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Value Investing Strategies.

By ADAM HAYES.
The key to buying an undervalued stock is to thoroughly research the company and make common-sense decisions. Value investor Christopher H. Browne recommends asking if a company is likely to increase its revenue via the following methods:

Raising prices on products.
Increasing sales figures.
Decreasing expenses.
Selling off or closing down unprofitable divisions.

Browne also suggests studying a company's competitors to evaluate its future growth prospects. But the answers to all of these questions tend to be speculative, without any real supportive numerical data. Simply put: There are no quantitative software programs yet available to help achieve these answers, which makes value stock investing somewhat of a grand guessing game. For this reason, Warren Buffett recommends investing only in industries you have personally worked in, or whose consumer goods you are familiar with, like cars, clothes, appliances, and food.

One thing investors can do is choose the stocks of companies that sell high-demand products and services. While it's difficult to predict when innovative new products will capture market share, it's easy to gauge how long a company has been in business and study how it has adapted to challenges over time.

Insider Buying and Selling.
For our purposes, insiders are the company’s senior managers and directors, plus any shareholders who own at least 10% of the company’s stock. A company’s managers and directors have unique knowledge about the companies they run, so if they are purchasing its stock, it’s reasonable to assume that the company’s prospects look favorable.

Likewise, investors who own at least 10% of a company’s stock wouldn’t have bought so much if they didn’t see profit potential. Conversely, a sale of stock by an insider doesn’t necessarily point to bad news about the company’s anticipated performance — the insider might simply need cash for any number of personal reasons. Nonetheless, if mass sell-offs are occurring by insiders, such a situation may warrant further in-depth analysis of the reason behind the sale.

Analyze Earnings Reports.
At some point, value investors have to look at a company's financials to see how its performing and compare it to industry peers.

Financial reports present a company’s annual and quarterly performance results. The annual report is SEC form 10-K, and the quarterly report is SEC form 10-Q. Companies are required to file these reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). You can find them at the SEC website or the company’s investor relations page on their website.

You can learn a lot from a company’s annual report. It will explain the products and services offered as well as where the company is heading.

Analyze Financial Statements.
A company’s balance sheet provides a big picture of the company’s financial condition. The balance sheet consists of two sections, one listing the company’s assets and another listing its liabilities and equity. The assets section is broken down into a company’s cash and cash equivalents; investments; accounts receivable or money owed from customers, inventories, and fixed assets such as plant and equipment.

The liabilities section lists the company’s accounts payable or money owed, accrued liabilities, short-term debt, and long-term debt. The shareholders’ equity section reflects how much money is invested in the company, how many shares outstanding, and how much the company has as retained earnings. Retained earnings is a type of savings account that holds the cumulative profits from the company. Retained earnings are used to pay dividends, for example, and is considered a sign of a healthy, profitable company.

The income statement tells you how much revenue is being generated, the company's expenses, and profits. Looking at the annual income statement rather than a quarterly statement will give you a better idea of the company’s overall position since many companies experience fluctuations in sales volume during the year.

 Studies have consistently found that value stocks outperform growth stocks and the market as a whole, over the long-term.
Couch Potato Value Investing
It is possible to become a value investor without ever reading a 10-K. Couch potato investing is a passive strategy of buying and holding a few investing vehicles for which someone else has already done the investment analysis—i.e., mutual funds or exchange-traded funds. In the case of value investing, those funds would be those that follow the value strategy and buy value stocks—or track the moves of high-profile value investors, like Warren Buffet. Investors can buy shares of his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, which owns or has an interest in dozens of companies the Oracle of Omaha has researched and evaluated.

Risks with Value Investing.
As with any investment strategy, there's the risk of loss with value investing despite it being a low-to-medium-risk strategy. Below we highlight a few of those risks and why losses can occur.

The Figures are Important.
Many investors use financial statements when they make value investing decisions. So if you rely on your own analysis, make sure you have the most updated information and that your calculations are accurate. If not, you may end up making a poor investment or miss out on a great one. If you aren’t yet confident in your ability to read and analyze financial statements and reports, keep studying these subjects and don’t place any trades until you’re truly ready. (For more on this subject, learn more about financial statements.)

One strategy is to read the footnotes. These are the notes in a Form 10-K or Form 10-Q that explain a company’s financial statements in greater detail. The notes follow the statements and explain the company’s accounting methods and elaborate on reported results. If the footnotes are unintelligible or the information they present seems unreasonable, you’ll have a better idea of whether to pass on the stock.

Extraordinary Gains or Losses.
There are some incidents that may show up on a company's income statement that should be considered exceptions or extraordinary. These are generally beyond the company's control and are called extraordinary item—gain or extraordinary item—loss. Some examples include lawsuits, restructuring, or even a natural disaster. If you exclude these from your analysis, you can probably get a sense of the company's future performance.

However, think critically about these items, and use your judgment. If a company has a pattern of reporting the same extraordinary item year after year, it might not be too extraordinary. Also, if there are unexpected losses year after year, this can be a sign that the company is having financial problems. Extraordinary items are supposed to be unusual and nonrecurring. Also, beware of a pattern of write-offs.

Ignoring Ratio Analysis Flaws.
Earlier sections of this tutorial have discussed the calculation of various financial ratios that help investors diagnose a company’s financial health. There isn't just one way to determine financial ratios, which can be fairly problematic. The following can affect how the ratios can be interpreted:

Ratios can be determined using before-tax or after-tax numbers.
Some ratios don't give accurate results but lead to estimations.
Depending on how the term earnings are defined, a company's earnings per share (EPS) may differ.
Comparing different companies by their ratios—even if the ratios are the same—may be difficult since companies have different accounting practices. (Learn more about when a company recognizes profits in Understanding The Income Statement.)

Buying Overvalued Stock.
Overpaying for a stock is one of the main risks for value investors. You can risk losing part or all of your money if you overpay. The same goes if you buy a stock close to its fair market value. Buying a stock that's undervalued means your risk of losing money is reduced, even when the company doesn't do well.

Recall that one of the fundamental principles of value investing is to build a margin of safety into all your investments. This means purchasing stocks at a price of around two-thirds or less of their intrinsic value. Value investors want to risk as little capital as possible in potentially overvalued assets, so they try not to overpay for investments.

Not Diversifying.
Conventional investment wisdom says that investing in individual stocks can be a high-risk strategy. Instead, we are taught to invest in multiple stocks or stock indexes so that we have exposure to a wide variety of companies and economic sectors. However, some value investors believe that you can have a diversified portfolio even if you only own a small number of stocks, as long as you choose stocks that represent different industries and different sectors of the economy. Value investor and investment manager Christopher H. Browne recommends owning a minimum of 10 stocks in his “Little Book of Value Investing.” According to Benjamin Graham, a famous value investor, you should look at choosing 10 to 30 stocks if you want to diversify your holdings.

Another set of experts, though, say differently. If you want to get big returns, try choosing just a few stocks, according to the authors of the second edition of “Value Investing for Dummies.” They say having more stocks in your portfolio will probably lead to an average return. Of course, this advice assumes that you are great at choosing winners, which may not be the case, particularly if you are a value-investing novice.

Listening to Your Emotions.
It is difficult to ignore your emotions when making investment decisions. Even if you can take a detached, critical standpoint when evaluating numbers, fear and excitement may creep in when it comes time to actually use part of your hard-earned savings to purchase a stock. More importantly, once you have purchased the stock, you may be tempted to sell it if the price falls. Keep in mind that the point of value investing is to resist the temptation to panic and go with the herd. So don't fall into the trap of buying when share prices rise and selling when they drop. Such behavior will obliterate your returns. (Playing follow-the-leader in investing can quickly become a dangerous game.

Example of a Value Investment.
Value investors seek to profit from market overreactions that usually come from the release of a quarterly earnings report. As a historical real example, on May 4, 2016, Fitbit released its Q1 2016 earnings report and saw a sharp decline in after-hours trading. After the flurry was over, the company lost nearly 19% of its value. However, while large decreases in a company's share price are not uncommon after the release of an earnings report, Fitbit not only met analyst expectations for the quarter but even increased guidance for 2016.

The company earned $505.4 million in revenue for the first quarter of 2016, up more than 50% when compared to the same time period from one year ago. Further, Fitbit expects to generate between $565 million and $585 million in the second quarter of 2016, which is above the $531 million forecasted by analysts. The company looks to be strong and growing. However, since Fitbit invested heavily in research and development costs in the first quarter of the year, earnings per share (EPS) declined when compared to a year ago. This is all average investors needed to jump on Fitbit, selling off enough shares to cause the price to decline. However, a value investor looks at the fundamentals of Fitbit and understands it is an undervalued security, poised to potentially increase in the future.

The Bottom Line.
Value investing is a long-term strategy. Warren Buffett, for example, buys stocks with the intention of holding them almost indefinitely. He once said, “I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.” You will probably want to sell your stocks when it comes time to make a major purchase or retire, but by holding a variety of stocks and maintaining a long-term outlook, you can sell your stocks only when their price exceeds their fair market value (and the price you paid for them).
July 25, 2020



How to Build a Stock Portfolio.

The stock market and its potential for risk intimidates many people. Nonetheless, a well-built stock portfolio is likely to outperform other investments over time. It is possible to build a stock portfolio alone, but a qualified financial planner can help. Knowing your goals and your willingness to take risks in advance, as well as understanding the nature of the market, can help you build a successful portfolio.

Part 1 Designing Your Portfolio.
1. Know what you're willing to invest. As you invest, you'll need to balance your potential risks against your potential rewards. A portfolio's assets are typically determined by the investor's goals, willingness to take risks, and the length of time the investor intends to hold his portfolio. Some of the most important factors to consider in making these decisions are:
The investor's age.
How much time the investor is willing to spend allowing his investments to grow.
Amount of capital the investor is willing to invest.
Projected capital needs for the future.
Other resources investor may have.
2. Decide what kind of investor you'll be. Portfolios usually fall somewhere in the spectrum between aggressive, or high-risk portfolios, and conservative, or low-risk portfolios. Conservative investors simply try to protect and maintain the value of a portfolio, while aggressive investors tend to take risks with the expectation that some of those risks will pay off. There are various online risk assessment tools you can utilize to help assess your risk tolerance.
Understand that your financial goals may change over time, and adjust your portfolio accordingly. Generally, the younger you are, the more risk you can afford or are willing to take. You may be better served with a growth-oriented portfolio. The older you become, the more you'll think about retirement income, and may be better served with an income-oriented portfolio.
Even during retirement, many still need some portion of their portfolio for growth, as many people are living 20, 30 or more years beyond their retirement date.
3. Divide your capital. Once you've decided what kind of investor you'd like to be and what type of portfolio you want to build, you'll need to determine how you intend to allocate (spread around) your capital. Most investors who are new to the market don't know how to pick stocks. Some important factors include:
Determining which sector(s) to invest in. A sector is the category a given industry is placed in.[8] Examples include telecommunications, financial, information technology, transportation and utilities.
Knowing the market capitalization (aka market cap), which is determined by multiplying a given company's outstanding shares by the current price of one share on the market (large-cap, mid-cap, small-cap, etc.).
It is important to diversify holdings across a variety of sectors and market capitalization to lower a portfolio's overall risk.

Part 2 Making Investments.
1. Understand the different kinds of stocks. Stocks represent an ownership stake in the company that issues them. The money generated from the sale of stock is used by the company for its capital projects, and the profits generated by the company's operation may be returned to investors in the form of dividends. Stocks come in two varieties: common and preferred. Preferred stocks are so called because holders of these stocks are paid dividends before owners of common stocks. Most stocks, however, are common stocks, which can be subdivided into the categories below:
Growth stocks are those projected to increase in value faster than the rest of the market, based on their prior performance record. They may entail more risk over time but offer greater potential rewards in the end.
Income stocks are those that do not fluctuate much but have a history of paying out better dividends than other stocks. This category can include both common and preferred stocks.
Value stocks are those that are "undervalued" by the market and can be purchased at a price lower than the underlying worth of the company would suggest. The theory is that when the market "comes to its senses," the owner of such a stock would stand to make a lot of money.
Blue-chip stocks are those that have performed well for a long enough period of time that they are considered fairly stable investments. They may not grow as rapidly as growth stocks or pay as well as income stocks, but they can be depended upon for steady growth or steady income. They are not, however, immune from the fortunes of the market.
Defensive stocks are shares in companies whose products and services people buy, no matter what the economy is doing. They include the stocks of food and beverage companies, pharmaceutical companies and utilities (among others).
Cyclical stocks, in contrast, rise and fall with the economy. They include stocks in such industries as airlines, chemicals, home building and steel manufacturers.
Speculative stocks include the offerings of young companies with new technologies and older companies with new executive talent. They draw investors looking for something new or a way to beat the market. The performance of these stocks is especially unpredictable, and they are sometimes considered to be a high-risk investment.
2. Analyze stock fundamentals. Fundamentals is the term given to the pool of qualitative and quantitative data that are used to determine whether or not a stock is a worthwhile investment in a long-term analysis of the market. Analyzing a company's fundamentals is usually the first step in determining whether or not an investor will buy shares in that company. It is imperative to analyze fundamentals in order to arrive at a company's intrinsic value - that is, the company's actual value as based on perception of all the tangible and intangible aspects of the business, beyond the current market value.
In analyzing the fundamentals of a company, the investor is trying to determine the future value of a company, with all of its projected profits and losses factored in.
3. Analyze qualitative factors. Qualitative factors, such as the expertise and experience of a company's management, various courses of industry cycles, the strength of a company's research and development incentives, and a company's relationship with its workers, are important to take into account when deciding whether or not to invest in a company's stock. It's also important to understand how the company generates its profits and what that company's business model look like in order to have a broad spectrum of qualitative information about that company's stock options.
Try researching companies online before you invest. You should be able to find information about the company's managers, CEO, and board of directors.
4. Look at the price-to-earnings ratio. The P/E ratio can be figured as either the stock's current price against its earnings per share for the last 12 months ("trailing P/E") or its projected earnings for the next 12 months ("anticipated P/E"). A stock selling for $10 per share that earns 10 cents per share has a P/E ratio of 10 divided by 0.1 or 100; a stock selling for $50 per share that earns $2 per share has a P/E ratio of 50 divided by 2 or 25. You want to buy stock with a relatively low P/E ratio.
When looking at P/E ratio, figure the ratio for the stock for several years and compare it to the P/E ratio for other companies in the same industry as well as for indexes representing the entire market, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the Standard and Poor's (S&P) 500.
Comparing the P/E of a stock in one sector to that of a stock in another sector is however, not informative since P/E's vary widely from industry to industry.
5. Look at the return on equity. Also called return on book value, this figure is the company's income after taxes as a percentage of its total book value. It represents how well shareholders are profiting from the company's success. As with P/E ratio, you need to look at several years' worth of returns on equity to get an accurate picture.
6. Look at total return. Total return includes earnings from dividends as well as changes in the value of the stock. This provides a means of comparing the stock with other types of investments.
7. Try investing in companies trading below their current worth. While a broad spectrum of stock investments is important, analysts often recommend buying stock in companies that are trading for lower than they are worth. This sort of value investing does not, however, mean buying "junk" stocks, or stocks that are steadily declining. Value investments are determined by comparing intrinsic market value against the company's current stock share price, without looking at the short-term market fluctuations.
8. Try investing in growth stocks. Growth stocks are investments in companies that exhibit or are predicted to grow significantly faster than other stocks in the market. This involves analyzing a given company's present performance against its past performance amid the industry's ever-fluctuating climate.

Part 3 Maintaining Your Portfolio.
1. Avoid dipping into investments. Once you've invested capital in a stock, it's important to let the stock grow for at least a year without selling your shares. Consider for all intents and purposes that this money cannot be withdrawn and spent elsewhere.
As part of investing for the long term, determine the amount of money you can afford to commit to the stock market for five years or longer, and set that aside for investing. Money you'll need in a shorter period of time should be invested in shorter-term investments such as money-market accounts, CDs or U.S. Treasury bonds, bills or notes.
2. Diversify your portfolio. No matter how well a stock might be doing at the moment, the price and value of stocks are bound to fluctuate. Diversifying your investment portfolio can help you avoid this pitfall by spreading around your money to a number of stocks.
A well-diversified portfolio is important because in the event that one or more sectors of the economy start to decline, it will remain strong over time and reduce the likelihood of taking a significant hit as the market fluctuates.
Don't just diversify across the spectrum of asset classes. Some experts recommend you should also diversify your stock picks within each asset class represented in your portfolio.
3. Review your portfolio (but not too often). Anticipate that the market will fluctuate. If you check your stocks every day, you might end up feeling anxious over the value of your investments as things go up or down. But by the same token, you should check on your investments periodically.
Checking your portfolio at least once or twice a year is a good idea but research has shown that making rebalancing changes (selling the gains from those holdings which have been profitable and buying shares of those which have lost value) more than twice per year does not offer any benefit.
Some experts recommend checking on the quarterly earnings reports of a given company to see if your predictions for that company are holding true. Make changes as necessary, but don't jump ship every time a share reports a minor decrease in value.
Also important to keep in mind is tax implications of selling: if this is an account into which you've invested after-tax dollars (non-IRA or similar type of brokerage account), then try not to sell anything at a gain for at least one year in order to receive long-term capital gains rather than ordinary income tax treatment on your profits. For most people, the capital gains rate is more favorable than their income tax rate.

FAQ

Question : How do I create an imaginary portfolio ?
Answer : Follow these same steps without investing any money. Follow the progress of the stocks you chose.
Question : Where do I go to invest in marijuana stocks?
Answer : Ask a stockbroker who does business in an area where marijuana is legal.
Question : What does a gain or loss mean in a portfolio chart?
Answer : It refers to an increase or a decrease in the value of an investment.
Question : Which sector does better for next 3 years? In this sector, what are the names of the top 2 companies?
Answer : Anyone who tells you s/he knows what a given economic sector is going to do in the next three years is delusional. Your best bet is to invest in most or all sectors and in various companies with strong reputations.
Question : How do I calculate my returns in my diversified portfolio? And will my returns be lesser if I diversify my investments versus investing a lump sum in a single investment?
Answer : The easiest way to calculate total return on a diversified portfolio is to compare the total current value with the total value at the beginning of whatever period of time you're examining. If the value has risen, you would subtract the original value from the current value, then divide the difference by the original value. You would then multiply the quotient by 100 to get a percentage of return. Divide that percentage by the number of years you're considering to arrive at an annual percentage (which is the most commonly used percentage for the sake of comparison). Diversified portfolios often deliver better results than do single investments over a long period of time.
Question : How do I purchase stocks in South Africa?
Answer : Make online contact with any South African stockbroker registered to trade on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Ask if they do business with foreign investors.
Question : How do I open an account so that I can buy stocks?
Answer : Go to any local or online broker, fill out an application, and deposit some money.
Question : Will the initial money I deposit to open an account to buy or sell stocks be used toward buying or selling, or is it just the fee for opening the account?
Answer : Typically it is for buying stock. Brokers' terms may vary: some may remove part of your deposit to cover fees if you fail to pay them separately.

Tips.
Be aware of wash sale rules: if you decide to sell a stock or stock fund at a loss and buy into a stock or stock fund which is considered substantially similar within a 30-day period, you will not be able to claim that loss on your taxes.
Consult with a qualified financial planner if you're unsure of how to invest or what stocks are safe to invest in.
Be aware of tax consequences (see comments about long-term vs. short-term capital gains under "Maintaining your portfolio" above), and be aware that you will owe taxes on the dividends you earn on those stocks which pay them to you in the year they are earned, whether they were paid out to you or not.
Warnings.
Be aware that not all common stocks pay dividends. Whether a stock pays dividends should be only one factor in choosing it, not necessarily the only factor.
March 30, 2020

How to Start Investing.

It is never too soon to start investing. Investing is the smartest way to secure your financial future and to begin letting your money make more money for you. Investing is not just for people who have plenty of spare cash. On the contrary, anyone can (and should) invest. You can get started with just a little bit of money and a lot of know-how. By formulating a plan and familiarizing yourself with the tools available, you can quickly learn how to start investing.

Part 1 Getting Acquainted with Different Investment Vehicles.
1. Make sure you have a safety net. Holding some money in reserve is a good idea because (a) if you lose your investment you'll have something to fall back on, and (b) it will allow you to be a bolder investor, since you won't be worried about risking every penny you own.
Save between three and six months' worth of expenses. Call it your emergency fund, set aside for large, unexpected expenses (job loss, medical expenses, auto accident, etc.). This money should be in cash or some other form that's very conservative and immediately available.
Once you have an emergency fund established, you can start to save for your long-term goals, like buying a home, retirement, and college tuition.
If your employer offers a retirement plan, this is a great vehicle for saving, because it can save on your tax bill, and your employer may contribute money to match some of your own contributions, which amounts to "free" money for you.
If you don't have a retirement plan through your workplace, most employees are allowed to accumulate tax-deferred savings in a traditional IRA or a Roth IRA. If you are self-employed, you have options like a SEP-IRA or a "SIMPLE" IRA. Once you've determined the type of account(s) to set up, you can then choose specific investments to hold within them.
Get current on all your insurance policies. This includes auto, health, homeowner's/renter's, disability, and life insurance. With luck you'll never need insurance, but it's nice to have in the event of disaster.
2. Learn a little bit about stocks. This is what most people think of when they consider "investing." Put simply, a stock is a share in the ownership of a business, a publicly-held company. The stock itself is a claim on what the company owns — its assets and earnings.  When you buy stock in a company, you are making yourself part-owner. If the company does well, the value of the stock will probably go up, and the company may pay you a "dividend," a reward for your investment. If the company does poorly, however, the stock will probably lose value.
The value of stock comes from public perception of its worth. That means the stock price is driven by what people think it's worth, and the price at which a stock is purchased or sold is whatever the market will bear, even if the underlying value (as measured by certain fundamentals) might suggest otherwise.
A stock price goes up when more people want to buy that stock than sell it.  Stock prices go down when more people want to sell than buy. In order to sell stock, you have to find someone willing to buy at the listed price. In order to buy stock, you have to find someone selling their stock at a price you like.
The job of a stockbroker is to pair up buyers and sellers.
"Stocks" can mean a lot of different things. For example, penny stocks are stocks that trade at relatively low prices, sometimes just pennies.
Various stocks are bundled into what's called an index, like the Dow Jones Industrials, which is a list of 30 high-performing stocks. An index is a useful indicator of the performance of the whole market.
3. Familiarize yourself with bonds. Bonds are issuances of debt, similar to an IOU. When you buy a bond, you're essentially lending someone money.  The borrower ("issuer") agrees to pay back the money (the "principal") when the life ("term") of the loan has expired. The issuer also agrees to pay interest on the principal at a stated rate. The interest is the whole point of the investment. The term of the bond can range from months to years, at the end of which period the borrower pays back the principal in full.
Here's an example: You buy a five-year municipal bond for $10,000 with an interest rate of 2.35%. Thus, you lend the municipality $10,000. Each year the municipality pays you interest on your bond in the amount of of 2.35% of $10,000, or $235. After five years the municipality pays back your $10,000. So you've made back your principal plus a profit of $1175 in interest (5 x $235).
Generally the longer the term of the bond, the higher the interest rate. If you're lending your money for a year, you probably won't get a high interest rate, because one year is a relatively short period of risk. If you're going to lend your money and not expect it back for ten years, however, you will be compensated for the higher risk you're taking, and the interest rate will be higher. This illustrates an axiom in investing: The higher the risk, the higher the return.
4. Understand the commodities market. When you invest in something like a stock or a bond, you invest in the business represented by that security. The piece of paper you get is worthless, but what it promises is valuable. A commodity, on the other hand, is something of inherent value, something capable of satisfying a need or desire. Commodities include pork bellies (bacon), coffee beans, oil, natural gas, and potash, among many other items. The commodity itself is valuable, because people want and use it.
People often trade commodities by buying and selling "futures." A future is simply an agreement to buy or sell a commodity at a certain price sometime in the future.
Futures were originally used as a "hedging" technique by farmers. Here's a simple example of how it works: Farmer Joe grows avocados. The price of avocados, however, is typically volatile, meaning that it goes up and down a lot. At the beginning of the season, the wholesale price of avocados is $4 per bushel. If Farmer Joe has a bumper crop of avocados but the price of avocados drops to $2 per bushel in April at harvest, Farmer Joe may lose a lot of money.
Joe, in advance of harvest as insurance against such a loss, sells a futures contract to someone. The contract stipulates that the buyer of the contract agrees to buy all of Joe's avocados at $4 per bushel in April.
Now Joe has protection against a price drop. If the price of avocados goes up, he'll be fine because he can sell his avocados at the market price. If the price of avocados drops to $2, he can sell his avocados at $4 to the buyer of the contract and make more than other farmers who don't have a similar contract.
The buyer of a futures contract always hopes that the price of a commodity will go up beyond the futures price he paid. That way he can lock in a lower-than-market price. The seller hopes that the price of a commodity will go down. He can buy the commodity at low (market) prices and then sell it to the buyer at a higher-than-market price.
5. Know a bit about investing in property. Investing in real estate can be a risky but lucrative proposition. There are lots of ways you can invest in property. You can buy a house and become a landlord. You pocket the difference between what you pay on the mortgage and what the tenant pays you in rent. You can also flip homes. That means you buy a home in need of renovations, fix it up, and sell it as quickly as possible. Real estate can be a profitable vehicle for some, but it is not without substantial risk involving property maintenance and market value.
Other ways of gaining exposure to real estate include collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), which are mortgages that have been bundled into securitized instruments. These, however, are tools for sophisticated investors: their transparency and quality can vary greatly, as revealed during the 2008 downturn.
Some people think that home values are guaranteed to go up. History has shown otherwise: real estate values in most areas show very modest rates of return after accounting for costs such as maintenance, taxes and insurance. As with many investments, real estate values do invariably rise if given enough time. If your time horizon is short, however, property ownership is not a guaranteed money-maker.
Property acquisition and disposal can be a lengthy and unpredictable process and should be viewed as a long-term, higher-risk proposition. It is not the type of investment that is appropriate if your time horizon is short and is certainly not a guaranteed investment.
6. Learn about mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Mutual funds and ETFs are similar investment vehicles in that each is a collection of many stocks and/or bonds (hundreds or thousands in some cases). Holding an individual security is a concentrated way of investing – the potential for gain or loss is tied to a single company – whereas holding a fund is a way to spread the risk across many companies, sectors or regions. Doing so can dampen the upside potential but also serves to protect against the downside risk.
Commodities exposure is usually achieved by holding futures contracts or a fund of futures contracts. Real estate can be held directly (by owning a home or investment property) or in a real estate investment trust (REIT) or REIT fund, which holds interests in a number of residential or commercial properties.

Part 2 Mastering Investment Basics.
1. Buy undervalued assets ("buy low, sell high"). If you're talking about stocks and other assets, you want to buy when the price is low and sell when the price is high. If you buy 100 shares of stock on January 1st for $5 per share, and you sell those same shares on December 31st for $7.25, you just made $225. That may seem a paltry sum, but when you're talking about buying and selling hundreds or even thousands of shares, it can really add up.
How do you tell if a stock is undervalued? You need to look at a company closely — its earnings growth, profit margins, its P/E ratio, and its dividend yield — instead of looking at just one aspect and making a decision based on a single ratio or a momentary drop in the stock's price.
The price-to-earnings ratio is a common way of determining if a stock is undervalued. It simply divides a company's share price by its earnings. For example, if Company X is trading at $5 per share, with earnings of $1 per share, its price-to-earnings ratio is 5. That is to say, the company is trading at five times its earnings. The lower this figure, the more undervalued the company may be. Typical P/E ratios range between 15 and 20, although ratios outside that range are not uncommon. Use P/E ratios as only one of many indications of a stock's worth.
Always compare a company to its peers. For example, assume you want to buy Company X. You can look at Company X's projected earnings growth, profit margins, and price-to-earnings ratio. You would then compare these figures to those of Company X's closest competitors. If Company X has better profit margins, better projected earnings, and a lower price-to-earnings ratio, it may be a better buy.
Ask yourself some basic Question : s: What will the market be for this stock in the future? Will it look bleaker or better? What competitors does this company have, and what are their prospects? How will this company be able to earn money in the future? These should help you come to a better understanding of whether a company's stock is under- or over-valued.
2. Invest in companies that you understand. Perhaps you have some basic knowledge regarding some business or industry. Why not put that to use? Invest in companies or industries that you know, because you're more likely to understand revenue models and prospects for future success. Of course, never put all your eggs in one basket: investing in only one -- or a very few -- companies can be quite risky. However, wringing value out of a single industry (whose workings you understand) will increase your chances of being successful.
For example, you may hear plenty of positive news on a new technology stock. It is important to stay away until you understand the industry and how it works. The principle of investing in companies you understand was popularized by renowned investor Warren Buffett, who made billions of dollars sticking only with business models he understood and avoiding ones he did not.
3. Avoid buying on hope and selling on fear. It's very easy and too tempting to follow the crowd when investing. We often get caught up in what other people are doing and take it for granted that they know what they're talking about. Then we buy stocks just because other people buy them or sell them when other people do. Doing this is easy. Unfortunately, it's a good way to lose money. Invest in companies that you know and believe in — and tune out the hype — and you'll be fine.
When you buy a stock that everyone else has bought, you're buying something that's probably worth less than its price (which has probably risen in response to the recent demand). When the market corrects itself (drops), you could end up buying high and then selling low, just the opposite of what you want to do. Hoping that a stock will go up just because everyone else thinks it will is foolish.
When you sell a stock that everyone else is selling, you're selling something that may be worth more than its price (which likely has dropped because of all the selling). When the market corrects itself (rises), you've sold low and will have to buy high if you decide you want the stock back.
Fear of losses can prove to be a poor reason to dump a stock.
If you sell based on fear, you may protect yourself from further declines, but you may also miss out on a rebound. Just as you did not anticipate the decline, you will not be able to predict the rebound. Stocks have historically risen over long time frames, which is why holding on to them and not over-reacting to short-term swings is important.
4. Know the effect of interest rates on bonds. Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship. When interest rates go up, bond prices go down. When interest rates go down, bond prices go up. Here's why:
Interest rates on bonds normally reflect the prevailing market interest rate. Say you buy a bond with an interest rate of 3%. If interest rates on other investments then go up to 4% and you're stuck with a bond paying 3%, not many people would be willing to buy your bond from you when they can buy another bond that pays them 4% interest. For this reason, you would have to lower the price of your bond in order to sell it. The opposite situation applies when bond market rates are falling.
5. Diversify. Diversifying your portfolio is one of the most important things that you can do, because it diminishes your risk. Think of it this way: If you were to invest $5 in each of 20 different companies, all of the companies would have to go out of business before you would lose all your money. If you invested the same $100 in just one company, only that company would have to fail for all your money to disappear. Thus, diversified investments "hedge" against each other and keep you from losing lots of money because of the poor performance of a few companies.
Diversify your portfolio not only with a good mix of stocks and bonds, but go further by buying shares in companies of different sizes in different industries and in different countries. Often when one class of investment performs poorly, another class performs nicely. It is very rare to see all asset classes declining at the same time.
Many believe a balanced or "moderate" portfolio is one made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Thus, a more aggressive portfolio might have 80% stocks and 20% bonds, and a more conservative portfolio might have 70% bonds and 30% stocks. Some advisors will tell you that your portfolio's percentage of bonds should roughly match your age.
6. Invest for the long run.  Choosing good-quality investments can take time and effort. Not everyone can do the research and keep up with the dynamics of all the companies being considered. Many people instead employ a "buy and hold" approach of weathering the storms rather than attempting to predict and avoid market downturns. This approach works for most in the long term but requires patience and discipline. There are some, however, who choose to try their hand at being a day-trader, which involves holding stocks for a very short time (hours, even minutes). Doing so, however, does not often lead to success over the long term for the following reasons:
Brokerage fees add up. Every time you buy or sell a stock, a middleman known as a broker takes a cut for connecting you with another trader. These fees can really add up if you're making a lot of trades every day, cutting into your profit and magnifying your losses.
Many try to predict what the market will do and some will get lucky on occasion by making some good calls (and will claim it wasn't luck), but research shows that this tactic does not typically succeed over the long term.
The stock market rises over the long term. From 1871 to 2014, the S&P 500's compound annual growth rate was 9.77%, a rate of return many investors would find attractive. The challenge is to stay invested long-term while weathering the ups and downs in order to achieve this average: the standard deviation for this period was 19.60%, which means some years saw returns as high as 29.37% while other years experienced losses as large as 9.83%.  Set your sights on the long term, not the short. If you're worried about all the dips along the way, find a graphical representation of the stock market over the years and hang it somewhere you can see whenever the market is undergoing its inevitable–and temporary–declines.
7. Consider whether or not to short sell. This can be a "hedging" strategy, but it can also amplify your risk, so it's really suitable only for experienced investors. The basic concept is as follows: Instead of betting that the price of a security is going to increase, "shorting" is a bet that the price will drop. When you short a stock (or bond or currency), your broker actually lends you shares without your having to pay for them. Then you hope the stock's price goes down. If it does, you "cover," meaning you buy the actual shares at the current (lower) price and give them to the broker. The difference between the amount credited to you in the beginning and the amount you pay at the end is your profit.
Short selling can be dangerous, however, because it's not easy to predict a drop in price. If you use shorting for the purpose of speculation, be prepared to get burned sometimes. If the stock's price were to go up instead of down, you would be forced to buy the stock at a higher price than what was credited to you initially. If, on the other hand, you use shorting as a way to hedge your losses, it can actually be a good form of insurance.
This is an advanced investment strategy, and you should generally avoid it unless you are an experienced investor with extensive knowledge of markets. Remember that while a stock can only drop to zero, it can rise indefinitely, meaning that you could lose enormous sums of money through short-selling.

Part 3 Starting Out.
1. Choose where to open your account. There are different options available: you can go to a brokerage firm (sometimes also called a wirehouse or custodian) such as Fidelity, Charles Schwab or TD Ameritrade. You can open an account on the website of one of these institutions, or visit a local branch and choose to direct the investments on your own or pay to work with a staff advisor. You can also go directly to a fund company such as Vanguard, Fidelity, or T. Rowe Price and let them be your broker. They will offer you their own funds, of course, but many fund companies (such as the three just named) offer platforms on which you can buy the funds of other companies, too. See below for additional options in finding an advisor.
Always be mindful of fees and minimum-investment rules before opening an account. Brokers all charge fees per trade (ranging from $4.95 to $10 generally), and many require a minimum initial investment (ranging from $500 to much higher).
Online brokers with no minimum initial-investment requirement include Capital One Investing, TD Ameritrade, First Trade, TradeKing, and OptionsHouse.
If you want more help with your investing, there is a variety of ways to find financial advice: if you want someone who helps you in a non-sales environment, you can find an advisor in your area at one of the following sites: letsmakeaplan.org, www.napfa.org, and garrettplanningnetwork.com. You can also go to your local bank or financial institution. Many of these charge higher fees, however, and may require a large opening investment.
Some advisors (like Certified Financial Planners™) have the ability to give advice in a number of areas such as investments, taxes and retirement planning, while others can only act on a client's instructions but not give advice, It's also important to know that not all people who work at financial institutions are bound to the "fiduciary" duty of putting a client's interests first. Before starting to work with someone, ask about their training and expertise to make sure they are the right fit for you.
2. Invest in a Roth IRA as soon in your working career as possible. If you're earning taxable income and you're at least 18, you can establish a Roth IRA. This is a retirement account to which you can contribute up to an IRS-determined maximum each year (the latest limit is the lesser of $5,500 or the amount earned plus an additional $1,000 "catch up" contribution for those age 50 or older). This money gets invested and begins to grow. A Roth IRA can be a very effective way to save for retirement.
You don't get a tax deduction on the amount you contribute to a Roth, as you would if you contributed to a traditional IRA. However, any growth on top of the contribution is tax-free and can be withdrawn without penalty after you turn age 59½ (or earlier if you meet one of the exceptions to the age 59½ rule).
Investing as soon as possible in a Roth IRA is important. The earlier you begin investing, the more time your investment has to grow. If you invest just $20,000 in a Roth IRA before you're 30 years old and then stop adding any more money to it, by the time you're 72 you'll have a $1,280,000 investment (assuming a 10% rate of return). This example is merely illustrative. Don't stop investing at 30. Keep adding to your account. You will have a very comfortable retirement if you do.
How can a Roth IRA grow like this? By compound interest. The return on your investment, as well as reinvested interest, dividends and capital gains, are added to your original investment such that any given rate of return will produce a larger profit through accelerated growth. If you are earning an average compound annual rate of return of 7.2%, your money will double in ten years. (This is known as "the rule of 72.")
You can open a Roth IRA through most online brokers as well as through most banks. If you are using a self-directed online broker, you will simply select a Roth IRA as the type of account while you are registering.
3. Invest in your company's 401(k). A 401(k) is a retirement-savings vehicle into which an employee can direct portions of his or her paychecks and receive a tax deduction in the year of the contributions. Many employers will match a portion of these contributions, so the employee should contribute at least enough to trigger the employer match.
4. Consider investing mainly in stocks but also in bonds to diversify your portfolio. From 1925 to 2011, stocks outperformed bonds in every rolling 25-year period. While this may sound appealing from a return standpoint, it entails volatility, which can be worrisome. Add less-volatile bonds to your portfolio for the sake of stability and diversification. The older you get, the more appropriate it becomes to own bonds (a more conservative investment). Re-read the above discussion of diversification.
5. Start off investing a little money in mutual funds. An index fund is a mutual fund that invests in a specific list of companies of a particular size or economic sector. Such a fund performs similarly to its index, such as the S&P 500 index or the Barclays Aggregate Bond index.
Mutual funds come in different shapes and sizes. Some are actively managed, meaning there is a team of analysts and other experts employed by the fund company to research and understand a particular geographical region or economic sector. Because of this professional management, such funds generally cost more than index funds, which simply mimic an index and don't need much management. They can be bond-heavy, stock-heavy, or invest in stocks and bonds equally. They can buy and sell their securities actively, or they can be more passively managed (as in the case of index funds).
Mutual funds come with fees. There may be charges (or "loads") when you buy or sell shares of the fund. The fund's "expense ratio" is expressed as a percentage of total assets and pays for overhead and management expenses. Some funds charge a lower-percentage fee for larger investments. Expense ratios generally range from as low as 0.15% (or 15 basis points, abbreviated "BPS") for index funds to as high as 2% (200 BPS) for actively managed funds. There may also be a "12b-1" fee charged to offset a fund's marketing expenses.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission states that no evidence exists that higher-fee mutual funds produce better returns than do lower-fee funds. In other words, deal with lower-fee funds.
Mutual funds can be purchased through nearly any brokerage service. Even better is to purchase directly from a mutual fund company. This avoids brokerage fees. Call or write the fund company or visit their website. Opening a fund account is simple and easy. See Invest in Mutual Funds.
6. Consider exchange-traded funds in addition to or instead of mutual funds. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are very similar to mutual funds in that they pool people's money and buy many investments. There are a few key differences.
ETFs can be traded on an exchange throughout the business day just like stocks, whereas mutual funds are bought and sold only at the end of each trading day.
ETFs are typically index funds and do not generate as much in the way of taxable capital gains to pass on to investors as compared with actively managed funds. ETFs and mutual funds are becoming less distinct from each other, and investors need not own both types of investment. If you like the idea of buying and selling fund shares during (rather than at the end of) the trading day, ETFs are a good choice for you.

Part 4 Making the Most of Your Money.
1. Consider using the services of a financial planner or advisor. Many planners and advisors require that their clients have an investment portfolio of at least a minimum value, sometimes $100,000 or more. This means it could be hard to find an advisor willing to work with you if your portfolio isn't well established. In that case, look for an advisor interested in helping smaller investors.
How do financial planners help? Planners are professionals whose job is to invest your money for you, ensure that your money is safe, and guide you in your financial decisions. They draw from a wealth of experience at allocating resources. Most importantly, they have a financial stake in your success: the more money you make under their tutelage, the more money they make.
2. Buck the herd instinct. The herd instinct, alluded to earlier, is the idea that just because a lot of other people are doing something, you should, too.  Many successful investors have made moves that the majority thought were unwise at the time.
That doesn't mean, however, that you should never seek investment advice from other people. Just be wise about choosing the people you listen to. Friends or family members with a successful background in investing can offer worthwhile advice, as can professional advisors who charge a flat fee (rather than a commission) for their help.
Invest in smart opportunities when other people are scared. In 2008 as the housing crisis hit, the stock market shed thousands of points in a matter of months. A smart investor who bought stocks as the market bottomed out enjoyed a strong return when stocks rebounded.
This reminds us to buy low and sell high. It takes courage to buy investments when they are becoming cheaper (in a falling market) and sell those investments when they are looking better and better (a rising market). It seems counter-intuitive, but it's how the world's most successful investors made their money.
3. Know the players in the game.  Which institutional investors think that your stock is going to drop in price and have therefore shorted it? What mutual fund managers have your stock in their fund, and what is their track record? While it helps to be independent as an investor, it's also helpful to know what respected professionals are doing.
There are websites which compile recent opinions on a stock from analysts and expert investors. For example, if you are considering a purchase of Tesla shares, you can search Tesla on Stockchase. It will give you all the recent expert opinions on the stock.
4. Re-examine your investment goals and strategies every so often. Your life and conditions in the market change all the time, so your investment strategy should change with them. Never be so committed to a stock or bond that you can't see it for what it's worth.
While money and prestige may be important, never lose track of the truly important, non-material things in life: your family, friends, health, and happiness.
For example, if you are very young and saving for retirement, it may be appropriate to have most of your portfolio invested in stocks or stock funds. This is because you would have a longer time horizon in which to recover from any big market crashes or declines, and you would be able to benefit from the long-term trend of markets moving higher.
If you are just about to retire, however, having much less of your portfolio in stocks, and a large portion in bonds and/or cash equivalents is wise. This is because you will need the money in the short-term, and as a result you do not want to risk losing the money in a stock market crash right before you need it.

Community Q&A
Question : I have low money, how I can get rich?
Answer : Expect it to take many years to get rich. Follow any or all of the steps outlined above.
Question : How do I find a broker to invest in the stock market?
Answer : There are several discount brokers online who charge a small fee for buying stock for you. There are also stockbrokers in most cities you can deal with in person. They charge a bit more, but they can offer you more personal service and help you choose stocks if you'd like.
Question : What if I have a stock in mind, but don't want a broker/brokerage firm? How do I actually purchase stock from that particular company, immediately?
Answer : Look online for the company's investor-relations department phone number. Call and ask if they offer direct stock purchases. If so, they will give you instructions for purchasing their stock. They may take a credit card, or you can write them a check.
Question : How do I start investing? Do I need an agent? Can Canadians invest in US Stocks?
Answer : Canadians -- and anyone else -- may invest in U.S. stocks. The typical way it's done is through a stockbroker. A good way to start investing is to consult with an experienced, fee-based financial advisor. A fee-based advisor does not make money by convincing you to make a particular investment.
Question : What is the difference between "ex-dividend date" and "record date"?
Answer : A "record date" is the date a dividend distribution is declared, the date at the close of which one must be the shareholder in order to receive the declared dividend. An "ex-dividend date" is typically two business days before the record date. When shares of a stock are sold near the record date of a dividend declaration, the ex-dividend date is the last day on which the seller is clearly entitled to the dividend payment.
Question : Is a financial planner really necesary?
Answer : Not if you can supply your own financial acumen and practical level-headedness. If you are not clueless about finances, or if you're personally acquainted with someone with considerable financial experience to share with you, there's no need to pay for advice. Having said that, however, the more money you want to place at risk, the more a fee-only advisor is worth hiring.
Question : How do I initiate an investment process after I open the account?
Answer : Your broker can explain the process to you. It's just a matter of telling the broker which investment(s) you want to buy. A full-service broker will help you make that decision if you'd like.
Question : I want to buy Exxon stocks right now online. What's the best way?
Answer : See Part 3 of Buy Stocks.
Question : If my company is closing, can I withdraw the 401k without any penalty?
Answer : Your 401k is probably "portable," meaning you can take it with you without penalty if you switch jobs. In your case, you shouldn't have any trouble removing the funds (assuming you plan to deposit them in another similar plan).
Question : Is it OK to connect my stock market account with my savings account?
Answer : Yes, that's a safe place to keep your money while you're not using it to buy stock.

Tips.
One of the most painless and efficient ways to invest is to dedicate a portion of each paycheck to regular contributions to an investment account. Doing so can provide some great advantages:
Dollar-cost averaging: by saving a steady amount every payday, you purchase more shares of an investment when the share price is lower and fewer shares when the price is higher. That keeps the average share price you pay relatively low.
A disciplined savings plan: having a portion withheld from your paycheck is a way of putting money away before you have a chance to spend it and can translate into a consistent habit of saving.
The "miracle" of compound interest: earning interest on previously earned interest is what Albert Einstein called "the eighth wonder of the world." Compounding is guaranteed to make your retirement years easier if you let it work its magic by leaving your money invested and untouched for as long as possible. Many years of compounding can bring astonishingly good results.

Warnings.

If you intend to hire a financial advisor, make sure s/he is a "fiduciary." That's a person who is legally bound to propose investments for you that will benefit you. An advisor who is not a fiduciary may propose investments that will mainly benefit the advisor (not you).
When looking for an advisor, choose one who charges you a flat fee for advice, not one who is paid a commission by the vendor of an investment product. A fee-based advisor will retain you as a happy client only if his/her advice works out well for you. A commission-based advisor's success is based on selling you a product, regardless of how well that product performs for you.
June 04, 2020


How to Protect Your Finances Against Market Crashes.

Economic expansions don't last forever, and eventually, the country will enter another recession. When it does, you need to protect your investments so that you can weather the storm. Assess how exposed you are to stocks and decide whether to diversify your portfolio with safer investments. Also clean up your balance sheet by reducing your debts, which will allow you to survive the recession that accompanies a stock market crash.

Method 1 Changing Your Investments.

1. Check your current investment allocation. You might have no idea what your retirement fund is currently invested in. If not, log into your account and print out the current allocation of investments, which should include the following:

stocks or stock mutual funds, bonds,real estate,money market accounts.

2. Identify why you fear a market crash. The economy goes up and down with some regularity, and when the market crashes stocks suddenly become cheaper to buy. For this reason, you might not want to diversify your portfolio. Instead, you can leave your investments as they are.

However, you might want to reduce your exposure to risk if you are nearing your retirement age or have just entered retirement. A major stock market crash could seriously cut the amount of money you have to live on.

Your tolerance for risk might also have changed. If so, then you can diversify your portfolio so that you are comfortable with your investment mix.

It’s impossible to predict exactly when the next recession will hit, so you shouldn’t move money in and out of the stock market hoping to get out just before things turn south. For example, it looked like the U.S. stock market was about to crash in late 2015. Since then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased more than 20%.

3. Consider holding money in a savings account. The easiest way to protect your investments is to get out of stocks and move the money to savings accounts. Consider the following options:

High-yield online savings accounts. These accounts will only earn about 1-2% annually, but this amount is higher than most banks offer. Your cash is liquid, so you can access it if needed. Furthermore, your deposit will be protected by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) up to $250,000 USD.

Money market accounts. These accounts are like bank accounts but with potentially higher returns. You can write checks against the money market account. Open with your bank or with a company like Scottrade or TD Ameritrade.

Certificates of Deposit. Banks and credit unions sell "CDs," which you can buy for a set sum. You are prohibited from accessing the money until the CD matures, but you will earn interest on the investment.

4. Invest in bonds. Bonds are debt. Companies, as well as governments, issue bonds to raise money, and bonds are a safer investment than stock. Consider putting more of your investment into bonds, such as the following:

Municipal bonds. State and local governments issue bonds to raise money, and in return the bonds are exempted from income taxes. You can typically earn 3% annually on bonds. They are a low-risk investment, unless the city government is on the verge of bankruptcy.

U.S. savings bonds. These bonds are very safe. With a Series I bond, you get a fixed interest rate, and your return is linked to inflation. With the Series EE bond, you earn an automatic rate of return each month.

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The U.S. government offers a fixed interest rate as well as inflation protection that’s triggered every time inflation increases.

Image titled Protect Your Finances Against Market Crashes Step 5

5. Consider annuities. An annuity is a contract with an insurer or financial services company. You make a lump sum payment, and in return you are provided with a fixed sum of money for a specific amount of time. There are several varieties of annuities, which can protect your investments in case of a market crash. For example, fixed-indexed annuities can protect your principal.

Annuities are safer than stocks, but they do have some risks. For example, the company you bought the annuity from could go bankrupt. In that situation, you will no longer be paid. You can protect yourself by doing thorough research and only buying an annuity from a company with the highest rating.

The value of an annuity can also erode with inflation, though you can buy annuities that will protect against inflation.

6. Find safer stocks. Not all companies are the same, and some are safer investments in a down economy than others. For example, you might want to get rid of low-grade stock, such as companies with a lot of debt or businesses in speculative fields like biotech that have not yet produced strong profits. In a market crash, the value of these companies will decline.

Instead, look to high-quality stocks which tend to hold up better. These companies have stable earnings and low debt.

Also consider stocks that pay dividends. Check if you can invest in a dividend exchange-traded fund.

7. Change your contributions. If you’re not yet in retirement, you should consider changing the allocation of your retirement contributions for the last few years before you stop working. Direct your contributions toward safer investments, such as those discussed above.

Changing your contributions will not change the allocation of investments already in your portfolio, so consider diversifying it.

8. Diversify your portfolio. When the market is good, riskier investments such as stocks perform well. But when the market crashes, you can expect stocks to perform poorly. Accordingly, you might want to diversity your portfolio and move some money out of stocks.

How much to move is up to you. However, you don’t have to get out of stocks entirely. Instead, you could reduce stocks to 30% of your portfolio, and have the other 70% in bonds or another safe investment. In a market crash, your losses will remain in the single digits, and you can move back into stocks after the market improves.

If you don’t know what to do, meet with a financial planner who can help you assess your risk tolerance and come up with a plan suited to your needs.

Method 2 Reducing Your Debt.

1. Identify all of your debts. In a market crash, you’ll need as much cash as possible to pay for living expenses. Accordingly, you want to decrease your debt load as much as possible now. Begin by identifying every debt you have, including any of the following:

student loan debt, credit card debt, home mortgage,car loan,personal loans.

2. Prioritize your debts. You need to make the minimum monthly payments on all debts. However, you should direct extra money to the debts you want to pay off the most. Accordingly, sit down and prioritize your debts.

For example, if you lose your job, then you can often delay payments on student loans, using either forbearance or deferment. Accordingly, you might not want to pay down your student loans first but instead focus on credit cards, which probably have a higher interest rate.

However, some debts are tied to an asset. For example, you can lose your car or home if you don’t make payment. Paying these debts off early could be a wise choice.

3. Create a budget. To free up money to contribute to debt payments, you’ll need to budget. Identify the following:

Your fixed expenses. These are bills that don’t change much month to month. Generally, fixed expenses are also for necessities, such as your rent or mortgage, health insurance premiums, car payments, and other debts.

Your discretionary spending. You can track your discretionary spending over the course of one or two months. Write down what you buy every day and note the price. Alternately, you can buy everything with a debit or credit card and then look at your monthly statement.

Reduce discretionary spending. You need your income to exceed your discretionary spending. To free up as much money as possible, reduce discretionary spending to the bare minimum by giving up gym memberships and cable TV. You can also cut out vacations, entertainment expenses, and meals in restaurants.

4. Refinance your mortgage. Mortgage rates are still low. If you have a high APR, then consider refinancing into a loan with a lower one. Avoid spending the money that you save and instead funnel it toward debt repayment.

To investigate a mortgage refinance, contact your current lender to check what rate they can offer you. Then compare their rates to others on the market.

5. Tackle credit card debt. You want a stable balance sheet when the market crashes, so you should reduce your debts as much as possible. In particular, you should pay down high-interest credit card debt. Identify a method of repayment so that you can wipe out these debts as soon as possible:

Debt avalanche. You pay the minimum monthly payment on all credit cards. Then you contribute extra money to the debt with the highest interest rate. Once you pay off that card, focus on the debt with the second highest interest rate.

Debt snowball. Another method is to pay the minimum on your monthly debts but then use extra to pay off the card with the smallest balance first. The debt snowball method is more expensive than the debt avalanche, but it can give you momentum.

Debt snowflake. This method is ideal for people who can’t budget extra money to pay down debt. Instead, you try to save a little bit of money every day and make multiple monthly payments to slowly chip away at your debt.

Method 3 Preparing for Emergencies.

1. Build an emergency fund. You’ll need money in case you lose your job or if any kind of emergency springs up. Generally, you should save at least six months of expenses. If possible, save up to twelve months of expenses.

Put money toward your emergency fund every month, even if that means you pay off debts more slowly.

If you are a retiree, then you should try to have two years of expenses saved. When the market declines, you should live off your savings instead of drawing income from your investments.

2. Buy insurance. Insurance protects you from any unforeseen accidents that will hammer you financially. In an economic downturn, you’ll need all the money you can get, and insurance will provided valuable protection in case an accident strikes. Consider the following types of insurance:

Health insurance. If your employer doesn’t offer it, you can buy it on the government exchanges. Depending on your income, you might quality for a premium subsidy and/or help with out-of-pocket expenses.

Automobile insurance. Your insurance will pay if you injure someone in an accident. Depending on the insurance, you might also be covered if someone without coverage injures you.

Disability insurance. If you are disabled before you reach retirement, you’ll need income to support you. Your employer probably offers disability insurance. If not, you can shop on your own.

Life Insurance. You can replace the income of a working spouse with a life insurance policy. Life insurance is particularly important if you have young children. Calculate how much life insurance you need at lifehappens.org.

Homeowner’s insurance. Your homeowner’s policy covers injuries that occur on your property, as well as any structural damage caused by natural disasters and other accidents.

3. Assess the stability of your job. In a market crash, many jobs will be wiped out as employers are forced to lay off workers. You need to assess whether your job is stable enough to survive a recession, or whether you should plan on getting a different job.

Look at how many people your employer laid off during the last recession. Were only a few let go? If so, your job might be secure. However, if your employer engaged in mass layoffs, then there’s no reason to assume it won’t happen again.

You can also pick up some freelance or part-time work now. That way, if the market crashes, you’ll still have some income coming in.

Tips.

Consult with a personal financial counselor to help plan, protect, and control how your finances and money in the future.


January 18, 2020


How to Protect Your Finances Against Market Crashes.

Economic expansions don't last forever, and eventually, the country will enter another recession. When it does, you need to protect your investments so that you can weather the storm. Assess how exposed you are to stocks and decide whether to diversify your portfolio with safer investments. Also clean up your balance sheet by reducing your debts, which will allow you to survive the recession that accompanies a stock market crash.

Method 1 Changing Your Investments.

1. Check your current investment allocation. You might have no idea what your retirement fund is currently invested in. If not, log into your account and print out the current allocation of investments, which should include the following:

stocks or stock mutual funds, bonds,real estate,money market accounts.

2. Identify why you fear a market crash. The economy goes up and down with some regularity, and when the market crashes stocks suddenly become cheaper to buy. For this reason, you might not want to diversify your portfolio. Instead, you can leave your investments as they are.

However, you might want to reduce your exposure to risk if you are nearing your retirement age or have just entered retirement. A major stock market crash could seriously cut the amount of money you have to live on.

Your tolerance for risk might also have changed. If so, then you can diversify your portfolio so that you are comfortable with your investment mix.

It’s impossible to predict exactly when the next recession will hit, so you shouldn’t move money in and out of the stock market hoping to get out just before things turn south. For example, it looked like the U.S. stock market was about to crash in late 2015. Since then, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased more than 20%.

3. Consider holding money in a savings account. The easiest way to protect your investments is to get out of stocks and move the money to savings accounts. Consider the following options:

High-yield online savings accounts. These accounts will only earn about 1-2% annually, but this amount is higher than most banks offer. Your cash is liquid, so you can access it if needed. Furthermore, your deposit will be protected by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) up to $250,000 USD.

Money market accounts. These accounts are like bank accounts but with potentially higher returns. You can write checks against the money market account. Open with your bank or with a company like Scottrade or TD Ameritrade.

Certificates of Deposit. Banks and credit unions sell "CDs," which you can buy for a set sum. You are prohibited from accessing the money until the CD matures, but you will earn interest on the investment.

4. Invest in bonds. Bonds are debt. Companies, as well as governments, issue bonds to raise money, and bonds are a safer investment than stock. Consider putting more of your investment into bonds, such as the following:

Municipal bonds. State and local governments issue bonds to raise money, and in return the bonds are exempted from income taxes. You can typically earn 3% annually on bonds. They are a low-risk investment, unless the city government is on the verge of bankruptcy.

U.S. savings bonds. These bonds are very safe. With a Series I bond, you get a fixed interest rate, and your return is linked to inflation. With the Series EE bond, you earn an automatic rate of return each month.

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). The U.S. government offers a fixed interest rate as well as inflation protection that’s triggered every time inflation increases.

Image titled Protect Your Finances Against Market Crashes Step 5

5. Consider annuities. An annuity is a contract with an insurer or financial services company. You make a lump sum payment, and in return you are provided with a fixed sum of money for a specific amount of time. There are several varieties of annuities, which can protect your investments in case of a market crash. For example, fixed-indexed annuities can protect your principal.

Annuities are safer than stocks, but they do have some risks. For example, the company you bought the annuity from could go bankrupt. In that situation, you will no longer be paid. You can protect yourself by doing thorough research and only buying an annuity from a company with the highest rating.

The value of an annuity can also erode with inflation, though you can buy annuities that will protect against inflation.

6. Find safer stocks. Not all companies are the same, and some are safer investments in a down economy than others. For example, you might want to get rid of low-grade stock, such as companies with a lot of debt or businesses in speculative fields like biotech that have not yet produced strong profits. In a market crash, the value of these companies will decline.

Instead, look to high-quality stocks which tend to hold up better. These companies have stable earnings and low debt.

Also consider stocks that pay dividends. Check if you can invest in a dividend exchange-traded fund.

7. Change your contributions. If you’re not yet in retirement, you should consider changing the allocation of your retirement contributions for the last few years before you stop working. Direct your contributions toward safer investments, such as those discussed above.

Changing your contributions will not change the allocation of investments already in your portfolio, so consider diversifying it.

8. Diversify your portfolio. When the market is good, riskier investments such as stocks perform well. But when the market crashes, you can expect stocks to perform poorly. Accordingly, you might want to diversity your portfolio and move some money out of stocks.

How much to move is up to you. However, you don’t have to get out of stocks entirely. Instead, you could reduce stocks to 30% of your portfolio, and have the other 70% in bonds or another safe investment. In a market crash, your losses will remain in the single digits, and you can move back into stocks after the market improves.

If you don’t know what to do, meet with a financial planner who can help you assess your risk tolerance and come up with a plan suited to your needs.

Method 2 Reducing Your Debt.

1. Identify all of your debts. In a market crash, you’ll need as much cash as possible to pay for living expenses. Accordingly, you want to decrease your debt load as much as possible now. Begin by identifying every debt you have, including any of the following:

student loan debt, credit card debt, home mortgage,car loan,personal loans.

2. Prioritize your debts. You need to make the minimum monthly payments on all debts. However, you should direct extra money to the debts you want to pay off the most. Accordingly, sit down and prioritize your debts.

For example, if you lose your job, then you can often delay payments on student loans, using either forbearance or deferment. Accordingly, you might not want to pay down your student loans first but instead focus on credit cards, which probably have a higher interest rate.

However, some debts are tied to an asset. For example, you can lose your car or home if you don’t make payment. Paying these debts off early could be a wise choice.

3. Create a budget. To free up money to contribute to debt payments, you’ll need to budget. Identify the following:

Your fixed expenses. These are bills that don’t change much month to month. Generally, fixed expenses are also for necessities, such as your rent or mortgage, health insurance premiums, car payments, and other debts.

Your discretionary spending. You can track your discretionary spending over the course of one or two months. Write down what you buy every day and note the price. Alternately, you can buy everything with a debit or credit card and then look at your monthly statement.

Reduce discretionary spending. You need your income to exceed your discretionary spending. To free up as much money as possible, reduce discretionary spending to the bare minimum by giving up gym memberships and cable TV. You can also cut out vacations, entertainment expenses, and meals in restaurants.

4. Refinance your mortgage. Mortgage rates are still low. If you have a high APR, then consider refinancing into a loan with a lower one. Avoid spending the money that you save and instead funnel it toward debt repayment.

To investigate a mortgage refinance, contact your current lender to check what rate they can offer you. Then compare their rates to others on the market.

5. Tackle credit card debt. You want a stable balance sheet when the market crashes, so you should reduce your debts as much as possible. In particular, you should pay down high-interest credit card debt. Identify a method of repayment so that you can wipe out these debts as soon as possible:

Debt avalanche. You pay the minimum monthly payment on all credit cards. Then you contribute extra money to the debt with the highest interest rate. Once you pay off that card, focus on the debt with the second highest interest rate.

Debt snowball. Another method is to pay the minimum on your monthly debts but then use extra to pay off the card with the smallest balance first. The debt snowball method is more expensive than the debt avalanche, but it can give you momentum.

Debt snowflake. This method is ideal for people who can’t budget extra money to pay down debt. Instead, you try to save a little bit of money every day and make multiple monthly payments to slowly chip away at your debt.

Method 3 Preparing for Emergencies.

1. Build an emergency fund. You’ll need money in case you lose your job or if any kind of emergency springs up. Generally, you should save at least six months of expenses. If possible, save up to twelve months of expenses.

Put money toward your emergency fund every month, even if that means you pay off debts more slowly.

If you are a retiree, then you should try to have two years of expenses saved. When the market declines, you should live off your savings instead of drawing income from your investments.

2. Buy insurance. Insurance protects you from any unforeseen accidents that will hammer you financially. In an economic downturn, you’ll need all the money you can get, and insurance will provided valuable protection in case an accident strikes. Consider the following types of insurance:

Health insurance. If your employer doesn’t offer it, you can buy it on the government exchanges. Depending on your income, you might quality for a premium subsidy and/or help with out-of-pocket expenses.

Automobile insurance. Your insurance will pay if you injure someone in an accident. Depending on the insurance, you might also be covered if someone without coverage injures you.

Disability insurance. If you are disabled before you reach retirement, you’ll need income to support you. Your employer probably offers disability insurance. If not, you can shop on your own.

Life Insurance. You can replace the income of a working spouse with a life insurance policy. Life insurance is particularly important if you have young children. Calculate how much life insurance you need at lifehappens.org.

Homeowner’s insurance. Your homeowner’s policy covers injuries that occur on your property, as well as any structural damage caused by natural disasters and other accidents.

3. Assess the stability of your job. In a market crash, many jobs will be wiped out as employers are forced to lay off workers. You need to assess whether your job is stable enough to survive a recession, or whether you should plan on getting a different job.

Look at how many people your employer laid off during the last recession. Were only a few let go? If so, your job might be secure. However, if your employer engaged in mass layoffs, then there’s no reason to assume it won’t happen again.

You can also pick up some freelance or part-time work now. That way, if the market crashes, you’ll still have some income coming in.

Tips.

Consult with a personal financial counselor to help plan, protect, and control how your finances and money in the future.


January 18, 2020

Financial Advice from Ray Dalio.

His first recommendation is to focus on savings, and to think about how many months of living expenses your savings can get you through. Savings, explains Dalio, is “freedom and security.” Savings can also provide you with opportunities. If you need to further your education, start a new business, or invest in a discounted asset, it’s easier if you have extra money. If you can accumulate enough savings to last you for the next 300 months then you can be considered financially independent. 🙂

Dalio’s next advice is about what to do with your savings. He says “it’s important to realize that the least risky investment that you can make, which is cash, is also the worst investment you can make over time. You can judge that by comparing the rate of inflation to the after tax rate of return you will earn.” So if inflation is 2%, and you’re only making 1% on your cash investment then you are actually losing purchasing power and getting poorer. “So you have to move into other assets that will do better over a longer period of time.” This is why some people like myself don’t have a cash emergency fund.

The last advice Dalio gives is a bit of surprise to me. Instead of going with the mainstream and buying an index fund, he suggests that millennials should do the opposite of what their instinct tells them to do. This can be emotionally difficult to pull off. The market reflects the crowd and your instincts will usually lead you to do the same thing the crowd is doing. But herd mentality won’t get you any further than the rest of the herd. So you want to buy when no one else wants to buy. Famous investor Warren Buffett has a similar saying: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” The best way to approach this last advice for me is to apply original research and critical thinking to your investment strategies if you want to outperform the market. But then again, a lot of people are perfectly happy earning market returns and I think indexing is an acceptable way to invest as well.

Ray Dalio created a 30 min YouTube video about his famous work, Principles for Success. He believes that dreams, reality, and determination can all help to create a successful life. And that pain plus proper reflection will give us the tools to progress. It’s an interesting watch if you’re into mental models and self development.

Motivational speaker Tony Robbins interviewed self-made billionaire Ray Dalio for his book, Money; Master the Game. Ray heads the largest hedge fund in the world, Bridgewater Associates, which has over $150 billion in assets under management.

The All Weather Portfolio.
According to Ray, “there is one thing we can see with absolute certainty: every investment has an ideal environment in which it flourishes. In other words, there’s a season for everything.” The four seasons he refers to are the following.

Inflation.
Deflation.
Rising economic growth.
Declining economic growth.

He suggests that these 4 economic environments will ultimately affect whether an asset’s price will increase or decrease. So for example, bonds should outperform in a deflationary period. Ray elaborates by saying we should have 25% of our risk spread out evenly across all 4 economic seasons. This is why he calls this investment approach “All Weather.” There are 4 seasons in the financial world and nobody knows for sure which one is coming next. So the idea is to keep a balanced portfolio that will not only make us money, but also help protect us against any surprises in the markets. Here are some assets we can allocate to each of the four categories, and keep in mind it’s possible for two of these conditions to overlap.

This is an interesting strategy. I’ve always had a bullish bias towards investing. In other words, my investment decisions are based on the idea that financial markets tend to increase with economic growth over the very long run, so I don’t try to short anything. But Ray’s approach suggests that it’s possible to make money even in environments of economic decline and deflation that doesn’t involve timing the markets.

Asset Allocation.
Using the philosophy behind his All Weather portfolio, Ray has developed the following asset allocation for the average investor which should work with his strategy.

30% stocks via low fee index funds such as the ones that track the S&P 500 index.
15% intermediate-term government bonds.
40% long-term government bonds.
7.5% gold.
7.5% commodities.
And the results speak for themselves. 🙂 This all weather portfolio has performed quite well from 1984 to 2013. During that period, the portfolio earned a positive return 26 out of 30 years. The average annual return was 9.7%. According to Tony Robbins, this portfolio never lost more than 3.95% in any given year over the past 75 years. Gold and commodities are known for being highly volatile in price, but it appears having a 15% allocation in this case might actually reduce portfolio volatility.

Over the last 20 years, Bridgwater had annualized returns of 14.7%. To put that into perspective, the S&P 500 index returned about 8.7%. During the financial crisis Bridgewater even managed to earn a positive, albeit modest return in 2008 when the general stock market was down. So when Ray Dalio speaks about investing, I’m inclined to listen. 😀 It doesn’t matter how poor people are, anyone can at least afford to pay attention.😄

The only thing I’d change about the all weather portfolio is to buy investment grade corporate bonds instead of government bonds because the yields on T-Bills and other government debt are abysmal right now. For me, the key point is to maintain a balanced asset allocation, and rebalance it once a year.

August 11, 2020

How to Prepare for Economic Collapse.


An economic collapse means a breakdown of the national economy. It would be characterized by a long-term downturn in economic activity, increased poverty and a disruption of the social order, including protests, riots and possibly violence. In some cases, this collapse would be akin to a deep recession, with society still functioning basically as normal (just with more poverty). However, it could be much worse. You should prepare for the worst, but adjust your actions to the actual severity of the collapse. You can prepare for an economic collapse by preparing financially, stocking up on the essentials, and monitoring the economic indicators.

Method 1 Preparing Your Finances.
1. Start an emergency fund. If you are living paycheck to paycheck and you lose your job during an economic collapse, you are at risk for losing your home and living in poverty. It won’t be easy to find another job and replace your income. Your goal should be to save up enough to cover six months of expenses in your emergency fund.
If you are trying to get out of debt, save up an emergency fund of $1,000 and then apply all of your extra income to your debt. Once your debt is paid off, you can divert more money into your emergency fund.
Keep your emergency fund separate from your checking account so that you are not tempted to use the money. Put it in a low-risk, interest-bearing account such as a savings account, money market account or certificate of deposit (CD).
On the other hand, a complete economic collapse would leave you unable to access your bank account, because of the crash of the financial system. Additionally, your money may become useless or extremely devalued. Consider stocking other commodities that you could barter with in an economic collapse, like alcohol, precious metals (gold and silver), and fuel.
2. Have cash on hand. Depending on where you have it, money in your emergency fund might be hard to liquidate. Bonds, for example, must be sold, and other investments like CD’s might charge fees for early withdrawal. Also, if you have a savings account with an online bank instead of a brick-and-mortar institution, it might take several days to withdraw your money. It’s important to have cash that you can access easily, either from a savings account or a cash box in your home. This can tide you over in an emergency until you can access money in your emergency fund.
3. Generate an additional source of income. Start a home business as a second source of income. If you lose your job because of an economic collapse, it might be difficult or even impossible to find another job. Having an alternative source of income can help you to keep your home and avoid poverty. Choose your business idea based on skills that you have and things that you enjoy doing. In addition, think about how likely it will be that people will require these services in an economic collapse; people may need basic necessities like clean water or food more than they need an interior decorator.
Provide services to people in their homes, such as house cleaning, home organization, meal preparation, or interior decorating.
Sell goods you produce, such as baked goods, custom clothing or jewelry.
4. Get out of debt. In a financial collapse, many people are going to lose their jobs and their homes. To prepare for this possibility, you should make a plan to get out of debt as quickly as possible. This way, if you do lose your job, you don’t have to worry about finding a way to pay these bills. The worst kind of debt to have is credit card debt. Because of the high interest rates that many people have, carrying a balance on a credit card can cost you a great deal of money.
Create a budget in order to track your income and expenses. Make a plan to have a surplus of money left over at the end of the month to apply towards your debt. This means reducing your expenses and possibly finding additional work to supplement your income.
Organize your debt so you can make a plan to pay it off. You can choose from a few different methods for planning how to pay off your debt. Whichever method you choose, it is important to stick with it.
One method is to order your debts from smallest to biggest, regardless of the interest rate, and pay off the smallest debts first. This helps you build momentum.
Another method is laddering, which means paying off the debt with the highest interest rates first. This makes the most sense mathematically because it reduces the amount of interest expense you pay in the long-term.
That said, in a true economic collapse, your creditors would likely have other things to worry about than just finding you and recovering your debts. Additionally, currency may be greatly devalued or completely useless, meaning that the amount stated on your debt balance would be equally depressed or meaningless.

Method 2 Storing the Essentials.
1. Store emergency water. In the event of an economic collapse, it is possible that your power and water supply might be interrupted, or that you will not be able to pay for these things. You will need a supply of clean water for drinking, cooking and hygiene. You can purchase bottles of water or store water in your own containers. If you run out of water, you can take steps to sanitize contaminated water.
Store at least one gallon of water per person for a minimum of three days or for up to two weeks. Don’t forget to include pets in this equation.
If you are storing water in your own containers, wash them first with dish soap and water and sanitize them with a solution of 1 teaspoon of liquid chlorine bleach to a quart of water.
To make water safe, you can boil it and filter it through a clean cloth, paper towel or coffee filter.
2. Stockpile food. The kind of food you store up for an emergency is different from the groceries you purchase each week. You need to get food that is non-perishable, does not have to be refrigerated and will provide you with the nutrition you need to survive. It may be very different from the food you are used to eating, but you will be glad you have it if you ever need it.
Purchase food that does not have to be refrigerated or frozen so you don’t have to worry about power outages. These foods include canned goods, peanut butter and beef or turkey jerky.
Include foods highly nutritious foods that are easy to store, such as dried foods, nuts, beans, canned meat and vegetables and powdered milk.
For comfort foods, avoid snack foods that will quickly expire. Instead, stock up on spaghetti and spaghetti sauce, soups, sugar and honey for canning and baking, dried fruit, coffee and tea and hard candy.
If necessary, stock pile baby food and formula, Don’t forget to include pet food if you have pets.
Keep a manual can opener with your stockpile.
3. Start a garden. A garden allows you to continually have fresh, nutritious food to supplement your emergency food supply. Also, in an economic crisis the cost of living might skyrocket. Having a garden will help you to save money on your grocery bills. It will also allow you to be self-sufficient should a food shortage result from the financial collapse.
If you don’t have a lot of space, consider starting a container garden.
If you don’t have good soil, purchase humus soil or top soil. Add peat moss, composted manure and plant fertilizers.
Choose vegetables and herbs that are easy to grow, including beans and peas, carrots, greens like lettuce, cabbage, spinach and kale, potatoes and sweet potatoes, squash, tomatoes, broccoli, berries and melons.
4. Create an emergency kit. This is a collection of household items you might need in an emergency. In the event of an economic collapse, you may not be able to shop for these supplies, so it’s important to have them on hand. Keep your supplies in a container that’s easy to carry in case you have to evacuate for some reason.
Include an extra set of car keys, blankets, matches, a multi-use tool, maps of the area, a flashlight, a battery-powered or hand-cranked radio, extra batteries, matches and a cell phone and chargers.
Have some household liquid bleach on hand for disinfecting.
Make copies of all important documents, such as proof of address, deed/lease to home, passports, birth certificates and insurance policies.
Have a list of family and emergency contact numbers, Include baby supplies such as baby food, formula, diapers and bottles.
Remember pet supplies like food, collars, leashes and food bowls.
5. Gather first aid and medical supplies. You can purchase a first aid kit or put one together yourself. Either way, make sure it has all of the necessary supplies. Include personal items such as medications for yourself and members of your family. Check the kit regularly to make sure nobody has used any of the supplies. Also, check the expiration dates and replace expired items.
Keep a first aid manual with your first aid kit.
Include dressings and bandages, such as adhesive bandages in various sizes, sterile gauze pads and a gauze roll, adhesive tape, elastic bandages and sterile cotton balls.
Add equipment and other supplies, like latex or non-latex gloves, instant cold packs, a thermometer, safety pins to fasten splints or bandages, tweezers, scissors and hand sanitizer.
Have medicines for cuts and injuries, such as antiseptic solution like hydrogen peroxide, antibiotic ointment, calamine lotion for stings or poison ivy, hydrocortisone cream for itching and an eyewash solution.
Include contact lens solution if necessary.
Other medicines to have include pain and fever medicines like aspirin, acetaminophen or ibuprofen, antihistamines for allergies, decongestants for colds, anti-nausea medicine, anti-diarrhea medicine, antacids and laxatives.

Method 3 Preserving Food.
1. Preserve meat and fish. In an economic collapse, food stores could become dangerously low. If you are going to stock up on meat and fish ahead of time, you will need to know how to cure it. This will allow it stay fresh and edible much longer. Also, it can be stored at room temperature. This will be helpful in the event of a power outage.
2. Salt cure meat. Salt curing means using salt to kill the microbes that would spoil it. For every 100 pounds of meat, you need 8 pounds of salt, 2 ounces of saltpeter and 3 pounds of sugar. Apply the cure mixture directly to the meat. For bacon, allow the meat to cure for 7 days per inch of thickness. For ham, leave the mixture on for a day and a half per pound. After curing, rub off the salt under running water and allow it to dry.
If the outdoor temperature is expected to rise above 40 degrees Fahrenheit, you will need to allow the meat to cure in a meat locker.
If the outdoor temperature is below freezing, allow an extra day for curing.
3. Smoke cure meat. Wood smoking meat not only adds flavor, but it also protects your meat from pests and spoilage. Cold smoking smokes the meat without cooking it. Hang the meat in a smoke house, light the fire and allow the meat to smoke for 10 to 20 hours. You can purchase a ready-made smoke house or plans to build your own.
Use aromatic woods to add flavor, such as hickory, mesquite, apple, cherry, pear or cranberry-apple.
Woods to avoid include all conifers, crape myrtle, hackberry, sycamore and holly.
4. Jerky meat. To make meat jerky, you can use a store-bought dehydrator. However, if you do not have one of those, you can do it in your oven by cooking it at a low temperature for several hours. Choose an inexpensive cut of meat, such as brisket. Trim the fat and slice thin strips against the grain. Season the meat with salt and pepper, and if desired, marinate it overnight with diluted barbecue sauce. Arrange the slices on a cooking grate, and put them in the oven at 170 degrees Fahrenheit for two to six hours.
Line your oven with foil for easy cleanup, Prop the oven door open with a wooden spoon to allow air to circulate.
Partially freeze meat before slicing to make it easier to slice.
5. Can fruits and vegetables. Canning involves heating food in a glass jar to remove the air and prevent spoilage. Choose from two methods to can food: water bath and pressure canning. The method you choose depends on the kind of food you want to can. Water bath canning is for jams, jellies and for acidic foods such as tomatoes, berries or cucumbers in vinegar. For main meal foods such as meat, beans and other vegetables, use pressure canning. To ensure safety, always use tried and true recipes.
6. Can with the water bath method. Gather a deep pot with a lid, a rack that fits into the pot, glass preserving jars, lids and bands and a jar lifter. Check the jars and lids for nicks and scratches which would prevent proper canning and allow spoilage to occur. Heat the jars in a pot of boiling water or in the dishwasher. Prepare your recipe and fill the hot jars with the food. Place the lids on the jars and immerse them in boiling water. Make sure the water covers the jars by 1 to 2 inches. Leave them in the water for the amount of time stated in the recipe. Remove the jars with a jar lifter and allow them to sit for 12 to 24 hours.
The lids should not flex up and down when pressed. If they do flex or if you can easily remove the lid, then the jar did not seal properly.
7. Can with pressure canning. You will need a store-bought pressure canner. As with water bath canning, check the jars for nicks and scratches, and heat them in boiling water or the dishwasher. Prepare the food according to your recipe and fill hot jars with the food. Place the jars in the canner and lock it in place. Vent the steam according to the manufacturer’s directions. Process the jars at the recommended pounds pressure stated in your recipe. Adjust for altitude. When done, remove the jars, allow them to sit for 12 to 24 hours and check the seals.

Method 4 Securing Your Home.
1. Choose your shelter type. A standalone shelter is a separate building that is designed to withstand natural disasters or man-made weapons or attacks. An internal shelter is a room within your home that has been designed to protect you from the elements or other hazards. In an economic collapse, power systems may fail and looters and scavengers may threaten your home. Take precautions to protect yourself.
2. Create two sources of electricity. One source could be solar. Hook it up to your home and then run the system discretely underground. The second source might be an underground generator. You will use this in the event of a total loss of power. Keep your energy sources hidden underground to protect them.
3. Choose the size of your shelter. The size of your shelter depends on how many people you need to protect and the size of your food stockpile. An adult needs 10 cups of water and 1,200 calories per day. In addition, each adult needs 10 cubic feet of natural atmosphere to have enough air to breathe, so you will need an air system that lets in and filters fresh air. If you are planning to stay in the shelter long-term, invest now in making it large and comfortable enough for everyone. If it is only going to be a short-term living space, you don’t have to make it as comfortable.
4. Keep the location of your shelter secret. Protect yourself from others who were not prepared and may want to take what you have. Don’t let your neighbors see you creating a shelter. You can choose a remote location, but it may be difficult to access it later. If you choose to make a safe room in your home, create a secret entrance from within your house. This way others will not be alerted to your shelter.
5. Purchase self-defense tools. Self-defense tools are generally non-lethal. They are used to fend off an attack by rendering the attacker ineffective. You can use everyday objects, such as baseball bats or keys. But these may not be as effective as tools designed for your protection.
Mace and pepper spray can be sprayed into an attacker’s face to give you time to get away.
Hand-held stun guns deliver a large electrical shock to stun the attacker.
Taser devices shoot two small probes a distance of up to 15 feet that transmit an electrical charge to the attacker.
Sonic alarms create a loud noise to let others know that you are in trouble.
6. Set up an alarm system in your home. Wireless security systems are easy and inexpensive to install and maintain. Home alert alarm systems notify you if an intruder is approaching your home. Hidden cameras allow you to see internal and exterior areas in your home where an intruder may be present. Phone dialing alarms can be installed inside or outside your home and allow you to contact authorities with the push of a button. Child monitoring alarms notify you if your child goes beyond a certain perimeter of your home.
7. Purchase weapons. Weapons can be used for either self-defense or for hunting. A crossbow is easy to shoot and aim. It’s also quiet, so it doesn’t alert people or animals to your presence. A long-range rifle allows you to hunt game from a distance. A machete can clear brush or fend off a dangerous animal. A slingshot is good for hunting small animals. Have pistols on hand and teach others to shoot, reload, shoot from cover and work as a team for protection. If you plan to have lethal weapons, be sure to train everyone who has access to them in the proper use of these weapons.
Stockpile appropriate ammunition and arrows for your weapons.
8. Gather necessary tools. Having the right tools on hand can make the difference between surviving and not surviving during any kind of disaster. You not only want to be able to protect your home, but you also need to be able to build anything you might need.
Have a bolt-cutter on hand to cut through fences and wire.
Picks, shovels, axes, chain saws and bow saws allow you dig and gather and cut wood.
Rope and paracords are essential for assembling simple and complex survival systems.
Tarps are necessary as ground covers or for weather-proofing, Stock pile nails and plywood for building and repairs.
Keep large trash bags for waste disposal, Have gasoline for fuel or a fire starter, Get a propane stove for cooking, Have a fishing rod for catching fish.

Method 5 Preparing Your Family.
1. Make sure everyone is aware of the situation. In order to prepare for economic collapse, you will have to make sure that your whole family is on board with your preparations. This means informing them in honest terms what is about to happen and telling them what they should be doing. Make sure everyone takes the situation seriously. Otherwise, they will not be mentally prepared in the event that economic collapse actually occurs.
2. Check that each family member is individually prepared. Inform each other family member of the steps you have taken to prepare your finances, essential supplies, food, and shelter. Instruct them on doing the same. Make sure each family member has also packed a bag of essentials that they can grab if they are forced to leave the house without notice. This bag should contain enough survival essentials to last between 72 hours and a week.
3. Train family members in survival skills. Your immediate family members should be aware of how to handle weapons safely, perform basic first aid, hunt or grow food, and maintain your shelter. If they don't already have these skills, take the time to instruct them thoroughly. You never know when you might have to depend on them.
4. Work with another family or group. In addition to your immediate family, consider including other family members, neighbors, or a community group (like a church group) in your preparations. Make sure that these are people who are reliable and will put in work for the benefit of the group. You will be safer and work more efficiently if you can increase the size of your group.

Method 6 Anticipating a Financial Crisis.
1. Monitor the financial markets. Calm markets tend to go up. But if the market gets choppy, meaning prices swing up and down considerably, it will likely decline. Don’t be fooled if he market soars for one day. Big ups and downs in the markets are a red flag signaling an overall decline.
2. Keep an eye on global 10 year bond yields. Global bonds are bonds that are issued in several countries at once by governments or large multi-national companies. When 10 year global bond yields drop, it is in indicator that investors are withdrawing their money to put it in safer investments. This happened before the financial crisis that happened in 2008. A significant drop in 10 year global bond yields means that investors think a financial crisis is coming.
3. Pay attention to oil prices. The fluctuation of oil prices has a macroeconomic impact. When oil prices increase, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) goes up too. The GDP is a quantitative measure of the nation’s total activity. If it is increasing, then the value of goods and services is also going up. If periods of high oil prices signal good times for the world economy, then the opposite is also true. If oil prices are on the decline, expect the GDP and the financial markets to also decline.
4. Understand the relationship between inflation and economic growth. Economic growth tends to lead to inflation. As demand increases, prices are driven up and unemployment falls. As unemployment falls, wages increase. As wages increase, people spend more, which leads to inflation of prices. Conversely, when economic activity slows down, so does inflation. Therefore, if the price of goods and services slows dramatically, it could signal a major downturn in the economy.
5. Monitor the price of commercial commodities. Commercial commodities are goods exchanged during commerce, such as gold, lumber, beef or natural gas. Changes in the prices of commodities affect the United States economy and the value of the U.S. dollar. An increase in commodity prices is correlated with an increase in inflation. Increased inflation correlates with economic growth. However, if commodity prices drop, inflation slows, which indicates economic decline.

Community Q&A.

Question : Where can I join a survival group to prepare for the potential economic collapse?
Answer : Facebook groups are the best place to start. Search for survival groups.
Question : Why would I pay off my debt first? If the economy collapses, my creditors' well being will take a backseat to my family's well being.
Answer : If you owe money to creditors, you would be putting your family at risk during such a time if you failed to keep paying back debts. Creditors are enabled by law to come and claim some of your assets if you have stopped paying them in order to protect your family's well being. In a time like this, assets are everything.
Question : Is an investment in gold and/or silver appropriate? If so, what are your recommendations, and why?
Answer : While gold used to be the standard for currency, it is still very valuable during recessions. Purchasing gold or silver can be a great way to diversify your investments.
Question : If I have a high car payment, and my IRA is large enough to pay off the vehicle, should I close the IRA and pay off the car?
Answer : Sell your expensive car and purchase an older, reliable vehicle with cash. One should never finance an item that depreciates in value, and keep your IRA.
Question : When is the economic collapse expected? In 2018 when bond yields drop?
Answer : No one really knows, but we can predict certain fluctuations (presidential elections or new terms, corporations moving out of the country, major world events, etc.) It's just best to be prepared for it with at minimum a month's supply of essentials.
Question : Should I get out of all stocks if preparing for economic collapse? Should I pay off my mortgage if I have the stock to do so?
Answer : No. Hedge your bets by keeping your portfolio 60% in stock index funds and 40% in bond index funds. I recommend Vanguard because of the low fees. Also, do not pay off your mortgage. You need cash flow. In a collapse, you will have the moral authority to defend your home with violence if necessary.
Question : With a low fixed rate mortgage, should I have my house paid off when the U.S. dollar crashes?
Answer : If you can, hold onto the cash needed to pay off your mortgage. When the dollar crashes, it won't be worth much for buying anything, but the bank still has to take it for your mortgage.
Question : What is the best way to reduce my losses on a savings account if the currency is devalued?
Answer : The best way is to not have a savings account at all. You have more liquidity keeping your money in your checking account. So take that money out of your savings account and open up another checking account with a debit card. Do not use it.
June 02, 2020