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Charlie Munger on Getting Rich, Wisdom, Focus, Fake Knowledge and More.

“In the chronicles of American financial history,” writes David Clark in The Tao of Charlie Munger: A Compilation of Quotes from Berkshire Hathaway’s Vice Chairman on Life, Business, and the Pursuit of Wealth, “Charlie Munger will be seen as the proverbial enigma wrapped in a paradox—he is both a mystery and a contradiction at the same time.”

On one hand, Munger received an elite education and it shows: He went to Cal Tech to train as a meteorologist for the Second World War and then attended Harvard Law School and eventually opened his own law firm. That part of his success makes sense.
Yet here’s a man who never took a single course in economics, business, marketing, finance, psychology, or accounting, and managed to become one of the greatest, most admired, and most honorable businessmen of our age. He was noted by essentially all observers for the originality of his thoughts, especially about business and human behavior. You don’t learn that in law school, at Harvard or anywhere else.
Bill Gates said of him: “He is truly the broadest thinker I have ever encountered.” His business partner Warren Buffett put it another way: “He comes equipped for rationality… I would say that to try and typecast Charlie in terms of any other human that I can think of, no one would fit. He’s got his own mold.”
How does such an extreme result happen? How is such an original and unduly capable mind formed? In the case of Munger, it’s clearly a combination of unusual genetics and an unusual approach to learning and life.
While we can’t have his genetics, we can try to steal his approach to rationality. There’s almost no limit to the amount one could learn from studying the Munger mind, so let’s at least start with a rundown of some of his best ideas.


Wisdom and Circles of Competence.
“Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.”
“Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom.”
Identify your circle of competence and use your knowledge, when possible, to stay away from things you don’t understand. There are no points for difficulty at work or in life.  Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.
Of course this principle relates to another of Munger’s sayings: “People are trying to be smart—all I am trying to do is not to be idiotic, but it’s harder than most people think.”
And this reminds me of perhaps my favorite Mungerism of all time, the very quote that sits right beside my desk:
“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”

Divergence.
“Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean.”
Here’s a simple axiom to live by: If you do what everyone else does, you’re going to get the same results that everyone else gets. This means that, taking out luck (good or bad), if you act average, you’re going to be average. If you want to move away from average, you must diverge. You must be different. And if you want to outperform others, you must be different and correct. As Munger would say, “How could it be otherwise?”

Know When to Fold ’Em.
“Life, in part, is like a poker game, wherein you have to learn to quit sometimes when holding a much-loved hand—you must learn to handle mistakes and new facts that change the odds.”
Mistakes are an opportunity to grow. How we handle adversity is up to us. This is how we become personally antifragile.

False Models.
Echoing Einstein, who said that “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts,” Munger said this about his and Buffett’s shift to acquiring high-quality businesses for Berkshire Hathaway:
“Once we’d gotten over the hurdle of recognizing that a thing could be a bargain based on quantitative measures that would have horrified Graham, we started thinking about better businesses.”

Being Lazy.
“Sit on your ass. You’re paying less to brokers, you’re listening to less nonsense, and if it works, the tax system gives you an extra one, two, or three percentage points per annum.”
Time is a friend to a good business and the enemy of the poor business. It’s also the friend of knowledge and the enemy of the new and novel. As Seneca said, “Time discovers truth.”

Investing Is a Perimutuel System.
“You’re looking for a mispriced gamble,” says Munger. “That’s what investing is. And you have to know enough to know whether the gamble is mispriced. That’s value investing.”  At another time, he added: “You should remember that good ideas are rare— when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet heavily.”
May the odds forever be in your favor. Actually, learning properly is one way you can tilt the odds in your favor.

Focus.
When asked about his success, Munger says, “I succeeded because I have a long attention span.”
Long attention spans allow for a deep understanding of subjects. When combined with deliberate practice, focus allows you to increase your skills and get out of your rut. The Art of Focus is a divergent and correct strategy that can help you identify where the leverage points are and apply your efforts toward them.

Fake Knowledge.
“Smart people aren’t exempt from professional disasters from overconfidence.”
We’re so used to outsourcing our thinking to others that we’ve forgotten what it’s like to really understand something from all perspectives. We’ve forgotten just how much work that takes. The path of least resistance, however, is just a click away. Fake knowledge, which comes from reading headlines and skimming the news, seems harmless, but it’s not. It makes us overconfident. It’s better to remember a simple trick: anything you’re getting easily through Google or Twitter is likely to be widely known and should not be given undue weight.
However, Munger adds, “If people weren’t wrong so often, we wouldn’t be so rich.”

Sit Quietly.
Echoing Pascal, who said some version of “All of humanity’s problems stem from man’s inability to sit quietly in a room alone,” Munger adds an investing twist: “It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait.”
The ability to be alone with your thoughts and turn ideas over and over, without giving in to Do Something syndrome, affects so many of us. A perfectly reasonable option is to hold your ground and await more information.

Deal With Reality.
“I think that one should recognize reality even when one doesn’t like it; indeed, especially when one doesn’t like it.”
Munger clearly learned from Joseph Tussman’s wisdom. This means facing harsh truths that you might prefer to ignore. It means meeting the world on the world’s terms, not according to how you wish it would be. If this causes temporary pain, so be it. “Your pain,” writes Kahil Gibran in The Prophet, “is the breaking of the shell that encloses your understanding.”

There Is No Free Lunch.
We like quick solutions that don’t require a lot of effort. We’re drawn to the modern equivalent of an old hustler selling an all-curing tonic. However, the world does not work that way. Munger expands:
“There isn’t a single formula. You need to know a lot about business and human nature and the numbers… It is unreasonable to expect that there is a magic system that will do it for you.”
Acquiring knowledge is hard work. It’s reading and adding to your knowledge so it compounds. It’s going deep and developing fluency, something Darwin knew well.

Maximization/Minimization.
“In business we often find that the winning system goes almost ridiculously far in maximizing and or minimizing one or a few variables—like the discount warehouses of Costco.”
When everything is a priority, nothing is a priority. Attempting to maximize competing variables is a recipe for disaster. Picking one variable and relentlessly focusing on it, which is an effective strategy, diverges from the norm. It’s hard to compete with businesses that have correctly identified the right variables to maximize or minimize. When you focus on one variable, you’ll increase the odds that you’re quick and nimble — and can respond to changes in the terrain.

Map and Terrain.
“At Berkshire there has never been a master plan. Anyone who wanted to do it, we fired because it takes on a life of its own and doesn’t cover new reality. We want people taking into account new information.”
Plans are maps that we become attached to. Once we’ve told everyone there is a plan and what that plan is, especially multi-year plans, we’re psychologically more likely to stick to it because coming out and changing it would be admitting we were wrong. This makes it harder for us to change our strategies when we need to, so we’re stacking the odds against ourselves. Detailed five-year plans (that will clearly be wrong) are as disastrous as overly general five-year plans (which can never be wrong).
Scrap the plan, isolate the key variables that you need to maximize and minimize, and follow the agile path blazed by Henry Singleton and followed by Buffett and Munger.

The Keys to Good Government.
There are three keys: honesty, effectiveness, and efficiency. Munger says:
“In a democracy, everyone takes turns. But if you really want a lot of wisdom, it’s better to concentrate decisions and process in one person. It’s no accident that Singapore has a much better record, given where it started, than the United States. There, power was concentrated in an enormously talented person, Lee Kuan Yew, who was the Warren Buffett of Singapore.”
Lee Kuan Yew put it this way: “With few exceptions, democracy has not brought good government to new developing countries. … What Asians value may not necessarily be what Americans or Europeans value. Westerners value the freedoms and liberties of the individual. As an Asian of Chinese cultural background, my values are for a government which is honest, effective, and efficient.”

One Step At a Time.
“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up. Discharge your duties faithfully and well. Slug it out one inch at a time, day by day. At the end of the day—if you live long enough—most people get what they deserve.”
An incremental approach to life reminds one of the nature of compounding. There will always be someone going faster than you, but you can learn from the Darwinian guide to overachieving your natural IQ. In order for this approach to be effective, you need a long axis of time as well as continuous incremental progress.

Getting Rich.
“The desire to get rich fast is pretty dangerous.”
Getting rich is a function of being happy with what you have, spending less than you make, and time.

Mental Models.
“Know the big ideas in the big disciplines and use them routinely—all of them, not just a few.”
Mental models are the big ideas from multiple disciplines. While most people agree that these are worth knowing, they often think they can identify which models will add the most value, and in so doing they miss something important. There is a reason that the “know-nothing” index fund almost always beats the investors who think they know. Understanding this idea in greater detail will change a lot of things, including how you read. Acquiring the big ideas — without selectivity — is the way to mimic a know-nothing index fund.

Know-it-alls.
“I try to get rid of people who always confidently answer questions about which they don’t have any real knowledge.”
Few things have made as much of a difference in my life as systemically removing (and when that’s not possible, reducing the importance of) people who think they know the answer to everything.

Stoic Resolve.
“There’s no way that you can live an adequate life without many mistakes. In fact, one trick in life is to get so you can handle mistakes. Failure to handle psychological denial is a common way for people to go broke.”
While we all make mistakes, it’s how we respond to failure that defines us.


Thinking.
“We all are learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. You must force yourself to consider arguments on the other side.”
“It’s bad to have an opinion you’re proud of if you can’t state the arguments for the other side better than your opponents. This is a great mental discipline.”
Thinking is a lot of work. “My first thought,” William Deresiewicz said in one of my favorite speeches, “is never my best thought. My first thought is always someone else’s; it’s always what I’ve already heard about the subject, always the conventional wisdom.”

Choose Your Associates Wisely.
“Oh, it’s just so useful dealing with people you can trust and getting all the others the hell out of your life. It ought to be taught as a catechism. … [W]ise people want to avoid other people who are just total rat poison, and there are a lot of them.”

August 07, 2020


How to Find Great Companies to Invest In.

Smart investors put their money in reputable companies and investigate new companies thoroughly before committing their money. By carefully considering the qualities of the companies you invest in and incorporating your own knowledge of the market, you can make informed decisions in the hopes of choosing stocks of good quality and value. Be aware, however, this is no small task. Mutual fund companies and the like dedicate entire teams of experts whose full-time jobs are to research and understand how to invest in companies. Be sure you have the time and inclination to do this yourself, as well as the willingness to take the risks of doing so.

Method 1 Buying What You Know.
1. Stay within your circle of competence. If you have a field of expertise, you may be best able to identify quality within that area. Experience can provide you with the insights you need to make more informed choices. For example, if you work in retail, you may be better positioned to determine if you should invest in companies like Walmart, Target, or Best Buy, than you are in evaluating the latest bio-tech company.
Having competence in a certain area doesn't have to come from workplace experience. If you're a techie who spends his time buying and reading about the latest gadgets, you can draw on the information you obtain to help you make decisions on how to invest in the technology sector.
2. Focus on a few industries or markets. These can be either your direct area of competence or other areas that you are interested in investing in. The important thing is to realize that you can't keep track of everything going on in the global economy. Large financial institutions have whole departments for doing this so don't think you can do it on your own. Instead, narrow your focus to include only a few key industries or markets.
This doesn't mean you should avoid focusing on individual companies. You should always investigate every company you plan to invest in individually.
3. Stay up to date on news within that industry. Examples of quality sources for this are online finance websites like Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal. They'll give you up-to-date information on many of the goings-on in various sectors of the economy and the World. Again, focus your energy on a few key areas and become knowledgeable on the happenings in them. Look for things like trends, mergers, acquisitions, relevant legislation changes, and any global events that may affect your chosen market.
4. Plan ahead. Identify a company that you think stands to benefit from some change or trend in the market. Look ahead for when this change will take place and move around your money to prepare to invest in the company. For example, if you think that a new product being released by your favorite tech company is going to be a huge success, you may choose to invest in the company before the rest of the world realizes this and drives up the stock price.

Method 2 Investing in Companies with Competitive Advantages.
1. Understand competitive advantages. There are some companies that manage to be consistently profitable and successful in their industry over many years. These companies have succeeded in building a "moat" around them to keep their competitors away. This distance from their competitors is also known as a competitive advantage. Competitive advantages allow these companies to make money and retain customers more easily than others. In turn, these companies are able to provide greater value and return to their shareholders.
An investment in one of these companies allows you to participate in their competitive advantage. While they may not grow as quickly as smaller companies, they often can be less likely to fail in economic downturns and can provide consistent growth throughout the years to come.
Blue-chip stocks are examples of large, successful companies with competitive advantages. These companies have provided consistent growth or dividends over many years and are listed on large stock indexes.
2. Invest in trusted brands. Think Harley Davidson, Coke, BMW. These are brand names etched in the public mind as the best in their class. These companies can raise their prices on the strength of their brands, resulting in deeper profits.These companies are so well-known and essential that they are unlikely to lose a significant amount of customers to competitors.
3. Find companies with high switching costs. When was the last time you switched banks? Or cell phone providers? These services retain customers because switching between them is more time-consuming than it's worth. Companies that have high switching costs can be expected to hold on to their customers longer than companies that don't.
4. Search for economies of scale. Companies that are able to make products and sell them at much lower prices than their competition automatically attract customers -- lots of them -- as long as quality is not compromised. In a crowded market, this is generally the result of economies of scale, a phenomenon where a large company is able to experience lower production costs solely due to its size. Walmart and and Dell have perfected this concept to a science.
5. Invest in legal monopolies. Some companies are granted legal (if temporary) monopolies by the government. Large pharmaceutical companies and manufacturing companies with patents are able to bring a truly unique product to market. Companies that own copyrights, drilling rights, mining rights, and other forms of protected property are often the sole producer or service provider in their area. Thus, these companies can raise prices without fear of losing customers, resulting in higher profits.
Be sure to check how long the company's patent or usage rights are in effect. Some of these are temporary and when they go, there's a chance the company's profit will go with them.
6. Look for opportunities for easy growth. Some companies are easily scalable. That is, their products or services with the potential to network or add more users over time. Adobe has become the de facto standard in publishing; Microsoft's Excel has done the same in spreadsheets. eBay is a great example of a user network. Each additional user to the network costs the company virtually nothing. The additional revenues that come in as the network expands go straight to the bottom line.
For a more current example, consider Netflix. As a streaming service, they make more money for each subscriber, even as their costs remain virtually the same. That way, as they gain more users they will continue to grow in profitability, assuming they don't choose to increase costs significantly.

Method 3 Evaluating Company Performance and Valuation.
1. Check the quality of management. How competent is the management running the company? More importantly, how focused are they toward the company, customers, investors, and employees? In this age of rampant corporate greed, it's always a great idea to research the management of any company you're thinking of investing in. Newspaper and magazine articles are good places to get this information.
This doesn't just mean that management has provided good financial results recently. Rather, look for indications of other important qualities like responsiveness, adaptability, capacity for innovation, and organizational ability.
2. Watch for management changes. A good leader can successfully turn around a company that many consider to be a lost cause. Watch the news and financial reports for changes in management positions, especially CEOs. If you believe in the new CEO of a company, based on your research, you may choose to invest in that company. Here, you're essentially putting your faith in the person, not the company.
3. Avoid overvalued stocks. Even a great company can be overvalued. Learn to interpret financial statements and pick stocks with fundamental analysis to find companies the market has overvalued. Know that these companies may be some of the most buzzed-about and invested in companies around, but they are still overvalued and may experience drastic declines in price once their day in the spotlight is over.
One way to determine if a stock is overpriced is to examine its price-earnings-ratio. The price to earnings ratio can usually be found in the company's stock summary on financial websites. Generally, PE ratios are between 20-25, but this varies by industry.
To evaluate a company's PE ratio, search online for the average PE ratio in the company's industry. If the P/E ratio is over the industry average, the company could be overpriced in view of its earnings.
4. Buy undervalued stocks. Undervalued stocks are those that are trading at a lower value than their financial information would indicate. These may be companies that have only started to do well recently. In these cases, the market has not yet caught up with their newfound success. To identify stocks with room to grow in value, you can also use the price-earnings ratio mentioned above and look for companies with low PE ratios compared to the industry average.
You can also look for companies with a price-to-book-value of less than 2. The price-to-book ratio is the price of the company divided by the total value of its assets minus its liabilities and intangible assets. A low ratio may indicate that the company is relatively cheap.

FAQ.

Question : How can I know a company's management?
Answer : A company's stock prospectus will list its management personnel. For suggestions on researching company management, go here: Investopedia.com/articles/02/062602.asp.

Tips.
Start thinking about everyday companies in terms of this new framework.
Learn the basics of reading financial statements. Check the profitability of companies you're interested in. Check their debt position. See if they have been growing steadily.
Visit the company’s website and other financial websites that will give you insight into the stock.
While it may be advantageous to invest in companies you know, do not limit yourself to just one or two sectors of the economy. Try to research companies in a variety of sectors. Doing so further diversifies your portfolio to better insulate it from a downturn in a single sector or company.

Warnings.
Be aware of stock tips: Whether they come from someone you see on TV or someone you meet in person, these are more often not well-researched or are even based on someone's grandiose theory about getting rich quick. They may also be provided by salesmen paid to inflate a stock's price to allow a company to raise as much capital as possible.
Jumping into buying stocks in a company without doing thorough research can be a quick way to lose your money.
Investing always carries risk. Even if you do everything right, there's no guarantee that you'll make money.
April 07, 2020