How to Use the Rule of 72

How to Use the Rule of 72.

The Rule of 72 is a handy tool used in finance to estimate the number of years it would take to double a sum of money through interest payments, given a particular interest rate. The rule can also estimate the annual interest rate required to double a sum of money in a specified number of years. The rule states that the interest rate multiplied by the time period required to double an amount of money is approximately equal to 72.
The Rule of 72 is applicable in cases of exponential growth, (as in compound interest) or in exponential "decay," as in the loss of purchasing power caused by monetary inflation.

Method 1 Estimating "Doubling" Time.
1. Let R x T = 72. R is the rate of growth (the annual interest rate), and T is the time (in years) it takes for the amount of money to double.
2. Insert a value for R. For example, how long does it take to turn $100 into $200 at a yearly interest rate of 5%? Letting R = 5, we get 5 x T = 72.
3. Solve for the unknown variable. In this example, divide both sides of the above equation by R (that is, 5) to get T = 72 ÷ 5 = 14.4. So it takes 14.4 years for $100 to double at an interest rate of 5% per annum. (The initial amount of money doesn't matter. It will take the same amount of time to double no matter what the beginning amount is.)
4. Study these additional examples:
How long does it take to double an amount of money at a rate of 10% per annum? 10 x T = 72. Divide both sides of the equation by 10, so that T = 7.2 years.
How long does it take to turn $100 into $1600 at a rate of 7.2% per annum? Recognize that 100 must double four times to reach 1600 ($100 → $200, $200 → $400, $400 → $800, $800 → $1600). For each doubling, 7.2 x T = 72, so T = 10. So, as each doubling takes ten years, the total time required (to change $100 into $1,600) is 40 years.

Method 2 Estimating the Growth Rate.
1. Let R x T = 72. R is the rate of growth (the interest rate), and T is the time (in years) it takes to double any amount of money.
2. Enter the value of T. For example, let's say you want to double your money in ten years. What interest rate would you need in order to do that? Enter 10 for T in the equation. R x 10 = 72.
3. Solve for R. Divide both sides by 10 to get R = 72 ÷ 10 = 7.2. So you will need an annual interest rate of 7.2% in order to double your money in ten years.

Method 3 Estimating Exponential "Decay" (Loss).
1. Estimate the time it would take to lose half of your money (or its purchasing power in the wake of inflation). Let T = 72 ÷ R. This is the same equation as above, just slightly rearranged. Now enter a value for R. An example.
How long will it take for $100 to assume the purchasing power of $50, given an inflation rate of 5% per year?
Let 5 x T = 72, so that T = 72 ÷ 5 = 14.4. That's how many years it would take for money to lose half its buying power in a period of 5% inflation. (If the inflation rate were to change from year to year, you would have to use the average inflation rate that existed over the full time period.)
2. Estimate the rate of decay (R) over a given time span: R = 72 ÷ T. Enter a value for T, and solve for R. For example.
If the buying power of $100 becomes $50 in ten years, what is the inflation rate during that time?
R x 10 = 72, where T = 10. Then R = 72 ÷ 10 = 7.2%.
3. Ignore any unusual data. If you can detect a general trend, don't worry about temporary numbers that are wildly out of range. Drop them from consideration.

Method 4 Derivation.
1. Understand how the derivation works for periodic compounding.
For periodic compounding, FV = PV (1 + r)^T, where FV = future value, PV = present value, r = growth rate, T = time.
If money has doubled, FV = 2*PV, so 2PV = PV (1 + r)^T, or 2 = (1 + r)^T, assuming the present value is not zero.
Solve for T by taking the natural logs on both sides, and rearranging, to get T = ln(2) / ln(1 + r).
The Taylor series for ln(1 + r) around 0 is r - r2/2 + r3/3 - ... For low values of r, the contributions from the higher power terms are small, and the expression approximates r, so that t = ln(2) / r.
Note that ln(2) ~ 0.693, so that T ~ 0.693 / r (or T = 69.3 / R, expressing the interest rate as a percentage R from 0-100%), which is the rule of 69.3. Other numbers such as 69, 70, and 72 are used for easier calculations.
2. Understand how the derivation works for continuous compounding. For periodic compounding with multiple compounding per year, the future value is given by FV = PV (1 + r/n)^nT, where FV = future value, PV = present value, r = growth rate, T = time, and n = number of compounding periods per year. For continuous compounding, n approaches infinity. Using the definition of e = lim (1 + 1/n)^n as n approaches infinity, the expression becomes FV = PV e^(rT).
If money has doubled, FV = 2*PV, so 2PV = PV e^(rT), or 2 = e^(rT), assuming the present value is not zero.
Solve for T by taking natural logs on both sides, and rearranging, to get T = ln(2)/r = 69.3/R (where R = 100r to express the growth rate as a percentage). This is the rule of 69.3.
For continuous compounding, 69.3 (or approximately 69) gives more accurate results, since ln(2) is approximately 69.3%, and R * T = ln(2), where R = growth (or decay) rate, T = the doubling (or halving) time, and ln(2) is the natural log of 2. 70 may also be used as an approximation for continuous or daily (which is close to continuous) compounding, for ease of calculation. These variations are known as rule of 69.3, rule of 69, or rule of 70.
A similar accuracy adjustment for the rule of 69.3 is used for high rates with daily compounding: T = (69.3 + R/3) / R.
The Eckart-McHale second order rule, or E-M rule, gives a multiplicative correction to the Rule of 69.3 or 70 (but not 72), for better accuracy for higher interest rate ranges. To compute the E-M approximation, multiply the Rule of 69.3 (or 70) result by 200/(200-R), i.e., T = (69.3/R) * (200/(200-R)). For example, if the interest rate is 18%, the Rule of 69.3 says t = 3.85 years. The E-M Rule multiplies this by 200/(200-18), giving a doubling time of 4.23 years, which better approximates the actual doubling time 4.19 years at this rate.
The third-order Padé approximant gives even better approximation, using the correction factor (600 + 4R) / (600 + R), i.e., T = (69.3/R) * ((600 + 4R) / (600 + R)). If the interest rate is 18%, the third-order Padé approximant gives T = 4.19 years.
To estimate doubling time for higher rates, adjust 72 by adding 1 for every 3 percentages greater than 8%. That is, T = [72 + (R - 8%)/3] / R. For example, if the interest rate is 32%, the time it takes to double a given amount of money is T = [72 + (32 - 8)/3] / 32 = 2.5 years. Note that 80 is used here instead of 72, which would have given 2.25 years for the doubling time.


FAQ.
Question : When would I need to use the rule of 72?
Answer : It's a handy shortcut when considering compounded, monetary gains or losses. For example, you might want to know how long it would take for invested money to double in value, given a specific rate of interest.
Question : How do I calculate compound interest?
Answer : The formula for annual compound interest (A) is: P [1 + (r / n)]^(nt), where P=principal amount, r = the annual interest rate as a decimal, n = the number of times the interest is compounded per year, and t = the number of years of the loan or investment.
Question : What is APY for an APR of 3.5% compounded?
Answer : It depends on how often the interest compounds: annually, semi-annually, quarterly, monthly or daily.

Tips.

Let the Rule of 72 work for you by starting to save now. At a growth rate of 8% a year (the approximate rate of return in the stock market), you would double your money in nine years (72 ÷ 8 = 9), quadruple your money in 18 years, and have 16 times your money in 36 years.
The value of 72 was chosen as a convenient numerator in the above equation. 72 is easily divisible by several small numbers: 1,2,3,4,6,8,9, and 12. It provides a good approximation for annual compounding at typical rates (from 6% to 10%). The approximations are less exact at higher interest rates.
You can use Felix's Corollary to the Rule of 72 to calculate the "future value" of an annuity (that is, what the annuity's face value will be at a specified future time). You can read about the corollary on various financial and investing websites.

Warnings.
Let the rule of 72 convince you not to take on high-interest debt (as is typical with credit cards). At an average interest rate of 18%, semiretired credit card debt doubles in just four years (72 ÷ 18 = 4), quadruples in eight years, and becomes completely unmanageable after that.

April 10, 2020

How to Build a Diversified Portfolio

How to Create a Profitable Property Portfolio.

You've been thinking about investing in property. Although investing in real estate can be an overwhelming thought for some people, it can also bring great rewards. You may want to consider investing as a way to create cash flow or build a nice nest egg. Becoming profitable in investing requires a certain degree of skill and know-how, but once you stick your toe in the water, you may become hooked.

Method 1 Planning and Researching.
1. Know why you’re buying. Before you buy an investment property, you need to consider your investment strategy. Put some thought into what type of investment interests you and meets your needs. Perhaps you would like to diversify your holdings besides stocks and bonds. Maybe you would just like to build your wealth or improve your cash flow. Whatever your reasons are for wanting to invest, it is good to be clear on them before you start. A few common reasons for investing in real estate include the following:
You want to increase your current income. Getting a monthly rent check, for example, can give your income a boost.
You're interested in capital gain — buying a property and later profiting from its sale.
You want to take advantage of the tax write-offs that come with real estate investments.
2. Learn about the various types of real estate investments. Ask yourself how much time you are willing to invest in managing the property, and whether you have the necessary skills to manage the property. Different types of investments have different risks and rewards, so it's important to consider which type of investment best meets your needs. Consider these investment choices:
Raw land investments. Raw land requires little management and has the potential for big appreciation if it's in an area that becomes attractive to developers. However, there is limited cash flow from this investment through leasing to farmers/ranchers short term, mineral royalties if included in purchase, or appreciation. Also, government restrictions on how the land may be used can impact its value.
Residential real estate investments. Fixing up a residence and "flipping" it is a popular type of investment. The profitability of this type of investment is dependent on the state of the local housing market; location is very important.
Commercial real estate investments. Investing in commercial real estate, such as an apartment building, office building, or retail building, can yield a steady flow of cash, since you'll be getting a regular rent check from your tenants. However, the property requires significant upkeep to make sure it's up to code. You also run the risk of getting bad tenants who damage the property or do not pay rent on time.
3. Decide whether to flip or hold the property. "Flipping" generally applies to residential properties that are purchased, improved, and sold for higher price. Most real estate requires long term holding, and is not conducive to short-term trading. When considering what type of investment to make, determine which situation works best for you.
Consider whether you need additional income now or in the future.
Review your short- and long-term financial goals and if bringing in income now makes sense for you.
Factor in your income tax bracket and how that could be adversely affected by bringing in more income.
Consider the real estate market and if it is rising or falling at this time.
Evaluate your financial situation and see if you have other income that you can tap into if your rental properties become vacant.
Think about your available time and capabilities to manage or improve properties. Using third parties for such services may decrease expected return.
4. Obtain statistics on the town in which you are considering investing. Check the local state government website about the area you are targeting to see how it compares to other locations. It is important to have as much information and knowledge as possible on property investing before you dive in.
Find out the local median income.
Research the population growth of the area.
See what the unemployment statistics are in the area.
Check to see if the community is continuing to grow.
Find out what the real estate taxes are compared to nearby towns.
See if there is a supply and demand of rentals in the area.
Check out the schools to see how good they are.
5. Research online or take a course. A lot of research can be done online, but you may also check your local directory and sign up for a reputable real estate investment course or seminar. Make sure you bring some paper and a pen so you can jot down notes as you listen to the experts speak.
6. Work with a local realtor, property investor, or developer who also invests in real estate. Someone who has been investing on his own will know the pitfalls from his own first hand experience. A realtor with substantial knowledge in investing can teach you as you go along and help make you feel more comfortable with the process. However, remember the money you are investing is yours, not the realtors, so trust your intuition.

Method 2 Pinpointing your Property Needs.
1. Decide on your location. When you are searching for your investment area, look for a place that has clear signs of growth and economic stability. If you aren’t familiar with the area, take a drive around the town or city and get to know it. Check to see if there is adequate shopping and amenities close by. If you like the area and what it has to offer, chances are your renters will too.
2. Pick the right property. See if the properties you are interested in have desirable features, like a great view or ample parking. If so, take that into consideration. There are other issues to consider when picking your property, as well.
If you're deciding between investing in a house or an apartment, keep in mind that houses seem to have a better capital growth rate and apartments tend to have a better rental yield.
Also, the quality of the neighborhood in which you buy will most likely influence the type of tenants you attract. For example, if you buy near a college, you may be renting to students. There is a possibility of vacancies in the summer when the students return home.
Make sure you find out what the property taxes are. Take into consideration that high property taxes may not be such a bad thing if the property is in an excellent area and suited for long-term tenants.
Check to see if the area has any criminal activity. Go to the local police department to learn about the specific area you are interested in. Things to ask about might include vandalism, gang activity or any recent serious crimes. You have a better chance of finding out the facts from the police department, than from the person selling you the property.
Make sure the property isn't in a natural disaster zone. The insurance on the property can get pricey if you are in a questionable area so it is worth checking into. Many property owners are underinsured for natural disasters which can lead to devastating property loss in the event of a major storm or earthquake.
3. Have your property inspected by a professional inspector. You want to make sure the property is in good shape and has up-to-date repairs. You are looking for a property that, with a few minor repairs, will attract tenants who are willing to pay higher rents. In addition, find a contractor who you trust to give you the right advice on any repairs that may be required, especially for older properties. There are some things that you can check yourself, however.
Check the drains to make sure there are no problems with flooding.
Open and close all the windows to make sure they are in working order.
Turn on all the faucets to make sure they are working.
Light a fire in the fireplace to see if it's working.
Flush the toilets to make sure they flush properly.
Open the electrical panel and make sure there are no loose wires.
Turn on the heat and air conditioning to see if they work.
Make sure there is no basement moisture as this can be a sign that there is a more serious problem.
Pull the carpet back to see if there are hardwood floors underneath.
4. Know your target tenant. If you're investing in commercial real estate, your choice of tenant should influence the type of property you buy and where you decide to buy it. For example, families with children will potentially be interested in different amenities than young, single people.
See if the property is near any schools.
Check to see if there are any parks in the neighborhood.
See if the shops and cafes are within walking distance.
Find out how close the transportation options are.

Method 3 Examining the Finances.
1. Check into your credit history. Make a plan to get your credit in better shape if necessary. Having a good credit score will help you secure a loan with better terms. If your credit is compromised, check your local listings for agencies or nonprofit organizations that can help you clean it up.
2. Decide how you will finance your property. There are several ways to begin investing in your property portfolio. You may consider selling an asset or refinancing a property to get the funds. If you're investing in raw land, it's common to get financing from the seller. You may also choose to take out bank loans to finance your property.
If you have the money, you can pay all cash, or you can put down a percentage and get a loan for the remaining amount.
There are different loan requirements depending on the bank and your financial history.
3. Visit with a mortgage broker or your bank. Find out how much money you can afford to borrow responsibly for your investment. The quickest way to find out if you can afford a loan is to ask the bank. If you get a "no" from your bank, then consider trying another one as each bank is different in their approach. You may also consider looking into a credit union or a smaller bank to get your loan through.
4. Find properties that produce positive cash flow. Unless the property has good cash flow, there is really no reason to consider purchasing it. Examine the financials on the property to make sure it is supplying a good source of income. The rent you receive from your tenants should be enough to pay all of your expenses, including your mortgage payment, utilities, property taxes, and insurance.
This excludes raw land investments, which generally yield no income unless leased for farming or another purpose.
5. Examine your investment expenses. A common mistake first time investors make is underestimating their expenses. Rental buildings are always needing touch ups and repairs. There are several areas of expense to factor in when considering your purchase. The amounts will vary depending on the property.
Water and sewer, Garbage, Utilities, Legal fees and accounting, Evictions, Vacancies, Scheduled maintenance.
6. Consider hiring a property manager. You may want to factor in a salary for a property manager if you don’t have the personality, skills, and availability to manage your own property. There are many benefits to hiring a property manager.
The manager advertises and rents for you and will show your property when vacancies arise.
The manager meets with prospective tenants and handles all of your lease agreements.
The manager collects the rent from the tenants and performs the move-in and move-out inspections.
The manager deals with all the tenants complaints.
The manager serves legal notices in the case of a dispute and starts the eviction process if necessary.
The manager usually has a list of reliable contractors that he or she has used before.

FAQ.

Question : How would I stay up to date on pertinent laws, regulations, and real estate terminology?
Answer : Become a member of an apartment owners association. If they are very large, they will send you magazines that have all the new problems that laws are causing for home owners and what they need to do to avoid these problems.

Tips.
Take your time doing the research. Rushing into a property purchase without significant knowledge may bring unwanted results.
If you are considering buying with a partner, make sure you have a proper partnership or joint venture agreement.
Don’t be afraid to walk away if the deal isn't working out.
Stay up to date with pertinent laws, regulations and real estate terminology.
Understand the risk you are taking when becoming a real estate investor. Success is not always guaranteed.
Find a mentor, lawyer or a supportive friend that has experience in investing to bounce your ideas off of.

April 01, 2020