that direction. That’s just the way it seems to work.”

Work for people you respect.
“Try to work for whomever you admire most,” Buffett told Segal. “It won’t necessarily be the job that you’ll have 10 years later, but you’ll have the opportunity to pick up so much as you go along.”
While salary is an important factor when thinking about your career, “You don’t want to take a job just for the money,” said Buffett.
He once accepted a job with his mentor and hero, Benjamin Graham, without even asking about the salary. “I found that out at the end of the month when I got my paycheck,” he said.

Ignore the noise.
Investing can get emotional, and it doesn’t help that you can see how you’re doing throughout the day by checking a stock ticker or turning on the news.
But no one can be certain which way the financial markets are going to move. The best strategy, even when the market seems to be tanking, is to keep a level head and stay the course, Buffett says.
“I don’t pay any attention to what economists say, frankly,” he said in 2016. “If you look at the whole history of [economists], they don’t make a lot of money buying and selling stocks, but people who buy and sell stocks listen to them. I have a little trouble with that.”

Success isn’t measured by money.
Buffett is consistently one of the richest people in the world, but he doesn’t use wealth as a measure of success. For him, it all boils down to if the people you’re closest to love you.
“Being given unconditional love is the greatest benefit you can ever get,” Buffett told MBA students in a 2008 talk.
“The incredible thing about love is that you can’t get rid of it. If you try to give it away, you end up with twice as much, but if you try to hold onto it, it disappears. It is an extraordinary situation, where the people who just absolutely push it out, get it back tenfold.”

August 04, 2020

How did Warren Buffett get started in business?

By BRENT RADCLIFFE.
Warren Buffett may have been born with business in his blood. He purchased his first stock when he was 11 years old and worked in his family’s grocery store in Omaha.
His father, Howard Buffett, owned a small brokerage, and Warren would spend his days watching what investors were doing and listening to what they said. As a teenager, he took odd jobs, from washing cars to delivering newspapers, using his savings to purchase several pinball machines that he placed in local businesses.

His entrepreneurial successes as a youth did not immediately translate into a desire to attend college. His father pressed him to continue his education, with Buffett reluctantly agreeing to attend the University of Pennsylvania. He then transferred to the University of Nebraska, where he graduated with a degree in business in three years.

After being rejected by the Harvard Business School, he enrolled in graduate studies at Columbia Business School. While there, he studied under Benjamin Graham – who became a lifelong friend – and David Dodd, both well-known securities analysts. It was through Graham's class in securities analysis that Buffett learned the fundamentals of value investing. He once stated in an interview that Graham's book, The Intelligent Investor, had changed his life and set him on the path of professional analysis to the investment markets. Along with Security Analysis, co-written by Graham and Dodd it provided him the proper intellectual framework and a road map for investing.

Benjamin Graham and The Intelligent Investor.
Graham is often called the "Dean of Wall Street" and the father of value investing, as one of the most important early proponents of financial security analysis. He championed the idea that the investor should look at the market as though it were an actual entity and potential business partner – Graham called this entity "Mr. Market" – that sometimes asks for too much or too little money to be bought out.

It would be difficult to summarize all of Graham's theories in full. At its core, value investing is about identifying stocks that have been undervalued by the majority of stock market participants. He believed that stock prices were frequently wrong due to irrational and excessive price fluctuations (both upside and downside). Intelligent investors, said Graham, need to be firm in their principles and not follow the crowd.
Graham wrote The Intelligent Investor in 1949 as a guide for the common investor. The book championed the idea of buying low-risk securities in a highly diversified, mathematical way. Graham favored fundamental analysis, capitalizing on the difference between a stock's purchase price and its intrinsic value.

Entering the Investment Field.
Before working for Benjamin Graham, Warren had been an investment salesman – a job that he liked doing, except when the stocks he suggested dropped in value and lost money for his clients. To minimize the potential of having irate clients, Warren started a partnership with his close friends and family. The partnership had unique restrictions attached to it. Warren himself would invest only $100 and, through re-invested management fees, would grow his stake in the partnership. Warren would take half of the partnership’s gains over 4% and would repay the partnership a quarter of any loss incurred. Furthermore, money could only be added or withdrawn from the partnership on December 31st, and partners would have no input about the investments in the partnership.

By 1959, Warren had opened a total of seven partnerships and had a 9.5% stake in more than a million dollars of partnership assets. Three years later by the time he was 30, Warren was a millionaire and merged all of his partnerships into a single entity.
It was at this point that Buffett’s sights turned to directly investing in businesses. He made a $1 million investment in a windmill manufacturing company, and the next year in a bottling company. Buffett used the value-investing techniques he learned in school, as well as his knack for understanding the general business environment, to find bargains on the stock market.

Buying Berkshire Hathaway.
In 1962, Warren saw an opportunity to invest in a New England textile company called Berkshire Hathaway and bought some of its stock. Warren began to aggressively buy shares after a dispute with its management convinced him that the company needed a change in leadership..  Ironically, the purchase of Berkshire Hathaway is one of Warren’s major regrets.
Understanding the beauty of owning insurance companies – clients pay premiums today to possibly receive payments decades later – Warren used Berkshire Hathaway as a holding company to buy National Indemnity Company (the first of many insurance companies he would buy) and used its substantial cash flow to finance further acquisitions.

As a value investor, Warren is a sort of jack-of-all-trades when it comes to industry knowledge. Berkshire Hathaway is a great example. Buffett saw a company that was cheap and bought it, regardless of the fact that he wasn’t an expert in textile manufacturing. Gradually, Buffett shifted Berkshire’s focus away from its traditional endeavors, instead using it as a holding company to invest in other businesses. Over the decades, Warren has bought, held and sold companies in a variety of different industries.

Some of Berkshire Hathaway’s most well-known subsidiaries include, but are not limited to, GEICO (yes, that little Gecko belongs to Warren Buffett), Dairy Queen, NetJets, Benjamin Moore & Co., and Fruit of the Loom.  Again, these are only a handful of companies of which Berkshire Hathaway has a majority share.
The company also has interests in many other companies, including American Express Co. (AXP), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), DirectTV (DTV), General Electric Co. (GE), General Motors Co. (GM), Coca-Cola Co. (KO), International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), Proctor & Gamble Co. (PG) and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC).

Berkshire Woes and Rewards.
Business for Buffett hasn’t always been rosy, though. In 1975, Buffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, were investigated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for fraud. The two maintained that they had done nothing wrong and that the purchase of Wesco Financial Corporation only looked suspicious because of their complex system of businesses.
Further trouble came with a large investment in Salomon Inc. In 1991, news broke of a trader breaking Treasury bidding rules on multiple occasions, and only through intense negotiations with the Treasury did Buffett manage to stave off a ban on buying Treasury notes and subsequent bankruptcy for the firm.
In more recent years, Buffett has acted as a financier and facilitator of major transactions. During the Great Recession, Warren invested and lent money to companies that were facing financial disaster. Roughly 10 years later, the effects of these transactions are surfacing and they’re enormous.

A loan to Mars Inc. resulted in a $680 million profit.
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), of which Berkshire Hathaway bought almost 120 million shares during the Great Recession, is up more than 7 times from its 2009.
American Express Co. (AXP) is up about five times since Warren’s investment in 200813
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) pays $300 million a year and Berkshire Hathaway has the option to buy additional shares at around $7 each – less than half of what it trades at today.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) paid out $500 million in dividends a year and a $500 million redemption bonus when they repurchased the shares.

Most recently, Warren has partnered up with 3G Capital to merge J.H. Heinz Company and Kraft Foods to create the Kraft Heinz Food Company (KHC). The new company is the third largest food and beverage company in North America and fifth largest in the world, and boasts annual revenues of $28 billion. In 2017, he bought up a significant stake in Pilot Travel Centers, the owners of the Pilot Flying J chain of truck stops. He will become a majority owner over a six-year period.
Modesty and quiet living meant that it took Forbes some time to notice Warren and add him to the list of richest Americans, but when they finally did in 1985, he was already a billionaire. Early investors in Berkshire Hathaway could have bought in as low as $275 a share and by 2014 the stock price had reached $200,000, and was trading just under $300,000 earlier this year.

Comparing Buffett to Graham.
Buffett has referred to himself as "85% Graham." Like his mentor, he has focused on company fundamentals and a "stay the course" approach – an approach that enabled both men to build huge personal nest eggs. Seeking a seeks a strong return on investment (ROI), Buffett typically looks for stocks that are valued accurately and offer robust returns for investors.
However, Buffett invests using a more qualitative and concentrated approach than Graham did. Graham preferred to find undervalued, average companies and diversify his holdings among them; Buffett favors quality businesses that already have reasonable valuations (though their stock should still be worth something more) and the ability for large growth.

Other differences lie in how to set intrinsic value, when to take a chance and how deeply to dive into a company that has potential. Graham relied on quantitative methods to a far greater extent than Buffett, who spends his time actually visiting companies, talking with management and understanding the corporate's particular business model. As a result, Graham was more able to and more comfortable investing in lots of smaller companies than Buffett. Consider a baseball analogy: Graham was concerned about swinging at good pitches and getting on base; Buffett prefers to wait for pitches that allow him to score a home run. Many have credited Buffett with having a natural gift for timing that cannot be replicated, whereas Graham's method is friendlier to the average investor.

Buffett Fun Facts.
Buffett only began making large-scale charitable donations at age 75.
Buffett has made some interesting observations about income taxes. Specifically, he's questioned why his effective capital gains tax rate of around 20% is a lower income tax rate than that of his secretary – or for that matter, than that paid by most middle-class hourly or salaried workers. As one of the two or three richest men in the world, having long ago established a mass of wealth that virtually no amount of future taxation can seriously dent, Mr. Buffett offers his opinion from a state of relative financial security that is pretty much without parallel. Even if, for example, every future dollar Warren Buffett earns is taxed at the rate of 99%, it is doubtful that it would affect his standard of living.

Buffett has described The Intelligent Investor as the best book on investing that he has ever read, with Security Analysis a close second. Other favorite reading matter includes:
Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits by Philip A. Fisher, which advises potential investors to not only examine a company's financial statements but to evaluate its management. Fisher focuses on investing in innovative companies, and Buffett has long held him in high regard.
The Outsiders by William N. Thorndike profiles eight CEOs and their blueprints for success. Among the profiled is Thomas Murphy, friend to Warren Buffett and director for Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett has praised Murphy, calling him "overall the best business manager I've ever met."
Stress Test by former Secretary of the Treasury, Timothy F. Geithner, chronicles the financial crisis of 2008-9 from a gritty, first-person perspective. Buffett has called it a must-read for managers, a textbook for how to stay level under unimaginable pressure.
Business Adventures: Twelve Classic Tales from the World of Wall Street by John Brooks is a collection of articles published in The New Yorker in the 1960s. Each tackles famous failures in the business world, depicting them as cautionary tales. Buffett lent his copy of it to Bill Gates, who reportedly has yet to return it.

The Bottom Line.
Warren Buffett’s investments haven't always been successful, but they were well-thought-out and followed value principles. By keeping an eye out for new opportunities and sticking to a consistent strategy, Buffett and the textile company he acquired long ago are considered by many to be one of the most successful investing stories of all time. But you don't have to be a genius "to invest successfully over a lifetime," the man himself claims. "What's needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework."

August 04, 2020


How Bitcoin Disrupts the Finance Industry .

Cryptocurrencies and their underlying blockchain technology are being touted as the next-big-thing after the creation of the internet. One area where these technologies are likely to have a major impact is the financial sector. The blockchain, as a form of distributed ledger technology (DLT), has the potential to transform well-established financial institutions and bring lower costs, faster execution of transactions, improved transparency, auditability of operations, and other benefits. Cryptocurrencies hold the promise of a new native digital asset class without a central authority.

So what do these technological developments mean for the various players in the sector and end users? “Blockchains have the potential to displace any business activity built on transactions occurring on traditional corporate databases, which is what underlies nearly every financial service function. Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications. DLT is therefore both a great opportunity and also a disruptive threat,” according to Bruce Weber, dean of Lerner College and business administration professor, and Andrew Novocin, professor of electrical and computer engineering, both at the University of Delaware.

Earlier this year, Weber, Novocin, and graduate student Jonathan Wood conducted a literature review on cryptocurrencies and DLT for the SWIFT Institute. Based on this review, the SWIFT institute recently issued a grant to conduct new research on DLT and cryptocurrencies in the financial sector. Weber and Novocin noted that just as disruptors like Amazon, Google, Facebook and Uber built software platforms and thriving businesses thanks to the connectivity provided by internet standards, next-generation startups will build new services and businesses with blockchains. “Many pundits expect blockchain, as a distributed technology, to become the foundation for new services and applications that have completely different rules from those running on hierarchical and controlled databases. Cryptocurrencies are an early example but many others will follow,” they added.

Kartik Hosanagar, a Wharton professor of marketing and operations, information and decisions, pointed out that the financial services sector is full of intermediaries such as banks that help create trust among transacting parties like lenders and borrowers. Blockchain, he said, is a mechanism to create trust without centralized control. “The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies, Hosanagar pointed out that most of the value today is tied to speculative buying rather than actual use cases. But having a currency without a central authority offers “certain unique kinds of protections especially in countries with troubled central banks.” For example, Venezuela’s currency is rapidly losing value. For people who stored their savings in crypto, there was greater protection against such rapid currency devaluations. “Of course, cryptocurrencies have their own instabilities, but they aren’t tied to actions by central banks and that’s particularly relevant in countries and economies where citizens don’t trust their governments and central banks,” he said.

“Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications.”–Bruce Weber and Andrew Novocin

Hosanagar expects the first wave of applications to be rolled out in “private” blockchains where a central authority such as a financial institution and its partners are the only ones with the permission to participate (as opposed to public, permissionless blockchains where participants are anonymous and there is no central authority). Applications in the private blockchains, he said, will be more secure and will offer some of the benefits of decentralized ledgers but will not be radically different from the way things work at present. However, over time, he expects smart contracts (self-executing contracts when requirements are met) to be offered on public blockchain networks like Ethereum. “When securities are traded, intermediaries provide trust, and they charge commissions. Blockchains can help provide such trust in a low-cost manner. But trade of securities is governed by securities laws. Smart contracts offer a way to ensure compliance with the laws. They have great potential because of their ability to reduce costs while being compliant,” says Hosanagar.

According to Weber and Novocin, one area ripe for transformation is reaching consensus on important benchmark rates and prices. At present, they point out, different proprietary indexes are used to determine interest rates and the price of many mainstream assets. Blockchain can transform this. “Think of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and the recent scandals involving manipulation of benchmark values when they are controlled by a single entity that may not be capable of detecting false or fraudulent data. Blockchain could provide greater transparency around the process of creating agreed upon reference prices, and allow more people to participate in the consensus process.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in some areas intermediaries will find their roles reduced as blockchain allows for automation through greater transparency and traceability. In other areas, intermediaries will find themselves well-placed to take advantage of changing needs of their clients, as firms will need help to manage the shift to new standards as well as the greater complexity of open and traceable blockchain infrastructure. Intermediaries in areas that could potentially be disrupted, they said, “should get involved with projects seeking to set the standards, so that they can stay informed and position themselves to profit from becoming the leaders in the operations of the new markets that will emerge.”

Kevin Werbach, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, and author of a forthcoming book The Blockchain and the New Architecture of Trust,  said that it’s usually not helpful to focus on what aspects of a major existing market will be “transformed” or “disrupted” by new technologies. Important technologies, he said, are far more likely to be integrated into the system than replace it. According to Werbach, while some firms will fail to make the transition and some new ones will take hold, “over the long-run, virtually every historic innovation that eliminated some forms of intermediation also created new forms.”

Blockchain will reduce the massive duplication of information that creates delays, conflicts and confusion in many aspects of financial services, Werbach added. For example, when a syndicate of lenders participates in a loan, having one shared ledger means they don’t all need to keep track of it independently. International payments and corporate stock records are other examples where there are huge inefficiencies due to duplicate record-keeping and intermediaries. “End users won’t see the changes in the deep plumbing of financial services, but it will allow new service providers to emerge and new products to be offered,” said Werbach.

Bumps Along the Way

Angela Walch, professor of law at St. Mary’s University School of Law and a research fellow at the Centre for Blockchain Technologies at University College London, offered another perspective. She said there is a lot of excitement about blockchain as a distributed ledger technology for the financial sector because many believe that it offers a better, more efficient and more resilient form of recordkeeping. However, making use of the blockchain is not as simple as just buying new software and running it. “Blockchain technology is, at core, group recordkeeping. To reap its full benefits, one needs all the relevant members of the group to join the system. This requires collaboration with and across businesses, which is a potentially big hurdle, and may be the hurdle that most limits adoption.”

Governance is the biggest challenge in decentralized organizations, said Weber and Novocin. Members participating in a blockchain-supported financial function may have misaligned incentives, and can end up in gridlock, or with a chaotic outcome. They cite the example of the ‘DAO Hack,’ which was the first prominent smart contract project on the Ethereum network to suffer a large loss of funds. The Ethereum community voted to conduct a hard fork (a radical change to the protocol that makes previously invalid blocks/transactions valid or vice-versa) — reversing the transactions after the hack and essentially refunding the DAO investors. This was in effect a breach of Ethereum’s immutability and it left a sizeable minority of the community bitterly dissatisfied. This group viewed the Ethereum community as forsaking its commitment to immutable, permanent records. They refused to acknowledge the hard fork, and maintained the original Ethereum blockchain, now known as Ethereum Classic (whereas the forked version supported by the Ethereum Foundation is simply Ethereum).

“The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”–Kartik Hosanagar

“Distributed organizations serving an open community need to take care to design their governance systems, incentive structures and decision-making processes to create consensus without unduly slowing down the decision-making,” said Weber and Novocin. “Scenario planning or war gaming are worth exploring at the beginning of blockchain projects. Forward planning enables organizations to swiftly respond in a predictable way that is supportive of stakeholders. Publicizing these plans in advance can also build trust and user confidence.”

Cryptocurrency Risks.

Werbach listed a variety of risks and vulnerabilities related to cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin has shown that the fundamental security of its proof-of-work system is sound, but it has major limitations such as limited scalability, massive energy usage and concentration of mining pools. There has been massive theft of cryptocurrencies from the centralized intermediaries that most people use to hold it, and massive fraud by promoters of initial coin offerings and other schemes. Manipulation is widespread on lightly-regulated cryptocurrency exchanges.

For example, roughly half of Bitcoin transactions are with Tether, a “stablecoin” that claims to be backed by U.S. dollars but has never been audited and is involved in highly suspicious behavior. Money laundering and other criminal activity is a serious problem if transactions do not require some check of real-world identities. “There are major efforts to address all of these risks and vulnerabilities. Some are technical, some are business opportunities, and some are regulatory questions. There must be recognition among cryptocurrency proponents that maturation of the industry will require cooperation in many cases with incumbents and regulators,” added Werbach.

Hosanagar cautions that while decentralization offers significant value — and a significant number of miners/validators must verify the transaction for it to be validated — it is still susceptible to collusion. If one or a few companies running lots of miners/validators in a small network collude, they can affect the sanctity of the network. The big risk with cryptocurrencies, he added, is that most activity as of today is ultimately tied to speculation. It’s important for cryptocurrencies to discover a “killer app soon so there is some underlying value created beyond speculation of its future value,” Hosanagar concludes.

The Way Ahead?

Given all these challenges, what is the current mindset in the financial sector towards adopting these new technologies? And, importantly, should one push for wide acceptance and deployment, or is there need for them to stabilize first?

According to Werbach, “It’s not an either-or” choice. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in general, he noted, are immature currently. However, there are some areas where they are already able to be deployed effectively. The best way to work through today’s problems, is “to build working systems and see where difficulties arise,” Werbach said. Looking ahead, integration with law, regulation and governance will be critical. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies represent a new form of trust, he added. They will only succeed if they become sufficiently trustworthy, beyond the basic security of the distributed ledgers. “Law, regulation and governance are three major mechanisms to produce trustworthy systems that scale up to society-wide adoption. We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables. I’m optimistic about that process over time.”

“We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables.”–Kevin Werbach

Walch noted that while there are claims that some consortia are putting ‘blockchain’ systems into production, in many cases it appears that what they are calling a blockchain bears little to no resemblance to the original blockchain technology behind Bitcoin. In many instances, she said, existing shared databases are being called ‘blockchain’ for marketing purposes. “If people do use something they call DLT or blockchain technology in important financial systems, my hope is that they make the decision based on actual capabilities of the tech rather than its widely hyped and generally overstated capabilities,” Walch said. “Permissioned blockchains, which are the variation most likely to be used for financial systems recordkeeping, are very different from public blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum. I hope that a more modest and accurate understanding of the actual characteristics of permissioned blockchains sinks in before they are widely adopted.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies or cryptoassets, Walch said that the financial sector’s interest is “less about recordkeeping and more about a new financial asset that it can make money off of.” She pointed out that at present there is no clarity on how power and accountability work in these systems. The ongoing operation of crypto systems and the value they embed and support is reliant on the competence of, and ethical behavior by, unaccountable software developers and validators. “The financial sector believes it understands and can manage the risks of cryptoassets, but I am less certain and worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class. This has been a bad mixture in the past,” says Walch. “I think it would be more responsible to let cryptosystems exist on their own for a while longer to let more of the kinks get worked out — if they can be; I’m not sure the governance ones can — rather than to rapidly integrate them into the financial system as we seem to be doing.”

“I … worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class.”–Angela Walch

Conversely, Weber and Novocin feel that the financial industry is cautious about the new DLT technology. According to them, to build confidence in new blockchain systems there needs to be transparency around how the processes work and what the benefits are, and in order to secure adoption, they need to be straightforward to use. “Pundits have drawn parallels to the open source Linux operating system. Although only a few individuals use Linux directly, it quietly runs the vast majority of servers and cloud processors across the world. Similarly, early adoption of blockchain will likely happen in the background of business processes. Companies should get involved now, even if it is just to experiment with the concepts. By gaining familiarity with these new tools, they will be ready as the space continues to develop.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in the next few years, many more businesses will implement private blockchains to improve the transparency and traceability of their financial operations, supply chains, inventory management systems and other internal business systems. Clearer standards will be adopted and a few high-profile projects will emerge. Meanwhile, they said, R&D will continue among the many decentralized blockchain projects to invent more scalable public ledgers whether it be blockchain, Tangle, Hashgraph or something new. “Work is needed on better and more efficient consensus models, whether it be a new form of proof-of-stake or proof-of-work, or something else. There are many established groups, startups, companies and research teams that organizations can join, partner with, or support in order to contribute to research and expand their capabilities.”




Bitcoin (Currency),Bitcoin,Finance (Industry),Industry (Organization Sector),Brad Templeton,Singularity University,Innovation,Internet,Web,Website,Google,Disruption,Technology,Technological,Money,Currency,Gold,Big Think,BigThink,BigThink.com,Education,Educational,Lifelong Learning,EDU

July 16, 2020


How the Blockchain Will Impact the Financial Sector.

Cryptocurrencies and their underlying blockchain technology are being touted as the next-big-thing after the creation of the internet. One area where these technologies are likely to have a major impact is the financial sector. The blockchain, as a form of distributed ledger technology (DLT), has the potential to transform well-established financial institutions and bring lower costs, faster execution of transactions, improved transparency, auditability of operations, and other benefits. Cryptocurrencies hold the promise of a new native digital asset class without a central authority.

So what do these technological developments mean for the various players in the sector and end users? “Blockchains have the potential to displace any business activity built on transactions occurring on traditional corporate databases, which is what underlies nearly every financial service function. Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications. DLT is therefore both a great opportunity and also a disruptive threat,” according to Bruce Weber, dean of Lerner College and business administration professor, and Andrew Novocin, professor of electrical and computer engineering, both at the University of Delaware.

Earlier this year, Weber, Novocin, and graduate student Jonathan Wood conducted a literature review on cryptocurrencies and DLT for the SWIFT Institute. Based on this review, the SWIFT institute recently issued a grant to conduct new research on DLT and cryptocurrencies in the financial sector. Weber and Novocin noted that just as disruptors like Amazon, Google, Facebook and Uber built software platforms and thriving businesses thanks to the connectivity provided by internet standards, next-generation startups will build new services and businesses with blockchains. “Many pundits expect blockchain, as a distributed technology, to become the foundation for new services and applications that have completely different rules from those running on hierarchical and controlled databases. Cryptocurrencies are an early example but many others will follow,” they added.

Kartik Hosanagar, a Wharton professor of marketing and operations, information and decisions, pointed out that the financial services sector is full of intermediaries such as banks that help create trust among transacting parties like lenders and borrowers. Blockchain, he said, is a mechanism to create trust without centralized control. “The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies, Hosanagar pointed out that most of the value today is tied to speculative buying rather than actual use cases. But having a currency without a central authority offers “certain unique kinds of protections especially in countries with troubled central banks.” For example, Venezuela’s currency is rapidly losing value. For people who stored their savings in crypto, there was greater protection against such rapid currency devaluations. “Of course, cryptocurrencies have their own instabilities, but they aren’t tied to actions by central banks and that’s particularly relevant in countries and economies where citizens don’t trust their governments and central banks,” he said.

“Any financial operation that has low transparency and limited traceability is vulnerable to disruption by blockchain applications.”–Bruce Weber and Andrew Novocin

Hosanagar expects the first wave of applications to be rolled out in “private” blockchains where a central authority such as a financial institution and its partners are the only ones with the permission to participate (as opposed to public, permissionless blockchains where participants are anonymous and there is no central authority). Applications in the private blockchains, he said, will be more secure and will offer some of the benefits of decentralized ledgers but will not be radically different from the way things work at present. However, over time, he expects smart contracts (self-executing contracts when requirements are met) to be offered on public blockchain networks like Ethereum. “When securities are traded, intermediaries provide trust, and they charge commissions. Blockchains can help provide such trust in a low-cost manner. But trade of securities is governed by securities laws. Smart contracts offer a way to ensure compliance with the laws. They have great potential because of their ability to reduce costs while being compliant,” says Hosanagar.

According to Weber and Novocin, one area ripe for transformation is reaching consensus on important benchmark rates and prices. At present, they point out, different proprietary indexes are used to determine interest rates and the price of many mainstream assets. Blockchain can transform this. “Think of the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and the recent scandals involving manipulation of benchmark values when they are controlled by a single entity that may not be capable of detecting false or fraudulent data. Blockchain could provide greater transparency around the process of creating agreed upon reference prices, and allow more people to participate in the consensus process.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in some areas intermediaries will find their roles reduced as blockchain allows for automation through greater transparency and traceability. In other areas, intermediaries will find themselves well-placed to take advantage of changing needs of their clients, as firms will need help to manage the shift to new standards as well as the greater complexity of open and traceable blockchain infrastructure. Intermediaries in areas that could potentially be disrupted, they said, “should get involved with projects seeking to set the standards, so that they can stay informed and position themselves to profit from becoming the leaders in the operations of the new markets that will emerge.”

Kevin Werbach, Wharton professor of legal studies and business ethics, and author of a forthcoming book The Blockchain and the New Architecture of Trust,  said that it’s usually not helpful to focus on what aspects of a major existing market will be “transformed” or “disrupted” by new technologies. Important technologies, he said, are far more likely to be integrated into the system than replace it. According to Werbach, while some firms will fail to make the transition and some new ones will take hold, “over the long-run, virtually every historic innovation that eliminated some forms of intermediation also created new forms.”


Blockchain will reduce the massive duplication of information that creates delays, conflicts and confusion in many aspects of financial services, Werbach added. For example, when a syndicate of lenders participates in a loan, having one shared ledger means they don’t all need to keep track of it independently. International payments and corporate stock records are other examples where there are huge inefficiencies due to duplicate record-keeping and intermediaries. “End users won’t see the changes in the deep plumbing of financial services, but it will allow new service providers to emerge and new products to be offered,” said Werbach.

Bumps Along the Way

Angela Walch, professor of law at St. Mary’s University School of Law and a research fellow at the Centre for Blockchain Technologies at University College London, offered another perspective. She said there is a lot of excitement about blockchain as a distributed ledger technology for the financial sector because many believe that it offers a better, more efficient and more resilient form of recordkeeping. However, making use of the blockchain is not as simple as just buying new software and running it. “Blockchain technology is, at core, group recordkeeping. To reap its full benefits, one needs all the relevant members of the group to join the system. This requires collaboration with and across businesses, which is a potentially big hurdle, and may be the hurdle that most limits adoption.”

Governance is the biggest challenge in decentralized organizations, said Weber and Novocin. Members participating in a blockchain-supported financial function may have misaligned incentives, and can end up in gridlock, or with a chaotic outcome. They cite the example of the ‘DAO Hack,’ which was the first prominent smart contract project on the Ethereum network to suffer a large loss of funds. The Ethereum community voted to conduct a hard fork (a radical change to the protocol that makes previously invalid blocks/transactions valid or vice-versa) — reversing the transactions after the hack and essentially refunding the DAO investors. This was in effect a breach of Ethereum’s immutability and it left a sizeable minority of the community bitterly dissatisfied. This group viewed the Ethereum community as forsaking its commitment to immutable, permanent records. They refused to acknowledge the hard fork, and maintained the original Ethereum blockchain, now known as Ethereum Classic (whereas the forked version supported by the Ethereum Foundation is simply Ethereum).

“The power of eliminating intermediaries is the ability to lower transaction costs and take back control from powerful financial intermediaries.”–Kartik Hosanagar

“Distributed organizations serving an open community need to take care to design their governance systems, incentive structures and decision-making processes to create consensus without unduly slowing down the decision-making,” said Weber and Novocin. “Scenario planning or war gaming are worth exploring at the beginning of blockchain projects. Forward planning enables organizations to swiftly respond in a predictable way that is supportive of stakeholders. Publicizing these plans in advance can also build trust and user confidence.”

Cryptocurrency Risks.

Werbach listed a variety of risks and vulnerabilities related to cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin has shown that the fundamental security of its proof-of-work system is sound, but it has major limitations such as limited scalability, massive energy usage and concentration of mining pools. There has been massive theft of cryptocurrencies from the centralized intermediaries that most people use to hold it, and massive fraud by promoters of initial coin offerings and other schemes. Manipulation is widespread on lightly-regulated cryptocurrency exchanges.

For example, roughly half of Bitcoin transactions are with Tether, a “stablecoin” that claims to be backed by U.S. dollars but has never been audited and is involved in highly suspicious behavior. Money laundering and other criminal activity is a serious problem if transactions do not require some check of real-world identities. “There are major efforts to address all of these risks and vulnerabilities. Some are technical, some are business opportunities, and some are regulatory questions. There must be recognition among cryptocurrency proponents that maturation of the industry will require cooperation in many cases with incumbents and regulators,” added Werbach.

Hosanagar cautions that while decentralization offers significant value — and a significant number of miners/validators must verify the transaction for it to be validated — it is still susceptible to collusion. If one or a few companies running lots of miners/validators in a small network collude, they can affect the sanctity of the network. The big risk with cryptocurrencies, he added, is that most activity as of today is ultimately tied to speculation. It’s important for cryptocurrencies to discover a “killer app soon so there is some underlying value created beyond speculation of its future value,” Hosanagar concludes.

The Way Ahead?

Given all these challenges, what is the current mindset in the financial sector towards adopting these new technologies? And, importantly, should one push for wide acceptance and deployment, or is there need for them to stabilize first?

According to Werbach, “It’s not an either-or” choice. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in general, he noted, are immature currently. However, there are some areas where they are already able to be deployed effectively. The best way to work through today’s problems, is “to build working systems and see where difficulties arise,” Werbach said. Looking ahead, integration with law, regulation and governance will be critical. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies represent a new form of trust, he added. They will only succeed if they become sufficiently trustworthy, beyond the basic security of the distributed ledgers. “Law, regulation and governance are three major mechanisms to produce trustworthy systems that scale up to society-wide adoption. We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables. I’m optimistic about that process over time.”

“We need to find ways to address the legitimate concerns of governments without overly restricting the innovations that blockchain technology enables.”–Kevin Werbach

Walch noted that while there are claims that some consortia are putting ‘blockchain’ systems into production, in many cases it appears that what they are calling a blockchain bears little to no resemblance to the original blockchain technology behind Bitcoin. In many instances, she said, existing shared databases are being called ‘blockchain’ for marketing purposes. “If people do use something they call DLT or blockchain technology in important financial systems, my hope is that they make the decision based on actual capabilities of the tech rather than its widely hyped and generally overstated capabilities,” Walch said. “Permissioned blockchains, which are the variation most likely to be used for financial systems recordkeeping, are very different from public blockchains like Bitcoin or Ethereum. I hope that a more modest and accurate understanding of the actual characteristics of permissioned blockchains sinks in before they are widely adopted.”

Regarding cryptocurrencies or cryptoassets, Walch said that the financial sector’s interest is “less about recordkeeping and more about a new financial asset that it can make money off of.” She pointed out that at present there is no clarity on how power and accountability work in these systems. The ongoing operation of crypto systems and the value they embed and support is reliant on the competence of, and ethical behavior by, unaccountable software developers and validators. “The financial sector believes it understands and can manage the risks of cryptoassets, but I am less certain and worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class. This has been a bad mixture in the past,” says Walch. “I think it would be more responsible to let cryptosystems exist on their own for a while longer to let more of the kinks get worked out — if they can be; I’m not sure the governance ones can — rather than to rapidly integrate them into the financial system as we seem to be doing.”

“I … worry that hubris and greed are driving the push to create cryptoassets as a real asset class.”–Angela Walch

Conversely, Weber and Novocin feel that the financial industry is cautious about the new DLT technology. According to them, to build confidence in new blockchain systems there needs to be transparency around how the processes work and what the benefits are, and in order to secure adoption, they need to be straightforward to use. “Pundits have drawn parallels to the open source Linux operating system. Although only a few individuals use Linux directly, it quietly runs the vast majority of servers and cloud processors across the world. Similarly, early adoption of blockchain will likely happen in the background of business processes. Companies should get involved now, even if it is just to experiment with the concepts. By gaining familiarity with these new tools, they will be ready as the space continues to develop.”

Weber and Novocin expect that in the next few years, many more businesses will implement private blockchains to improve the transparency and traceability of their financial operations, supply chains, inventory management systems and other internal business systems. Clearer standards will be adopted and a few high-profile projects will emerge. Meanwhile, they said, R&D will continue among the many decentralized blockchain projects to invent more scalable public ledgers whether it be blockchain, Tangle, Hashgraph or something new. “Work is needed on better and more efficient consensus models, whether it be a new form of proof-of-stake or proof-of-work, or something else. There are many established groups, startups, companies and research teams that organizations can join, partner with, or support in order to contribute to research and expand their capabilities.”




Bitcoin (Currency),Bitcoin,Finance (Industry),Industry (Organization Sector),Brad Templeton,Singularity University,Innovation,Internet,Web,Website,Google,Disruption,Technology,Technological,Money,Currency,Gold,Big Think,BigThink,BigThink.com,Education,Educational,Lifelong Learning,EDU

July 16, 2020

5 Successful women at Morgan Stanley share their best career advice.

Wall Street has not traditionally been a woman's world.
At the senior level, women make up only 20% to 35% of executives on the Street.


But there are women who have made it, and they can serve as valuable resources for others hoping to build careers in finance.

Morgan Stanley spoke to a handful of its senior women and published their best pieces of advice in a recent blog post.

Here's what some of those women had to say.

You don't always have to say 'yes' — not even to opportunities offered to you.

"Don't miss out on potentially fantastic roles or jobs by thinking that you need to follow a particular career path. But don't say 'yes' to every opportunity that's offered to you either. Make sure you have someone you trust, who can help you think through opportunities as they come up."

Celeste Mellet Brown — Managing Director, Corporate Treasurer.


Stop apologizing.

"When I first started my career, I used to be apprehensive about voicing my opinions, so I'd often apologize for giving them. My boss told me I should never apologize for being myself, and that advice has been transformative."

Katy Zhao — Vice President, Investment Products & Services, Wealth Management.


There are 3 things you're going to need.

"First, you need to have a dream; second an idea of what your goal is and third, passion. Obviously having the skill set and working hard are important, but if you don’t have a dream and a goal, then don’t be surprised when you don't get there. And if you don't fill your dream with passion, then you can become disheartened about your career choice during the tough times. And there are always tough times in a cyclical business like finance."

Wei Sun Christianson — CEO Morgan Stanley China, Co-CEO Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific.


Be honest.

"When I got my first management position nearly 15 years ago, my global manager said to remember, 'Transparency and honesty are key to managing relationships and gaining trust from people. And it's harder than you think.' It's true. It's incredibly hard sometimes to deliver a message you know someone is not going to like, but in the long run, it really pays off to be as transparent about a situation as you can be."

Yuki Hashimoto — Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income, Japan.


Network with people outside of your usual circle.

"It's incredibly beneficial to your career to broaden your network outside your immediate team. If you build relationships with colleagues in other teams or divisions, it'll give you a support network you can turn to for career advice. I think that having a good network can also help you do your job better, because you are better connected to the wider business."

Jessica Alsford, Executive Director, Head of Sustainable+Responsible Investment, Equity Research.

July 12, 2020

There’s Enough Math in Finance Already. What’s Missing is Imagination.

For some of us, it was Spock. For others, a humiliating performance as a pilgrim in the kindergarten musical.  For me, it was William Blake’s relentless (and beautiful) attacks on Reason. But everyone at some point encounters – and many of us swallow – the dangerous notion that creativity and calculation are irreconcilable enemies.

This perspective lives at the very heart of our school curricula from first grade through graduate school, as our talents are identified and we, complicit in the scheme, label ourselves ‘artistic’ or ‘sporty’ or ‘scientific.’ No doubt there are real, epigenetic differences in the way people think and see the world, but in epigenesis lies the key: Nature gives us talents, but nurture determines how we use them, and how mono or multidimensional our minds become.

Like many quants – the mathematicians whose equations shape high-stakes decision making on Wall Street – Emanuel Derman arrived on Wall Street with little knowledge of economic theory. Unlike many of his colleagues, though, he had a background in theoretical physics, a field in which imagination and mathematics are happy bedfellows. From 1990-2000, Derman led Goldman Sachs’ Quantitative Strategies group, presiding over the rise of mathematical modeling as the engine driving financial betting on Wall Street.

The nearly insurmountable challenge of mathematical modeling in finance, says Derman, author of the forthcoming Models.Behaving.Badly., is that you are trying to predict the future based the behavior of highly erratic variables – i.e. people. To forecast human behavior with some reasonable degree of accuracy, mathematical models need highly imaginative designers with a profound grasp of human psychology – oracles who can foresee shifts in the global financial landscape and predict people’s reactions to them. Such designers are rare indeed, if they exist at all.

Still, like weather forecasts, the best mathematical models can help us to make better decisions, so long as we keep in mind that their predictive power depends upon the creative vision of the people who designed them, and that it is always vulnerable to refutation by developments in the real world. In other words, so long as we control the tools, not the other way around.

What's the Significance?

Faulty financial models, and Wall Street's overreliance on them, certainly played a role in the collapse of 1998, whose ongoing repercussions are manifest in the demonstrations going on right now in New York City and nationwide. And there are other massive, underlying issues – greed, unequal distribution of opportunity – that bear significant responsibility and intense scrutiny, of course. But math is not to blame – it is a tool, like science, that when guided by imagination and human understanding can expand the scope of our vision. It can help us to peer, however dimly, into the future.

Math’s not to blame, but a religious reverence for mathematical objectivity might be. We are susceptible to a modern-day form of idol worship whereby the sophistication of our technology and data-crunching power sometimes dazzles us into forgetting that these are human creations, designed by people, for people. And when they are applied to human problems, we cannot afford to treat them as perfect, alien entities whose wisdom exceeds our own.

As the early Internet pioneer Jaron Lanier points out in his digital-age cautionary manifesto You Are Not a Gadget, “Software expresses ideas about everything from the nature of a musical note to the nature of personhood. Software is also subject to an exceptionally rigid process of “lock-in.”* Therefore, ideas (in the present era, when human affairs are increasingly software-driven) have become more subject to lock-in than in previous eras.”

If digitized ideas are uniquely vulnerable to lock-in, we need to be exceedingly careful and creative in crafting them. For example, the government-driven “school reform movement” that has swept public education nationwide since 2001’s No Child Left Behind Act, seeks to transform learning based on data-collection from standardized tests, themselves a highly imperfect model of learning. In many cases, school systems rely on data from these tests to make hiring and instructional decisions, to a degree entirely unwarranted by the tests’ current level of sophistication. The clarion call of this movement is the demand for “objective” learning. That’s what the tests are supposedly designed to measure. But learners aren’t really objective. Nor is thinking, which is what, in the end, schools are supposed to teach.

Computers, databases, and other models of reality aren’t going anywhere – the technology will continue to become more sophisticated and its role in our lives will continue to deepen. Now, therefore, is the time for us to recognize where machines can meet our needs and where they cannot – and to design them for human use rather than seeking to adapt ourselves to their shortcomings.

*The process whereby an idea or a model becomes the basis for subsequent development, so that its flaws cannot be remedied without dismantling the entire system that is built upon it.



July 11, 2020


How to Stop Being Broke.

If you're sick of being broke, it's time to take control of your finances! Whether you need to work on your spending habits, learn how to save, or find ways to earn more money, you can find a way to stop being broke. Follow these steps to start working towards financial freedom and better peace of mind.

Part 1 Getting into the Right Mindset.
1. Set goals. If you want to change your financial situation, you need to get specific about want you want to accomplish. Think about exactly what you want your finances to look like and what you can do to achieve those goals.
Setting short-term goals in addition to long-term goals can help keep you motivated by providing you with a sense of accomplishment.
Create a budget for non-essential items and hold yourself accountable for it each month. If you go over-budget one month, tell yourself that your budget for the next month is reduced as a result.
2. Stop comparing yourself to others. If you're spending beyond your means because you feel that you need to keep up with your friends or show others that you can afford a certain lifestyle, you're not doing yourself any favors. Stop worrying about what others can afford and think about how you can live within your means.
Stop equating your self-worth with your ability to buy things. This kind of thinking will make you extremely unhappy in the long run and will probably get you stuck in debt forever.
3. Track your expenses. To understand exactly where all your money is going, keep careful track of every dollar you spend. You can do this with a pen and paper or electronically if you use a card for everything, but make sure to account for everything. This simple habit will help you spend more wisely.
Try categorizing your expenses and adding them up on a monthly basis. For example, you could create categories for food, housing, transportation, utilities, insurance, entertainment, and clothing. Then calculate what percentage of your income you are spending on each category. You might realize that your expenses in some of these categories are way too high.
To understand how much you can afford to spend each day, subtract your fixed expenses from your monthly income and divide the remaining amount by 31.
4. Make a plan for getting out of debt. If you are broke because you have credit card debt, a car payment, or student loans, think about what you can do to pay off these debts faster.
Making even a few extra payments each year can help you pay off your debts much faster.
5. Start saving. This may seem impossible if you are always broke, but planning for the future will help you get out of this cycle. Start small by just putting $50 in an emergency fund each month.
Don't forget to save for retirement! Take advantage of the 401k offerings at your company or open an IRA account.

Part 2 Avoiding Money Traps.
1. Avoid lending to others. While you may want to help out your loved ones who are in need, you really shouldn't be lending money if you can't afford to pay your own bills.
2. Avoid payday loans. While they may seem like a good solution if you're strapped for cash, the interest rates are ridiculously high, so they will only get you further into debt.
3. Understand how much it will really cost. Before you take out any kind of loan or finance any purchase, be sure to calculate what your monthly payments will be, how long it will take you to repay the debt, and how much you will be paying in interest.
In some cases, paying interest may be worth it. For example, most people cannot afford to purchase a house without taking out a mortgage, but depending on the price of the house and the average cost of rent in your area, you might still be saving a significant amount of money by choosing to buy with a mortgage instead of renting.
Be especially wary of high interest rates for depreciating assets like vehicles. If you decide to sell your vehicle after you have owned it for several years, it may be worth less than what you owe on it. This can also happen with real estate when the market conditions are poor.
4. Avoid impulse buys. If you always have a plan for what you will buy, you will have a much easier time managing your finances.
If you have a hard time controlling your purchases when you go to the mall, try to avoid going to the mall at all.
Write out a list when you go shopping so you will always know exactly what you need to buy.
5. Use credit cards wisely. If you have a harder time keeping track of your expenses and sticking to your budget when you use a credit card, stop using it.
Paying with cash instead of a credit card will allow you to visualize how much of your available funds you are spending on a given purchase.
If you are able to stick to your budget when using a credit card, look for one that has no annual fee and will reward you with cash back or other incentives. Just make sure you always pay your bill on time or these incentives will not be worth the price you are paying in interest.

Part 3 Spending Less.
1. Assess your daily or weekly spending habits. Once you have a solid grasp on what you are spending your money on, you can start cutting out expensive habits.
2. Buy used items. You can save on everything from your next car to furnishings for your home by buying gently used items.
You can sometimes find really great clothes that have barely been worn at thrift shops for a fraction of the price.
3. Look for monthly expenses that can be cut. If you pay for monthly memberships or subscriptions, carefully assess how much they cost, how much you use them, and whether you could give them up.
Make sure you're not paying for services that you never use. For example, if you have premium cable channels that you never watch, you can cancel them without feeling like you are making any sacrifices. The same goes for your cell phone bill if you are paying for more data than you ever use.
4. Compare items or brands when shopping. If you're on a tight budget, you want to make sure you're always getting the best deal on absolutely everything. Take some time to compare prices for items you purchase regularly and for large purchases.
If you've had the same auto insurance carrier or cable company for a long time, there might be better deals out there, so be sure to comparison shop regularly.
Shopping for necessities online can be cheaper in some instances, but make sure you take shipping charges into account.
Use coupons to save some extra cash. Keep in mind that many retailers accept competitors' coupons.
5. Ask for a better deal. You can always ask your service providers for better deals, especially if you've been a loyal customer. The worst they can say is no.
Try this with your cable and internet providers, insurance companies, and cell phone carriers.
6. Spend less on entertainment or at restaurants. Whether it's dining out or going to amusement parks, entertainment can eat up a big chunk of your budget. Look for less expensive ways to have fun.
Learn to cook at home and keep the fridge well stocked with ingredients for things that you know you can cook from scratch when you come home late and don't have much time to whip up a grand meal.
Instead of going out to eat with friends, invite them over for a potluck.
7. Do more yourself. It may be convenient to use a laundry service or to have someone else shovel your driveway, but if you're physically capable of doing these things yourself. Think about the money you can save.
If you're not very handy, try to teach yourself to do more around the house. If you need a simple repair done, you may be able to watch a video online or take a class at a local home improvement store to learn how to do it yourself.
8. Save money on energy. Go green around the house to save money on your utility bills each month.
Sealing up air gaps can reduce your heating and cooling bills. If you own your home, investing in a properly insulated attic can make a huge difference.
Turning your heat down just a few degrees in the winter can make a big difference in your energy bills as well. A programmable thermostat will let you automate the temperature of your house so you won't spend money on heating the place to a comfortable level when you're not at home.
9. Avoid bank and credit card fees. Choose your bank and credit card providers wisely in order to avoid unnecessary fees.
Make sure to only use the ATM at your bank if you will get charged for using outside ATMs.
10. Aim to have a few no-spend days a month. After a while, it becomes a game: "How can I run my life today without writing anything down in my little blue book?" "How ingenious can I be to make do with the things, food, and resources I already have at my disposal?" See how often you can turn this into a habit.

Part 4 Earning More.
1. Get a better job. If spending less is just not enough, it may be time to get a better job that will allow you to make more money. Start by updating your resume, searching for listings online, and networking with other professionals in your field.
Don't forget to look for advancement opportunities within your company.
2. Do something else on the side. Using your skills to provide freelance or consulting services is a great way to earn additional income. If this won't work with your profession, get a part-time job or find creative ways to make some extra cash on the side.
You can make some extra money by performing jobs like mowing lawns, cleaning houses, or even walking dogs for people in your neighborhood.
3. Sell stuff you don't need. You probably have at least a few possessions that you no longer need or want, and you can turn those items into extra cash by selling them to people who do want them.
If you have lots of unwanted items, try having a yard sale.

Community Q&A.

Question : My family barely has any money. My dad has his own company, but it hasn't gotten any business in a long time. I have some money saved up, and I was think of leaving a little in my dad's wallet. What do you think?
Answer : Definitely do. Work as much as you can and give and much as you can. Also putting your family's money in a good, interest-bearing account can help a lot.

Tips.

To always have money in the bank to pay regular bills, add them up for the past year and divide by 52. Round up to the next 25, 50, or 100 dollars. Remember to add in quarterly or annual bills, too.
Buy clothes that can be used for several different occasions instead of only one-time events.
Use coupons on items whenever you can.
Start a Christmas Club account, but put in more than you expect to spend on gifts. The excess is great for a mini-vacation or special purchase.
Get a jar to collect your spare change. When it's full, take it to the bank. (Don't take it to one of those coin counters, as they charge for counting your change.)
Take it a day at a time. Start small, set goals, reward yourself (not with any type of shopping, of course) and enjoy playing the game.
July 02, 2020

How to Work out a Rental Yield.

Rental yield, essentially, tells you how much you can expect to earn from an investment property that you're renting out. It's typically expressed as a percentage of the cost of the property. You can use this figure to determine if a property you're thinking about buying would be a good investment or to understand your return on investment (ROI) in a property you already own. This figure is also helpful if you're trying to decide if a "buy-to-let" mortgage is affordable for you. To work out the rental yield, you need to know the total costs of buying and owning the property as well as the amount of rent you'll collect.

Method 1 Totaling Property Costs.
1. Calculate your yearly mortgage payments. If you have a mortgage on the property, total the mortgage payments you would make over the course of a year, including interest, taxes, and any associated fees. These payments are part of your cost of owning the property.
Even if you don't have a mortgage, you're likely still responsible for property taxes on the property. Those would also be considered part of your costs of ownership.
If you don't own the property yet, use an estimate of mortgage payments or get an offer from a mortgage company for the property and use that number instead.
2. Get a quote for insurance. If you rent out the property, you'll typically need landlord insurance, which may have different rates than homeowner's insurance. If you don't already own the property, a quote from a reputable insurer will help you estimate this cost.
In addition to landlord's insurance, you may also want to consider other types of insurance to cover damage to the property.
Rent insurance may also be available to you, which provides you some money in the event your tenant breaks their lease or needs to be evicted for nonpayment of rent.
3. Include any management fees or other property expenses. If you've hired a management company to run the property on your behalf, their fees are considered part of your costs. You may also have other property expenses or fees, depending on where the property is located.
For example, if you only own the building but not the land, you may have to pay rent for the land that the property sits on.
If you have a unit in an apartment building or condominium complex, you may also have association fees to consider.
Tip: Include in this category expenses you might incur in the event you have to advertise for a tenant. Fees for listing the property or doing background checks on tenants are also costs of owning and renting the property.
4. Estimate costs for repairs and maintenance. Over the course of the year, your tenant may have things break that need to be repaired. While you can't necessarily predict all of these expenses, you can typically come up with a reasonable estimate based on the age of the property and its fixtures.
You also want to consider major repairs that may be necessary in the event of a natural disaster or other event. While your insurance may cover some of this expense, you'll likely still have to pay a deductible.

Method 2 Determining Gross Rental Yield.
1. Total your yearly rental income. Evaluate how much you charge in rent, then multiply that amount to get the total rent you'll collect each year. If you collect weekly rent, multiply the weekly rent amount by 52. For monthly rent, multiply by 12.
For example, if you rent the property out for $500 a week, you would have an annual rental income of $26,000.
2. Find the current value of the property. If you plan to purchase the property this year, the value of the property would be equal to your purchase price. However, if you already own the property, use the most recent appraisal to determine the current value.
If you're looking at a property for sale, use the asking price as the value of the property, even if you think the asking price is too high and plan to make a lower bid on it.
3. Divide the rental income by the value to find the gross rental yield. Once you have those two figures, complete the equation. Your result will be a decimal value. Multiply that number by 100 to get a percentage.
For example, if your yearly rental income is $26,000 and the property is valued at $360,000, you have a gross rental yield of 7.2%. Gross rental yield is considered ideal if it's somewhere between 7 and 9%, so the gross rental yield for that property is good. Any lower than that, and you likely wouldn't have the cash flow in the event emergency repairs were needed.
Warning: While gross rental yield is easy to calculate, it doesn't take a lot of other factors into account that can affect the investment value of a property, such as the property's location, age, or condition.

Method 3 Calculating Net Rental Yield.
1. Start with your total yearly rental income. Just as when working out gross rental yield, you'll need the total rent you collect from the property in a year. Multiply weekly rent by 52 and monthly rent by 12 to find the annual amount.
For example, if you rented a condominium for $2,000 a month, your annual rental income would be $24,000.
Tip: Net rental yield is typically calculated at the end of the year, looking back at real numbers. If the property was vacant for any period during the year, don't include the rent you would have received for that time in your yearly rental income total.
2. Subtract your annual expenses from the rental income. For net rental yield, you'll also take into account the other costs of owning the property. Include all fees, mortgage payments, interest, taxes, insurance premiums, and other costs associated with the property for the year. Typically these will be monthly expenses, so don't forget to multiply them by 12 to get the annual total.
For example, suppose your annual rental income was $24,000 and the condominium unit cost you $900 a month to maintain. Your annual cost to own the property would be $10,800. When you subtract $10,800 from $24,000, you get $13,200.
3. Divide the result by the current value of the property. The current value of the property is not your mortgage payment, which likely includes interest, taxes, and other fees. Instead, look at the value of the most recent appraisal of the property. That's the amount you could likely sell the property for.
For example, suppose the condominium you own is worth $250,000. You have an annual rental income of $24,000 for the property, which decreased to $13,200 by the costs of owning the property. When you divide $13,200 by $250,000, you get 0.0528.
4. Multiply by 100 to find your net rental yield. Net rental yield, like gross rental yield, is expressed as a percentage of the value of the property. To get that percentage, take the decimal you got when you divided the annual rental income less costs by the current value of the property and multiply it by 100.
To continue the example, if you had annual rental income less costs of $13,200 divided by $250,000, you would have a net rental yield of 5.28%. This is considered a relatively low rental yield, but might still be sustainable depending on the location of the property or your reasons for owning it.

Community Q&A.

Question : When you say an acceptable yield is 7-9%, are you referring to the gross yield or the net yield?
Answer : A yield of 7 to 9% is considered a good yield regardless of whether it is a gross yield or a net yield. The net yield simply gives you more information about the actual cost of owning and managing the property. A property with a gross yield of 7 to 9% may have a much lower net yield, for example, if the property needed extensive renovations or repairs. In that case, it likely wouldn't be a worthwhile investment. However, a lower net yield might be acceptable depending on your reasons for owning the property and its location. For example, you might be willing to take a lower yield in a high-growth area where the property was rapidly appreciating in value.
Question : Does net yield include interest-only costs to the bank?
Answer : Net yield includes all costs of owning the property. If you have a mortgage on the property and are paying interest on that mortgage, those costs would be subtracted from your annual rental income along with all the other costs.
Question : What is the acceptable yield?
Answer : It depends on your goals. I'd say an acceptable average would be a 7-9% yield, but you may be happy taking as low as 4% if it's just supporting a pension, or if the property is located in an up-and-coming area where the value will increase significantly over time.
Question : Is there a good online calculator that will do this for me?
Answer : Excel or Google Docs can do this for you. Both are very good at it and keep track of it too. They both allow you to manipulate data to extract even more information.

Tips.

Work out your rental yield at least once a year. It will change depending on operating expenses and changes in the value of your property. Keeping tabs on your rental yield will help you determine when it's best to sell the property.
There are many real estate and finance companies that offer free rental yield calculators online. Simply search for "rental yield calculator" followed by the name of your country. The country name is necessary to ensure the calculator uses the same currency as you.

Warnings.

If you're comparing investment properties to buy, look at the property's past appreciation and potential to appreciate in the future as well as its rental yield. A high rental yield doesn't necessarily equate to a good investment if the property is in an undesirable area.
June 04, 2020